What all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel could mean for crisis-wracked Lebanon

Analysis What all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel could mean for crisis-wracked Lebanon
Israel has struck southern Lebanon in retaliation for cross-border attacks by Hezbollah. (AFP)
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Updated 13 August 2024
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What all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel could mean for crisis-wracked Lebanon

What all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel could mean for crisis-wracked Lebanon
  • Hurried departure of visitors and diplomats causes war jitters as Lebanese await Hezbollah retaliation for Israeli killing of commander
  • All-out war could wipe 25 percent of Lebanon’s already weak GDP and result in shortages of basic commodities, warns economist

BEIRUT: As Lebanon faces the increasing possibility of an all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel, it also confronts a perfect storm of crises, ranging from the economic to the diplomatic.

The Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite group has traded near-daily fire with the Israeli military in support of its ally Hamas since the Oct. 7 attack last year led by the Palestinian militant group on Israel triggered a military assault on the Gaza Strip.

In recent days, calls by Arab and Western governments and embassies for their nationals to leave Lebanon immediately have greatly heightened concerns. The German Foreign Ministry has expressed its alarm at the “false sense of security” among citizens, and warned of severe consequences if the confrontation escalates into a full-scale war.

The US Embassy in Beirut said on Friday that it “encourages those who wish to depart Lebanon to book any ticket available to them” while urging US citizens who choose not to depart Lebanon “to prepare contingency plans for emergencies and be prepared to shelter in place for an extended period.”




Smoke billows from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted the outskirts of the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Hamam on August 9, 2024. (AFP)

The risk of the conflict expanding in the Middle East has also led to more airlines, including Air Algerie and Air India, suspending flights to Lebanon. Britain has advised its airlines “not to enter Lebanese airspace from Aug. 8 until Nov. 4,” citing “a potential risk to aviation from military activity.”

Fear of escalation in the wake of two killings at the end of last month attributed to Israel — Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah’s senior military commander, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut — has driven thousands of Lebanese expatriates to flee the country.

Many had arrived just weeks earlier to spend the summer with family, but now, urged by foreign embassies, they have hastily packed their bags, leaving behind a country on the brink.




Fire sweep over a car targeted by an Israeli strike in the southern city of Sidon on August 9, 2024. (AFP)

“This is Lebanon. Nothing has changed. We are used to it,” said one of the departing expatriates, reflecting the resigned attitude of someone who knew the risks of both staying back in the country and catching a flight out of Beirut.

The exodus of expatriates has struck a devastating blow to Lebanon’s economy. As the primary lifeline that sustains the nation, their departure spells disaster for small and medium enterprises, especially in the tourism sector. Jean Bayruti, secretary-general of the Federation of Tourism Unions in Lebanon, said: “If we sacrifice the tourism sector this year, we will have sacrificed Lebanon.”

Lebanon’s economy, already fragile and weakened by years of political instability, is now at greater risk. The World Bank had cautiously predicted a slight economic growth of 0.2 percent for 2023, supported by remittances and tourism. However, the situation has drastically changed.

The national currency has lost 95 percent of its value since the economy’s collapse in 2019, with more than 80 percent of the population now living below the poverty line.




In recent days, calls by Arab and Western governments and embassies for their nationals to leave Lebanon immediately have greatly heightened concerns. (AFP)

Jassem Ajaka, a Lebanese economist, warned that the low-intensity war in southern Lebanon is eroding the economy. “If the strikes expand, the situation will be more costly, as insurance rates and general prices will rise, and black-market traders will benefit,” he said, referring to operators in the underground economy.

He believes that losses in the Lebanese tourism industry could exceed $2 billion, compounded by disruptions in imports and banking transactions. In the event of an all-out war involving Israeli attacks on Lebanon’s creaky infrastructure, the damage could be catastrophic, Ajaka said.

“Gross domestic product losses could reach 24-25 percent, businesses and hospitals would be affected, and there could be shortages of basic commodities such as wheat and fuel.”

The cross-border violence since last October has killed at least 565 people in Lebanon, mostly combatants, but also at least 116 civilians, according to an AFP tally.

