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China has long been a world leader in efforts to woo African nations. But as Beijing hosted the triennial gathering of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation this week, attended by more than 50 heads of state, there is intensifying global competition to gain a strategic advantage on the continent and in the wider Global South.
Not only is the US stepping up its presence in Africa, so too are other key powers including Russia, nations in Western Europe such as France, Germany and the UK, Gulf Cooperation Council member states, Turkiye, and India.
Yet among all of them it is China that has shown the greatest overall interest in Africa in recent decades. This was underlined this week during the forum, which is the main multilateral coordination mechanism between China and Africa, when President Xi Jinping pledged $50 billion in loans and investments to the continent over the next three years.
China surpassed the US as Africa’s biggest trading partner in 2009, and trade volume reached a record high of $282 billion in 2023, a huge increase from $12 billion just a quarter of a century ago. About a fifth of all African exports now go to China, the value of which in US dollars has quadrupled since 2001.
Beyond the activities during the forum, data published in August by Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center revealed that Chinese lenders approved loans worth $4.61 billion to Africa in 2023. This marked the first annual increase in the amount since 2016, and the flow of investment has dropped significantly since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
Between 2000 and 2023, the value of Chinese loans to Africa totaled $182.28 billion, as Beijing became the top lender to nations on the continent. This was equivalent to more than 60 percent of World Bank lending and about five times the value of sovereign loans from the African Development Bank. The majority of the Chinese funds were invested in the energy, transport, and information and communications technology sectors.
The high priority Beijing places on Africa is illustrated by the fact that top Chinese officials, including the president, premier and foreign minister, have reportedly made about 80 visits to more than 40 African countries in the past decade alone.
Beijing is particularly keen to better connect its Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure project with the development of the continent; about 40 African countries have signed up so far.
While China is therefore ahead of the pack in Africa, global competition is growing. From an initially stilted response, for example, the US is now also stepping up its interest in the continent.
Beijing’s foreign direct investment in Africa has surpassed that of Washington for more than a decade, according to the China-Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hopkins University. The value of goods exchanged between the US and African nations amounted to less than $70 billion in 2023, a reduction of about 50 percent over the past two decades, and the US is now only the continent’s third-biggest trading partner, behind not only China but India.
The high priority Beijing places on Africa is illustrated by the fact that top Chinese officials have reportedly made about 80 visits to more than 40 African countries in the past decade alone.
Andrew Hammond
Alarm bells have been ringing in Washington not only about the China’s growing economic edge in Africa but the geopolitical implications of this. One initiative with which President Joe Biden has sought to turbocharge US policy on the continent is “Prosper Africa,” in an attempt to substantially increase trade and investment with a focus on sectors such as health, energy and climate, and digital technology.
An example of the type of projects in which the US is involved is an initiative to reboot the Lobito Atlantic Railway, a transportation link stretching more than 800 miles across Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, countries rich in critical metals, to create a logistical corridor connecting with the port of Lobito in Angola.
Despite this fresh approach, however, the US faces headwinds in Africa. This was evident in a Gallup report published in April that showed the median approval rating for the US on the continent fell by three percentage points last year, from 59 to 56 percent. Meanwhile, China’s approval rating increased from 52 to 58 percent during that time.
Beyond the great powers of China and the US, states in Western Europe, notably the UK and France, are also showing more active interest in Africa.
For example, the UK’s new foreign secretary, David Lammy, who is of Caribbean heritage and the first non-white holder of the post, has indicated he is keen to prioritize improved post-Brexit ties with the Global South, including Africa.
Given Britain’s long-standing historical ties with Africa, and Commonwealth countries there in particular, ministers regularly state that they are keen to combine the UK’s heritage as a great global trading nation with a prosperous, growing Africa. It therefore seems likely that the recently elected Labour government, which replaced the previous Conservative administration just over two months ago, will host more UK-Africa investment summits.
France, under President Emmanuel Macron, is also interested in raising its profile on the continent and its efforts include hosting a series of summits. Africa has long been a foreign policy priority for Paris, stemming from colonial times, as it has been for London.
Russia, too, has stepped up its efforts to woo Africa. Its trade with the continent has grown significantly during President Vladimir Putin’s time in power and he is keen to entrench Moscow’s foothold there. He hosted the first Africa-Russia summit in 2019, as part of his attempts to expand his country’s international influence.
The power game in progress between China, the US and powers in Europe, Asia and the Middle East is therefore only likely to grow in intensity during the remainder of this decade, offering countries on the continent more diplomatic options moving forward. This increased attention to Africa reflects not only the growth potential of emerging markets there but also international security considerations.
• Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.