Iran treads carefully, backing Hezbollah while avoiding war

Iran treads carefully, backing Hezbollah while avoiding war
With a focus on easing its isolation and reviving its battered economy, Iran is aware that war could complicate efforts to secure relief from crippling sanctions. (AP)
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Iran treads carefully, backing Hezbollah while avoiding war

Iran treads carefully, backing Hezbollah while avoiding war
  • With a focus on easing its isolation and reviving its battered economy, Iran is aware that war could complicate efforts to secure relief from crippling sanctions

TEHRAN: As violence between Israel and Hezbollah escalates, Iran is walking a tightrope by supporting Hezbollah without being dragged into a full-blown conflict and playing into its enemy’s hands.
With a focus on easing its isolation and reviving its battered economy, Iran is aware that war could complicate efforts to secure relief from crippling sanctions.
Cross-border fire between Israel and Hezbollah, sparked by Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, has intensified, especially after last week’s sabotage on Hezbollah’s communications that killed 39 people.
Israeli air strikes on Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon followed, killing hundreds. Hezbollah retaliated with rocket barrages.
Despite the surge in hostilities, Iran appears determined to avoid direct military confrontation.
“Iran is not going to be pulled into war,” said Hamid Gholamzadeh, an Iran-based political expert.
Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said Iran’s strategy was to project power, without directly engaging, especially as escalation could benefit Israel and impact the US election.
“Iran does not want to play into its arch-enemy’s hands,” said Vaez, noting Iran’s priority was securing sanctions relief and some economic stability.
Even during its first-ever direct attack on Israel in April — retaliation for an air strike Tehran’s embassy annex in Damascus — most missiles were intercepted by Israel’s defenses or allied forces.

In New York, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian accused Israel of warmongering while positioning the Islamic republic as restrained.
He suggested Iran had held back retaliation after the killing of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July, fearing it could derail US efforts for a Gaza ceasefire.
“We tried to not respond. They kept telling us we were within reach of peace, perhaps in a week or so,” he said.
“But we never reached that elusive peace. Every day Israel is committing more atrocities.”
This measured approach echoes Iran’s response earlier this year during heightened tensions with Israel. Iran fired hundreds of missiles and drones after the Damascus strike, but most were intercepted.
Analysts say Iran is flexing its muscles amid the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, without provoking a US response.
Iran continues to face Western sanctions, especially since the United States, under then-president Donald Trump, withdrew from a nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers in 2018.
European nations have also slapped sanctions on Iran, accusing it of supplying ballistic missiles to Russia for the Ukraine war.
Iran denied the accusations, with Pezeshkian saying in New York that Iran was “willing to sit down with the Europeans and the Americans to have a dialogue and negotiations.”
Vaez said any Iranian escalation could strengthen Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and even possibly help Trump return to power.
This “would be highly detrimental for Iranian interests,” he said.
Despite its restraint, Iran continues to back Hezbollah. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned Tehran would “not remain indifferent” to Israeli attacks.
Iran also urged the UN Security Council to take immediate action, warning of “dangerous consequences” for Israel.
Israel has targeted senior Hezbollah commanders since the Gaza war began.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei this week lamented the loss of Hezbollah’s fighters but said it would not bring the group “to its knees.”
Afifeh Abedi, a political researcher, said Iran was evaluating its support for Hezbollah, but noted the group’s “signficant human resources.”
Gholamzadeh added that Hezbollah’s resources ensure it will not be easily defeated.
“Hezbollah needs to be supported, but this support does not mean that they might be defeated if there is no support,” he said.
Vaez said last week’s attack on Hezbollah’s communications may have weakened the group, but it would not be completely “paralyzed even if the first two tiers of its leadership were... eliminated.”
This vulnerability, he said, could be one of the reasons for Iran and Hezbollah’s “reluctance to enter a full-fledged war.”


Iraqi PM decries ‘powerless’ UN Security Council’s inability to curb Israel’s wars on Palestine and Lebanon

Iraqi PM decries ‘powerless’ UN Security Council’s inability to curb Israel’s wars on Palestine and Lebanon
Updated 12 sec ago
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Iraqi PM decries ‘powerless’ UN Security Council’s inability to curb Israel’s wars on Palestine and Lebanon

Iraqi PM decries ‘powerless’ UN Security Council’s inability to curb Israel’s wars on Palestine and Lebanon
  • Tel Aviv pushing world to war, says Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani
  • Greater collective effort from the international community needed

Washington: Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani has blasted Israel as an “occupation entity” that routinely violates international laws as it wages “brutal” war on Gaza and Lebanon, and urged the international community to act against Tel Aviv.

