Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?

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Updated 30 September 2024
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Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?

Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?
  • Far from deepening sectarianism, Israeli strikes are creating solidarity between Lebanon’s factions, says health minister
  • Dr. Firass Abiad accuses Israel of refusing to negotiate an end to conflict and of committing war crimes by killing health personnel

DUBAI: Hassan Nasrallah, the longstanding Hezbollah leader who was killed in an Israeli strike on his Beirut stronghold over the weekend, was the author of deep divisions in Lebanon, which have long threatened to drag the nation back into the mire of civil war.

Since the latest hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah suddenly escalated in mid-September, reports have circulated on social media about flare-ups in sectarian tensions in different parts of Lebanon as a result of mass displacement of people from the south.

Appearing on the Arab News current affairs program “Frankly Speaking,” Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s minister of public health, insisted the conflict had not created a sectarian split in society, as even many Shiites, who form Hezbollah’s support base, now appear to oppose the militia’s actions.

“There’s clearly a lot of people in Lebanon who oppose the politics and what Hezbollah is doing. There’s no denying that, if you talk to people,” Abiad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen.

“This is across the board. This is not sectarian, (it’s) among all sects, including Shittes, you have people who oppose Hezbollah.”




Dr. Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s minister of public health, insisted the conflict had not created a sectarian split, even as many Shiites appear to oppose Hezbollah’s actions. (AN photo)

At the same time, however, Abiad said Israel’s strikes on Lebanon had created a spirit of solidarity across Lebanon’s multiconfessional society, similar to the sympathy generated across the Arab world for the Palestinians — even among those who oppose Hamas — in the wake of Israel’s assault on Gaza.

“What Israel is doing by these indiscriminate attacks, when they attack a Christian or even when they are attacking Shiite areas … this will only increase the feeling of solidarity with the community where Hezbollah is based,” he said.

“We’ve seen this also with Gaza. If you look at the Arab world, the support for Hamas is not high. But when people see the atrocities, the carnage that Israel is perpetrating in Gaza, I think that, unanimously, a lot of people have a lot of sympathy with the people of Palestine.

“And Israel, in the way it is conducting its war on Lebanon, has fostered this environment of solidarity.”

Abiad said this sense of solidarity was evident on Sept. 16 and 17, when Hezbollah communication devices, including pagers and walkie-talkies, exploded simultaneously in a coordinated attack blamed on Israel that killed at least 32 and injured more than 3,000.

“You could see this on the day of the attack on the explosive devices,” said Abiad. “We at the Ministry of Health were sending patients all across the country because we had to have a full response from all hospitals.

“And even when we were sending patients into hospitals that were in areas that are politically, or from a religious perspective, diametrically opposite to Hezbollah, the people who were injured were welcomed, they were cared for, they were given attention.




An ambulance brings injured Lebanese to the AUB Medical Center, on Sept. 17 after beeper blasts targeted Hezbollah operatives. (File/AFP)

“This is something that Israel has repeatedly failed to understand; that its indiscriminate targeting or its dehumanization of all, for example, Arabs, or communities, would only lead to more sympathy with the ‘said’ enemies.”

On Saturday, Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah had been killed in an Israeli strike on the group’s Dahiyeh stronghold in Beirut. The attack follows days of Israeli strikes across Lebanon, which, as of Saturday, had left 1,030 people — including 156 women and 87 children — dead.

Hezbollah began rocketing northern Israel last October in solidarity with the Palestinian militant group Hamas, whose Oct. 7 assault on southern Israel triggered the war in Gaza. Israel retaliated by mounting strikes on Hezbollah targets.

Since mid-September, Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets across the country have rapidly escalated. However, the roots of the conflict run deeper than last October. The two sides have been locked in an intermittent confrontation since the Lebanese civil war.

Hezbollah was formed during Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon. Major escalations occurred in 1993, 1996, and particularly in 2006, when a full-scale war erupted, causing significant destruction in Lebanon.

