Two sworn enemies hold the key to ending the war in Gaza. Does either man want a deal?

Two sworn enemies hold the key to ending the war in Gaza. Does either man want a deal?
This combination of photos shows Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, left, in Ramat Gan, Israel, on June 8, 2024, and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza City, on April 13, 2022. (AP Photo)
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Updated 28 August 2024
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Two sworn enemies hold the key to ending the war in Gaza. Does either man want a deal?

Two sworn enemies hold the key to ending the war in Gaza. Does either man want a deal?
  • Any deal requires the signatures of two men: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar
  • They are sworn enemies, notoriously tough negotiators and know that the outcome of the talks will profoundly shape their legacies

The latest flurry of Gaza ceasefire talks — the back-and-forth over now-familiar sticking points and appeals from around the world — obscures a grim truth about the monthslong efforts to end the Israel-Hamas war and free scores of hostages.
Any deal requires the signatures of two men: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
They are sworn enemies, notoriously tough negotiators and know that the outcome of the talks will profoundly shape their legacies. In Sinwar’s case, it could mean life or death.
Both have strong incentives to end the war. But they may also think they stand to gain by holding out a bit longer, and that war is preferable to a deal that falls short of their demands.
Here’s a look at the two leaders and the constraints they face.
What does Netanyahu want?
Netanyahu has promised “total victory” over Hamas and the return of all the hostages held in Gaza — goals that many believe are incompatible.
He has come under tremendous pressure from the hostages’ families and much of the Israeli public to make a deal to bring them home, even if it leaves a battered Hamas intact. The United States, which has provided key military aid and diplomatic support to Israel, is also pushing for such a deal.
But Netanyahu’s governing coalition relies on far-right ministers who want to permanently reoccupy Gaza and have threatened to bring down the government if he concedes too much. That would force early elections that could drive him from power at a time when he is on trial for corruption.
It would also hasten a broader reckoning over the security failures surrounding the Oct. 7 attack in which Hamas-led militants killed some 1,200 people in southern Israel, mostly civilians, and abducted around 250 others — on Netanyahu’s watch. Netanyahu has rejected calls for a government investigation until the war is over.
The longer the war drags on, the more likely Israel is to achieve something that looks like victory — the killing of Sinwar, the rescue of more hostages — and the longer Netanyahu has to repair his political standing and reshape his legacy. But it also comes with risks as the number of soldiers killed in action rises nearly every day and Israel becomes increasingly isolated because of the suffering it has inflicted on Palestinians.
Netanyahu has clashed with his own defense minister over the endgame. Israeli media is filled with reports quoting unnamed senior security officials expressing frustration with Netanyahu, especially his demand for lasting control over two strategic corridors in Gaza. Some have gone so far as to accuse him of sabotaging the talks.
Both Israel and Hamas say they have accepted different versions of an evolving US-backed ceasefire proposal in principle, while suggesting changes and accusing the other of making unacceptable demands.
Yohanan Plesner, head of the Israel Democracy Institute, a local think tank, acknowledged the anger directed at Netanyahu in the local press and among segments of Israeli society but said Sinwar bore most of the blame for the impasse because he had shown little interest in compromising.
“If we saw Sinwar was serious about getting a deal, that would force Israel and Netanyahu to expose their cards,” Plesner said. The current situation is “almost like negotiating with oneself.”
What does Sinwar want?
Sinwar wants to end the war — but only on his terms.
Israel’s offensive has killed over 40,000 people, according to local health officials, displaced 90 percent of Gaza’s population and destroyed its main cities. Hamas has lost thousands of fighters and much of its militant infrastructure.
Sinwar’s only bargaining chips are the roughly 110 hostages still held in Gaza, around a third of whom are believed to be dead. And he needs much more than a temporary pause in the fighting if he hopes to salvage anything resembling victory from the Oct. 7 attack that he helped mastermind.
That begins with assurances that Israel won’t resume the war once some or all of the hostages are freed. He also needs Israel to withdraw from all of Gaza to ensure that the lasting impact of the Oct. 7 attack is not a permanent reoccupation of the territory. The release of high-profile Palestinian prisoners as part of a deal is a sacred cause for Sinwar, who was himself a long-serving prisoner freed in an exchange. And he needs assurances that Palestinians will be able to return to their homes and rebuild them.
“Sinwar is very much concerned with bringing negotiations to a conclusion, whether with regard to a ceasefire or an exchange of prisoners, because in both cases, Sinwar will have come out as the winner,” said Nabih Awada, a Lebanese political analyst and former militant who spent years in an Israeli prison with Sinwar.
There are risks for Sinwar in drawing the talks out: More hostages are likely to die or be rescued as the war grinds on. Death, destruction and hardship in Gaza will continue, and could stoke Palestinian discontent with Hamas, with political implications down the line.
Sinwar himself, who sits atop Israel’s most-wanted list, could be killed at any time. But given the centrality of martyrdom in Hamas’ history and ideology, he may feel that outcome is inevitable — and preferable to a deal that looks like defeat.
Can any external pressure help?
Egypt and Qatar have served as key mediators with Hamas, but their influence is limited.
Any pressure exerted on Hamas’ exiled leadership is unlikely to have much impact on Sinwar, who was appointed the overall head of Hamas after the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran. Sinwar is believed to have spent most of the past 10 months living in tunnels under Gaza, and it is unclear how much contact he has with the outside world.
The United States has provided crucial military support for Israel throughout the conflict and has shielded it from international calls for a ceasefire. Earlier this year, President Joe Biden paused a shipment of hundreds of 2,000-pound (900-kilogram) bombs to pressure Israel not to invade the southern city of Rafah — which it did anyway.
US election politics could also blunt American pressure. Biden has shown little inclination to pressure Netanyahu, and Vice President Kamala Harris has offered no concrete policy changes. Donald Trump has urged Israel to finish up its offensive but would likely be even more accommodating to Netanyahu, as he was during his presidency.
Any US arms embargo is even less likely when Israel faces a potential retaliatory strike from Iran over the killing of Haniyeh. Instead, the United States has poured military assets into the region, taking some of the pressure off Israel.
Sinwar might have hoped that the targeted killings of Haniyeh and a top Hezbollah commander last month would widen the war. But that appears less likely, with both Israel and Hezbollah applying the brakes following a heavy exchange of fire over the weekend.
The ceasefire talks have continued through it all, punctuated by fleeting moments of optimism.
The mediators have spent recent weeks trying to hammer out a bridging proposal with Netanyahu, but it’s still a work in progress. It has not yet been submitted to Sinwar.


