What is the human cost of Israel’s relentless pursuit of Hamas commanders in Gaza?

Analysis What is the human cost of Israel’s relentless pursuit of Hamas commanders in Gaza?
Children react after Israeli bombardment as they take refuge at the Jaouni school run by the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip on July 6, 2024 amid the ongoing conflict in the Palestinian territory between Israel and Hamas. (AFP)
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Updated 24 July 2024
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What is the human cost of Israel’s relentless pursuit of Hamas commanders in Gaza?

What is the human cost of Israel’s relentless pursuit of Hamas commanders in Gaza?
  • Hundreds of Palestinians have died in operations that Israeli forces say targeted Hamas fighters or aimed to free hostages
  • The civilian toll following Israel’s recent bombing of Al-Mawasi and Khan Younis has drawn international condemnation

LONDON: Israel’s military has killed dozens of Palestinian civilians and wounded hundreds more, including children, in its relentless pursuit of Hamas commanders in Gaza, despite designating many of its areas of operation as “safe zones.”

Palestinian health officials said on Monday that 16 civilians were killed in eastern Khan Younis under Israeli shelling, even after Israel issued new orders to evacuate some neighborhoods to keep the civilian population away from areas of combat.

This latest bloodshed followed Israel’s July 13 airstrike on Al-Mawasi camp, another designated safe zone in southern Gaza, which killed at least 90 Palestinians and wounded 300 others, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.

Israel said the target of this strike was Mohammed Deif, head of Hamas’ military wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, as well as Rafa Salama, commander of the group’s Khan Younis Brigade, whom Israel believes was a mastermind of the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack.

Denying reports of his death, a Hamas official told the AFP news agency following the strike that Deif was “well and directly overseeing” operations, but he provided no proof for the claim.

Meanwhile, Daniel Hagari, the spokesman for the Israeli military, has said “there are increasing signs that we succeeded in the elimination of Mohammed Deif.”




Smoke rises from Gaza, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. (Reuters)

Speaking to Al-Arabiya TV channel on Friday, he said: “Rafa Salama was certainly eliminated; Mohammed Deif and Salama sat side by side during the strike. Hamas is hiding what happened to Deif.”

Herzi Halevi, Israel’s chief of the general staff, has also accused Hamas of “concealing the results” of the strike on a west Khan Younis compound, where both Deif and Salama were purportedly hiding.

Regardless of whether the strike on Al-Mawasi was successful or not, the attack on an area packed with civilians drew global condemnation, with observers accusing the Israeli military of violating international humanitarian law.

Josep Borrell Fontelles, the high representative of the EU for foreign affairs and security policy, wrote on the social media platform X: “Wars have limits enshrined in international law; end can’t justify all means. We condemn the violation.”

He added: “Once again we call for access to independent investigations and accountability, and for an end to the appalling situation of innocent civilians in Gaza.”

On the day of the attack, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi “to express our serious concern about the recent civilian casualties in Gaza.”




Women react after Israeli bombardment as they take refuge at the Jaouni school. (AFP)

The deadly Al-Mawasi strike was not the first incident since the conflict began on Oct. 7 in which the Israeli military has been accused of disregarding the safety of civilians and violating international humanitarian law in the pursuit of Hamas commanders.

In the fighting since the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attack, at least 38,900 Palestinians, including more than 13,000 children, have been killed, according to the UN Human Rights Office. The proportion of the dead who were combatants is a matter of dispute.

The Israeli army’s bombing campaign, which Israeli officials say is aimed at Hamas and not civilian targets, has also destroyed medical, sanitation, and educational infrastructure across the Palestinian enclave.

Last month, in an operation that rescued four hostages, the Israeli military killed and injured hundreds of Palestinians in the densely populated Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza.

The Israeli military said there were “under 100” Palestinian casualties but was uncertain how many of them were “terrorists.”