Hezbollah has since strengthened its military capabilities, while maintaining its role in Lebanese politics. Tensions continued, with periodic border clashes, as the group has evolved into a key player in the broader Israel-Iran proxy conflict.

Israel withdrew its troops from Lebanon in 2000, creating the possibility of stability for Lebanon. However, territorial disputes remained, which Hezbollah exploited to build support and to justify continued resistance to Israel.

Does a share of the blame for the continuation of hostilities, therefore, belong to Hezbollah?

“No, that’s the exact opposite,” said Abiad. “If you go back to the UN resolutions — especially 1701. In 1701, it was very clear that, first of all, Israel has to withdraw from all the areas in Lebanon, which did not happen. And up till now, Israel still occupies Lebanese territory.”




Medical staff at a hospital care for victims after the Israeli military struck Hezbollah targets in Beirut's southern suburb last week. (File/AFP)

UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted in 2006, called for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, ending the Lebanon War. It demanded the disarmament of Hezbollah, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, and the deployment of Lebanese and UN peacekeeping troops to stabilize the region and prevent future conflict.

“Secondly, it very clearly mentioned that Israel should not violate Lebanese airspace, which also did not happen; Israel has been violating Lebanese airspace continuously since the 2000 partial withdrawal from Lebanon,” said Abiad.

“So, indeed, unfortunately, these actions by Israel gave the pretext for Hezbollah to continue today what it is doing now. But let’s be very clear, Israel didn’t fulfill that part of 1701. And even now, Lebanon is saying we are ready to abide by the UN Security Council resolutions.”

One particularly irksome issue relates to the Shebaa Farms — a dispute that centers on a small strip of land claimed by Lebanon but occupied by Israel since 1967.

While Israel and the UN consider it part of Syria’s Golan Heights, Lebanon argues the area is Lebanese, fueling tensions, especially involving Hezbollah, over its sovereignty.

Given what is now occurring in Lebanon, does Abiad believe continuing the Shebaa Farms dispute with Israel has been worthwhile? Surely a negotiated deal would have been a far better option?

“But that depends on the other party accepting a negotiation,” said Abiad. “And, up to now, it has been very clear that Israel is not interested in a negotiated outcome.”

Whoever is ultimately to blame for prolonging the conflict, the result today is mass displacement, civilians killed, thousands injured, and public health system under extreme strain.

The ongoing conflict has created a massive humanitarian crisis, with widespread displacement across the country. According to the Lebanese government’s estimates, nearly 500,000 people have been forced to flee their homes due to escalating violence.

Abiad highlighted the magnitude of the displacement from the south. “Before the attacks, the number released by the disaster management side was 130,000 displaced,” he said.

“Remember that by that time, there was an escalation of hostilities by Israel, and the populations were internally displaced still into southern areas.”

Abiad said the Lebanese government has established 400 public shelters, which currently house about 70,000 people. However, he said the total number of displaced people is far higher.

“We estimate that usually, from our past experience in the 2006 war, the number of people, whether they are living with friends, family, in homes they rented, or even across the border into neighboring countries, is four to five times as many as there are in shelters,” he said.

“And that’s why we really believe that the tally of people who have been displaced is probably around 400,000 to 500,000.”

The pressure on hospitals, in particular, is reaching breaking point.

“The daily tally of casualties keeps rising, as hospitals get overwhelmed with casualties,” said Abiad. “Can we continue all this? The answer is we are working at nearly full capacity, I would say. And it is becoming more tough as the war drags on.”




“There’s clearly a lot of people in Lebanon who oppose ... what Hezbollah is doing. There’s no denying that, if you talk to people,” Dr. Firass Abiad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen. (AN photo)

He added: “I think the most challenging would be fuel. I think that, concerning nurses, hospital beds, medical supplies, medications, as I said, we have been stocking up on our inventory. But really, fuel is going to be a critical issue.

