How Gaza war could affect Jordan’s legislative elections

Jordan will hold parliamentary elections on Sept. 10 to elect a new lower house of parliament. The four-year term of the now-dissolved chamber, elected in 2020, expires in November. The upcoming polls will be held under a revamped elections law adopted at the recommendation of a political modernization committee formed by King Abdullah in 2021. The new law has designated 41 seats of the 130-seat lower house to political parties, a first since Jordan relaunched its parliamentary system in 1990.

Successive governments have been tweaking election laws since the mid-1990s with one goal in mind: weakening Islamists’ grassroots support and limiting their candidates' chances of gaining more seats in the house. But these experiments have resulted in mixed, often unexpected, results. The controversial single-vote system has undercut the chances of Islamist candidates. Still, it has also boosted the presence and influence of up-and-coming tribal contenders while alienating urban voters, especially from the middle class.

The cumulative result was the election of loyalist and service-oriented lawmakers, leaving the Islamists as the only credible opposition bloc under the dome. Passive legislatures were seen as having little or no oversight over governments, which was reflected in low approval ratings among Jordanians and even lower voter turnout — 29 percent in 2020.

The new election law seeks to strengthen political party representation over the coming decade so that future governments will be formed by a coalition of elected parties. Under the Jordanian Constitution, the King appoints the prime minister and approves the naming of Cabinet ministers. An appointed government must win a vote of confidence by lower house deputies.

The new election law seeks to strengthen political party representation over the coming decade

Osama Al-Sharif

Despite more than 40 political parties being registered in 2020, they claimed only 12 seats.

But the upcoming elections will be taking place under extraordinary circumstances. The war on Gaza has electrified the national mood, especially among the Jordanian youth. Since last October, Jordanians have been taking to the streets to protest Israeli atrocities in Gaza. Most protests have been organized by the Islamist base and leftist parties.

While the government has tolerated the anti-Israel, pro-Hamas nationwide protests, it clamped down on activists who became critical of the official Jordanian position in relation to ties with Israel. The country has been deeply polarized over Jordan’s interception of Iranian missiles and drones that violated the kingdom’s airspace after being launched at Israel in April.

There are about 5 million eligible voters, but past elections have seen a steady decline in voter turnout, especially in demographically and economically mixed urban areas. In 2020, the capital, Amman, a city of about 2.2 million, registered only 12 percent voter participation. It is not clear how the war in Gaza will affect voter mindset this time, especially among the youth.

The new electoral law was supposed to give newly formed centrist and loyalist parties, headed by former bureaucrats and retired leading army figures, a push to take most of the 41 seats allocated to political parties and district-allocated seats. Under the new law, restructuring electoral districts was meant to broaden popular participation, especially in the urban districts that have seen lower voter turnout for demographic reasons. But the war in Gaza and the stagnant economic situation have taken the wind out of the sails of what promised to be a new and ambitious electoral experiment. With more than 35 registered political parties, only a handful can cross the threshold of 7 percent of the votes required to sit in the lower house.

Of those parties, 28 will be contesting the elections through a single national list and multiple local district lists. The crowded party and district lists, with about 1,000 candidates, will fragment the votes. Critics say that no more than 100,000 Jordanians hold party membership, thus giving parties an unfair quota in the upcoming legislature. Moreover, they point out that potential voters are primarily indifferent to party slogans and programs that are banal and overtly nonpolitical.

Attention will naturally focus on the Islamic Action Front, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood

Osama Al-Sharif

Attention will naturally focus on the Islamic Action Front, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood. The courts have annulled the movement’s registration as a charity, but it continues to function nonetheless. In the last legislative elections of 2020, it won only eight seats. However, under the new electoral system, its prospects remain unknown, especially in light of its strong support of Hamas in Gaza.

While most parties and lists have opted to post thousands of posters bearing photos of candidates across the kingdom’s streets and squares as their primary messaging to the voters, the Islamic Action Front has gone a step further by launching populist and emotional appeals on social media platforms. Its underlying political messages have centered on the looming threat of Israel to Jordan and the support of armed resistance in Palestine, with emphasis on conservative Muslim family values. It is clear that the party is hoping to mobilize conservative Jordanians, including young voters who have become politicized over the war on Gaza.

The party’s national and local lists include East Bankers, Jordanians with Palestinian roots, Christians, Chechens and Circassians. In the local districts, the Islamic Action Front is fielding activists, especially those involved in the once-influential but now defunct Jordanian Teachers’ Syndicate.

In contrast, other parties seek to boost their chances at the polls by using tribal alliances in order to lure voters, especially in rural districts. The biggest challenge facing the political environment will be making the slow transition from tribal allegiances to party affiliation. It is unlikely that such a shift will begin with this electoral cycle.

The war in Gaza and economic conditions will factor in mobilizing voters in these upcoming elections. But while it is evident that the middle class of affluent West Amman is displaying signs of apathy, there is the possibility that some disgruntled secular voters may back the Islamists as a protest vote to point out their frustration with the dormant political status quo and the worsening economic conditions.

Interestingly, Jordan has a history of vibrant and representative elected political parties, especially in the 1940s and 1950s. The last parliamentary government in the kingdom was in 1956, a coalition of parties that included socialist, communist, Baathist and independent ministers. Political parties were banned in 1957 due to tumultuous geopolitical events.

• Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. X: @plato010