Israelis, Palestinians share negativity but there may be hope
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A recent survey of Israelis and Palestinians showed negative views of each other and low levels of support for a two-state solution. However, the detailed study also found that providing respondents with more options, incentives and context opens up some space for future compromise.
The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah and the International Program in Conflict Resolution and Mediation at Tel Aviv University recently released findings from a joint survey conducted in July. The poll found Jewish Israelis and Palestinians in the Occupied Territories expressing very high levels of mistrust and fear toward each other.
Some of the findings among Jewish Israelis and Palestinians represented nearly mirror images of each other. In the current war, 66 percent of Jewish Israelis believe that the Palestinians intend “to commit genocide against us” and 61 percent of Palestinians said that Jewish Israelis seek to commit genocide against Palestinians. Similarly, 27 percent of Jewish Israelis and 27 percent of Palestinians believe that the other side is trying to conquer land and expel their people. Unsurprisingly, trust was very low between the two sides; 10 percent of Jewish Israelis and 6 percent of Palestinians said it was possible to trust each other.
Majorities on both sides believe that the other side has completely lost its sense of humanity
Kerry Boyd Anderson
Jewish Israelis and Palestinians see each other in very negative terms. Majorities on both sides believe that the other side has completely lost its sense of humanity. When asked whether the “victimization” of their own people was worse compared to the other, in terms of suffering from persecution and injustice, 84 percent of Israelis and 83 percent of Palestinians claim the greatest level of suffering for their own people. People in both groups also tend to believe that the other side’s actions justify violent responses; 81 percent of Palestinians said that Gazans’ suffering over years of Israeli mistreatment justified Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, while 84 percent of Jewish Israelis said that the Hamas attack justified Israel’s massive military response in Gaza.
These extremely negative views of the other side are reflected in low levels of support for a two-state solution. At a time when many international leaders are consistently calling for such an approach, in the July survey, only 21 percent of Israeli Jews supported the idea, while 40 percent of Palestinians in the Occupied Territories and 72 percent of Palestinian citizens of Israel did. Indeed, the survey noted that, among all Israelis, less than a third supported a two-state solution — a view that is reflected in the clear lack of support among Israel’s current leaders.
While some world leaders often say that a two-state solution is the only real option, there are other potential approaches to the conflict. One approach is based on conquest and repression. Today, significantly more Jewish Israelis support indefinite occupation over a two-state outcome. The survey found that 42 percent of Jewish Israelis prefer the idea of annexing the West Bank “without equal rights for Palestinians,” compared to 21 percent who support a two-state solution. Thirty-three percent of Palestinians support a single state without equal rights for Israeli Jews — a notable minority but less than the number of Palestinians who support two states.
Another potential way to resolve the conflict would be the creation of a single state with equal rights for all Jews and Arabs within the current state of Israel and the Occupied Territories. The survey found that 25 percent of Palestinians in the Occupied Territories, 49 percent of Palestinian citizens of Israel and only 14 percent of Israeli Jews support the idea.
Another option is a confederation. There are several potential models, but the basic idea would involve independent Jewish and Palestinian states working together under a form of confederation. Support among Palestinians, particular those in Gaza, has risen, to 35 percent today. Palestinian citizens of Israel view the idea favorably, with 52 percent support. However, a confederation is not popular with Israeli Jews, with only 12 percent in favor — a decrease from 2022.
These survey results are disheartening. Trust between the two sides is almost nonexistent
Kerry Boyd Anderson
These survey results are disheartening. Trust between the two sides is almost nonexistent. Only small minorities of Jewish Israelis support a two-state solution (21 percent), an equal one-state solution (14 percent) or a confederation (12 percent). Indeed, the survey suggests that annexing the West Bank without equal rights for Palestinians is the preferred option for many Jewish Israelis (42 percent).
Among Palestinians, levels of support for the various models are higher than among Jewish Israelis, but are not especially high generally and a third support the idea of retaking land without equal rights for Jewish Israelis. Palestinian citizens of Israel show much stronger levels of support for various forms of compromise, but their influence over any outcome is very limited.
However, the survey also offered participants multiple other scenarios, beyond just asking about support for a particular approach. For example, when presented with an option between a regional war versus a regional peace deal based on a two-state approach, the levels of support for a two-state solution among Palestinians and Israelis rose significantly, with support from 67 percent of Palestinians and 55 percent of Israeli Jews.
The survey also found large portions of society that do not know what model for the future they would prefer. Thirty-four percent of Israeli Jews and 44 percent of Palestinians said they do not know or want something else when presented with two-state, unequal one-state or equal one-state alternatives. That result probably reflects a lot of frustration, but also suggests that there is room for persuasion or new ideas.
The detailed survey highlighted the dark reality that mutual perceptions between Jewish Israelis and Palestinians pose an enormous obstacle to peace. However, it also demonstrated that presenting people with solutions placed in real-world contexts and experimenting with different types of incentives presented some opportunities.
- Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 18 years of experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Her previous positions include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica. X: @KBAresearch