INNUMBERS

  • 95% Loss in Lebanese currency value since 2019 economic collapse.
  • 80%+ Population of Lebanon now living below the poverty line.
  • 565 People, including fighters, killed in Lebanon since October 2023.

On the Israeli side, including in the annexed Golan Heights, 22 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed, according to army figures. Tens of thousands of residents have been displaced by fighting from both sides of the Blue Line — the demarcation line dividing Lebanon from Israel and the Golan Heights.

Lebanon is deeply divided in its response to the escalating tensions. While some believe that the country can avoid the worst of the conflict, others are already experiencing its harsh realities.

Entire towns in southern Lebanon have been wiped out by retaliatory Israeli military strikes, resulting in the displacement of tens of thousands of families.




A televised speech by Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah is transmitted on large screens as fighters and mourners attend the funeral ceremony of slain top commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut’s southern suburbs on August 1, 2024. (AFP)

On Friday, separate Israeli attacks killed two Hezbollah fighters in Naqoura and two Hamas members in Sidon, including the Palestinian group’s security official in the Ain Al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp. It was the first time that the town, 44 km from Beirut, had been targeted.

Israeli drones were seen flying over Lebanese villages along the border, using loudspeakers to broadcast messages in Arabic against Hezbollah and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. In a televised address at Shukr’s funeral on Aug. 1, Nasrallah said that Hezbollah was “paying the price for its support for Gaza and the Palestinian people,” but also declared an “open battle on all fronts.”

The general consensus in Beirut is that Lebanese government officials have limited options for avoiding a catastrophe. “The most Lebanese officials can do is resort to lobbying diplomacy to prevent Israel from destroying Lebanon,” one analyst, speaking anonymously, told Arab News. “They are unable to influence the course of developments when it comes to Hezbollah and Israel.”




A man walks on an overpass beneath a giant billboard that reads “Enough, we are tired, Lebanon doesn’t want war” on a street in Beirut on August 7, 2024. (AFP)

The situation is vastly different from the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, with fewer safe routes for those seeking to flee. Many Lebanese people now consider areas with Christian, Druze, or Sunni majorities as relatively safe, unlike the Shiite-majority regions that are closely associated with Hezbollah.

For many, the threat of war is an all-too-familiar reality. Mohammed Sabra, who lives in Beirut’s southern suburbs, did not try to hide his frustration.

“We are controlled, not chosen. Israel doesn’t need a pretext to attack Lebanon. All I can do is hope for things to stay under control, because I can’t run anywhere. I have five children and displacement will extract a high cost.”

Voicing his concerns, Bilal Ghandour, a jewelry shop owner in Beirut, said: “We are dealing with an enemy that has no red lines, and we saw what happened in the Gaza Strip. The impact of any future war will be severe in light of the economic crisis we are suffering from.”




The aftermath of an Israeli raid in the southern Lebanese village of Shama (Chamaa), on August 2, 2024. (AFP)

In recent weeks, Israeli jets have flown low over Beirut, often visible to the naked eye, and have frequently broken the sound barrier, causing the loudest sonic booms heard in years.

The sense of fear in the Lebanese capital is palpable, especially among residents of areas viewed as Hezbollah strongholds, notably Dahiyeh, a predominantly Shiite suburb in the south of Beirut.

Haret Hreik, in Dahiyeh, was where Shukr was killed in an airstrike by the Israeli military on July 30, in apparent retaliation for the deaths of 12 children in the predominantly Druze town of Majdal Shams, in the Golan Heights, in a missile strike blamed on Hezbollah.

During the 2006 war, Dahiyeh served as the headquarters of Hezbollah and was heavily targeted and damaged by the Israeli military. Dahiyeh doctrine, the Israeli military strategy involving the destruction of civilian infrastructure in order to pressure hostile regimes, is named after the neighborhood.

“Manal,” a university professor who lives in Dahiyeh, shared her apprehensions with Arab News on condition of anonymity. “There is a sense of fear for the family, and I have no plans A or B for displacement. All the bags of displacement are ready in front of the doors of the homes of Dahiyeh residents, even those who believe in the resistance,” she said.




A Lebanese couple run through the streets in front of a bombed bridge following an Israeli air strikes on the Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh on 14 July 2006. (AFP)

Lebanon now faces a future filled with uncertainty. The economic crisis, combined with the potential for war, has left many feeling helpless. “Everyone is worried, everything is possible,” said Fatima Muhaimish, a resident of Beirut’s southern suburbs. “There is no psychological or physical ability to endure war and the horror it leaves behind.”

As the Lebanese people brace for what may come, they are left with more questions than answers. “Is there really a safe place in Lebanon if Israel launches a war on the country?” they ask. “What happens after this war, and will there be other wars?”

Social political analyst Maher Abi Nader attributes the widespread sense of denial to the psychological trauma endured by the Lebanese people in recent decades, most recently after the August 2020 Beirut port explosion.




Rescuers stand near a building with destroyed top floors following an Israeli military strike on Beirut’s southern suburb on July 30, 2024. (AFP)

“The West is ignorant of our reading of the war. The Lebanese citizen knows how to deal with acute crises. He prefers to live one day at a time to avoid fatal stress,” Abi Nader told Arab News.

In his speech at Shukr’s funeral, Nasrallah said that unnamed countries had asked Hezbollah to retaliate in an “acceptable” way — or not at all. But he said it would be “impossible” for his fighters not to respond. “There is no discussion on this point,” he said. “The only things lying between us and you are the days, the nights and the battlefield.”

With no clear path forward, Lebanon is once again on edge, waiting for what seems like a delayed but inevitable full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel.

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Little hope in Gaza that arrest warrants will cool Israeli onslaught

A Palestinian little girl queues for food in Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip, Monday, Nov. 18, 2024. (AP)
A Palestinian little girl queues for food in Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip, Monday, Nov. 18, 2024. (AP)
Updated 9 sec ago
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Little hope in Gaza that arrest warrants will cool Israeli onslaught

A Palestinian little girl queues for food in Deir al-Balah, Gaza Strip, Monday, Nov. 18, 2024. (AP)
  • An Israeli strike hit the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beit Lahiya, one of three medical facilities barely operational in the area, injuring six medical staff, some critically, the Gaza health ministry said in a statement

GAZA: Gazans saw little hope on Friday that International Criminal Court arrest warrants for Israeli leaders would slow down the onslaught on the Palestinian territory, where medics said at least 21 people were killed in fresh Israeli military strikes.
In Gaza City in the north, an Israeli strike on a house in Shejaia killed eight people, medics said.
Three others were killed in a strike near a bakery, and a fisherman was killed as he set out to sea. In the central and southern areas, nine people were killed in three separate Israeli air strikes.

FASTFACT

Residents in the three besieged towns on Gaza’s northern edge — Jabalia, Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanoun — said Israeli forces had blown up dozens of houses.

Meanwhile, Israeli forces deepened their incursion and bombardment of the northern edge of the enclave, their main offensive since early last month.
The military claims it aims to prevent Hamas fighters from waging attacks and regrouping there; residents say they fear the aim is to permanently depopulate a strip of territory as a buffer zone, which Israel denies.
Residents in the three besieged towns on the northern edge — Jabalia, Beit Lahiya, and Beit Hanoun — said Israeli forces had blown up dozens of houses.
An Israeli strike hit the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beit Lahiya, one of three medical facilities barely operational in the area, injuring six medical staff, some critically, the Gaza health ministry said in a statement.
“The strike also destroyed the hospital’s main generator and punctured the water tanks, leaving the hospital without oxygen or water, which threatens the lives of patients and staff inside the hospital,” it added.
It said 85 wounded people, including children and women, were inside, eight in the ICU.
Gazans saw the ICC’s decision to seek the arrest of Israeli leaders for suspected war crimes as international recognition of the enclave’s plight. But those queuing for bread at a bakery in the southern city of Khan Younis were doubtful it would have any impact.
“The decision will not be implemented because America protects Israel, and it can veto anything. Israel will not be held accountable,” said Saber Abu Ghali as he waited for his turn in the crowd.
Saeed Abu Youssef, 75, said that even if justice arrived, it would be decades late: “We have been hearing decisions for more than 76 years that have not been implemented and haven’t done anything for us.” Israel launched its assault on Gaza after militants stormed across the border fence, killed 1,200 people, and seized more than 250 hostages on Oct. 7, 2023.
Since then, nearly 44,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, much of which has been laid to waste.
The court’s prosecutors said there were reasonable grounds to believe Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant were criminally responsible for acts including murder, persecution, and starvation as a weapon of war, as part of a “widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population of Gaza.”
Israeli politicians from across the political spectrum have denounced the ICC arrest warrants as biased and based on false evidence, and Israel says the court has no jurisdiction over the war.
Hamas hailed the arrest warrants as a first step toward justice.
Efforts by Arab mediators backed by the US to conclude a ceasefire deal have stalled.
Hamas wants a deal that ends the war, while Netanyahu has vowed the war can end only once Hamas is eradicated.