Speaking at the 79th UN General Assembly meeting on Thursday, Al-Sudani said conflict in the Middle East has intensified as a result of Israel’s unfettered actions.

Israel’s war on Gaza has resulted in the killing of 41,000 people mainly women and children. And its attacks in Lebanon have killed hundreds and injured thousands, said Al-Sudani.

He expressed “disappointment” in the UN and Security Council for not deterring Israel’s “aggression” against the people of Palestine and Lebanon.

Al-Sudani said the UN faces a critical test of its ability to ensure “international security, stability and human rights.”

“Today we are witnessing the UN charter and international laws being violated and the right of self-determination is ignored,” he said.

“The world is being pushed toward full-scale confrontation and conflict while the Security Council is powerless and without a role.”

He said that while there have been commendable individual efforts to resolve conflicts in the Middle East, a greater collective effort from the international community was needed.

“In occupied Palestine, we are witnessing a people who are being attacked by an occupying military force displacing millions without being deterred and killing thousands of people.”

Al-Sudani added that Israeli officials were acting with impunity. “Public statements of mass-starving of people and even using nuclear weapons against them by senior officials of the occupation entity go on without any measures to deter them.”

He said the Palestinian people should be protected from the Israeli military occupation. However, Israel’s actions have rendered international law merely “ink on paper.”

On Lebanon, Al-Sudani said Iraq would support its neighbor, and continue to send medical and other aid to the country.

“Iraq today and its government and its people, under the directive of the supreme religious authorities stands with Lebanon and its brotherly people as

it faces a new page of brutal aggression that seeks to plunge the region into a brutal conflict which is something we have warned against,” he said.

On domestic issues, Al-Sudani said his government was working to rebuild the economy and improve public services.

The ultimate aim was to transform Iraq into a regional trade hub between the Middle East and Europe.


Lebanese FM calls for urgent international help amid Israeli attacks

Lebanese FM calls for urgent international help amid Israeli attacks
Updated 28 min 46 sec ago
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Lebanese FM calls for urgent international help amid Israeli attacks

Lebanese FM calls for urgent international help amid Israeli attacks
  • Crisis threatens international peace, security, Abdallah Bou Habib tells UN General Assembly
  • ‘Has Israel not had enough of the endless war since 1948? When will it be time for Israel to give a real opportunity for peace?’

NEW YORK CITY: Lebanon’s foreign minister on Thursday stressed the urgent need for international intervention to address the crisis in his country, which has seen Israeli attacks kill 700 citizens since Monday.

“Lebanon is currently enduring a crisis which is threatening its very existence,” Abdallah Bou Habib told the UN General Assembly.

The crisis “will transform into a black hole that will engulf regional (and) international peace and security” if the world continues to remain “immobile,” he said.

Bou Habib welcomed the joint declaration by the US and France on Wednesday for a 21-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, and demanded that all possible measures be adopted for it to be implemented.

He said what Lebanon is experiencing is “a consequence of the absence of a lasting (and) sustainable solution,” and “not the cause of an absence of a sustainable solution. The cause is the occupation.”

Despite the UN’s inability to protect Lebanon from Israeli aggression, Bou Habib said his country remains committed to the organization’s role as a “frontline of defense.”

Lebanon has repeatedly made efforts for peace, he added, citing the 2022 maritime demarcation deal and the country’s proposed framework for peace along its border with Israel.

However, “Israel has continuously eluded the issue or disregarded the matter,” which is why “we’re seeking refuge in the decisions under international law,” he said, reiterating Lebanon’s call for a “ceasefire on all fronts.”

Bou Habib also asked for international support in “reinforcing the deployment of the Lebanese army south of the Litani River,” and delivering equipment needed to increase troop numbers in the area.

He emphasized Lebanon’s commitment to peace and security, saying despite its economic crisis, the government has decided to send 100,000 additional soldiers to the south of the country.

He expressed gratitude for the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, which has “significantly contributed to stability and peace in the region” since its inception.

“Has Israel not had enough of the endless war since 1948? When will it be time for Israel to give a real opportunity for peace?” Bou Habib asked.

He said Lebanon and other Arab countries have “clearly, without any ambiguity, categorically embraced peace” through the Arab Peace Initiative in 2002, and it is now “incumbent upon Israel” to choose peace and break the cycle of violence in the region.


