Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?

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Updated 30 September 2024
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Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?

Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?
  • Far from deepening sectarianism, Israeli strikes are creating solidarity between Lebanon’s factions, says health minister
  • Dr. Firass Abiad accuses Israel of refusing to negotiate an end to conflict and of committing war crimes by killing health personnel

DUBAI: Hassan Nasrallah, the longstanding Hezbollah leader who was killed in an Israeli strike on his Beirut stronghold over the weekend, was the author of deep divisions in Lebanon, which have long threatened to drag the nation back into the mire of civil war.

Since the latest hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah suddenly escalated in mid-September, reports have circulated on social media about flare-ups in sectarian tensions in different parts of Lebanon as a result of mass displacement of people from the south.

Appearing on the Arab News current affairs program “Frankly Speaking,” Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s minister of public health, insisted the conflict had not created a sectarian split in society, as even many Shiites, who form Hezbollah’s support base, now appear to oppose the militia’s actions.

“There’s clearly a lot of people in Lebanon who oppose the politics and what Hezbollah is doing. There’s no denying that, if you talk to people,” Abiad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen.

“This is across the board. This is not sectarian, (it’s) among all sects, including Shittes, you have people who oppose Hezbollah.”




Dr. Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s minister of public health, insisted the conflict had not created a sectarian split, even as many Shiites appear to oppose Hezbollah’s actions. (AN photo)

At the same time, however, Abiad said Israel’s strikes on Lebanon had created a spirit of solidarity across Lebanon’s multiconfessional society, similar to the sympathy generated across the Arab world for the Palestinians — even among those who oppose Hamas — in the wake of Israel’s assault on Gaza.

“What Israel is doing by these indiscriminate attacks, when they attack a Christian or even when they are attacking Shiite areas … this will only increase the feeling of solidarity with the community where Hezbollah is based,” he said.

“We’ve seen this also with Gaza. If you look at the Arab world, the support for Hamas is not high. But when people see the atrocities, the carnage that Israel is perpetrating in Gaza, I think that, unanimously, a lot of people have a lot of sympathy with the people of Palestine.

“And Israel, in the way it is conducting its war on Lebanon, has fostered this environment of solidarity.”

Abiad said this sense of solidarity was evident on Sept. 16 and 17, when Hezbollah communication devices, including pagers and walkie-talkies, exploded simultaneously in a coordinated attack blamed on Israel that killed at least 32 and injured more than 3,000.

“You could see this on the day of the attack on the explosive devices,” said Abiad. “We at the Ministry of Health were sending patients all across the country because we had to have a full response from all hospitals.

“And even when we were sending patients into hospitals that were in areas that are politically, or from a religious perspective, diametrically opposite to Hezbollah, the people who were injured were welcomed, they were cared for, they were given attention.




An ambulance brings injured Lebanese to the AUB Medical Center, on Sept. 17 after beeper blasts targeted Hezbollah operatives. (File/AFP)

“This is something that Israel has repeatedly failed to understand; that its indiscriminate targeting or its dehumanization of all, for example, Arabs, or communities, would only lead to more sympathy with the ‘said’ enemies.”

On Saturday, Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah had been killed in an Israeli strike on the group’s Dahiyeh stronghold in Beirut. The attack follows days of Israeli strikes across Lebanon, which, as of Saturday, had left 1,030 people — including 156 women and 87 children — dead.

Hezbollah began rocketing northern Israel last October in solidarity with the Palestinian militant group Hamas, whose Oct. 7 assault on southern Israel triggered the war in Gaza. Israel retaliated by mounting strikes on Hezbollah targets.

Since mid-September, Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets across the country have rapidly escalated. However, the roots of the conflict run deeper than last October. The two sides have been locked in an intermittent confrontation since the Lebanese civil war.

Hezbollah was formed during Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon. Major escalations occurred in 1993, 1996, and particularly in 2006, when a full-scale war erupted, causing significant destruction in Lebanon.

Hezbollah has since strengthened its military capabilities, while maintaining its role in Lebanese politics. Tensions continued, with periodic border clashes, as the group has evolved into a key player in the broader Israel-Iran proxy conflict.

Israel withdrew its troops from Lebanon in 2000, creating the possibility of stability for Lebanon. However, territorial disputes remained, which Hezbollah exploited to build support and to justify continued resistance to Israel.

Does a share of the blame for the continuation of hostilities, therefore, belong to Hezbollah?

“No, that’s the exact opposite,” said Abiad. “If you go back to the UN resolutions — especially 1701. In 1701, it was very clear that, first of all, Israel has to withdraw from all the areas in Lebanon, which did not happen. And up till now, Israel still occupies Lebanese territory.”




Medical staff at a hospital care for victims after the Israeli military struck Hezbollah targets in Beirut's southern suburb last week. (File/AFP)

UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted in 2006, called for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, ending the Lebanon War. It demanded the disarmament of Hezbollah, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, and the deployment of Lebanese and UN peacekeeping troops to stabilize the region and prevent future conflict.

“Secondly, it very clearly mentioned that Israel should not violate Lebanese airspace, which also did not happen; Israel has been violating Lebanese airspace continuously since the 2000 partial withdrawal from Lebanon,” said Abiad.

“So, indeed, unfortunately, these actions by Israel gave the pretext for Hezbollah to continue today what it is doing now. But let’s be very clear, Israel didn’t fulfill that part of 1701. And even now, Lebanon is saying we are ready to abide by the UN Security Council resolutions.”

One particularly irksome issue relates to the Shebaa Farms — a dispute that centers on a small strip of land claimed by Lebanon but occupied by Israel since 1967.

While Israel and the UN consider it part of Syria’s Golan Heights, Lebanon argues the area is Lebanese, fueling tensions, especially involving Hezbollah, over its sovereignty.

Given what is now occurring in Lebanon, does Abiad believe continuing the Shebaa Farms dispute with Israel has been worthwhile? Surely a negotiated deal would have been a far better option?

“But that depends on the other party accepting a negotiation,” said Abiad. “And, up to now, it has been very clear that Israel is not interested in a negotiated outcome.”

Whoever is ultimately to blame for prolonging the conflict, the result today is mass displacement, civilians killed, thousands injured, and public health system under extreme strain.

The ongoing conflict has created a massive humanitarian crisis, with widespread displacement across the country. According to the Lebanese government’s estimates, nearly 500,000 people have been forced to flee their homes due to escalating violence.

Abiad highlighted the magnitude of the displacement from the south. “Before the attacks, the number released by the disaster management side was 130,000 displaced,” he said.

“Remember that by that time, there was an escalation of hostilities by Israel, and the populations were internally displaced still into southern areas.”

Abiad said the Lebanese government has established 400 public shelters, which currently house about 70,000 people. However, he said the total number of displaced people is far higher.

“We estimate that usually, from our past experience in the 2006 war, the number of people, whether they are living with friends, family, in homes they rented, or even across the border into neighboring countries, is four to five times as many as there are in shelters,” he said.

“And that’s why we really believe that the tally of people who have been displaced is probably around 400,000 to 500,000.”

The pressure on hospitals, in particular, is reaching breaking point.

“The daily tally of casualties keeps rising, as hospitals get overwhelmed with casualties,” said Abiad. “Can we continue all this? The answer is we are working at nearly full capacity, I would say. And it is becoming more tough as the war drags on.”




“There’s clearly a lot of people in Lebanon who oppose ... what Hezbollah is doing. There’s no denying that, if you talk to people,” Dr. Firass Abiad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen. (AN photo)

He added: “I think the most challenging would be fuel. I think that, concerning nurses, hospital beds, medical supplies, medications, as I said, we have been stocking up on our inventory. But really, fuel is going to be a critical issue.

“Hospitals, ambulances, they all require fuel to function. Now we have been increasing the renewable-energy budgets in our hospitals — 15 of our public hospitals now have renewable energy, constituting almost 40 percent of their energy requirements.

“Almost 200 of our primary health care centers now completely can work or function on renewable energy. But clearly I would say fuel is going to be critical if there is a further escalation.”

On top of this, Abiad accused Israel of deliberately targeting medical personnel — something he says constitutes a war crime.

“Do we consider this a war crime? Of course, we consider this a war crime,” said Abiad, adding that this was not just the view of the Lebanese government but echoed by international legal bodies.

“When we listen to the International Court of Justice, these are the experts on what is international humanitarian law and whether it has been violated. So these are the experts telling us that what Israel is doing constitutes war crimes.”
 

 


UK signs deals with Iraq aimed at curbing irregular immigration

Britain’s Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Iraq’s Minister of Interior Abdul Amir Al-Shimmari, front right, shake hands.
Britain’s Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Iraq’s Minister of Interior Abdul Amir Al-Shimmari, front right, shake hands.
Updated 27 min 2 sec ago
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UK signs deals with Iraq aimed at curbing irregular immigration

Britain’s Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Iraq’s Minister of Interior Abdul Amir Al-Shimmari, front right, shake hands.
  • “Organized criminals operate across borders, so law enforcement needs to operate across borders too,” Cooper said
  • Pacts include a joint UK-Iraq “statement on border security” committing both countries to work more closely in tackling people smuggling and border security

