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This is an October 1973 moment for the Middle East, when the region was on the cusp of an all-out regional war, with Israel at its center. Inconclusive in its outcome, the conflict began a long and arduous endeavor to end all wars. It almost did. October 1973 was a classical war in the sense that the clashes were between Israel and regular Arab armies, with one side being backed by the US and the other by the now-defunct Soviet Union.
But this time the situation is different. It was Israel that lit the fuse by launching two lethal strikes only a few hours apart, first targeting Fouad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah military commander, in the heart of Beirut’s southern suburbs, and then Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran — the heart of what Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu calls Iran’s axis of evil.
One has to view those two dramatic incidents against the backdrop of Israel’s 10-month war in Gaza. This is a war that Israel has no choice but to wage for different reasons. Before Oct. 7, the Israeli public was profoundly polarized, and on the verge of civil strife in protest against the far-right coalition’s attempt to curtail the powers of the judiciary, giving the executive branch unlimited authority with virtually no oversight.
Netanyahu was in deep water, facing a widespread backlash, while staving off legal prosecution over alleged corruption and abuse of power.
Then Hamas launched its attack, sending shockwaves across Israel. Netanyahu saw a way out. He declared war on Hamas and the hapless people of Gaza. He delivered a typical Zionist lachrymose lament of Jews being the victims of yet another massacre, bemoaning the historical victimization of the Jews.
Israeli tanks breached the fences, fighter jets dropped 1,000-pound bombs, and a killing spree ensued — as it continues until today, with the Palestinian death toll approaching 40,000.
There was no day-after scenario. Israel wanted to decapitate Hamas, even if that meant killing as many Palestinians as possible. Initial sympathy for Israel soon dissipated. The killing fields of Gaza horrified the world.
Hezbollah stepped in as soon as Israel launched its war, launching missiles and drones, and displacing thousands of Israelis in the north of the country. Its purpose was to support Gaza and the Palestinian resistance. Hezbollah called it the “unity of the battlefields.” Israel retaliated, but avoided all-out confrontation. Then, the Houthis of Yemen stepped in. This was soon becoming an international crisis. Israel found itself targeted by Iranian proxies in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon. All were non-state actors. No regular Arab armies were involved. This was to become the new geopolitical reality of the region.
Only a decisive US response can rein in an unhinged Netanyahu.
Osama Al-Sharif
The common denominator in the anti-Israel coalition was Iran. Arab governments took a backseat. This was a new twist in the age-old Israel-Palestine conflict.
But after 10 months in Gaza, Israel was running out of military objectives. It was facing a dangerous war of attrition, one that was crippling its economy and running down its troops. It found itself bogged down in Gaza, while unable to neutralize Hezbollah. Netanyahu’s war was all but lost. But he was adamant.
When Israel struck the Iranian consulate in Damascus last April, it did not expect the Iranian response: hundreds of missiles and drones fired directly from Iran against the heart of Israel. The US stepped in to defend Israel, reinforcing the view that without US support, Israel was vulnerable.
So, what prompted Netanyahu to sanction the two high-stakes assassinations at this point in time? Such a painful and humiliating blow to Iran and its proxies would never pass without a bold response. Netanyahu knew precisely what he was doing when he ordered the strikes. He knew that Hezbollah and Iran would retaliate, joined by other pro-Iran groups, such as the Houthis in Yemen and the Popular Mobilization Units in Iraq. For months, he was seeking to expand the war, and lure in the US and other Western allies to strike Iran and its proxies.
Having failed to deliver the promised decisive victory in Gaza or neutralize Hezbollah’s threat in the north, Netanyahu’s survival instincts took over. He decided to break the rules of engagement, and put the US-Israeli alliance to its most severe test.
As is the case with Gaza, the Israeli leader has no plan for the day after when Iran and its proxies deliver their promised response. Israel has vowed to retaliate if attacked. The US sent a carrier strike group, a fighter squadron, and additional warships to the region. Its regional allies are apprehensive. No one wants a protracted and unpredictable war in the Middle East — except for Netanyahu and his radical coalition partners.
The double assassinations have derailed US President Joe Biden’s ceasefire and hostage exchange deal. Netanyahu never really committed to ending the war in that manner. In his speech to Congress, he sought to incite lawmakers against Iran, just as he did in 2015 and before. He did the same against Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Muammar Qaddafi in Libya, and, before them, the Soviet Union.
What Netanyahu wants is an endless war against anyone in the region who poses a threat to Israel, while denying Palestinians any right to end the occupation and establish a state. He is willing to endanger Israel’s security and existence by forcing the US to go to war in defense of Israel, even when Israel is the belligerent party. He has manipulated the US for decades and believes that he can do so again.
Only a decisive US response can rein in an unhinged Netanyahu. Biden, still president, can prevent a regional war that could quickly spiral into a global conflict. The only reason that Iran and its proxies are using the Palestinian cause to threaten Israel is Netanyahu’s rejection of Palestinian rights and his execution of a plan to erase the Palestinian people. The US and the rest of the world must contain Netanyahu and force a deal that delivers a Palestinian state. We are five minutes to midnight, and unless a bold US intervention takes place, the region will quickly slip into the unknown.
- Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. X: @plato010