Erdogan ally wants pro-Kurdish party, jailed militant to talk

Erdogan ally wants pro-Kurdish party, jailed militant to talk
Updated 14 sec ago
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Erdogan ally wants pro-Kurdish party, jailed militant to talk

Erdogan ally wants pro-Kurdish party, jailed militant to talk
  • The pro-Kurdish DEM Party, parliament’s third largest, responded by applying for its co-chairs to meet with Ocalan, founder of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)

ANKARA: A key ally of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan expanded on his proposal to end 40 years of conflict with Kurdish militants by proposing on Tuesday that parliament’s pro-Kurdish party holds direct talks with the militants’ jailed leader Abdullah Ocalan.
Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party, made the call a month after suggesting that Ocalan announce an end to the insurgency in exchange for the possibility of his release.
The pro-Kurdish DEM Party, parliament’s third largest, responded by applying for its co-chairs to meet with Ocalan, founder of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).
Erdogan described Bahceli’s initial proposal as a “historic window of opportunity” but has not spoken of any peace process.
Ocalan has been held in a prison on the island of Imrali, south of Istanbul, since his capture 25 years ago.
“We expect face-to-face contact between Imrali and the DEM group to be made without delay, and we resolutely reiterate our call,” Bahceli told his party’s lawmakers in a parliamentary meeting, using the name of the island to refer to Ocalan.
Bahceli regularly condemns pro-Kurdish politicians as tools of the PKK.
DEM’s predecessor party was involved in peace talks between Ankara and Ocalan a decade ago. Gulistan Kilic Kocyigit, DEM’s parliamentary group chairperson, said it applied to the Justice Ministry on Tuesday for its leaders to meet Ocalan.
“We are ready to make every contribution for a democratic solution to the Kurdish issue and the democratization of Turkiye,” she said.
Turkiye and its Western allies call the PKK a terrorist group. More than 40,000 people have been killed in the fighting, which in the past was focused in the mainly Kurdish southeast but is now centered on northern Iraq, where the PKK is based.
Growing regional instability and changing political dynamics are seen as factors behind the bid to end the conflict with the PKK. The chances of success are unclear as Ankara has given no clues on what it may entail.
The only concrete move so far has been Ankara’s permission for Ocalan’s nephew to visit him, the first family visit in 4-1/2 years.
Authorities are continuing to crack down on alleged PKK activities. Early on Tuesday, police detained 231 people of suspected PKK ties, the interior ministry said. DEM Party said those detained included its local officials and activists.
Earlier this month, the government replaced five pro-Kurdish mayors in southeastern cities for similar reasons, in a move that drew criticism from DEM and others.
 