Netanyahu vows to use ‘full force’ against Hezbollah and dims hopes for a ceasefire

Netanyahu vows to use ‘full force’ against Hezbollah and dims hopes for a ceasefire
Updated 27 September 2024
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Netanyahu vows to use ‘full force’ against Hezbollah and dims hopes for a ceasefire

Netanyahu vows to use ‘full force’ against Hezbollah and dims hopes for a ceasefire
  • Israel said Wednesday its air force had struck some 280 Hezbollah targets across Lebanon
  • Nearly 700 people have been killed in Lebanon this week as Israel dramatically escalated strikes

NEW YORK: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday vowed to carry out “full force” strikes against Hezbollah until it ceases firing rockets across the border, dimming hopes for a ceasefire proposal put forth by US and European officials.
Israel carried out a new strike in the Lebanese capital, which it said killed a senior Hezbollah commander, and the militant group launched dozens of rockets into Israel. Tens of thousands of Israeli and Lebanese people living near their countries’ border have been displaced by the fighting.
Netanyahu spoke as he landed in New York to attend the annual UN General Assembly meeting, where US and European officials were putting heavy pressure on both sides of the conflict to accept a proposed 21-day halt in the fighting to give time for diplomacy and avert all-out war.
Nearly 700 people have been killed in Lebanon this week as Israel dramatically escalated strikes, saying it is targeting Hezbollah’s military capacities. Israeli leaders say they are determined to stop the group’s cross-border attacks, which began after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack that ignited the war in Gaza.
Israel’s “policy is clear,” Netanyahu said. “We are continuing to strike Hezbollah with full force. And we will not stop until we reach all our goals, chief among them the return of the residents of the north securely to their homes.”
Just before his comments, the Israeli military said it killed a Hezbollah drone commander, Mohammed Hussein Surour, in an airstrike in the suburbs of Beirut. Hezbollah did not immediately comment on the claim. The Health Ministry said two people were killed and 15 wounded in the strike.
The strike gutted an apartment in a residential building in Dahiyeh, the mainly Shiite suburb where Hezbollah has a strong presence, according to Associated Press photos of the scene.
Over the past week, Israel has carried out several strikes in Beirut targeting senior Hezbollah commanders. One strike in eastern Lebanon on Thursday killed 20 people, most of them Syrian migrants, according to Lebanese health officials.
Israel hit 75 sites early Thursday across southern and eastern Lebanon and launched a new wave of strikes in the evening, the military said. Throughout the day, Hezbollah fired some 175 projectiles into Israel, the Israeli military said. Most were intercepted or fell in open areas, sparking some wildfires, though one rocket hit a street in a town near the northern city of Safed.
Israel has talked of a possible ground invasion into Lebanon to drive Hezbollah — an Iranian-backed Shiite group that is the strongest armed force in Lebanon — away from the border. It has moved thousands of troops to the north in preparation. Some 100,000 Lebanese have fled their homes in the past week, streaming into Beirut and points further north.
In Israel, military vehicles transported tanks and armored vehicles toward the country’s northern border with Lebanon a day after commanders issued a call-up of reservists. Several tanks arrived in Kiryat Shmona, a hard-hit town just several miles from the border.
The escalation has raised fears of a repeat – or worse – of the 2006 war between the two sides that wreaked destruction across southern Lebanon and other parts of the country and saw heavy Hezbollah rocket fire on Israeli cities.

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“Another full-scale war could be devastating for both Israel and Lebanon,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said after talks with his British and Australian counterparts in London.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was at the UN meeting with Israeli officials over the truce proposal. Speaking in an interview with MSNBC, he said major powers, the Europeans and Arab nations were united, “everyone speaking with one clear voice about the need to get that ceasefire in the north.”
“I can’t speak for him,” Blinken said of Netanyahu.
Hezbollah has not yet responded to the proposal. Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati welcomed it, but his government has no sway over the group.
Netanyahu’s office downplayed the initiative, saying in a statement that it was only a proposal.
One of Netanyahu’s far-right governing partners threatened on Thursday to suspend cooperation with his government if it signs onto a temporary ceasefire with Hezbollah – and to quit completely if a permanent deal is reached. It was the latest sign of displeasure from Netanyahu’s allies toward international ceasefire efforts.
“If a temporary ceasefire becomes permanent, we will resign from the government,” said National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, head of the Jewish Power party.
If Ben-Gvir leaves the coalition, Netanyahu would lose his parliamentary majority and could see his government come toppling down, though opposition leaders have said they would offer support for a ceasefire deal.
Hezbollah has insisted it would halt its strikes only if there is a ceasefire in Gaza, where Israel has battled Hamas for nearly a year. That appears out of reach despite months of negotiations led by the United States, Egypt and Qatar.
One day after Hamas’ Oct 7 attack on southern Israel that triggered the war in Gaza, Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel, bringing Israeli counterfire and a cycle of reprisals that has gone on near daily since. Hezbollah says its barrages are a show of support for Palestinians and that it is targeting Israeli military facilities, though rockets have also hit civilian areas.
Before this week, the cross-border exchanges had killed about 600 people in Lebanon, mostly militants but including more than 100 civilians, and about four dozen people in Israel, roughly half of them soldiers and the rest civilians. The fighting also forced tens of thousands to flee homes on both sides of the border.
Israel says its escalated strikes across Lebanon the past week are targeting Hezbollah rocket launchers and other military infrastructure. Since Monday, strikes have killed more than 690 people in Lebanon, around a quarter of them women and children, according to local health authorities.
The campaign opened with what is widely believed to be an Israeli attack on Sept. 18 and 19 detonating thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah, killing at least 39 people and maiming thousands more, including civilians.
Hezbollah in turn has fired hundreds of rockets into Israel. Several people in Israel have been wounded. On Wednesday, the group fired on Tel Aviv for the first time with a longer-range missile that was intercepted.
Early Thursday, an Israeli airstrike hit a building housing Syrian workers and their families near the ancient city of Baalbek in Lebanon’s eastern Bekaa Valley. The Lebanese Health Ministry said 19 Syrians and a Lebanese were killed, one of the deadliest single strikes in Israel’s intensified air campaign.
Hussein Salloum, a local official in Younine, said most of the dead were women and children. The state news agency had initially reported that 23 people were dead.
Lebanon, with a population of around 6 million, hosts nearly 780,000 registered Syrian refugees and hundreds of thousands who are unregistered — the world’s highest refugee population per capita.


