Lebanese must pursue real change no matter the obstacles

The debates on Lebanon’s neutrality and on federalism have been reignited following Hezbollah’s unilateral decision to join Hamas — albeit modestly — in the current war with Israel.

The demand for neutrality has reemerged on Lebanese social media. Many rightly claim Lebanon has suffered enough from war and economic decay and that it needs to insulate itself from all sides of the conflict. This is also a debate about the identity or identities of the country. And, as it is built today on sectarianism, it is important to note that a majority of Christians are favorable to neutrality, while a vast majority of Shiites oppose it and a soft majority of Sunnis and Druze are against it too.

It was in this context that the former leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, rejected the idea of Lebanon adopting neutrality. He argued that neutrality is impossible for Lebanon due to its ongoing state of hostility with Israel, which has persisted since the 1949 truce. He also noted that neutrality would require international consensus, similar to Switzerland’s experience in 1815, but emphasized that Lebanon, as an Arab country and a member of the Arab League, cannot discuss neutrality while it remains in conflict with Israel.

Some analysts attributed this stance to the July rocket attack on Majdal Shams, which killed 12 children from the Druze community and for which Jumblatt rejected the Israeli statements. However, the Druze leader asserted that his position on this matter has been consistent and unchanged since the beginning of his political career. Jumblatt reads geopolitical shifts extremely well. After all, he famously foresaw the degradation of the anti-Syrian and anti-Hezbollah movements coming with the loss of Western support. He was not wrong.

Many rightly claim Lebanon has suffered enough from war and economic decay and that it needs to insulate itself

Khaled Abou Zahr

The timing of his declaration came with a tentative aim to ease tensions internally, but I am convinced that he sees that the current US administration and a potential Harris presidency would be tougher on Israel. Despite a few contradictions, most US declarations and actions reveal this shift. The decision by the UK to stop allowing the export of key military components to Israel is a clear signal. Yet, the reality is that this will never benefit Lebanon, only Hezbollah. Moreover, Lebanon has gained nothing but destruction from this engagement. Jumblatt, in that scenario, seeks survival in case of this turnaround. But the Druze and Lebanese deserve more than to just get by and survive simply because the struggle is from within.

Can neutrality bring stability and is it possible to achieve? If we were to consider Lebanon’s status, we realize that Israel withdrew unilaterally from South Lebanon. And, when it comes to the Shebaa Farms, the Syrian regime has kept it in limbo, refusing to acknowledge whether it is Syrian or Lebanese. And so, there is in theory no reason for Lebanon to continue its resistance. But the Syrian hook reveals how external geopolitical struggles translate into battles from within.

It is also evident that neutrality alone is not a solution. There needs to be a new political system that dissipates the risk of implosions or that pushes the country to follow any new confrontational political ideology. Lebanon can and should become immune to this historical cycle, which has kept destroying the country, but only if change comes from within. And this in no way extracts it from the region, but rather soothes all sides.

Everyone agrees on the need for change. Those hoping for it to come through foreign interference and the application of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 live in a delusional world — especially on the article aimed at ending the presence of all armed militias. No one is coming to save Lebanon. Not a single soldier will come to force the application of any UN resolution. Hence, as long as Hezbollah carries weapons and is legitimized by the international community, there is little hope of change unless the Lebanese take the matter into their own hands.

No one is coming to save Lebanon. Not a single soldier will come to force the application of any UN resolution

Khaled Abou Zahr

Waiting for regional powers to grant Lebanon neutrality or even federalism is a useless exercise. It is the presence of a strong movement on the ground that will make it a reality. And this movement needs to bond across each religious community in Lebanon. It is high time to reestablish sovereignty in Lebanon and unite for its flag.

It is interesting to notice that, while Jumblatt mentions Switzerland as a difficult example to follow, that country is now dipping its toes outside of neutrality. A Swiss security commission last week recommended revising Switzerland’s traditional military neutrality to allow for closer defense cooperation with NATO and the EU. The report, prompted by heightened security concerns following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, suggests a more flexible application of neutrality, aligning it with the UN Charter and emphasizing the distinction between aggressor and victim.

The commission urged deeper cooperation with NATO and the EU to enhance defense capabilities, increase the defense budget and strengthen the arms industry to address emerging threats, such as hybrid warfare. This report sent shock waves through the population, especially as the Swiss parliament voted against closer ties with NATO only in June.

It is indeed a difficult geopolitical and military environment that once again puts Lebanon on a dangerous path. Just as Switzerland is analyzing a historical change, there is a global sentiment of an impending clash that will shake the current world order. This increases the urgency for Lebanon to transform, starting from its political system and its approach to foreign policy.

Unfortunately, the Lebanese cannot even start a debate because they state that Hezbollah controls everything and abiding by its rule is an even worse solution. I urge them to debate and mobilize regardless of this status and discuss the possibilities of neutrality and federalism across religious groups. The past and present are so bleak that there is nothing wrong with trying to aim for a better future through real change.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, CEO of EurabiaMedia, and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.