 


Algeria holds writer Boualem Sansal on national security charges: lawyer

Algeria holds writer Boualem Sansal on national security charges: lawyer
Updated 2 min 24 sec ago
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Algeria holds writer Boualem Sansal on national security charges: lawyer

Algeria holds writer Boualem Sansal on national security charges: lawyer
“Boualem Sansal... was today placed in detention” on the basis of an article of the Algerian penal code, lawyer Francois Zimeray said
Sansal had been interrogated by “anti-terrorist” prosecutors and said he was being “deprived of his freedom on the grounds of his writing“

PARIS: Algerian authorities have remanded in custody on national security charges prominent French-Algerian novelist Boualem Sansal following his arrest earlier this month that sparked alarm throughout the literary world, his French lawyer said on Tuesday.
“Boualem Sansal... was today placed in detention” on the basis of an article of the Algerian penal code “which punishes all attacks on state security,” lawyer Francois Zimeray said in a statement to AFP.
He added that Sansal had been interrogated by “anti-terrorist” prosecutors and said he was being “deprived of his freedom on the grounds of his writing.”
Sansal, a major figure in francophone modern literature, is known for his strong stances against both authoritarianism and Islamism, as well as being a forthright campaigner on freedom of expression issues.
His detention by Algeria comes against a background of tensions between France and its former colony, which also appear to have spread to the literary world.
The 75-year-old writer, granted French nationality this year, was on November 16 arrested at Algiers airport after returning from France, according to several media reports.
The Gallimard publishing house, which has published his work for a quarter of a century, in a statement expressed “its very deep concern following the arrest of the writer by the Algerian security services,” calling for his “immediate release.”
A relative latecomer to writing, Sansal turned to novels in 1999 and has tackled subjects including the horrific 1990s civil war between authorities and Islamists.
His books are not banned in Algeria but he is a controversial figure, particularly since making a visit to Israel in 2014.
Sansal’s hatred of Islamism has not been confined to Algeria and he has also warned of a creeping Islamization in France, a stance that has made him a favored author of prominent figures on the right and far-right.
In 2015, Sansal won the Grand Prix du Roman of the French Academy, the guardians of the French language, for his book “2084: The End of the World,” a dystopian novel inspired by George Orwell’s “Nineteen-Eighty Four” and set in an Islamist totalitarian world in the aftermath of a nuclear holocaust.
The concerns about his reported arrest come as another prominent French-Algerian writer Kamel Daoud is under attack over his novel “Houris,” which won France’s top literary prize, the Goncourt.
A woman has claimed the book was based on her story of surviving 1990s Islamist massacres and used without her consent.
She alleged on Algerian television that Daoud used the story she confidentially recounted to a therapist — who is now his wife — during treatment. His publisher has denied the claims.
The controversies are taking place in a tense diplomatic context between France and Algeria, after President Emmanuel Macron renewed French support for Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara during a landmark visit to the kingdom last month.
Western Sahara, a former Spanish colony, is de facto controlled for the most part by Morocco.
But it is claimed by the Sahrawi separatists of the Polisario Front, who are demanding a self-determination referendum and are supported by Algiers.
Daoud organized a petition signed by fellow literary luminaries published in the Le Point weekly calling for Sansal’s “immediate” release.
“This tragic news reflects an alarming reality in Algeria, where freedom of expression is nothing more than a memory in the face of repression, imprisonment and the surveillance of the entire society,” said the letter also signed by the likes of British novelist Salman Rushdie and Turkish Nobel winner Orhan Pamuk.

Winter rain piles misery on Gaza’s displaced

Winter rain piles misery on Gaza’s displaced
Updated 4 min 34 sec ago
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Winter rain piles misery on Gaza’s displaced

Winter rain piles misery on Gaza’s displaced

GAZA CITY: At a crowded camp in Gaza for those displaced by the war between Israel and Hamas, Ayman Siam laid concrete blocks around his tent to keep his family dry as rain threatened more misery.

“I’m trying to protect my tent from the rainwater because we are expecting heavy rain. Three days ago when it rained, we were drenched,” Siam said, seeking to shield his children and grandchildren from more wet weather.

Siam is among thousands sheltering at Gaza City’s Yarmouk sports stadium in the north after being uprooted by the Israel-Hamas war.

He lives in one of many flimsy tents set up at the stadium, where the pitch has become a muddy field dotted with puddles left by rainfall that washed away belongings and shelters.

People in the stadium dug small trenches around their tents, covered them with plastic sheets, and did whatever they could to stop the water from entering their makeshift homes.

Others used spades to direct the water into drains, as grey skies threatened more rain.

The majority of Gaza’s 2.4 million people have been displaced, often multiple times.

With many displaced living in tent camps, the coming winter is raising serious concerns.

Mahmud Bassal, spokesman for Gaza’s civil defense agency, said that “tens of thousands of displaced people, especially in the central and south of Gaza Strip, are suffering from flooded tents due to the rains,” and called on the international community to provide tents and aid.

International aid organizations have sounded the alarm about the deteriorating situation as winter approaches.

“It’s going to be catastrophic,” warned Louise Wateridge, an emergency officer for the UN agency for Palestinian refugees currently in Gaza.

The rainy period in Gaza lasts between late October and April, with January being the wettest month, averaging 30 to 40 millimeters of rain. Winter temperatures can drop as low as 6 degrees Celsius. Recent rain has flooded hundreds of tents.

“The rain and seawater flooded all the tents. We are helpless. The water took everything from the tent, including the mattresses, blankets and a water jug. We were only able to get a mattress and blankets for the children,” said Auni Al-Sabea, a displaced person.


Lebanese Prime Minister demands ‘immediate’ implementation of ceasefire

Lebanese Prime Minister demands ‘immediate’ implementation of ceasefire
Updated 9 min 38 sec ago
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Lebanese Prime Minister demands ‘immediate’ implementation of ceasefire

Lebanese Prime Minister demands ‘immediate’ implementation of ceasefire
  • Mikati said the intense wave of Israeli air strikes on Beirut on Tuesday “reaffirms that the Israeli enemy has no regard for any law or consideration"

BEIRUT: Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati demanded in a statement on Tuesday that the international community “act swiftly” to halt Israeli aggression “and implement an immediate ceasefire.”
His comments came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an address that his security cabinet would agree “this evening” on a truce deal in its war against Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
Mikati said the intense wave of Israeli air strikes on Beirut on Tuesday “reaffirms that the Israeli enemy has no regard for any law or consideration.”
“The international community is called upon to act swiftly to stop this aggression and implement an immediate ceasefire,” he said in his statement, which was issued before a strike hit the central Hamra commercial district.


Israeli ‘aggression’ targets Syria’s Homs countryside, state news agency says

Israeli ‘aggression’ targets Syria’s Homs countryside, state news agency says
Updated 26 November 2024
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Israeli ‘aggression’ targets Syria’s Homs countryside, state news agency says

Israeli ‘aggression’ targets Syria’s Homs countryside, state news agency says
  • Blasts had been heard in the vicinity of Homs city and that the cause was under investigation

HOMS: Initial reports indicate that an Israeli “aggression” targeted two villages in northern and western areas of Syria’s Homs province, the Syrian state news agency said on Tuesday.
Earlier, Syrian state television said blasts had been heard in the vicinity of Homs city and that the cause was under investigation.
Israel has been carrying out strikes against Iran-linked targets in Syria for years but has ramped up such raids since the Oct. 7, 2023, assault on southern Israel by Hamas-led militants.