“Hospitals, ambulances, they all require fuel to function. Now we have been increasing the renewable-energy budgets in our hospitals — 15 of our public hospitals now have renewable energy, constituting almost 40 percent of their energy requirements.

“Almost 200 of our primary health care centers now completely can work or function on renewable energy. But clearly I would say fuel is going to be critical if there is a further escalation.”

On top of this, Abiad accused Israel of deliberately targeting medical personnel — something he says constitutes a war crime.

“Do we consider this a war crime? Of course, we consider this a war crime,” said Abiad, adding that this was not just the view of the Lebanese government but echoed by international legal bodies.

“When we listen to the International Court of Justice, these are the experts on what is international humanitarian law and whether it has been violated. So these are the experts telling us that what Israel is doing constitutes war crimes.”
 

 


US vetoes UN resolution calling for ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages

US vetoes UN resolution calling for ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages
Updated 56 min 52 sec ago
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US vetoes UN resolution calling for ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages

US vetoes UN resolution calling for ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages
  • Resolution was put forward by 10 elected, non-permanent Security Council members
  • Over 44,000 Palestinians have been killed since Israel’s war in Gaza began in October 2023

NEW YORK CITY: The US on Wednesday used the power of veto it holds as one of the five permanent member of the UN Security Council to block a resolution demanding “an immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire” in Gaza and “the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages.”

The resolution was put forward by the 10 elected, non-permanent members of the council. The US was the only one of the 15 members not to vote in favor of it.

The text of the resolution also called for the “safe and unhindered entry of humanitarian assistance at scale” to Gaza, including besieged areas in the north of the territory, and denounced any attempt to deliberately starve the population there.

More than 44,000 Palestinians have been killed since Israel’s war in Gaza began in October last year, and the UN says that in excess of 70 percent of the verified deaths were among women and children. More than 130,000 people have been injured. The UN believes these figures to be an underestimate, given that scores of bodies are thought to be buried under the rubble of destroyed or damaged buildings.

The war has also displaced almost the entire population of the enclave, resulting in a humanitarian catastrophe.

On Monday, the UN’s Special Committee to Investigate Israeli Practices presented a report to the General Assembly in which it said the methods of warfare employed by Israel in Gaza, including the use of starvation as a weapon, the mass civilian casualties and the life-threatening conditions deliberately inflicted on Palestinians, are consistent with the characteristics of genocide.

After the Security Council failed to adopt the resolution on Wednesday, Majed Bamya, the Palestinian deputy ambassador to the UN, told its members that they were witnessing an attempt “to annihilate a nation” and yet the “very tools designed to respond (to this are) not being used.”

He added: “Maybe for some we have the wrong nationality, the wrong faith, the wrong skin color, but we are humans and we should be treated as such.

“Is there a UN Charter for Israel that is different from the charter you all have? Is there an international law for them? An international law for us? Do they have the right to kill and the only right we have is to die?

“What more can (Israel) do for this council to act under Chapter 7? Or will this council be the last place on earth that cannot recognize a threat to peace when they see it?”

Chapter 7 of the UN Charter relates to action that can be taken by member states in response to threats to peace and acts of aggression.

Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, told council members: “Today, a shameful attempt to abandon our kidnapped men and women by the UN was prevented. Thanks to the US, we stood firm with our position that there will be no ceasefire without the release of the hostages. We will continue in this struggle until everyone returns home.”

Robert Wood, the deputy US ambassador, said that an unconditional ceasefire would mean acceptance by the Security Council of Hamas remaining in power in Gaza.

“The United States will never accept this,” he added. “Rather than adopting a resolution that emboldens Hamas, let’s instead demand Hamas implement Resolution 2735 without further condition or delay.

“Let’s continue to ensure Israel facilitates additional humanitarian aid into Gaza, and let's work to bring a durable end to the suffering and misery of Hamas’ many victims."

Security Council Resolution 2735, which was adopted in June, calls on Hamas to accept a proposed hostage and ceasefire agreement with Israel.