Blinken tells Israel escalation will make civilian return more difficult

Blinken tells Israel escalation will make civilian return more difficult
Updated 27 September 2024
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Blinken tells Israel escalation will make civilian return more difficult

Blinken tells Israel escalation will make civilian return more difficult
  • Despite Israel’s stance, the US and France sought to keep prospects alive for an immediate 21-day truce they proposed on Wednesday
  • Washington has faced mounting global and domestic criticism over its backing of Israel amid the escalation of conflict in Lebanon

WASHINGTON: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Israel on Thursday that further escalation to the conflict involving Lebanon will only make it harder for civilians to return home on both sides of the border, the State Department said.
Israel rejected global calls on Thursday for a ceasefire with the Hezbollah movement, defying its biggest ally in Washington and pressing ahead with strikes that have killed hundreds in Lebanon and heightened fears of an all-out regional war.
Despite Israel’s stance, the US and France sought to keep prospects alive for an immediate 21-day truce they proposed on Wednesday, and said negotiations continued, including on the sidelines of a United Nations meeting in New York.
“The Secretary discussed the importance of reaching an agreement on the 21 day ceasefire across the Israel-Lebanon border,” the State Department said in a statement referring to talks between Blinken and Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer.
“He underscored that further escalation of the conflict will only make that objective (of civilian return) more difficult.”
The State Department added that Blinken also discussed efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and steps that Israel needs to take to improve delivery of humanitarian assistance in the enclave where nearly the entire 2.3 million population is displaced and a hunger crisis exists.
US President Joe Biden laid out a three-phase ceasefire proposal for Gaza on May 31 but the deal has run into obstacles, mostly over Israeli demands to maintain presence in the Philadelphi corridor on Gaza’s border with Egypt and specifics about exchanges of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.
Washington has faced mounting global and domestic criticism over its backing of Israel amid the escalation of conflict in Lebanon, where Israeli strikes have killed hundreds in recent days.
Critics say Washington has not leveraged its assistance to pressure Israel into accepting ceasefire calls. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is due to address the United Nations General Assembly on Friday.
The latest bloodshed in the decades old Israeli-Palestinian conflict was triggered on Oct. 7 when Palestinian Hamas militants attacked Israel, killing 1,200 and taking about 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. Israel’s subequent military assault on Gaza has killed over 41,000, according to Palestinian health authorities.


What obstacles stand in the way of an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire?

What obstacles stand in the way of an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire?
Updated 27 September 2024
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What obstacles stand in the way of an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire?

