Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?

Will Israeli strikes spark civil war in Lebanon?
0 seconds of 39 secondsVolume 90%
Press shift question mark to access a list of keyboard shortcuts
00:00
00:39
00:39
 
Short Url
Updated 30 September 2024
Follow

Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?

Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?
  • Far from deepening sectarianism, Israeli strikes are creating solidarity between Lebanon’s factions, says health minister
  • Dr. Firass Abiad accuses Israel of refusing to negotiate an end to conflict and of committing war crimes by killing health personnel

DUBAI: Hassan Nasrallah, the longstanding Hezbollah leader who was killed in an Israeli strike on his Beirut stronghold over the weekend, was the author of deep divisions in Lebanon, which have long threatened to drag the nation back into the mire of civil war.

Since the latest hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah suddenly escalated in mid-September, reports have circulated on social media about flare-ups in sectarian tensions in different parts of Lebanon as a result of mass displacement of people from the south.

Appearing on the Arab News current affairs program “Frankly Speaking,” Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s minister of public health, insisted the conflict had not created a sectarian split in society, as even many Shiites, who form Hezbollah’s support base, now appear to oppose the militia’s actions.

“There’s clearly a lot of people in Lebanon who oppose the politics and what Hezbollah is doing. There’s no denying that, if you talk to people,” Abiad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen.

“This is across the board. This is not sectarian, (it’s) among all sects, including Shittes, you have people who oppose Hezbollah.”




Dr. Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s minister of public health, insisted the conflict had not created a sectarian split, even as many Shiites appear to oppose Hezbollah’s actions. (AN photo)

At the same time, however, Abiad said Israel’s strikes on Lebanon had created a spirit of solidarity across Lebanon’s multiconfessional society, similar to the sympathy generated across the Arab world for the Palestinians — even among those who oppose Hamas — in the wake of Israel’s assault on Gaza.

“What Israel is doing by these indiscriminate attacks, when they attack a Christian or even when they are attacking Shiite areas … this will only increase the feeling of solidarity with the community where Hezbollah is based,” he said.

“We’ve seen this also with Gaza. If you look at the Arab world, the support for Hamas is not high. But when people see the atrocities, the carnage that Israel is perpetrating in Gaza, I think that, unanimously, a lot of people have a lot of sympathy with the people of Palestine.

“And Israel, in the way it is conducting its war on Lebanon, has fostered this environment of solidarity.”

Abiad said this sense of solidarity was evident on Sept. 16 and 17, when Hezbollah communication devices, including pagers and walkie-talkies, exploded simultaneously in a coordinated attack blamed on Israel that killed at least 32 and injured more than 3,000.

“You could see this on the day of the attack on the explosive devices,” said Abiad. “We at the Ministry of Health were sending patients all across the country because we had to have a full response from all hospitals.

“And even when we were sending patients into hospitals that were in areas that are politically, or from a religious perspective, diametrically opposite to Hezbollah, the people who were injured were welcomed, they were cared for, they were given attention.




An ambulance brings injured Lebanese to the AUB Medical Center, on Sept. 17 after beeper blasts targeted Hezbollah operatives. (File/AFP)

“This is something that Israel has repeatedly failed to understand; that its indiscriminate targeting or its dehumanization of all, for example, Arabs, or communities, would only lead to more sympathy with the ‘said’ enemies.”

On Saturday, Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah had been killed in an Israeli strike on the group’s Dahiyeh stronghold in Beirut. The attack follows days of Israeli strikes across Lebanon, which, as of Saturday, had left 1,030 people — including 156 women and 87 children — dead.

Hezbollah began rocketing northern Israel last October in solidarity with the Palestinian militant group Hamas, whose Oct. 7 assault on southern Israel triggered the war in Gaza. Israel retaliated by mounting strikes on Hezbollah targets.

Since mid-September, Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets across the country have rapidly escalated. However, the roots of the conflict run deeper than last October. The two sides have been locked in an intermittent confrontation since the Lebanese civil war.

Hezbollah was formed during Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon. Major escalations occurred in 1993, 1996, and particularly in 2006, when a full-scale war erupted, causing significant destruction in Lebanon.

Hezbollah has since strengthened its military capabilities, while maintaining its role in Lebanese politics. Tensions continued, with periodic border clashes, as the group has evolved into a key player in the broader Israel-Iran proxy conflict.

Israel withdrew its troops from Lebanon in 2000, creating the possibility of stability for Lebanon. However, territorial disputes remained, which Hezbollah exploited to build support and to justify continued resistance to Israel.

Does a share of the blame for the continuation of hostilities, therefore, belong to Hezbollah?

“No, that’s the exact opposite,” said Abiad. “If you go back to the UN resolutions — especially 1701. In 1701, it was very clear that, first of all, Israel has to withdraw from all the areas in Lebanon, which did not happen. And up till now, Israel still occupies Lebanese territory.”