Turkiye dismisses two opposition mayors over ‘terrorism’

Turkiye dismisses two opposition mayors over ‘terrorism’
Updated 2 min 44 sec ago
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Turkiye dismisses two opposition mayors over ‘terrorism’

Turkiye dismisses two opposition mayors over ‘terrorism’
  • The mayors of Tunceli and Ovacik were each sentenced to six years and three months in prison this week for membership of the outlawed PKK
  • Both were replaced by state-appointed administrators

ISTANBUL: Two opposition mayors in eastern Turkiye have been removed from office after being convicted of “terrorism” for belonging to a banned Kurdish militant group, the interior minister said on Friday.
The mayors of Tunceli and Ovacik were each sentenced to six years and three months in prison this week for membership of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged a guerilla insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984.
Both were replaced by state-appointed administrators, the interior ministry said in a statement, in the latest ousting of politicians associated with Turkiye’s Kurdish minority.
Tunceli’s deposed mayor Cevdet Konak, is a member of Turkiye’s main pro-Kurdish party.
The Peoples’ Equality and Democracy party is regularly targeted by the authorities which accuse it of having links to the PKK, which is classified as a terrorist group by Ankara and its Western allies.
Ovacik’s deposed mayor Mustafa Sarigul is affiliated with the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), which came out on top in local elections held at the end of March.
Both Konak and Sarigul told local press on Thursday that the accusations against them were unfounded.
Angry protesters gathered Friday evening in front of Tunceli city hall, where some people tried to force their way through a police cordon, according to images published by several local media groups.
In late October and early November, the pro-Kurdish mayors of three towns in Turkiye’s Kurdish-majority southeast, as well the CHP mayor of Istanbul’s most populous district, were likewise dismissed on “terrorism” charges.
Their dismissals sparked protests and were condemned by the Council of Europe and human rights organizations.
Konak’s party condemned late Friday the dismissal of both mayors, saying that “the government is slowly destroying the will of the people.”
Meanwhile, CHP party leader Ozgur Ozel denounced the “theft of the will of the nation.”


4 Italian UN peacekeepers injured by rocket attack in Lebanon

4 Italian UN peacekeepers injured by rocket attack in Lebanon
Updated 22 November 2024
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4 Italian UN peacekeepers injured by rocket attack in Lebanon

4 Italian UN peacekeepers injured by rocket attack in Lebanon
  • Israeli forces continue to pound targets in southern Lebanon and suburbs of Beirut
  • Paramedics and health facilities among those attacked; women and infants among dead as searches for victims buried in rubble continue

BEIRUT: At least five medical workers were reported dead on Friday as Israeli forces continued to pound targets in southern Lebanon and the outskirts of Beirut.

The attacks intensified after US envoy Amos Hochstein left Tel Aviv on Thursday evening and returned to Washington after discussions with Israeli authorities. This followed his talks with Lebanese officials on Tuesday and Wednesday about a proposed diplomatic solution to the conflict in Lebanon between the Israeli army and Hezbollah, which marked its 52nd day on Friday. Hochstein did not disclose the outcome of the discussions.