But almost a quarter of the 142 killed in the operation were women and children, Al-Awda Hospital in Nuseirat told BBC Arabic’s “Gaza Today” show, adding that 250 others were injured.




Children walk past a destroyed classroom in the Gaza Strip. (AFP)

Expressing “profound shock” at the impact on civilians in Nuseirat, UN spokesman Jeremy Laurence said the Israeli forces’ actions “seriously call into question whether the principles of distinction, proportionality, and precaution … were upheld.”

In March, the Israeli military mounted a raid on Gaza’s largest medical facility, Al-Shifa Hospital, where it claimed Hamas fighters and other Palestinian militants were hiding.

Some 3,000 people were sheltering in Al-Shifa at the time of Israel’s raid, Gaza’s Hamas-run Health Ministry said. At least 1,500 Palestinians, including 13 children and 21 patients, were killed in the two-week raid, according to the Euro-Med Monitor, a nongovernmental organization headquartered in Geneva.

Israeli officials said that “over 200 terrorists” were killed in and around Al-Shifa, as well as hundreds detained, including several Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives.

It has been impossible to independently verify the reported numbers due to a lack of reporting access to Gaza.




Israeli soldiers travel in a military vehicle by the Israel-Gaza border. (Reuters)

Between July 8 and 12, Israel attacked six schools operated by the UN Relief and Works Agency, killing dozens of civilians sheltering in the area, before reportedly razing the UN agency’s headquarters in Gaza City on July 15.

Israel has accused local staff at UNRWA of participating in the Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel, prompting the UN agency to launch an internal investigation and several major donors, including the US, to suspend funding for its operation in Gaza and throughout the region.

UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini called Israel’s attack on his agency’s Gaza headquarters “another episode in the blatant disregard of international humanitarian law.”

In a post on X, he said: “UN facilities must be protected at all times. They must never be used for military or fighting purposes. Every war has rules. Gaza is no exception.”

In a separate post, Lazzarini stressed that “schools must never be used for fighting or military purposes by any party to the conflict.”

NOTABLE CIVILIAN CASUALTY EVENTS

• Oct. 7, 2023: 1,200 Israeli and other nationals killed in southern Israel, hundreds taken hostage, in Hamas-led attack.

• Oct. 31, 2023: 110+ Palestinians killed in Israeli strike targeting ‘senior Hamas commander’ in Jabalya refugee camp in northern Gaza.

• Feb. 29, 2024: 112 Palestinians waiting for aid killed, 760 more injured outside Gaza City amid Israeli gunfire and panic.

• April 1: 7 World Central Kitchen workers killed in Israeli strikes in violation of military procedures on convoy delivering aid in Gaza.

• May 27: 45+ Palestinians killed in Israeli strike targeting ‘two senior Hamas commanders’ in Rafah.

• June 9: 274 Palestinians killed in Israeli military raid that freed 4 hostages who were held in Nuseirat refugee camp.

• July 13: 90+ Palestinians killed, 300 wounded in Israeli airstrike targeting Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif in Al-Mawasi.

Source: Gaza Health Ministry, Israeli govt.

Warning that “all rules of war have been broken in Gaza,” he said: “The blatant and constant disregard of international humanitarian law continues unabated.”

Israel has consistently denied accusations that it targets civilian infrastructure, accusing Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups of using tunnels under Gaza’s hospitals to mount attacks and conceal weapons, thereby using the population as human shields.

Commenting on Israel’s conduct, a New York-based international lawyer, who asked to remain anonymous, told Arab News that in the Gaza war, “international law remains relevant as a framework for accountability and justice by providing mechanisms to hold perpetrators accountable for war crimes, genocide, and other atrocities.”




Palestinians walk on a street flooded with sewage water in Deir El-Balah. (AFP)

The International Criminal Court, which prosecutes individuals accused of war crimes, has made an attempt to hold “both parties to the conflict” accountable for alleged war crimes.

Israeli officials believe the ICC is likely to issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant within the next two weeks, Israeli media reported on July 17.

Karim Khan, ICC chief prosecutor, filed an application in May for arrest warrants against two Israeli and three Palestinian individuals suspected of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Hamas commander Deif was among the Palestinians listed in the ICC’s arrest warrant, alongside Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’ political bureau, and Yahya Sinwar, head of the Islamist movement in Gaza.

The arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant accused them of using starvation as a tool of war, extermination, and deliberately attacking civilian populations, alongside other war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Opinion

This section contains relevant reference points, placed in (Opinion field)

Khan said he had “reasonable grounds” to believe the five men bore “criminal responsibility” for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity during the war in Gaza.

The decision caused anger among the Hamas leadership, in Israel, and even in the US. US President Joe Biden described the move as “outrageous,” saying there was “no equivalence — none — between Israel and Hamas.”

Hamas said the ICC’s prosecutor was “equating the victim with the executioner” and demanded the withdrawal of the allegations against its leaders.




Israel has consistently denied accusations that it targets civilian infrastructure. (AFP)

The New York-based international lawyer said that although international law and ongoing developments “create a foundation for addressing atrocities and fostering a more just and peaceful world,” its enforcement “can be inconsistent and subject to political influence.”

On July 19, the UN’s International Court of Justice at The Hague declared Israel’s occupation and annexation of the Palestinian territories, including the Gaza Strip, the West Banks and East Jerusalem, to be “unlawful” in a landmark ruling.

Stating that Israel’s discriminatory laws and policies against Palestinians violate the prohibition on racial segregation and apartheid, the ICJ also ordered Israel to end its occupation of the Palestinian territories “as rapidly as possible.”

Israel has since Oct. 7 also mounted dozens of raids on the West Bank and East Jerusalem, killing at least 500 Palestinians, 143 of them children, according to UN figures.

The ICJ’s recent ruling, however, is a non-binding advisory opinion that was sought by the UN General Assembly in 2022, preceding the Israeli onslaught on Gaza and not directly linked to it.

Responding to the ruling, Netanyahu’s office issued a statement saying: “The Jewish people are not occupiers in their own land — not in our eternal capital Jerusalem, nor in our ancestral heritage of Judea and Samaria (the occupied West Bank).

“No decision of lies in The Hague will distort this historical truth, and similarly, the legality of Israeli settlements in all parts of our homeland cannot be disputed.”

In December last year, South Africa brought a case against Israel before the ICJ, alleging it had committed genocide against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.




Between July 8 and 12, Israel attacked six schools operated by the UN Relief and Works Agency, killing dozens of civilians sheltering in the area. (Reuters)

The ICJ issued a provisional ruling in January, modified in May, ordering Israel to “immediately halt its military offensive” and urging Hamas to release the hostages immediately and unconditionally.

Regardless, Israel has continued to bomb Rafah and other parts of the Gaza Strip where well over a million displaced Palestinians are sheltered, while Hamas is believed to still hold 116 hostages.

No amount of legal wrangling has brought the conflict closer to resolution.

Diplomats and region watchers continue to call on both sides to accept an immediate ceasefire, to exchange hostages and prisoners, and to actively pursue a solution to the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including the creation of an independent Palestinian state.

 


Israeli protesters keep up pressure for Gaza hostage deal

Israeli protesters keep up pressure for Gaza hostage deal
Updated 5 sec ago
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Israeli protesters keep up pressure for Gaza hostage deal

Israeli protesters keep up pressure for Gaza hostage deal
  • Weekly rallies have sought to keep up pressure on the Israeli government, accused by critics of stalling on a deal to free the remaining hostages

TEL AVIV: Thousands of people again took to the streets of Israel’s main cities on Saturday in a bid to increase pressure on the government to secure the release of hostages in Gaza.
Of 251 captives seized during Hamas’s October 7 attack on southern Israel that triggered the ongoing war, 97 are still held in the Gaza Strip including 33 the Israeli military says are dead.
Weekly rallies have sought to keep up pressure on the Israeli government, accused by critics of stalling on a deal to free the remaining hostages.
Protest organizers say crowd sizes have swelled this month after an announcement by Israeli authorities that six hostages whose bodies were recovered by troops had been shot dead by militants in a southern Gaza tunnel.
One of the six was Alexander Lobanov, whose wife Michal on Saturday addressed the crowd in Israel’s commercial hub of Tel Aviv, asking why the government did not “do everything” to bring him back alive.
“It was possible to save them, to rescue them through a deal,” she said, according to excerpts of her remarks provided by the Hostages and Missing Families Forum campaign group.
“True, it’s not as heroic as a military rescue, but it’s a different kind of bravery.”
Thousands of people joined the rally in Tel Aviv and another in Jerusalem, seat of the Israeli parliament, AFP correspondents said.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is facing rising anger from critics who accuse him of not doing enough to secure a truce deal that would see hostages exchanged for Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.
The vast majority of the hostages freed so far were released during a one-week truce in November. Israeli forces have rescued alive just eight.
The October 7 attack resulted in the deaths of 1,205 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli official figures.
Israel’s retaliatory military campaign to destroy Hamas has killed at least 41,182 people in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry.
Talks mediated by the United States, Egypt and Qatar to reach a deal between Israel and Hamas have stalled for months.
Demonstration organizer Noa Ben Baruch, 48, told AFP in Tel Aviv that “the urgency is unparallelled. It’s not only the hostages, it’s everything.”
As the war rages on for more than 11 months with no end in sight, “there is no point to it anymore,” she said.
“This war has to end yesterday. It’s futile.”
Around her members of the crowd waved Israeli flags and signs that read “Bring them home,” “Seal the deal,” “End the bloodshed” and “They trust us to get them out of hell.”
A group of women wore black t-shirts and jeans stained with fake blood, recreating a widely circulated picture of soldier Naama Levy taken when she was abducted on October 7.
In both Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, the names of hostages were read out on loudspeakers.
Tel Aviv resident Ran Eisenberg, 77, said rescuing them should be the government’s top priority.
“The fact that it doesn’t happen really makes me very frustrated,” he said.


Israel renews ‘anti-Semitism’ jibe against EU’s Borrell after latest criticism

Israel renews ‘anti-Semitism’ jibe against EU’s Borrell after latest criticism
Updated 16 sec ago
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Israel renews ‘anti-Semitism’ jibe against EU’s Borrell after latest criticism

Israel renews ‘anti-Semitism’ jibe against EU’s Borrell after latest criticism
  • Borrell said the Nuseirat strike showed a “disregard of the basic principles” of international humanitarian law
  • UNRWA said six of its staff were killed in two Israeli strikes on the school

JERUSALEM: Israel’s foreign minister again accused EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell of “anti-Semitism” Saturday after the top diplomat expressed outrage at the killing of UN staff in an Israeli strike in Gaza.
“Josep Borrell is an anti-Semite and Israel-hater who consistently tries to pass resolutions and sanctions against Israel in the EU, only to be blocked by most member states,” Foreign Minister Israel Katz said in a statement.
On Thursday, Borrell said he was “outraged” by the killing of six employees from the UN Palestinian refugee agency (UNRWA) in an Israeli air strike on a school-turned-shelter in the Nuseirat area of central Gaza the day before.
The attack flattened part of the UN-run Al-Jawni School on Wednesday, leaving only a pile of charred rebar and concrete.
Gaza’s civil defense agency and the United Nations said at least 18 people, among them women and children, were killed in the strike, while the Israeli military said it had targeted Hamas militants.
The military said it had killed nine militants, including three who were also UNRWA employees.
UNRWA said six of its staff were killed in two Israeli strikes on the school.
It was the deadliest single incident for the agency in more than 11 months of war and drew international condemnation.
Katz has repeatedly levelled accusations of “anti-Semitism” against the European Union foreign policy chief, who has consistently spoken out against perceived Israeli abuses in Gaza and the West Bank.
Borrell said the Nuseirat strike showed a “disregard of the basic principles” of international humanitarian law.
On Saturday, Katz retorted: “There’s a difference between legitimate criticism... and the anti-Semitic, hate-filled campaign Borrell is leading against Israel — reminiscent of history’s worst anti-Semites.”
UNRWA has said at least 220 members of the agency’s staff have been killed in the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, which was triggered by Hamas’s unprecedented attack on southern Israel on October 7.
On Friday, UNRWA announced one of its employees was killed during an Israeli raid in the occupied West Bank, the first such death in the territory in more than a decade.
UNRWA has more than 30,000 employees in the Palestinian territories and elsewhere.
It has been in crisis since Israel accused a dozen of its employees of being involved in the October 7 attack.
The UN immediately fired the implicated staff members, and a probe found some “neutrality related issues” but stressed Israel had not provided evidence for its main allegations.
 

 


The presidential campaign season in Tunisia is officially underway a day after protests

The presidential campaign season in Tunisia is officially underway a day after protests
Updated 33 min 51 sec ago
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The presidential campaign season in Tunisia is officially underway a day after protests

The presidential campaign season in Tunisia is officially underway a day after protests
  • Ben Abdelslam said he was worried about the growing number of political figures who’ve been thrown in jail under President Kais Saied

TUNIS: The official start of the presidential campaign season in Tunisia began on Saturday, a day after Tunisians took their anger to the streets of the capital to decry what protesters say is the deteriorating state of the country.
In what appeared to be the largest protest since authorities began a monthslong wave of arrests earlier this year, hundreds of Tunisians marched peacefully on Friday and called for an end to what they called a police state.
“We’re here to say no and show that we don’t all agree with what’s really happening in the country,” Khaled Ben Abdeslam, a father and urban development consultant, told The Associated Press.
In 2011, longtime Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was toppled by nationwide protests that unleashed revolt across the Arab world.
More than a decade later, Ben Abdelslam said he was worried about the growing number of political figures who’ve been thrown in jail under President Kais Saied and said he wants to ensure Tunisia “turns the page” for the good of his kids.
“Nobody dares to say or do anything anymore today,” he said as protesters neared Tunisia’s powerful Interior Ministry.
He and other demonstrators slammed both Tunisia’s economic and political woes, carrying signs that grouped together the growing costs of staple items and growing concerns about civil liberties.
“Where is sugar? Where is oil? Where is freedom? Where is democracy?” signs read.
Some carried posters telling the government that “human rights are not optional” while others revived the popular slogans that mobilized Tunisia’s masses against Ben Ali.
This time though, they directed scorn toward Saied.
The protests capped off a week in which the North African country’s largest opposition party, Ennahda, said its senior members had been arrested en masse, at a scale not previously seen.
They come as Saied prepares to campaign for reelection on Oct. 6, when he will ask voters to grant him a second term.
When first elected in 2019, Saied used anti-corruption promises to win over people disillusioned with the political controversies that plagued Tunisia’s young democracy in the years that followed the Arab Spring.
Since taking office, the 66-year-old former law professor has gone to lengths to consolidate his own power, freezing the country’s parliament and rewriting the constitution. Throughout his tenure, authorities have arrested journalists, activists, civil society figures and political opponents across the ideological spectrum.
And though he promised to chart a new course for the country, its unemployment rate has steadily increased to one of the region’s highest at 16 percent, with young Tunisians hit particularly hard.
The economy continues to face significant challenges, yet Saied has managed to energize supporters with populist rhetoric, often accusing migrants from sub-Saharan Africa of violence and crime and aiming at changing the country’s demography.
In the months leading up to his reelection bid, the political crackdown has expanded.
His opponents have been arrested, placed under gag order or faced criminal investigations that observers have called politically motivated. Figures who said they planned to challenge him have been sentenced for breaking campaign finance laws. Others have been ruled ineligible to challenge him by Tunisia’s election authority.
Even those the authority approved have later faced arrest.
Ayachi Zammel, a businessman planning to challenge Saied, was promptly arrested after being announced as one of the two candidates approved to appear on the ballot alongside Saied. His attorney, Abdessattar Messaoudi, told The Associated Press that she feared a court may bar him from politics for life as it had done to other Saied challengers.
The Tunisian Network for the Defense of Rights and Freedoms — a newly formed coalition of civil society groups and political parties — organized Friday’s protest to draw attention to what it called a surge of authoritarianism.
Outrage swelled among many members of the network after the country’s election authority — made up of Saied appointees — dismissed a court ruling ordering it to reinstate three challengers to Saied.
The authority has defied judges who have ruled in favor of candidates who have appealed its decisions and pledged not to allow Mondher Zenaidi, Abdellatif El Mekki and Imed Daimi to appear on the ballot alongside Saied next month.
​​In less than a month, Tunisian voters are expected to cast their choice in the Oct. 6 poll, amid spreading worrying and doubts about the country’s political future.
Hajjer Mohamed, a 33-year-old law firm assistant said that she and her friends were terrified about the direction Tunisia was heading in ways they couldn’t have imagined when people rejoiced the freedoms won 13 years ago.
“We never thought that after the 2011 revolution we’d live to see the country’s suffocating situation,” she said. “even under former dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the situation wasn’t as scandalous as it is today.”


How the Gaza war has impacted the pace of Abraham Accords-style Arab-Israeli normalization

How the Gaza war has impacted the pace of Abraham Accords-style Arab-Israeli normalization
Updated 10 min 14 sec ago
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How the Gaza war has impacted the pace of Abraham Accords-style Arab-Israeli normalization

How the Gaza war has impacted the pace of Abraham Accords-style Arab-Israeli normalization
  • The 2020 accords normalized relations between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain, marking a major step in the peace process
  • The Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack and the resulting war in Gaza paused the accords’ momentum, complicating future agreements

 

IN NUMBERS:

* 18% Decline in Israel’s overall trade with outside world since eruption of Gaza war in October 2023.

* 4% Decline in trade between Israel and 7 Arab countries that have normalized ties with it during the same period.

* 14% Drop in Israel-UAE trade in the last quarter of 2023 following the conflict.

(Source: Abraham Accords Peace Institute)

JONATHAN GORNALL

LONDON: It is exactly four years since Donald Trump stood on the South Lawn of the White House, flanked by a beaming Benjamin Netanyahu and the foreign ministers of Bahrain and the UAE, each holding a copy of the Abraham Accords Declaration.

The signing of the agreements on Sept. 15, 2020, a process driven by the Trump administration, appeared to be the most significant development in the Arab-Israeli peace process for years.

In the historic Abraham Accords, Bahrain and the UAE recognized Israel’s sovereignty and agreed to normalize diplomatic relations. (AFP/File)

Both Bahrain and the UAE recognized Israel’s sovereignty and agreed to normalize diplomatic relations — the only Arab states to have done so since Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994.

In so doing, as the one-page declaration signed by all four parties affirmed, they recognized “the importance of maintaining and strengthening peace in the Middle East … based on mutual understanding and coexistence,” and vowed to “seek to end radicalization and conflict and to provide all children a better future.”

A number of “firsts” followed. For the first time, it became possible to call direct to Israel from the UAE, and Emirati ships and planes began to dock and land in Israeli ports and airports. Various trade and business deals were made.

