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An important agreement was last week signed by Iraq and Turkiye with the objective of diffusing tensions and strengthening cooperation in a number of areas, including military, security, economic and water resource management.
As part of the agreement, a joint military training facility will be established in Bashiqa, cooperative operations against the PKK will be intensified and a $17 billion infrastructure and trade project called the Development Road will be initiated. A 10-year agreement on water resource management was also inked to guarantee the equitable distribution of water.
A significant step in improving the two nations’ bilateral ties has been taken with this agreement. It also raises a question about its impact on the Levant region and specifically the Syrian file for Turkiye and its many other stakeholders.
Just like Ankara’s relations with Syria, there have been long-standing hostilities between Turkiye and Iraq, mostly due to the presence of the Kurdish PKK in northern Iraq. These tensions are the main background to this deal.
Many conflicts have resulted from the PKK’s activities. For example, in January 2024 and December 2023, Turkish airstrikes were directed at PKK sites in Iraq after Turkish soldiers were killed in combat with the group’s fighters. Frictions have also been exacerbated by disagreements over the Tigris and Euphrates rivers’ water resources, as well as economic problems related to trade and energy cooperation. The new accord brings the beginning of a path toward ending these long-standing issues.
If we shift to Syria, we notice Turkiye’s military involvement in the north of the country is still substantial, concentrated on regions under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces. This presence started with the 2011 popular movements against Bashar Assad. We also need to remember that the Syrian Democratic Forces is still backed by the US, increasing the complexity of the situation. Despite this, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has frequently threatened more military actions in the region, with a focus on Tel Rifaat and Manbij. Strategically significant, these areas have served as a center of Turkish operations against the influence of Kurdish forces, which Ankara associates with the PKK.
Northern Syria has been consistently witnessing military activity and reports of continuous airstrikes and military operations keep the situation tense. It is worth mentioning that Turkiye has lately been witnessing anti-Syrian riots, which are an indication of rising anti-Syrian sentiment and domestic unrest. Additionally, fighting has broken out in northern Syria in regions under the control of Syrian opposition groups backed by Turkiye.
All this is reflected in Turkish-Syrian relations, which have been characterized lately by a combination of hostility and cautious moves in the direction of reconciliation. After previously supporting the Syrian opposition, Erdogan has signaled a desire for peace with Assad. This action goes with the rehabilitation of the Syrian president, with Arab efforts moving in the same direction. Meetings at the security level, conversations regarding possible Syrian refugee repatriations and collaboration on counterterrorism have all been part of diplomatic efforts.
But there are still many major challenges. The Syrian government requests that the Turkish military leave Syrian territory and that it stops providing assistance to opposition organizations. Furthermore, the intricate regional dynamics, which include Syria’s connections with Russia and Iran, complicate Turkiye’s positive attempts. Despite these challenges, the recent diplomatic moves suggest a cautious but notable shift in the relationship between the two countries.
The Iraqi-Turkish agreement can hence serve as a roadmap for easing tensions and finding a peaceful resolution in northern Syria. Yet, it can also be interpreted as Turkiye easing tensions to avoid a second front in case relations with Syria further sour. As mentioned, the new approach by Erdogan indicates a genuine wish to ease tensions. The fact that Iraq and Syria are in alignment when it comes to Russia and Iran is a strong indicator of potential greater stability. Moreover, one can clearly foresee a wish for Baghdad to realign or recalibrate its relationship with Tehran, seeking a greater balance with the rest of the Middle East. The same can also apply to Assad, who, despite what analysts think, would welcome a reduction in dependency on Tehran. Everyone wants to be the boss at home.
In the meantime, Daesh still maintains a presence in northern Syria, particularly in pockets of the Idlib province, as well as the desert regions of Homs, Deraa, Suwayda and Deir Ezzor. Despite losing most of its territory by 2019, Daesh has continued to launch attacks. This threat poses ongoing security challenges in the region. There could be broader efforts from Turkiye to support its eradication and this would be in line with Ankara’s broader strategy to secure its borders and eliminate terrorist threats. It would nevertheless require that these efforts also included targeting the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Just like Ankara’s relations with Syria, there have been long-standing hostilities between Turkiye and Iraq.
Khaled Abou Zahr
There is no doubt that things will take time and, first of all, the Iraqi accord needs to stick. At a time when fatigue and the fear of the unknown are shared among friends and foes — and exacerbated since the start of the war in Gaza — this is nevertheless an important opportunity for the stabilization of relations from the Levant including Lebanon to the Caucasus. But it will involve a complicated balancing act for all countries involved. In addition to Syria, Turkiye has indicated a wish to ease tensions with both Iran and Russia, as witnessed by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Turkiye’s ally Azerbaijan this week. While many would like to see a Turkiye-Syria accord and hope it would be a sign of rebalancing away from Tehran’s influence in Damascus, the reality may involve new forms of engagement between all powers, with a mix of collaboration and controlled confrontation.
- Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of the investment platform SpaceQuest Ventures, CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.