On Friday, the UN Interim Force in Lebanon’s Italian unit reported that four of its soldiers were injured when two rockets struck their headquarters in the western sector, in Shamaa. Tasked with monitoring the Blue Line that separates Lebanon from Israel, UNIFIL’s 10,000 peacekeepers have repeatedly come under fire during the conflict.

Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, expressed her “deep indignation and concern” over “new attacks suffered by the Italian headquarters of UNIFIL in southern Lebanon.” She said “these attacks are unacceptable” and called on “the parties on the ground to guarantee, at all times, the safety of UNIFIL soldiers and to collaborate to identify those responsible quickly.”

UNIFIL said “two 122 mm rockets struck the Sector West headquarters” in Shamaa, about 5 kilometers from the Israeli border. The area has been a battleground for about a week. The injuries to the peacekeepers were not life-threatening and they were receiving treatment at the base’s hospital.

“UNIFIL strongly urges combating parties to avoid fighting next to its positions,” the force added.

Hezbollah said its fighters targeted Israeli troops in Shamaa with a salvo of rockets to prevent them from occupying the area. Israeli forces had advanced into the area over the previous two days and attempted further incursions toward the coastal town of Bayada, between Naqoura and Tyre.

Italy’s defense minister, Guido Crosetto, said he had contacted his Lebanese counterpart “reiterating that the Italian contingent of UNIFIL remains in southern Lebanon to offer a window of opportunity for peace, and cannot become hostage to attacks by militias.”

Also on Friday, the Israeli army carried out airstrikes on Beirut’s suburbs, targeting buildings in Ain Al-Remmaneh, a predominantly Christian area adjacent to Chiyah.

Israeli forces also continued their attempts to advance into southern towns. A force entered Deir Mimas, beyond the border town of Kfarkela, where it ordered eight families still residing there to remain in their homes.

Deir Mimas is in the Marjayoun district of Nabatiyeh Governorate, about 90 kilometers from Beirut. Its mayor, George Nakad, confirmed “the incursion” and said soldiers had entered it from Kfarkela, through olive fields.

Photos circulating on social media appeared to show Israeli tanks crossing the Litani road at the Qlayaa-Deir Mimas-Burj Al-Molouk triangle, supported by aerial cover and airstrikes on southern regions.

Elsewhere, Hezbollah said it targeted an Israeli Merkava tank with a guided missile south of the town of Khiam, which the Israeli army entered on Thursday. The tank was destroyed and its crew killed or injured, it added.

Israel on Friday intensified its reconnaissance flights over Lebanese regions exposed to airstrikes. Before 7 a.m., Israeli evacuation warnings circulated on social media ahead of strikes on parts of Hadath, Haret Hreik and Kafaat in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

About 30 minutes later, airstrikes hit residential buildings, one of which was located near the Lebanese University campus. Thick black smoke blanketed the area and the smell of gunpowder and other substances spread through neighborhoods, with reports of breathing problems and eye irritation.

Less than four hours later, Israeli forces issued a warning to residents of the Chiyah and Ain Al-Remaneh areas, and then targeted two residential buildings that also housed a medical laboratory, a gym, hair salons, beauty clinics, and clothes and fishing-tackle shops. One building was destroyed, the other cut in half.

The Israeli warnings sparked mass hysteria and displacement of the local population in Ain Al-Remaneh. Residents of Chiyah joined the exodus. Clashes were reported among the crowds after some blamed Hezbollah for the conflict. Six Israeli raids on the areas had taken place as of noon on Friday. The previous day, parts of the southern suburbs were hit intermittently by more than 10 Israeli air attacks.

In southern Lebanon, meanwhile, Israeli forces once again targeted ambulances belonging to Hezbollah’s Islamic Health Organization, which they said were were being used to “transport militants or weapons.” An attack on one of the organization’s ambulances at Deir Qanun junction, Ras Al-Ain, killed the paramedics inside.

