No clear favorite yet, but Kamala Harris emerges as formidable opponent

The surprise of the American presidential elections debate was the emergence of Vice President Kamala Harris as a formidable opponent, but this will not decide November’s outcome, which is still a toss-up between her and former President Donald Trump.

The key question is how this face-off has affected the opinions of voters in the country’s key swing states. However, if Trump had thought he would gain the initiative, he was proven wrong. Harris, having already had a meteoric rise in opinion polls, seemed to have placed the former president on the defensive.

The Democratic Party candidate came with a thoughtful strategy, and he presented, as she noted convincingly, the same old arguments used against former opponents. She managed to seize the initiative and win the debate, even in the opinion of those opposed to her. Harris showed that she is ready for her country’s highest political office.

Trump missed the opportunity to speak about his record in the Middle East

Dr. Amal Mudallali

Heading into the debate, polls showed Trump slightly ahead, or neck-and-neck with Harris, especially in the swing states that will decide the elections.

The New York Times/Siena poll a day before the debate showed that in the seven swing states Harris was leading with 1 percent, 49 percent to 47 percent, in Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina, while Trump was leading in Georgia 49 percent to 48 percent, and they were tied in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona.

Harris came into the debate with 28 percent of likely voters saying they did not know her and wanted more information about her policy positions. Defining herself more clearly to these voters will likely be the key variable that will determine her success in November.

She has other challenges. Polls are showing that her surge in popularity has started to stall, indicating that the honeymoon she had after replacing President Joe Biden as party candidate, is over.

During the debate, Harris faced intense pressure to perform and tackle Trump on his record, especially his convictions and character. The former president meanwhile had to discredit Harris as a worse copy of Biden and highlight issues on the economy and immigration.

The consensus view on the outcome appears to be that she managed to get under his skin and bait him, so that he appeared defensive rather than focus on her record and decisions as a key player in the Biden administration.

The former president had a strong start and accused the Biden-Harris administration of “destroying the economy.” He highlighted the effects of high inflation on living standards, saying “the economy is a disaster for the middle class, but also for every class.” Harris spoke about creating an “opportunity economy” to help the middle class.

The candidates sparred on issues ranging from immigration to abortion, and accused each other of being a threat to democracy. But Harris knew how to provoke Trump by questioning the size of his rallies, and accusing him of wanting to implement the controversial Project 2025, allegedly backed by wealthy, rightwing conservatives, if elected.

Trump has always denied any connection to the project and he repeated that during the debate. But Harris doubled down on the claim, looking into the camera, to indicate she was addressing the public and voters, saying “he has no plan for you, he has only tax cuts for the rich.”

She also accused him or playing a role in the 2021 attack on Congress, but Trump said he had nothing to do with it and was just asked to give a speech. He shifted the blame on former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, saying she rejected his offer to deploy the National Guard to protect Congress.

Trump further accused the Democrats of orchestrating court cases against him so that they could win the election.

On foreign policy, they accused each other of being inadequate. Harris said Trump was “weak and wrong,” adding that world leaders were “laughing” at him. He countered by saying that leaders “of other countries think they (Biden and Harris) are weak.”

On the Middle East, Harris repeated her previous statements on Israel and Gaza by saying she supports Israel’s right to defend itself. But she also highlighted the suffering of the Palestinians, and said she supports a two-state solution, and self-determination for the Palestinians.

Trump missed the opportunity to speak about his record in the Middle East. He did not mention the Abraham Accords between Israel and several Arab countries, which he considers his achievement in the region. Instead, he accused Harris of hating Israel, and said “Israel wouldn’t exist within two years” if she wins the election. He also accused her of “hating the Arab population” without explaining how he came to this conclusion.

Ukraine was another hot and divisive issue between the two candidates. There was considerable criticism after the debate of Trump’s answer to a question about whether he wants Ukraine to win, and if this would be in America’s interest. Trump said he wants to “get this war finished and just get it done” and proposed a negotiated deal.

Election day is weeks away and the candidates have ample opportunity to make up for their mistakes

Dr. Amal Mudallali

In contrast, Harris recounted the Biden administration’s help to Ukraine and said: “If Donald Trump were president, (Russia President Vladimir) Putin would be sitting in Kiev right now.” She said Putin was a threat to Europe.

Even on the withdrawal from Afghanistan, considered the biggest misstep on foreign policy for the Biden administration, Harris managed to use it against Trump, accusing him of “negotiating directly with a terrorist organization called the Taliban.”

Trump’s missed opportunities were greeted with disappointment and criticism from some Republicans, especially on Capitol Hill, and among his staunchest allies, including Sen. Lindsey Graham.

Trump and his campaign officials blamed the moderators of the debate and ABC News for their bad night. As for Trump’s avid supporters, there seems to be nothing that will change their minds about him, especially not a debate.

Trump did manage to make a potent point during his closing remarks, by asking Harris why she did not carry out tasks she had promised the public while in the White House. This is surely a valid question, and should stick in the minds of voters.

Trump might have lost the battle, but he could still win the war if he manages to keep his lead in the swing states. Election day is weeks away and the candidates have ample opportunity to make up for their mistakes, or commit fatal ones.

• Dr. Amal Mudallali is a visiting research scholar at Princeton University and former Lebanese ambassador to the UN.