Military-opposition standoff threatens Pakistan’s stability

ISLAMABAD: After Pakistan police stormed parliament’s premises to arrest several opposition lawmakers on terrorism charges, analysts say a standoff between former prime minister Imran Khan’s party and the country’s powerful military threatens to reduce politics to a clash between the two sides.
Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party staged a rare demonstration in the capital Islamabad this week, the largest since the former cricketer was jailed last year.
Shortly after the rally, police cut power to the parliament compound and plainclothes officers forced their way in, where PTI lawmakers were taking refuge to avoid possible arrest.
“It is increasingly becoming a clash between the opposition and the military,” political analyst Zahid Hussain told AFP.
“The way lawmakers were arrested will further escalate the politics of confrontation... it will further polarize the country,” he added.
“This approach is creating a dangerously unstable situation.”
PTI has been sparring with the military since Khan was deposed two years ago.
The confrontation come to a head after the former cricket star’s first arrest on corruption charges in May 2023.
His supporters waged days of sometimes violent protests and attacked military installations, sparking a sweeping crackdown on the PTI led by the army — Pakistan’s most powerful institution.
But the clampdown failed to diminish Khan’s popularity and candidates backed by the former premier won the most seats in 2024 polls — marred by allegations of widespread rigging.
A coalition government was cobbled together at the eleventh hour to stop PTI from returning to power, with the army-backed Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) taking control of the nation of over 240 million people.
The standoff has birthed an unprecedented backlash against the military, particularly among Pakistan’s social media-savvy youth who overwhelmingly support Khan.
“This is a particularly nasty confrontation in the sense that Khan has been unusually withering and personal in his criticism of the army,” said Michael Kugelman, a Pakistan specialist at the US-based Wilson Center.
Khan rose to power in 2018 with military support but was removed in 2022 after a fallout with the generals.
He was banned from the February elections, and while three of his convictions have been partially overturned on appeal, remains in prison on other charges.
The military “is unable to dissipate the anger the anxiety among people and reduce support for Khan,” military analyst and author Ayesha Siddiqa told AFP.
“There is nothing to indicate the situation will improve.”
Analysts say the military — which has ruled the nation for nearly half its history and pulls the strings even when not governing — barred several social media platforms to restrict pro-Khan messaging ahead of the elections.
Social media platform X has been banned since the polls when it was used to air allegations of rigging, and Internet disruptions have been ongoing for the past month.
Authorities in July also raided PTI’s headquarters in Islamabad over alleged “anti-state digital campaigns.” The military said it is battling so-called “digital terrorism.”
Kugelman said that while the military has imprisoned Khan and his allies — tactics it has employed successfully against past opponents — widespread Internet availability and soaring social media usage in Pakistan means “it’s not as easy for the army as it used to be.”
There are online “bastions of dissent,” where Khan’s supporters continue their standoff with the military.
An ongoing economic crisis has sent prices soaring and the government running to the International Monetary Fund for assistance, while militant groups have made a resurgence, meaning Pakistan is stretched in several directions.
“One of the most practical consequences of this ongoing confrontation is that other policy challenges, urgent policy challenges are being overlooked,” Kugelman said.
However, analysts say Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif lacks the capacity to initiate dialogue with Khan, who has accused the coalition government of operating with a stolen mandate.
“It’s a political existential issue,” political analyst Rasul Baksh Rais told AFP.
“The government’s political survival lies in its current actions, while the PTI’s survival depends on its resistance.”