What obstacles stand in the way of an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire?
  • Hezbollah wants a truce in Gaza as a condition for striking a deal with Israel
  • For Israel, the condition is a high price to pay and Netanyahu's partners want him to fight on

Israel and Hezbollah each have strong incentives to heed international calls for a ceasefire that could avert all-out war — but that doesn’t mean they will.
Hezbollah is reeling after a sophisticated attack on personal devices killed and wounded hundreds of its members. Israeli airstrikes have killed two top commanders in Beirut in less than a week, and warplanes have pounded what Israel says are Hezbollah sites across large parts of Lebanon, killing over 600 people.
So far, Israel clearly has the upper hand militarily, which could make it less willing to compromise. But it’s unlikely to achieve its goal of halting Hezbollah rocket fire with air power alone, and a threatened ground invasion of Lebanon poses major risks.
After nearly a year of war, Israeli troops are still fighting Hamas in Gaza. And Hezbollah is a much more formidable force.
“Hezbollah has yet to employ 10 percent of its capabilities,” military affairs correspondent Yossi Yehoshua wrote in Yediot Ahronot, Israel’s largest daily newspaper. “The euphoria that is evident among the decision-makers and some of the public should be placed back in the attic: the situation is still complex and flammable.”
The United States and its allies, including Gulf Arab countries, have tried to offer a way out, proposing an immediate 21-day ceasefire to “provide space for diplomacy.”
But any deal would require both sides to back away from their core demands, and they may decide the price is too high.
 

Hezbollah wants a truce in Gaza, too
Hezbollah began launching rockets, drones and missiles into northern Israel after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack in the south triggered the war in Gaza. Hezbollah and Hamas are both allies of Iran, and the Lebanese militant group says it is acting in solidarity with Palestinians.
Israel has responded with waves of airstrikes. Overall, the fighting has killed dozens of people in Israel, more than 1,500 in Lebanon and forced the evacuation of tens of thousands of people from communities on both sides of the border.
Hezbollah has said it will halt the attacks if there is a ceasefire in Gaza. But months of negotiations over Gaza led by the United States, Qatar and Egypt have repeatedly stalled, and Hamas might be less motivated to reach a deal if it thinks Hezbollah and Iran will join a wider war against Israel.
For Hezbollah, halting its rocket fire without securing any tangible gains for the Palestinians would be seen as a capitulation to Israeli pressure, with all of its recent casualties suffered in vain.
Any deal involving a ceasefire in Gaza would be a hard sell for Israel, which would view it as a reward for Hezbollah rocket attacks that have displaced tens of thousands of its citizens for nearly a year.
For Israel, a ceasefire might not be enough
Israel’s goals in Lebanon are far narrower than in Gaza, where Prime Minister Benjmain Netanyahu has vowed “total victory” over Hamas and the return of scores of hostages.
Israel wants the tens of thousands of people who were evacuated from northern communities nearly a year ago to return safely to their homes. And it wants to ensure that Hezbollah never carries out an Oct. 7-style attack.
A weekslong ceasefire — which would give Hezbollah a chance to reset after major attacks on its chain of command and communications — might not be enough.

Few Israelis are likely to return if they know it’s only temporary, and even an agreement for a lasting ceasefire would face skepticism.
The UN Security Council resolution that ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah called for the militants to withdraw north of the Litani River, some 30 kilometers (18 miles) from the border, and for the area between to be patrolled by Lebanese forces and UN peacekeepers.
Israel says that provision was never implemented and is likely to demand additional guarantees in any new ceasefire. But Hezbollah is far stronger than Lebanon’s regular armed forces and the UN detachment, neither of which would be able to impose any agreement by force.
Netanyahu’s partners want him to fight on
Netanyahu leads the most religious and nationalist government in Israel’s history. His far-right coalition partners have threatened to bring down his government if he makes too many concessions to Hamas, and they are also likely to oppose any deal with Hezbollah.
Bezalel Smotrich, Netanyahu’s hard-line finance minister, said Thursday that Israel’s campaign in the north “should only end in one scenario – crushing Hezbollah and denying its ability to harm residents of the north.”
Itamar Ben-Gvir, the far-right National Security Minister, said he would not support a temporary ceasefire and would leave the government if it becomes permanent.
Although opposition parties would likely support the ceasefire, the defection of his partners would eventually bring down Netanyahu’s government and force early elections, potentially leaving him even more exposed to investigations into the security failures of Oct. 7 and corruption charges that predate the war. It could even mean the end of his long political career.
Iran has sent mixed signals
In Lebanon, Prime Minister Najib Mikati has welcomed the ceasefire proposal, but he has little power to impose an agreement on Hezbollah.
Iran, which helped establish Hezbollah in the 1980s and is the source of its advanced weapons, has more sway over the group, but it has yet to express a position on any ceasefire. It likely fears a wider war that could bring it into direct conflict with the United States, but can’t stand by indefinitely while its most powerful proxy force is dismantled.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, a relative moderate elected over the summer, struck a more conciliatory tone toward the West than his predecessors when he addressed the UN General Assembly on Tuesday.
But he had sharp words for Israel and said its heavy bombardment of Lebanon in recent days “cannot go unanswered.”