Ukraine’s shock strategy sets off alarm bells in Russia
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On Aug. 6, Ukraine launched an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. Within two days, almost 1,000 Ukrainian troops had entered the territory. The Russian government immediately declared a state of emergency, and Russian reserves were mobilized. Russia has designated its defense as a counterterrorism operation.
A Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesperson hinted at the motive behind the Ukrainian offensive, saying: “The sooner Russia agrees (to peace), the sooner Ukrainian raids on Russian territory will stop.” President Vladimir Putin responded by saying the invasion is “an attempt by Kyiv to stop Moscow’s offensive in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region and gain leverage in possible future peace talks.” However, there is a need to analyze the strategic implications of Ukraine’s incursion into Russian soil.
Ukraine’s military has attempted to regain its lost territories by launching drone strikes inside the Russian Federation, along with a few attacks staged by anti-Putin Russian exile militias inside their homeland.
The Kursk offensive marks a new strategy by Kyiv. It is a surprise military operation. So far, Ukraine has managed to occupy several villages and towns, forcing over 100,000 Russian residents to flee. This could also be described as a shock strategy to force the Russians to reassess their calculations in the war. Nevertheless, this operation has not significantly altered the battlefield realities.
Ukraine planned the attack in secret, with troop movements initially announced as training exercises. Even the senior officers who received the orders to advance into Russia were informed of the military plan just days before it began.
This is the first foreign incursion into Russia since the Second World War. “I’m happy to be riding a tank into Russia; it’s better than them driving tanks into our country,” a Ukrainian soldier told The New York Times.
The Russian government has accused the West of colluding with the Ukrainians to strike Russia. Moscow insists that its stance on future negotiations with Kyiv will not change as a result of the incursion.
Moscow insists its stance on negotiations will not change
Maria Maalouf
It is unclear how much support the invasion has generated among the Ukrainian people. The size of the land occupied by Ukraine is small compared with the areas taken by Russia from Ukraine since Feb. 24, 2022. And if Ukraine aims to embarrass Russia, military analysts must assess whether battlefield embarrassment of an enemy can translate into ultimate victory. Another strategic question is whether the incursion can break the current political and military stalemate over the war.
Ukraine will be hoping to achieve a military success similar to its counteroffensive in the summer of 2022, which helped to reclaim the northeastern region of Kharkiv. However, Kyiv has not disclosed the number of casualties resulting from the Kursk incursion.
Russia might mobilize more troops and civilians to expel the Ukrainians from Kursk. This situation could evoke memories of Russia’s fight against Nazi Germany in the Second World War. Putin could proclaim it as another “Great Patriotic War,” referencing the Soviet resistance.
Additionally, Ukraine could use its control of Kursk as a bargaining chip for the territories Russia has occupied in Ukraine over the past two-and-a-half years. Among the areas taken by Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine are Kherson Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Donetsk People’s Republic, Luhansk Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast, and the southernmost part of Mykolaiv Raion (Kinburn Peninsula). This does not include the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in February 2014. Russia has captured more territory from Kyiv than Ukraine has seized from Moscow. Thus, Ukraine may not be able to force the Kremlin into making significant concessions to return Kursk to the Russian Federation.
If the fighting continues until the US presidential election, or if Ukraine is forced to retreat from Kursk, the Democrats may appear weak before the electorate for supporting a failing war. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is also a problem for Donald Trump because many Republicans want Ukraine to defeat Russia, and oppose his call for Kyiv to accept some territorial losses to achieve a ceasefire. So far, Vice President Kamala Harris has remained silent on Ukraine’s invasion.
• Maria Maalouf is a Lebanese journalist, broadcaster, publisher, and writer. X: @bilarakib