The Lebanese Ministry of Health said Israel forces were targeting paramedics and medical facilities in the south in violation of international laws and norms and humanitarian laws.

Israel also targeted villages in the deep south, including Ghaziyeh and areas in the vicinity of Sidon, with heavy attacks that reportedly resulted in casualties and great destruction.

Meanwhile, search operations continued to find bodies under the rubble of houses and other buildings damaged or destroyed by Israeli attacks. Raids on southern villages, including Kafr Rumman, have resulted in seven confirmed deaths and one injury.

Four bodies were found under the rubble in Arabsalim. In Bekaa, several members of one family, including women and children, were killed by Israeli attacks on the village of Flawiye on Thursday. One person was reported missing. Eleven people from several families, including infants, were killed in attacks on Nabha.

Attacks on targets in northern Bekaa reached a peak on Thursday night, with 18 raids that killed 17 people in Baalbek, Maqneh, Younine, Beit Mchik, Brital and Hosh Al-Rafika.

Lebanese residents in areas stretching from Beirut to the Bekaa Valley and northern regions were alarmed on Friday morning by suspicious calls urging them to evacuate their homes. The calls sparked panic for a second consecutive day among people in several areas, including hotel guests in Beirut's Raouche district, residents of villages in Zgharta, and people in the village of Bebnine in Akkar, in the far north of the country

Others who received calls included residents of Beirut and its northern and eastern suburbs, including Furn El-Chebbak, Dekwaneh, Mar Roukoz, Burj Abi Haidar, Basta, Ras El-Nabeh, Bchamoun, Choueifat, and as far as Jbeil.

Hezbollah on Friday reaffirmed its ability to maintain its attacking threat and said it had targeted several locations in northern Israel. They included the settlement of Kiryat Shmona, the Haifa technical base about 35 kilometers from the border, and an Israeli early-warning and intelligence center linked to the 210th Golan Division on the summit of Mount Hermon in the occupied Syrian Golan. The Dovev barracks and a gathering of Israeli forces in the Manara settlement were also attacked.

Across Lebanon on Friday, national flags were raised at official institutions to mark the 81st anniversary of the country’s independence. In hundreds of shelters, children from displaced families sang the Lebanese national anthem, and some young people symbolically hoisted flags over the rubble in areas ravaged by recent attacks.

The speaker of the Lebanese parliament, Nabih Berri, described this year’s anniversary of independence as “a somber occasion, yet a reminder of the daily challenge to persevere, to uphold national unity, and to protect every inch of our homeland — south, north, east and sea — without surrender or despair.”

 


UN warns some who fled to Syria risking lives to return to Lebanon

UN warns some who fled to Syria risking lives to return to Lebanon
Updated 22 November 2024
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UN warns some who fled to Syria risking lives to return to Lebanon

UN warns some who fled to Syria risking lives to return to Lebanon
  • Gonzalo Vargas Llosa, the UN refugee agency’s representative in Syria, said: “These are very, very small numbers, but for us, even small numbers are worrying signals“
  • The UNHCR estimates that around 560,000 people have fled into Syria from neighboring Lebanon since late September

