ANKARA: Turkiye last week announced its plans to inaugurate the Steel Dome project, a multi-layered and comprehensive air defense shield system to be built with domestic resources.
Haluk Gorgun, the secretary of Turkish Defence Industries, said the project will help all sensors and weapons systems work together in an integrated network with real-time operational capabilities, while the system will be supported by artificial intelligence.
An important milestone in the country’s indigenous defense industry, the system will incorporate various technologies developed by domestic companies for different altitudes and ranges.
The project will be spearhead by defense electronics manufacturer Aselsan, and it will also include key domestic players which produce rockets, guided missiles, small arms, artillery and ammunition.
It will integrate and simultaneously operate all warning systems, including radar, electro-optical technologies, drones, satellites, aircraft, as well as low and high-altitude defence missiles and fighter jets. It will therefore help all individual air defense systems to work together and improve response times.
Serhat Guvenc, professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul, said it is unclear yet if the system would be designed to complement NATO’s current and projected air and missile defense system.
“It is safe to assume that they can be smoothly integrated into the alliance’s air defense network if Ankara decides so,” he told Arab News.
“The project itself aims to integrate Turkiye’s air defense capabilities, facilitate interoperability and create a layered air defence system that collects and shares information from all sensors. It aims to make more efficient use of existing systems," Guvenc added.
Turkiye has also pledged to increase its defense spending to more than 2 percent of its national income as part of NATO membership criteria.
As for the possibility of integrating the S-400 Russian missile defense system into this project, Guvenc believes this is unlikely because Turkiye’s weapons systems are produced according to NATO standards and are designed to be interoperable with NATO. “Integrating such a system with the S-400s is not feasible,” he said.
The project does not involve the production of new weapons, but will use sensors, processors and AI for integration purposes. “This approach does not require extensive hardware. The missile components of the system are already produced in Turkiye, and the entire integration process is expected to take about a year,” Guvenc said.
Since this initiative is focused on strengthening national air defense and is a response to the threats posed by neighbouring countries, particularly Russia and Iran, Guvenc believes that any step taken by Turkiye to improve its security should be seen as an effort to counter potential threats from regional actors as it aims to provide an impenetrable defense over Turkish airspace.
The project, when completed, will not only strengthen the NATO member’s air defense system, but also the alliance’s southeastern flank by enabling precise tracking, accurate identification and neutralization of regional targets, including stealth aircraft and cruise missiles, under a centralized command and control.
“It will contribute more effectively to the recognized air picture and provide additional information against both regional and global threats. By developing a network that enables better response times, the project will strengthen NATO’s overall system,” Guvenc said.
On the cost-benefit side, experts say the indigenous and AI-supported project appears to be cost-effective for now as it will make use of components that are already in military inventory.
However, the costs may escalate if the system needs advanced sensors and more sophisticated command and control systems, while any upgrade to a component would require adjustments to others — another factor that could increase costs.
“Developing a missile defense system from scratch would be much more expensive. The cost of integrating it into existing systems is relatively low compared to developing a new system capable of intercepting and destroying ballistic missiles before they enter the atmosphere,” Guvenc said.
“The core of the project is an advanced battle management system designed to command and control all air defense resources through a unified network in the event of a threat. By incorporating artificial intelligence into the system, the need for large numbers of personnel will be reduced, although a skilled workforce will still be essential,” he added.
Boosting the cybersecurity of the system is also a must because the integration of various components under a single system will also increase the vulnerability against potential cyber-attacks.
The timing of the announcement of this new project has also stirred debate. According to Guvenc, the importance of multi-layered air defense systems has been highlighted by recent battlefield experiences in Ukraine and Gaza.
Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based think-tank EDAM and a visiting fellow at Carnegie Europe, agrees.
“What we have seen recently is that air superiority has taken on a critical importance in regional conflicts. The latest, of course, is the attack that Iran has orchestrated against Israel, using missiles and armed drones. So, this latest episode epitomises the changing nature of regional warfare,” he told Arab News.
“This is essentially the context that has led the Turkish authorities to strengthen the country’s air and missile defense capabilities. This is an area in which Turkiye has long been deficient,” he added.
According to Ulgen, this is why it has tried to acquire first Western systems and most recently the Russian S-400 system, which then triggered US sanctions.
“More recently, Turkiye has accelerated the pace at which it is developing national capabilities for air missile defense. Although they are not combat-proven, Turkiye now has low and medium-range air defence systems and is able to produce them with national capabilities. What it lacks now is the kind of integrated architecture that Israel has with Iron Dome, which is essential to increase the level of protection provided by these systems,” he said.
Ulgen also noted that at the moment, Turkiye has some of these capabilities, but it does not have high-altitude systems.
“Turkiye relies on NATO’s missile defense umbrella to protect itself against this type of attack. Turkiye will now be able to address one of these major defence gaps, also known as deterrence by denial. It will be able to demonstrate to its rivals that it can eliminate the missile threat, which would give Turkiye a significant advantage,” he said.
However, such a new integrated system will require a long-term commitment, significant spending to achieve this goal, and additional capabilities that would have to be acquired, Ulgen said, adding that it will also guide future defence industry efforts and investments towards this goal.