British envoy Barbara Woodward, whose country holds the rotating presidency of the council this month, expressed regret over the failure of the council to adopt the resolution but vowed to “keep striving, alongside our partners, to bring this war to a close.”

She said: “The deterioration of the humanitarian situation in Gaza is catastrophic and unacceptable. All of Gaza is at risk of famine, and in some areas this is likely to be imminent. Yet the aid reaching civilians remains entirely insufficient to mitigate this unfolding disaster.

“The unthinkable hardship that civilians are already facing in Gaza is set to get even worse as winter approaches.”

Woodward urged Israeli authorities to take “urgent action to alleviate this crisis. International humanitarian law must be respected by all sides.”

China’s ambassador to the UN, Fu Cong, said that even with the imminent threat of famine in Gaza, “the United States always seems to be able to find a justification to defend Israel.” It is a stance that represents a distortion of international humanitarian law, he added.

“People keep learning something new they never knew before was possible, and how low one can stoop. No wonder people feel angry,” said Fu.

“People’s indignation also stems from the fact that the continued supply of weapons from the US (to Israel) has become a decisive factor in the war lasting so long, causing so many casualties and so much destruction.”

He added: “All hostages must be released. An immediate and unconditional ceasefire must be established. Both are important factors. There should be no conditionality. They cannot be linked to each other because facts have shown that Israel’s military operations in Gaza have long exceeded the scope of rescuing hostages.

“Insistence on setting a precondition for ceasefire is tantamount to giving the green light to continuing the war and condoning the continued killing.”

The Algerian ambassador, Amar Bendjama, told the council after the vote: “Today’s message is clear.

“To the Israeli occupying power: You may continue your genocide and collective punishment of the Palestinian people with complete impunity. In this chamber, you enjoy immunity.

“To the Palestinian people: While the majority of the world stands in solidarity with your plight, tragically, others remain indifferent to your suffering.”

Nicolas de Riviere, France’s permanent representative to the UN, lamented the latest failure by the council to help bring an end to the war.

“France voted in favor of this resolution and deeply regrets that the (Security Council) remains unable to speak with one voice on the situation in the Middle East.”

The Russian envoy, Vassily Nebenzia, directly addressed his US counterpart and accused him of being responsible for the deaths “of tens of thousands of innocent civilians (and) the suffering of hostages and illegally detained Palestinians.”

He added: “It was very interesting to hear the American representative today, in the wake of the vote, say that the resolution does not contain provisions on the release of hostages. Well, it does contain such a provision. Perhaps the US representative should read through the resolution before voting against it.”


ICC prosecutor urges nations to help arrest 6 Libyans allegedly linked to a brutal militia

ICC prosecutor urges nations to help arrest 6 Libyans allegedly linked to a brutal militia
Updated 20 November 2024
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ICC prosecutor urges nations to help arrest 6 Libyans allegedly linked to a brutal militia

ICC prosecutor urges nations to help arrest 6 Libyans allegedly linked to a brutal militia
  • The six men were either key members of or associated with the Al Kaniyat militia that controlled the town of Tarhuna from at least 2015 to June 2020
  • “They have a clear conviction that justice and accountability and fair processes are essential for themselves, their families, their community, and for Libya at large,” Khan said