Medical staff at a hospital care for victims after the Israeli military struck Hezbollah targets in Beirut's southern suburb last week. (File/AFP)

UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted in 2006, called for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, ending the Lebanon War. It demanded the disarmament of Hezbollah, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, and the deployment of Lebanese and UN peacekeeping troops to stabilize the region and prevent future conflict.

“Secondly, it very clearly mentioned that Israel should not violate Lebanese airspace, which also did not happen; Israel has been violating Lebanese airspace continuously since the 2000 partial withdrawal from Lebanon,” said Abiad.

“So, indeed, unfortunately, these actions by Israel gave the pretext for Hezbollah to continue today what it is doing now. But let’s be very clear, Israel didn’t fulfill that part of 1701. And even now, Lebanon is saying we are ready to abide by the UN Security Council resolutions.”

One particularly irksome issue relates to the Shebaa Farms — a dispute that centers on a small strip of land claimed by Lebanon but occupied by Israel since 1967.

While Israel and the UN consider it part of Syria’s Golan Heights, Lebanon argues the area is Lebanese, fueling tensions, especially involving Hezbollah, over its sovereignty.

Given what is now occurring in Lebanon, does Abiad believe continuing the Shebaa Farms dispute with Israel has been worthwhile? Surely a negotiated deal would have been a far better option?

“But that depends on the other party accepting a negotiation,” said Abiad. “And, up to now, it has been very clear that Israel is not interested in a negotiated outcome.”

Whoever is ultimately to blame for prolonging the conflict, the result today is mass displacement, civilians killed, thousands injured, and public health system under extreme strain.

The ongoing conflict has created a massive humanitarian crisis, with widespread displacement across the country. According to the Lebanese government’s estimates, nearly 500,000 people have been forced to flee their homes due to escalating violence.

Abiad highlighted the magnitude of the displacement from the south. “Before the attacks, the number released by the disaster management side was 130,000 displaced,” he said.

“Remember that by that time, there was an escalation of hostilities by Israel, and the populations were internally displaced still into southern areas.”

Abiad said the Lebanese government has established 400 public shelters, which currently house about 70,000 people. However, he said the total number of displaced people is far higher.

“We estimate that usually, from our past experience in the 2006 war, the number of people, whether they are living with friends, family, in homes they rented, or even across the border into neighboring countries, is four to five times as many as there are in shelters,” he said.

“And that’s why we really believe that the tally of people who have been displaced is probably around 400,000 to 500,000.”

The pressure on hospitals, in particular, is reaching breaking point.

“The daily tally of casualties keeps rising, as hospitals get overwhelmed with casualties,” said Abiad. “Can we continue all this? The answer is we are working at nearly full capacity, I would say. And it is becoming more tough as the war drags on.”




“There’s clearly a lot of people in Lebanon who oppose ... what Hezbollah is doing. There’s no denying that, if you talk to people,” Dr. Firass Abiad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen. (AN photo)

He added: “I think the most challenging would be fuel. I think that, concerning nurses, hospital beds, medical supplies, medications, as I said, we have been stocking up on our inventory. But really, fuel is going to be a critical issue.

“Hospitals, ambulances, they all require fuel to function. Now we have been increasing the renewable-energy budgets in our hospitals — 15 of our public hospitals now have renewable energy, constituting almost 40 percent of their energy requirements.

“Almost 200 of our primary health care centers now completely can work or function on renewable energy. But clearly I would say fuel is going to be critical if there is a further escalation.”

On top of this, Abiad accused Israel of deliberately targeting medical personnel — something he says constitutes a war crime.

“Do we consider this a war crime? Of course, we consider this a war crime,” said Abiad, adding that this was not just the view of the Lebanese government but echoed by international legal bodies.

“When we listen to the International Court of Justice, these are the experts on what is international humanitarian law and whether it has been violated. So these are the experts telling us that what Israel is doing constitutes war crimes.”
 

 


Palestinian presidency accuses Israel of ‘ethnic cleansing’ in West Bank

Palestinian presidency accuses Israel of ‘ethnic cleansing’ in West Bank
Updated 03 February 2025
Follow

Palestinian presidency accuses Israel of ‘ethnic cleansing’ in West Bank

Palestinian presidency accuses Israel of ‘ethnic cleansing’ in West Bank

RAMALLAH: The office of Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas on Monday denounced as “ethnic cleansing” an ongoing Israeli military operation in the occupied West Bank and urged the United States to intervene.
In a statement, spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeineh said the presidency “condemned the occupation authorities’ expansion of their comprehensive war on our Palestinian people in the West Bank to implement their plans aimed at displacing citizens and ethnic cleansing.”


