Oil Updates – prices rebound 1% on concerns wider Middle East conflict may cut supply

Brent crude futures gained 76 cents, or 1 percent, to $77.06 a barrel by 8:38 a.m. Saudi time. Shutterstock
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  • Fear of wider Middle East conflict leads to fresh buying
  • US passes message to Iran not to escalate

TOKYO/SINGAPORE: Oil prices rebounded by 1 percent on Tuesday, paring the previous session’s loss, on supply concern amid an escalating Middle East conflict, stronger US services sector data and a cut in production at Libya’s Sharara oilfield.

Brent crude futures gained 76 cents, or 1 percent, to $77.06 a barrel by 8:38 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 92 cents, or 1.26 percent, to $73.86.

On Monday, both benchmarks fell about 1 percent against a backdrop of falling global stock markets.

Oil’s slide was limited by mounting concern that Iran, a key Middle Eastern producer, may retaliate against Israel and the US for the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran and an Israeli attack that killed a Hezbollah commander in Lebanon, potentially leading to a wider regional war.

On Monday, at least five US personnel were injured in an attack against a military base in Iraq, US officials told Reuters. It was unclear whether the attack was linked to the retaliation threats.

The US has been urging countries to convey to Iran that escalation is not in its interest, a State Department spokesperson said on Monday.

“Oil seems to have clawed back some of its losses as broader concerns of a possible escalation in Middle Eastern conflict continue to add (to) apprehensions in (the) oil market. The possibility of an all-out war in (the) Middle East is getting real, threatening global supplies,” Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at Phillip Nova in Singapore, said in an email.

Oil was also supported by overnight data showing service sector activity in the US, the world’s biggest oil consumer, rebounded from a four-year low in July.

Price gains also occurred amid a broader rally in Asian equity markets after they plunged on Monday.

“The broad-based recovery in risk sentiments and more resilient US services sector data offer some support for prices,” said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong in an email.

“Concerns around US growth risks are eased by resilience in US services activities, but it may have to take more to reassure markets of a stronger global demand outlook for oil.”

Worries over lower production at Libya’s 300,000 barrel-per-day Sharara oil field buoyed prices further. Output at the field, one of the country’s largest, has fallen by around 20 percent due to protests.

These production troubles have offset some of the earlier macro bearishness in the market, said ING analysts in a client note.