UNITED NATIONS: The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court urged Libya and other nations Tuesday to help arrest six men allegedly linked to a brutal militia blamed for multiple killings and other crimes in a strategically important western town where mass graves were discovered in 2020.
Karim Khan told the UN Security Council that he is ready to work with the Libyan government and people as well as countries that are parties to the ICC and those that are not to assist in the arrests.
The ICC does not have a police force and relies on cooperation from its 124 member states to enforce arrest warrants.
The six men were either key members of or associated with the Al Kaniyat militia that controlled the town of Tarhuna from at least 2015 to June 2020, when government forces ousted them from the town. Tarhuna is located about 65 kilometers (40 miles) southeast of the capital, Tripoli.
Briefing the council by video from Libya, Khan said he met victims earlier Tuesday from Tarhuna who told him of their suffering. He said he walked “in the areas where their loved ones were tortured and killed.” One Libyan told him that “every household in Tarhuna has a victim,” he said.
“They have a steely determination. They have a clear conviction that justice and accountability and fair processes are essential for themselves, their families, their community, and for Libya at large,” Khan said.
The prosecutor said the victims’ determination “gives rise to renewed hope that things are moving in a direction away from talk to action, and the possibility of justice.”
The ICC unsealed arrest warrants in early October for six men: Abdelrahim Al-Kani, Makhlouf Douma, Nasser Al-Lahsa, Mohammed Salheen, Abdelbari Al-Shaqaqi and Fathi Al-Zinkal.
Khan said at that time that three of the men were leaders or senior members of Al Kaniyat. Three others were Libyan security officials associated with the militia at the time of the alleged crimes.
“We know where they are,” Khan said Tuesday.
The ICC prosecutor said the victims told him they are pleased with the warrants but “what they are demanding is your help to help with the arrests of those individuals and to ensure that there are trials — that they can be part of trials when they can give evidence.”
Libya plunged into chaos after a NATO-backed uprising toppled and killed longtime dictator Muammar Qaddafi in 2011. The country split, with rival administrations in the east and west backed by rogue militias and foreign governments.
The mass graves were found in Tarhuna after the militia’s withdrawal following the collapse of a 14-month campaign by military commander Khalifa Haftar, who is still a powerful force in the east, to wrest control of Tripoli from an array of militias allied with the former UN-recognized government.


Hamas: No hostages-for-prisoners swap deal with Israel unless Gaza war ends

Hamas: No hostages-for-prisoners swap deal with Israel unless Gaza war ends
Updated 20 November 2024
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Hamas: No hostages-for-prisoners swap deal with Israel unless Gaza war ends

Hamas: No hostages-for-prisoners swap deal with Israel unless Gaza war ends
  • “Without an end to the war, there can be no prisoner swap,” Hayya said
  • “If the aggression is not ended, why would the resistance and in particular Hamas, return the prisoners (hostages)?“

CAIRO: Hamas’ acting Gaza chief Khalil Al-Hayya said in remarks broadcast on Wednesday that there would be no hostages-for-prisoners swap deal with Israel unless the war in the Palestinian enclave ended.
“Without an end to the war, there can be no prisoner swap,” Hayya said in a televised interview with the group’s Al-Aqsa television channel, reiterating the group’s position on how to bring the war to an end.
“If the aggression is not ended, why would the resistance and in particular Hamas, return the prisoners (hostages)?” he said. “How would a sane or an insane person lose a strong card he owns while the war is continuing?“
Hayya, who led the group’s negotiating team in talks with Qatari and Egyptian mediators, blamed the lack of progress on Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who in turn holds the Islamist group responsible for the stalled talks.
“There are contacts under way with some countries and mediators to revive this file (negotiation). We are ready to continue with those efforts but it is more important to see a real will on the side of the occupation to end the aggression,” said Hayya.
“The reality proves that Netanyahu is the one who undermines it (negotiations),” he added.
Speaking during a visit to Gaza on Tuesday, Netanyahu said that Hamas would not rule the Palestinian enclave after the war had ended and that Israel had destroyed the Islamist group’s military capabilities.


Jordanian king and UAE president discuss ceasefire efforts in Gaza and Lebanon

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed welcomes King Abdullah II of Jordan in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday. (Jordan Royal Palace/AFP)
UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed welcomes King Abdullah II of Jordan in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday. (Jordan Royal Palace/AFP)
Updated 20 November 2024
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Jordanian king and UAE president discuss ceasefire efforts in Gaza and Lebanon

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed welcomes King Abdullah II of Jordan in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday. (Jordan Royal Palace/AFP)
  • King Abdullah II and Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed hold talks in Abu Dhabi 
  • Leaders discuss concern over conflict spreading in Middle East

DUBAI: Jordan’s King Abdullah II and the UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed held talks on Wednesday, which included international efforts to secure ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon.