English attorney general involved in guide on combating Israeli apartheid

English attorney general involved in guide on combating Israeli apartheid
Updated 03 February 2025
Follow

English attorney general involved in guide on combating Israeli apartheid

English attorney general involved in guide on combating Israeli apartheid
  • Lord Hermer detailed ways Palestinians could sue weapons firms in UK courts
  • Handbook, titled ‘Corporate Complicity in Israel’s Occupation,’ was published in 2011

LONDON: The attorney general for England and Wales contributed to a handbook on combating Israeli apartheid during his time as a lawyer working in private practice, the Sunday Telegraph reported.

Lord Hermer wrote a chapter in the book on ways that Palestinian victims could use British courts to sue weapons firms that sold arms to Israel.

Lawyers in the UK were in a “much better position” to take action on the matter than those in the US, he wrote in the book “Corporate Complicity in Israel’s Occupation,” published in 2011.

Lord Hermer, now legal chief to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, was working at Doughty Street Chambers as a lawyer at the time.

The book’s introduction says: “It is our hope that this book will prove useful in the fight against Israeli war crimes, occupation and apartheid.” It compiles commentary and contributions from pro-Palestinian lawyers and academics.

In the book, Lord Hermer criticizes British “export licences for weapons used by Israel in violation of international humanitarian and human rights law.”

He provides a list of “proactive steps that the UK could take” to punish firms that sell weapons to Israel that could be used to violate human rights law.

Last year, Lord Hermer played a key role in the UK government’s decision to suspend 30 arms export licenses to Israel.

He also called on the government to abide by the International Criminal Court arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Lord Hermer’s chapter in the book explains how a Palestinian could use English courts to sue Israeli arms firm Elbit.

“If the company that was producing the drones or the missiles has a factory here, that’s sufficient (to bring legal action),” he said.

In a transcript attached to the chapter, detailing a question-and-answer session, Lord Hermer argued that the British legal system was more favorable to Palestinians than that of the US.

“There’s a much better position here than in the US. In the states, a whole host of important human rights cases have been closed down simply because they touch upon issues of foreign relations,” he said.


Syrian leader to visit Turkiye on Tuesday

Syrian leader to visit Turkiye on Tuesday
Updated 03 February 2025
Follow

Syrian leader to visit Turkiye on Tuesday

Syrian leader to visit Turkiye on Tuesday

ISTANBUL: Syria’s interim president Ahmed Al-Sharaa will visit Turkiye on Tuesday on his second international visit since the toppling of Bashar Assad in December, the Turkish presidency said.
Sharaa “will pay a visit to Ankara on Tuesday at the invitation of our President Recep Tayyip Erdogan,” Fahrettin Altun, head of communications at the presidency, said on X.


Car bomb explosion near Syrian Arab Republic’s Manbij kills 15

Car bomb explosion near Syrian Arab Republic’s Manbij kills 15
Updated 03 February 2025
Follow

Car bomb explosion near Syrian Arab Republic’s Manbij kills 15

Car bomb explosion near Syrian Arab Republic’s Manbij kills 15

DAMASCUS: A car bomb on Monday killed 15 people, mostly women farm workers, in the northern Syrian city of Manbij where Kurdish forces are battling Turkiye-backed groups, state media reported.

Citing White Helmet rescuers, SANA news agency said there had been a “massacre” on a local road, with “the explosion of a car bomb near a vehicle transporting agricultural workers” killing 14 women and one man.

The attack also wounded 15 women, some critically, SANA said, adding the toll could rise.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility.

It was the second such attack in recent days in war-ravaged Syrian Arab Republic, where Islamist-led rebels toppled autocratic president Bashar Assad in December.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor reported nine people, including an unspecified number of pro-Turkiye fighters, killed Saturday “when a car bomb exploded near a military position” in Manbij.

Turkiye-backed forces in Syria’s north launched an offensive against the Kurdish-led, US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in November, capturing several Kurdish-held enclaves in the north despite US efforts to broker a ceasefire.

With US support, the SDF spearheaded the military campaign that ousted the Daesh group from Syrian Arab Republic in 2019.

But Turkiye accuses the main component of the group – the People’s Protection Units (YPG) – of being affiliated with the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

Both Turkiye and the United States have designated the PKK, which has waged a decades-long insurgency on Turkish soil, a terrorist group.

Syrian Arab Republic’s new rulers have called on the SDF to hand over their weapons, rejecting demands for any kind of Kurdish self-rule.

Assad ruled Syrian Arab Republic with an iron fist and his bloody crackdown down on anti-government protests in 2011 sparked a war that killed more than 500,000 people and displaced millions.


