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The Israeli military said on Saturday that it had killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike on the organization’s underground headquarters in southern Beirut the previous night. The question is, what happens in the wake of Nasrallah’s death? Where will his assassination take Lebanon and the region?
What will be the effect on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Iran — and what role will the US try to play to juggle all the events? Netanyahu knows that in the lead-up to the US elections there is a power vacuum. He has an opportunity until Nov. 5, hence he will use it to the maximum. Following the successful pager attack, the Israeli leader went after Nasrallah. Now that this threat to Israel has been eliminated, what will Netanyahu do? Will he be deterred? This is unlikely because he will see an opportunity to change the current status quo, and impose new conditions on countries in the region, definitely on Lebanon.
The events can either lead to a de-escalation and a regional deal, or to further escalation. It all depends on the ability of the US to restrain Netanyahu. Typically, Washington should leverage the assassination to pressure Netanyahu to end the war on Lebanon and, ideally, on Gaza. However, the current administration is focused on the election and will not take any decision. Lebanon has no deterrence. For Israel, Iran deterrence is also punctured. Hezbollah was Iran’s front line against Israel. Therefore, we need to closely watch how Netanyahu behaves in the next two months.
The assassination is likely to embolden Netanyahu, who now sees the opportunity to impose a new paradigm. It is unlikely that Israel will stop the bombing of Lebanon. Israeli army chief Herzi Halevi said that they would eliminate anyone who constitutes a threat. It is also unlikely that Hezbollah is totally destroyed. Israel wants the group to raise the white flag, which they will not.
The killing of a prominent figure such as Nasrallah is a major achievement that Netanyahu can sell to his people as a victory, and use that to end the war and do a hostage deal with Hamas. However, he does not seem interested in stopping. He will try to use the next two months to reap maximum benefits. So far Netanyahu has faced resistance from his neighbors. King Abdullah of Jordan and President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi of Egypt have categorically refused any Palestinian displacement to their countries. This is why the campaign that Israel conducted to eradicate “terror groups and cells” in the West Bank was stopped.
It is time to realize that the US is busy with its election.
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib
Unless there is someone to steer events, an unbridled Netanyahu will drive the region into more chaos. In his speech at the UN General Assembly, he vowed not to stop until total victory was reached. Therefore, it is unlikely that he will portray the killing of Nasrallah as the victory, and use it to move to a diplomatic solution. Israel has used each war to gain more land, and increase its hegemony. This is the war in which Netanyahu wants to establish Israel as the regional hegemon that no one can challenge, especially since Iran remained all but idle in this fight. Now, with the killing of Hezbollah’s leader, Iran is emasculated. Will anyone stand in Netanyahu’s way? Unlikely. He will use this opportunity to impose new conditions on everyone.
However, this grim scenario can be avoided if the region comes together, puts differences aside, and crafts a solution. The region can no longer wait for the US. The US will not do anything before the election — if it decides to do anything at all. To wait for the election will be too late. The damage that Netanyahu can inflict in the next 40 days could be irreversible. The threat represented by Netanyahu should push everyone to come together. They should do that quickly. Lebanon cannot endure another 40 days of Netanyahu’s actions, and neither can Gaza or the region.
The problem in our region is we always wait for a solution from outside. It is time to realize that the US is busy with its election and is unlikely to pressure the Israeli leader. Netanyahu, on the other hand, with a taste of victory, will want more and more. Turkiye, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Egypt should come together and decide to put an end to this madness. The starting point would be Iran. Tehran should rein in its proxies creating chaos in the region in return for security guarantees from its neighbors. After all, for Iran the proxies act as a deterrence in a hostile neighborhood.
The region should take its fate into its own hands — it cannot wait for the US to pressure Israel. It should act now before we have a new catastrophe and a new displacement like 1967.
• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.