Oil Updates — prices up on hopes of US rate cuts boosting fuel demand

An oil well control specialist and oil and gas lawyer survey an excavated pumpjack with a leaking surface casing in Ward County, Texas, US, Aug. 6, 2024. Reuters

• Brent crude futures rose 19 cents, or 0.24%, to $79.95 a barrel
• US crude inventories rose unexpectedly on easing worries about a wider Middle East conflict

LONDON: Oil prices rose on Thursday, supported by optimism that potential US interest rate cuts will boost economic activity and fuel consumption though concerns over slower global demand curbed gains, according to Reuters.
Brent crude futures rose 19 cents, or 0.24 percent, to $79.95 a barrel by 08:25 a.m. Saudi time, recovering some of the previous day’s losses. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased by 23 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $77.21 per barrel.
Both benchmarks fell more than 1 percent on Wednesday after US crude inventories rose unexpectedly on easing worries about a wider Middle East conflict.
US consumer prices rose moderately in July and the annual increase in inflation slowed to below 3 percent for the first time in nearly 3-1/2 years, reinforcing expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month.
“We saw a correction in Asia trade as the oil market was oversold on Wednesday,” said Yuki Takashima, economist at Nomura Securities, adding that investors are betting the Fed could start cutting rates next month.
Investor worries over Iran’s potential response to the killing of the leader of the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas last month supported prices. Three senior Iranian officials have said that only a ceasefire deal in Gaza would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination.
“Geopolitical risk continues to hang over the oil market. It is still unclear how and if Iran will retaliate against Israel ... This uncertainty has led to increased options trading activity with market participants wanting to protect themselves from significant upside,” ING analysts said in a client note.
However, oil inventory gains raised concerns of weaker demand, analysts at ANZ said in a client note. US crude oil stockpiles rose by 1.4 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 9, compared with estimates for a 2.2 million barrel draw, building for the first time since late June.
China’s factory output growth slowed in July while refinery output fell for a fourth month, underscoring the country’s spotty economic recovery, also limiting the market’s upside.
The market’s focus will be on July’s US retail sales growth after the mixed data from China, said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong in an email, adding that a disappointing figure may trigger a short-term bearish price move.
Overall, analysts have mixed views on the market’s forward price trajectory.
Nomura’s Takashima sees oil prices remaining under pressure as concerns persist that global demand, especially in China, will be sluggish, and predicts WTI will head toward the $72 mark hit in August.
However, independent market analyst Tina Teng said prices may go higher in the third quarter, despite China’s slowdown, due to conflict in the Middle East, rate cuts by central banks and a softening US dollar. She sees Brent prices rising to $90 per barrel.