Four big challenges from Turkiye’s aging population
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As the global population ages, Turkiye, once proud of its people’s youth, is also facing a significant aging population issue that is gradually undermining its economy.
Population aging is a critical issue for developed countries around the world, many of which are experiencing severe declines in their populations. Developed countries such as China, Japan, Germany and other European nations are addressing this challenge through socio-economic programs, as an aging population profoundly affects both social life and the economy.
Developing countries like Turkiye are also beginning to face this issue. While Turkiye is still categorized as having a young population, its demographic advantage is diminishing day by day, as the country rapidly heads toward the aging crisis experienced by all developed countries. Turkiye was previously reliant on its youthful demographic during its bid for EU membership, with this segment of the population being a key factor in its stability. However, this advantage has started to fade.
According to population projections, the proportion of young people in Turkiye’s population could fall below 10 percent between 2050 and 2100. Currently, with a young population rate of 15.1 percent, Turkiye is slightly below the global average of 15.5 percent. According to 2023 statistics, the fertility rate (number of children per woman) was 1.51, down from 1.63 the previous year. To maintain a stable population, this ratio must be above 2.1. Since 2001, when the fertility rate was 2.38, there has been a sharp decline. The current rate of 1.51 is even lower than the US rate of 1.61. So, why and how did Turkiye, which had a youth advantage, reach this point?
While Turkiye is still categorized as having a young population, its demographic advantage is diminishing day by day
Sinem Cengiz
Several factors contribute to this trend. First, economic conditions play a major role in declining fertility rate as young people avoid having children due to financial uncertainty and the high cost of living, including education and child-rearing. Almost one-third of Turkiye’s population is at risk of poverty or social exclusion, according to a recent report published by the Turkish Statistical Institute.
Second, brain drain, which also is related to economic issues, exacerbates the situation. Turkiye, unfortunately, has failed to fully capitalize on its youthful demographic. Economic instability, limited job opportunities and political uncertainties have driven many young, qualified individuals to seek better opportunities abroad, which negatively affects the local labor market, contributing to a decrease in the youth population.
Third, changing societal attitudes toward family life are also a factor. Modern society’s shift toward individualism, higher costs and lifestyle changes have led to smaller family sizes. There are also problems such as living costs, but the main issue concerns personal preferences of individuals delaying having children for career or personal reasons, leading to a shrinking youth population.
Fourth, some families are reluctant to have children in a society experiencing high levels of immigration, which is believed to create an insecure environment for raising children. The sensitivity of Turkish society toward immigration issues has become increasingly apparent in recent years.
Since the 2000s, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly urged Turkish families to have at least three children, highlighting that a nation’s strength lies in its families and their size. While many leaders view this as a serious issue, such calls must be supported by effective programs to have a real impact, or else will fall on deaf ears. Promoting family-friendly policies, such as extended parental leave, childcare support and housing benefits, is crucial. In 2015, the Turkish government initiated the Program on Protection of Family and Dynamic Population Structure to provide further incentives for working women to have children. The program was launched as part of labor law reforms. This year, the Ministry of Family and Social Services, in collaboration with the Ministry of Treasury and Finance, has begun work on proposals to extend maternity leave, provide financial aid for childcare and offer housing support, among other benefits.
Modern society’s shift toward individualism, higher costs and lifestyle changes have led to smaller family sizes
Sinem Cengiz
Supporting youth employment is also essential to encourage young people to stay in Turkiye and start families. Brain drain will continue to affect fertility rates and human capital formation in Turkiye. Furthermore, the approach to working women should be reassessed. There is a stigma in Turkiye that childless women are “deficient” or “incomplete.” Instead, policies that help women that want to be mothers balance work and family life could yield positive results.
On existing trends, Turkiye may face challenges similar to those experienced by Europe in the coming decades. According to the main scenario, Turkiye’s young population is expected to number about 9.1 million by 2050. The proportion of young people among the total population is anticipated to decrease to 9.66 percent during this period.
There are several challenges for Turkiye in the future that are likely to impact various aspects of society and the economy. The first is the decline in economic growth and productivity due to the shrinking working-age population. The second is demographic imbalance; the decreasing fertility rate could potentially lead to Turks becoming a minority in their own country within the next generation. The demographic imbalance is also related to the balance between the old and young population. Third, a smaller population will impact military power, as military service relies on a young population. Last, the decline in population will contribute to an increase in loneliness and produce adverse psychological effects within society. The aging population presents challenges and potential consequences. Addressing this issue should be a top priority, with effective strategies.
• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz
