Why European inertia is not good for the Middle East

The story of the last year has been one of acute international failure over Gaza. Israel has conducted a genocide unhindered by any international flak that might have forced its belligerent prime minister or his extremist government coalition to think twice.

Only the international legal system threatens to put a brake on Israeli actions. The International Court of Justice has ruled on the plausible danger of genocide in Gaza and the illegality of Israel’s occupation. The International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor is seeking arrest warrants against Israeli and Hamas leaders.

This failure of accountability has energized Israeli actions in Lebanon, as it plays out its Gaza playbook to the north. Uber-confident following the shameful silence of its key allies, Benjamin Netanyahu had little hesitation in opening up the northern front. The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah was just the latest in a whole batch of moves designed to stoke the fires of conflict.

If anyone was in any doubt about the brazen contempt Netanyahu has for his allies, his routine mockery of the Biden administration is Exhibit 1. Once again last week, the White House claimed Israel was willing to agree to a 21-day ceasefire as called for by the US, the EU, the UK and others. As soon as Netanyahu got off his plane in New York, he wrecked all hopes of any such deal. He has done this on Gaza routinely.

The US has failed to hold its truculent and unruly ally to account. But why are the European states being so timid?

The reaction of most European countries to the escalation over Lebanon has centered on two priorities: evacuating their citizens and expressing concern. Finally, they have largely called for de-escalation, at best a ceasefire.

Even the evacuation of nationals has been a dubious effort. Many still languish under bombardment in Lebanon.

As for the expressions of concern, this is the same disease that has beset policy toward the obliteration of Gaza. It is utterly irrelevant, designed to fill the gaping policy void. A few states stand out for ducking this trend, with Spain, Ireland and Norway speaking out. Spain condemned Israel’s attack on Hezbollah’s paging devices.

What is also noticeable is that the latest EU statement on Lebanon made no mention of Gaza. Israel is winning the argument, as it did with the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, on decoupling Gaza from Lebanon. This is naive. A ceasefire in Gaza and one between Israel and Hezbollah would be inextricably linked. A Gaza ceasefire would make one in the north far easier. The reality is that the Israeli leadership does not want one on either front. It believes that it can deliver a military victory on both fronts, while also cracking down and even annexing the West Bank.

The other feature is that the Europeans make reference to UN Security Council resolutions on Lebanon, notably 1701. The Palestinians, meanwhile, have long since given up hope that any resolutions dealing with their occupation will get referenced, let alone implemented.

One explanation for this European malaise is that the continent’s politicians and publics are still fixed on local, internal issues, with isolationism dominant. They are unwilling to devote serious attention to issues outside their immediate geographical interest. The EU system is engulfed in choosing its next 26 commissioners, triggering power plays in Brussels. Sweden is focused on burgeoning gang crime, Italy on immigration. Belgium is trapped in postelection negotiations. Austria has also just had elections. Baltic and Eastern European states fret about Russia. Poland is handling calamitous floods. The honeymoon for the new British Labour government has ended early.

The one arguable exception to European inertia is France. As ever, its leaders treat Lebanon as if it was of vital French interest. Yet, as was seen after the 2020 Beirut explosion, President Emmanuel Macron has little influence despite grandiose statements. France partnered the US in leading the call for a three-week ceasefire, but Netanyahu just dismissed it.

The US has failed to hold its truculent and unruly ally to account. But why are the European states being so timid?

Chris Doyle

Are European leaders right to be disengaged? On one level, one wonders what they could do. Unity is lacking. But a coalition of major European powers including Germany, France and the UK could lead the way. Britain today has a less Europhobic government. Many Lebanese and Syrians are leaving Lebanon and some will make their way to Europe.

Security should also be a major concern. After Israel assassinated Nasrallah’s predecessor as Hezbollah leader in 1992, the group’s response was to launch attacks against soft Israeli and Jewish targets in Turkiye and Argentina. This may be its option again now, with European targets on the agenda.

But it still feels like these leaders are tiptoeing nervously around an erupting volcano, hoping they do not get caught up in the lava flow. All the talk has been of trying to avoid a war when, for some time, those on the ground have been saying “we are in a war” and the Israeli leader was indicating that he wanted one, including on multiple fronts. Now even the blinkered Europeans cannot ignore this grave reality. They need to step up before Lebanon becomes the next Gaza.

• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech