Russia, Iran forging new links as a result of Ukraine war

Armed drones have come to play a major role in the war in Ukraine, as highlighted by attacks by both sides in recent days. The drones used by Russia include ones provided by Iran. Russia’s need for drones and munitions to fight its war against Ukraine has provided Iran with an opportunity, and military relations between Russia and Iran are reorienting toward a closer relationship that will have long-term implications.
Relations between Iran and Russia have a complicated history. Iranians remember the history of Russia trying to dominate Persian land and how Russia and the UK divided their country into spheres of influence. In more modern times, Tehran and Moscow have held very different ideologies and views on religion. Previously, the two countries were competitors in global energy markets. They have often held different interests in the Middle East, the South Caucasus and Afghanistan. Conflicting interests and perspectives limited cooperation between the two countries. Another obstacle was that both states had reason to worry that close cooperation might draw the ire of Western states and the threat of economic sanctions.
Some of those potential sources of tension and rivalry remain today, but circumstances have changed and both countries are pursuing closer bilateral relations, particularly in military cooperation.
The first factor that really opened up a new path in current Russia-Iran relations was the war in Syria. While maintaining their own interests and military approaches, Russia and Iran also cooperated to support the Assad regime. Their roles were different — for example, Iran offered desperately needed ground forces while Russia’s primary contribution was air power — but they shared the goal of ensuring the Assad regime’s survival. The coordination necessary to achieve this mutual goal helped to develop new connections between the Russian and Iranian militaries.
The war in Ukraine was the second major factor driving a closer Russian-Iranian military relationship. When Russia launched its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, it badly overestimated its ability to quickly conquer much of the country, leading it into a war that has now lasted more than two years and required major military resources. Two aspects of the war significantly contributed to ties between Tehran and Moscow: Russia had a pressing need for military materiel and Moscow joined Iran in facing severe economic sanctions.
Military links between Russia and Iran are not new. However, until recently, those ties went mostly one way, with Russia providing various forms of military assistance, technology and weaponry to Iran. Russia’s assistance was important to Iran but also limited. The war in Ukraine has reshaped the Russia-Iran relationship. As Hanna Notte and Jim Lawson last week wrote on the “War on the Rocks” website: “Cooperation has moved past the previous patron-client dynamic, with Iran emerging as a key enabler of Russia’s air and ground campaign in Ukraine.”

The war has consumed huge amounts of munitions on both sides and Iran has helped to meet Russian supply needs.

Kerry Boyd Anderson

Iran has played an important role in helping to meet Russian battlefield needs in Ukraine. The war has consumed huge amounts of munitions on both sides and Iran has helped to meet Russian supply needs. Furthermore, Iran has grabbed global attention by providing Russia with, according to media reports, more than 2,000 armed drones, which have played a significant role in the war. Russia is also developing a factory in Tatarstan designed to improve upon and mass produce the Iranian drones.
The shared experience of trying to cope with intense sanctions has also strengthened the relationship between the two countries. In the past, both sides had reasons, at different points, to approach certain types of bilateral trade and investment with caution, fearing that they might run afoul of Western sanctions. However, since 2022, both countries have faced severe sanctions that have disrupted their economies and reoriented trade relationships. This reality has removed concern that working together might worsen the sanctions against them, while also creating an incentive for the two countries to help each other circumvent the sanctions.
The Russia-Iran relationship is likely to remain one of convenience rather than a committed alliance. The two countries have a complicated history and very different governance styles and cultural values. Pragmatically, their interests do not always align. For example, Moscow will try to strengthen relations with Iran without alienating the Gulf Arab states or Israel — not an easy balance, especially while Iran supports the Houthis.
Nonetheless, Moscow and Tehran have reasons for deepening ties. Leaders in both countries view the world largely through an anti-US lens and see themselves as sharing the goal of undermining American interests. Together, they can create more problems for Washington in Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia than they can alone.
Russia and Iran are both likely to face economic sanctions for a long time, which increases the incentive for them to expand bilateral trade and financial links to help counter the impacts of sanctions. In just one example, the two countries are pursuing increased Russian investment in Iranian oil and gas projects.
Iran is likely to remain reliant on Russia for assistance in areas requiring more advanced technologies, such as space, nuclear and air defense, while Russia may become increasingly reliant on Iran to provide large quantities of munitions and drones. Even if the war in Ukraine ends, the deepening ties between the two countries sets the stage for years of enhanced cooperation.

• Kerry Boyd Anderson is an analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. X: @KBAresearch