GENEVA: The UN voiced concern Friday that conditions were so dire in Syria that some Lebanese residents who had fled there seeking refuge from the Israel-Hezbollah war were opting to return to Lebanon.
There are “Lebanese families who are beginning to take the very difficult and potentially life-threatening decision to return to Lebanon,” said Gonzalo Vargas Llosa, the United Nations refugee agency’s representative in Syria.
“These are very, very small numbers, but for us, even small numbers are worrying signals,” he told reporters in Geneva via video link from the Syrian-Lebanese border.
The UNHCR estimates that around 560,000 people have fled into Syria from neighboring Lebanon since late September, when months of cross-border fire between Israel and Hezbollah over the war in Gaza escalated into all-out war.
Lebanese authorities put the number even higher, at more than 610,000.
Vargas Llosa said that around 65 percent of those crossing into Syria — itself torn apart by 13 years of civil war — were Syrian nationals who had sought refuge in Lebanon from that conflict.
He pointed out that from 2017 up to September 23 this year, around 400,000 Syrians had returned to their country from Lebanon.
“We have had more or less the same number... in a period of seven to eight weeks,” he said, adding that some 150,000 Lebanese had also arrived in Syria during that period.
He hailed the “exemplary” and “extraordinary display of generosity” shown toward those arriving by communities across Syria, “whose infrastructure is destroyed, whose economy is destroyed.”
But he warned that given Syria’s own “catastrophic economic situation... it is unclear for how long this generosity will last.”
Worrying signs were already emerging, he said, pointing to the admittedly small numbers of people who were opting to return to Lebanon despite the risks.
UNHCR said that “on average up to 50 Lebanese individuals per day” were crossing back into Lebanon.
They were leaving because they thought “the conditions in Syria are appalling, and that they may be better off in Lebanon, in spite of the bombings,” Vargas Llosa said.
Back in Lebanon, they might have better support systems, easier access to services and even the ability to generate a little income, he said.
He warned that “unless there is a real injection of international support... this number of Lebanese choosing to return home to these extraordinarily difficult circumstances may grow in the coming weeks and months.”
“This would be extremely worrying.”
There were even some Syrian returnees who were opting to once again cross back into Lebanon, “primarily because of the extraordinarily dire economic conditions here in Syria,” Vargas Llosa said.
In the meantime, he said that there had recently been “an important decrease in the pace of arrivals” into Syria, from a peak of 10,000-15,000 per day to an average now of about 2,000.
Vargas Llosa charged that this was likely linked to Israel’s repeated bombings of border crossings.
“Syrians and Lebanese are very scared of using these escape routes,” he said, appealing to the Israeli military to “immediately stop these unacceptable attacks.”


Israeli strikes batter Lebanon, killing five medics

Israeli strikes batter Lebanon, killing five medics
Updated 22 November 2024
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Israeli strikes batter Lebanon, killing five medics

Israeli strikes batter Lebanon, killing five medics
  • Israel has pushed on with its intense military campaign against Hezbollah, tempering hopes that efforts by a US envoy could lead to an imminent ceasefire
  • Hezbollah said it had fired rockets at Israeli troops east of Khiyam at least four times on Friday

BEIRUT: Israeli strikes battered southern Lebanon and the outskirts of the capital Beirut on Friday, killing at least five medics, as ground troops clashed with Hezbollah fighters in the south.
Israel has pushed on with its intense military campaign against the Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah, tempering hopes that efforts by a US envoy could lead to an imminent ceasefire.
US mediator Amos Hochstein said earlier this week in Beirut that a truce was “within our grasp.” He traveled on to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz before returning to Washington, according to the news outlet Axios.
His trip aimed to end more than a year of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah along Lebanon’s southern border, which escalated dramatically when Israel ramped up its strikes in late September and sent ground troops into Lebanon on Oct. 1.
Israeli troops have fought Hezbollah in a strip of towns all along the border and this week pushed deeper to the edges of Khiyam, a town some six km (four miles) from the border. Hezbollah said it had fired rockets at Israeli troops east of Khiyam at least four times on Friday.
Lebanese security sources told Reuters that Israeli troops had also advanced in a string of villages to the west as well. They said Israel was most likely trying to isolate Khiyam ahead of a major attack on the town.
Israeli strikes on two other villages in southern Lebanon killed a total of five medics from a rescue force affiliated with Hezbollah, the Lebanese health ministry said.
The more than 3,500 people killed by Israeli strikes over the last year include more than 200 medics, the health ministry said.
Israel says its aim is to secure the return home of tens of thousands of people evacuated from Israel’s north due to rocket attacks by Hezbollah, which began firing across the border in support of Hamas at the start of the Gaza war in October 2023.
Israel also mounted more strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, a once densely populated stronghold of Hezbollah.
It issued evacuation orders on the social media platform X for several buildings in the area on Friday. Reuters footage showed one of the strikes appearing to pierce the center of a multi-story building, sending the whole structure toppling in a massive cloud of smoke.