The two leaders met in Abu Dhabi as the US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution to halt Israel’s war on Gaza and as diplomats shuttled between Jerusalem and Beirut to try to end Israel’s offensive in Lebanon.

Sheikh Mohamed and King Abdullah “underscored the importance of intensifying efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon, ensuring full protection for civilians in accordance with international humanitarian law, and providing humanitarian support to those affected,” the UAE’s state news agency WAM reported.

They also said that the UAE and Jordan were both “steadfast in supporting Lebanon’s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity while expressing solidarity with the Lebanese people.”

Nearly 44,000 people have been killed in Gaza since Israel launched its assault there after Hamas attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7 last year, killing about 1,200.

The conflict escalated to a war in Lebanon in September, where Israeli bombing against Hamas ally Hezbollah has killed more than 3,500 people.

The UAE and Jordan both have relations with Israel but have been fiercely critical of Israel’s military offensives and the human suffering that they have caused.

During their meeting, Sheikh Mohamed and King Abdullah spoke about widespread concern that the conflict could spread to other countries in the region.

“The leaders emphasized the need to prevent conflict in the Middle East from escalating further, as it poses a threat to the region’s security and stability,” WAM reported.

“They also stressed the importance of establishing a clear path toward a just, comprehensive, and lasting peace based on a two-state solution that guarantees security and stability for all.”

King Abdullah flew to Abu Dhabi on Wednesday morning for the meeting, along with Jordan’s Prime Minister Jafar Hassan and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, who also attended the meeting.

The UAE and Jordan have both mobilized large aid operations to help alleviate suffering in Gaza and Lebanon.

Last week, four convoys of trucks carrying 605 tonnes of aid from the UAE made it to Gaza through the Rafah crossing with Egypt. 

On Wednesday, eight Jordanian helicopters flew food, medicine and supplies for children, landing directly in Gaza for the first time since the fighting began.


Jordan army flies eight helicopters with aid to Gaza

The Jordanian helicopters were able to land the aid inside Gaza for the first time since the conflict started. (Petra)
The Jordanian helicopters were able to land the aid inside Gaza for the first time since the conflict started. (Petra)
Updated 20 November 2024
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Jordan army flies eight helicopters with aid to Gaza

The Jordanian helicopters were able to land the aid inside Gaza for the first time since the conflict started. (Petra)
  • Helicopters carrying food, medicine and supplies for children took off from Jordan
  • First time for Jordanian aircraft to land in Gaza with aid since the outbreak of the conflict

Amman: Jordan’s army said Wednesday it sent eight helicopters loaded with more than seven tons of aid to Gaza, which is grappling with a humanitarian crisis after more than a year of war.
The helicopters carrying food, medicine and supplies for children took off from Jordan toward the Palestinian territory, the army said in a statement.
It was the first time for Jordanian aircraft to land in Gaza with aid since the outbreak of the conflict in October last year.
The army said the aid was being delivered to Al-Qarara, an area near Gaza’s southern city of Khan Yunis, where it would be handed over to the World Food Programme.
“The total amount of aid sent from the kingdom to the Gaza Strip is about 56,573 tons,” it added, noting the aid had been delivered through Egypt by plane, by truck and dozens of airdrops.
The majority of Gaza’s 2.4 population has been displaced by the fighting, and the UN warned on November 9 that famine was looming in some areas due to a lack of aid.
War broke out in Gaza after Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked southern Israel, resulting in the deaths of 1,206 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.
The militants also seized 251 hostages, 97 of whom remain in Gaza including 34 the army says are dead.
Israel’s retaliatory military campaign has killed at least 43,973 people, also mostly civilians, according to figures from the Hamas-run health ministry that the UN finds reliable.