LONDON: The UK government said Thursday it had struck a “world-first security agreement” and other cooperation deals with Iraq to target people-smuggling gangs and strengthen its border security.
Interior minister Yvette Cooper said the pacts sent “a clear signal to the criminal smuggling gangs that we are determined to work across the globe to go after them.”
They follow a visit this week by Cooper to Iraq and its autonomous Kurdistan region, when she met federal and regional government officials.
“Organized criminals operate across borders, so law enforcement needs to operate across borders too,” she said in a statement.
Cooper noted people-smuggling gangs’ operations “stretch back through Northern France, Germany, across Europe, to the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and beyond.”
“The increasingly global nature of organized immigration crime means that even countries that are thousands of miles apart must work more closely together,” she added.
The pacts include a joint UK-Iraq “statement on border security” committing both countries to work more closely in tackling people smuggling and border security.
The two countries signed another statement on migration to speed up the returns of people who have no right to be in the UK and help reintegration programs to support returnees.
As part of the agreements, London will also provide up to £300,000 ($380,000) for Iraqi law enforcement training in border security.
It will be focused on countering organized immigration crime and narcotics, and increasing the capacity and capability of Iraq’s border enforcement.
The UK has pledged another £200,000 to support projects in the Kurdistan region, “which will enhance capabilities concerning irregular migration and border security, including a new taskforce.”
Other measures within the agreements include a communications campaign “to counter the misinformation and myths that people-smugglers post online.”
Cooper’s interior ministry said collectively they were “the biggest operational package to tackle serious organized crime and people smuggling between the two countries ever.”


Some Lebanon hospitals look set to restart quickly after ceasefire, WHO says

Some Lebanon hospitals look set to restart quickly after ceasefire, WHO says
Updated 28 November 2024
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Some Lebanon hospitals look set to restart quickly after ceasefire, WHO says

Some Lebanon hospitals look set to restart quickly after ceasefire, WHO says
  • “Probably some of our hospitals will take some time,” Abdinasir Abubakar, WHO representative in Lebanon said

GENEVA: A World Health Organization official voiced optimism on Thursday that some of the health facilities in Lebanon shuttered during more than a year of conflict would soon be operational again, if the ceasefire holds.
“Probably some of our hospitals will take some time, but some hospitals probably will be able to restart very quickly,” Abdinasir Abubakar, WHO representative in Lebanon, told an online press conference after a damage assessment this week.
“So we are very hopeful,” he added, saying four hospitals in and around Beirut were among those that could restart quickly.


Lebanon says 2 hurt as Israeli troops fire on people returning south after truce with Hezbollah

Lebanon says 2 hurt as Israeli troops fire on people returning south after truce with Hezbollah
Updated 28 November 2024
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Lebanon says 2 hurt as Israeli troops fire on people returning south after truce with Hezbollah

Lebanon says 2 hurt as Israeli troops fire on people returning south after truce with Hezbollah
  • Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency said two people were wounded by Israeli fire in Markaba, close to the border, without providing further details
  • It said Israel fired artillery in three other locations near the border

BEIRUT: At least two people were wounded by Israeli fire in southern Lebanon on Thursday, according to state media. The Israeli military said it had fired at people trying to return to certain areas on the second day of a ceasefire with the Hezbollah militant group.
The agreement, brokered by the United States and France, includes an initial two-month ceasefire in which Hezbollah militants are to withdraw north of the Litani River and Israeli forces are to return to their side of the border. The buffer zone would be patrolled by Lebanese troops and UN peacekeepers.
Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency said two people were wounded by Israeli fire in Markaba, close to the border, without providing further details. It said Israel fired artillery in three other locations near the border. There were no immediate reports of casualties.
An Associated Press reporter in northern Israel near the border heard Israeli drones buzzing overhead and the sound of artillery strikes from the Lebanese side.
The Israeli military said in a statement that “several suspects were identified arriving with vehicles to a number of areas in southern Lebanon, breaching the conditions of the ceasefire.” It said troops “opened fire toward them” and would “actively enforce violations of the ceasefire agreement.”
Israeli officials have said forces will be withdrawn gradually as it ensures that the agreement is being enforced. Israel has warned people not to return to areas where troops are deployed, and says it reserves the right to strike Hezbollah if it violates the terms of the truce.
A Lebanese military official said Lebanese troops would gradually deploy in the south as Israeli troops withdraw. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief media.
The ceasefire agreement announced late Tuesday ended 14 months of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah that began a day after Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack out of Gaza, when the Lebanese militant group began firing rockets, drones and missiles in solidarity.
Israel retaliated with airstrikes, and the conflict steadily intensified for nearly a year before boiling over into all-out war in mid-September. The war in Gaza is still raging with no end in sight.
More than 3,760 people were killed by Israeli fire in Lebanon during the conflict, many of them civilians, according to Lebanese health officials. The fighting killed more than 70 people in Israel — over half of them civilians — as well as dozens of Israeli soldiers fighting in southern Lebanon.
Some 1.2 million people were displaced in Lebanon, and thousands began streaming back to their homes on Wednesday despite warnings from the Lebanese military and the Israeli army to stay out of certain areas. Some 50,000 people were displaced on the Israeli side, but few have returned and the communities near the northern border are still largely deserted.
In Menara, an Israeli community on the border with views into Lebanon, around three quarters of homes are damaged, some with collapsed roofs and burnt-out interiors. A few residents could be seen gathering their belongings on Thursday before leaving again.