Israeli prime minister in Washington for Gaza ceasefire talks

Israeli prime minister in Washington for Gaza ceasefire talks
Updated 03 February 2025
Follow

Israeli prime minister in Washington for Gaza ceasefire talks

Israeli prime minister in Washington for Gaza ceasefire talks
  • Netanyahu told reporters he would discuss "victory over Hamas"
  • Trump said Sunday that negotiations with Israel and other countries in the Middle East were "progressing"

JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to begin talks Monday on brokering a second phase of the ceasefire with Hamas, his office said, as he visits the new Trump administration in Washington.
Ahead of his departure, Netanyahu told reporters he would discuss "victory over Hamas", contending with Iran and freeing all hostages when he meets with President Donald Trump on Tuesday.
It will be Trump's first meeting with a foreign leader since returning to the White House in January, a prioritisation Netanyahu called "telling".
"I think it's a testimony to the strength of the Israeli-American alliance," he said before boarding his flight.
He was welcomed to the US capital on Sunday night by Israel's ambassador to the UN Danny Danon, who stressed the coming Trump-Netanyahu meeting would strengthen "the deep alliance between Israel and the United States and will enhance our cooperation".
Trump, who has claimed credit for sealing the ceasefire deal after 15 months of war, said Sunday that negotiations with Israel and other countries in the Middle East were "progressing".
"Bibi (Benjamin) Netanyahu's coming on Tuesday, and I think we have some very big meetings scheduled," Trump said.
Netanyahu's office said he would begin discussions with Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff on Monday over terms for the second phase of the truce.
Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas are meanwhile due to resume this week.
The initial, 42-day phase of the deal is due to end next month.
The next stage is expected to cover the release of the remaining captives and to include discussions on a more permanent end to the war.
Trump has said that 15 months of fighting has reduced the Palestinian territory to a "demolition site" and has repeatedly touted a plan to "clean out" the Gaza Strip, calling for Palestinians to move to neighbouring countries such as Egypt or Jordan.
Qatar, which jointly mediated the ceasefire along with the US and Egypt, underscored on Sunday the importance of allowing Palestinians to "return to their homes and land".
"We emphasised the importance of concerted efforts to intensify the entry of humanitarian aid and rehabilitate the Strip to make it livable and to stabilise the Palestinian people in their land," Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani said following a meeting with Turkey's foreign minister.

Under the ceasefire's first phase, Hamas was to free 33 hostages in staggered releases in exchange for around 1,900 Palestinians held in Israeli jails.
The truce has also led to a surge of food, fuel, medical and other aid into rubble-strewn Gaza, while displaced Palestinians have been allowed to begin returning to the north.
During their October 7, 2023 attack, Hamas militants took 251 hostages, 91 of whom remain in Gaza, including 34 the Israeli military has confirmed are dead.
The attack resulted in the deaths of 1,210 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.
Israel's retaliatory response has killed at least 47,283 people in Gaza, a majority civilians, according to the Hamas-run territory's health ministry, figures which the UN considers reliable.
While Trump's predecessor Joe Biden sustained Washington's military and diplomatic backing of Israel, it also distanced itself from the mounting death toll and aid restrictions.
Trump moved quickly to reset relations.
In one of his first acts back in office, he lifted sanctions on Israeli settlers accused of violence against Palestinians and reportedly approved a shipment of 2,000-pound bombs that the Biden administration had blocked.
The ceasefire discussions in Washington are expected to also cover concessions Netanyahu must accept to revive normalisation efforts with Saudi Arabia.
Riyadh froze discussions early in the Gaza war and hardened its stance, insisting on a resolution to the Palestinian issue before making any deal.
Trump believes "that he must stabilise the region first and create an anti-Iran coalition with his strategic partners," including Israel and Saudi Arabia, said David Khalfa, a researcher at the Jean Jaures Foundation in Paris.
But Netanyahu faces intense pressure from within his cabinet to resume the war, with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich threatening to quit and strip the prime minister of his majority.

On the ground, Israel said Sunday it has killed at least 50 militants and detained more than 100 "wanted individuals" during an operation in the West Bank.
The massive offensive began on January 21 with the Israeli military saying it aimed to root out Palestinian armed groups from the Jenin area, which has long been a hotbed of militancy.
On Sunday, Palestinian official news agency WAFA said Israeli forces "simultaneously detonated about 20 buildings" in the eastern part of Jenin refugee camp, adding that the "explosions were heard throughout Jenin city and parts of the neighbouring towns".
The Palestinian health ministry meanwhile said the Israeli military killed a 73-year-old man and a 27-year-old in separate incidents in the West Bank on Sunday.
Violence has surged across the West Bank since the Gaza war broke out in October 2023.
Israeli troops or settlers have killed at least 883 Palestinians in the West Bank since the start of the war, according to the Palestinian health ministry.
At least 30 Israelis have been killed in Palestinian attacks or during Israeli military raids in the territory over the same period, according to Israeli official figures.