Algeria facing growing calls to release French-Algerian author Boualem Sansal

Algeria facing growing calls to release French-Algerian author Boualem Sansal
Updated 28 November 2024
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Algeria facing growing calls to release French-Algerian author Boualem Sansal

Algeria facing growing calls to release French-Algerian author Boualem Sansal
  • “The detention without serious grounds of a writer of French nationality is unacceptable,” France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said
  • The European Parliament discussed Algeria’s repression of freedom of speech on Wednesday and called for “his immediate and unconditional release”

PARIS: Politicians, writers and activists have called for the release of French-Algerian writer Boualem Sansal, whose arrest in Algeria is seen as the latest instance of the stifling of creative expression in the military-dominated North African country.
The 75-year-old author, who is an outspoken critic of Islamism and the Algerian regime, has not been heard from by friends, family or his French publisher since leaving Paris for Algiers earlier this month. He has not been seen near his home in his small town, Boumerdes, his neighbors told The Associated Press.
“The detention without serious grounds of a writer of French nationality is unacceptable,” France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said on Wednesday.
He added Sansal’s work “does honor to both his countries and to the values we cherish.”
The European Parliament discussed Algeria’s repression of freedom of speech on Wednesday and called for “his immediate and unconditional release.”
Algerian authorities have not publicly announced charges against Sansal, but the APS state news service said he was arrested at the airport.
Though no longer censored, Sansal’s novels have in the past faced bans in Algeria. A professed admirer of French culture, his writings on Islam’s role in society, authoritarianism, freedom of expression and the civil war that ravaged Algeria throughout the 1990s have won him fans across the ideological spectrum in France, from far-right leader Marine Le Pen to President Emmanuel Macron, who attended his French naturalization ceremony in 2023.
But his work has provoked ire in Algeria, from both authorities and Islamists, who have issued death threats against him in the 1990s and afterward.
Though few garner such international attention, Sansal is among a long list of political prisoners incarcerated in Algeria, where the hopes of a protest movement that led to the ouster of the country’s then-82 year old president have been crushed under President Abdelmadjid Tebboune.
Human rights groups have decried the ongoing repression facing journalists, activists and writers. Amnesty International in September called it a “brutal crackdown on human rights including the rights to freedom of expression, peaceful assembly and association.”
Algerian authorities have in recent months disrupted a book fair in Bejaia and excluded prominent authors from the country’s largest book fair in Algeria has in recent months, including this year’s Goncourt Prize winner Kamel Daoud,
“This tragic news reflects an alarming reality in Algeria, where freedom of expression is no more than a memory in the face of repression, imprisonment and the surveillance of the entire society,” French-Algerian author Kamel Daoud wrote in an editorial signed by more than a dozen authors in Le Point this week.
Sansal has been a polarizing figure in Algeria for holding some pro-Israel views and for likening political Islam to Nazism and totalitarianism in his novels, including “The Oath of the Barbarians” and “2084: The End of the World.”
Despite the controversial subject matter, Sansal had never faced detention. His arrest comes as relations between France and Algeria face newfound strains. France in July backed Morocco’s sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara, angering Algeria, which has long backed the independence Polisario Front and pushed for a referendum to determine the future of the coastal northwest African territory.
“A regime that thinks it has to stop its writers, whatever they think, is certainly a weak regime,” French-Algerian academic Ali Bensaad wrote in a statement posted on Facebook.


Iranian Revolutionary Guards officer killed in Syria, SNN reports

Iranian Revolutionary Guards officer killed in Syria, SNN reports
Updated 28 November 2024
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Iranian Revolutionary Guards officer killed in Syria, SNN reports

Iranian Revolutionary Guards officer killed in Syria, SNN reports

DUBAI: Iranian Revolutionary Guards Brig. Gen. Kioumars Pourhashemi was killed in the Syrian province of Aleppo by “terrorists” linked to Israel, Iran’s SNN news agency reported on Thursday without giving further details.
Rebels led by Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham on Wednesday launched an incursion into a dozen towns and villages in northwest Aleppo province controlled by Syrian President Bashar Assad.