The Abraham Accords ushered in an era of understanding that saw the opening of Abu Dhabi’s Abrahamic Family House, which has been featured in TIME Magazine's annual list of the World’s Greatest Places. (WAM photo)

The region’s major player was missing from the White House photo op that day in 2020, but speculation that Saudi Arabia would soon follow suit and normalize relations with Israel was rife.

Three years later, in a groundbreaking and wide-ranging interview with Fox News, broadcast on Sept. 20, 2023, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman gave the biggest hint yet that such a historic breakthrough might be afoot.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman being interviewed by Bret Baier of Fox News in September 2023. (AN Archives)

“Every day we get closer,” the Saudi crown prince told Bret Baier of Fox News, adding Saudi Arabia could work with Israel, although he added that any such agreement, which would be “the biggest historical deal since the end of the Cold War,” would depend on positive outcomes for the Palestinians.

“If we have a breakthrough of reaching a deal that give the Palestinians their needs and make the region calm, we’re going to work with whoever is there,” he said.

Just over two weeks later, on Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas and its allies attacked Israel. All bets were off, and the Abraham Accords seemed doomed to go the way of every previous initiative in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process since the Madrid Conference of 1991.

People pay tribute near the coffins of some of the people killed in the October 7 deadly attack by Hamas militants from the Gaza Strip, during a funeral in Kfar Harif in southern Israel, on Oct. 25, 2023. (AFP)

But, say some commentators, despite the death and destruction of the past year, it would be wrong to write off the accords completely, and whether or not the process can be resuscitated could depend on which of the two main candidates in the coming US presidential election is handed the keys to the White House by the American electorate on Nov. 5.

“I’m not sure I would describe the accords as being on life support,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House (the Royal Institute of International Affairs).

“They are actually weathering this very difficult storm of the Gaza war. That is certainly putting the leadership and the decision-making in the UAE and Bahrain under a microscope, and of course that poses difficult domestic dynamics for these leaders to navigate.

“But at the same time, they remain committed to the Abraham Accords and haven’t shown any willingness to walk back from them or to break diplomatic ties. They in fact are arguing that by having diplomatic ties with Israel, they have a better avenue to support Palestinians and work behind the scenes with the Israelis.”

​This picture taken on March 28, 2024 from Israel's southern border with the Gaza Strip shows buildings which have been destroyed by Israeli strikes, amid the ongoing battles between Israeli forces and Hamas militants since the October 7 attack on southern Israel. (AFP)

As for the Israelis, “normalization with Saudi Arabia is not on the cards for now, partly because obviously the Israeli leadership has different priorities right now, and after Oct. 7, the price of normalization became higher.

“And I think the Israeli leadership is calculating that if they wait this out — and perhaps over-anticipating that the Saudis will still be there, which could be a miscalculation — the price that they have to pay for normalization will go down again.

“I think that they’re assuming that the conditions in the region might change, or perhaps if the outcome of the US election leads to a Trump victory, that might alter what they need to do, what commitments they need to make toward the Palestinians that would satisfy the Saudis.”

INNUMBERS

18% Decline in Israel’s overall trade with outside world since eruption of Gaza war in October 2023.

4% Decline in trade between Israel and 7 Arab countries that have normalized ties with it during the same period.

14% Drop in Israel-UAE trade in the last quarter of 2023 following the conflict.

(Source: Abraham Accords Peace Institute)

But for Brian Katulis, senior fellow for US foreign policy at the Middle East Institute in Washington, “it’s a coin toss” whether a Trump or Kamala Harris administration would be most likely to reinvigorate the Abraham Accords.

“As we saw in the candidates’ debate on Tuesday evening, these issues don’t really matter to either of the leaders or the political discourse in America right now,” he said.

“These questions, of the Abraham Accords, of Israel-Palestine or of Iran, don’t really drive the political and policy debate in a major way compared to US domestic issues — immigration, abortion, who we are as a country, inflation.

“When it comes to foreign policy issues, China is much more relevant as a political question.”

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Kamala Harris participate in a debate in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on September 10, 2024. (AFP)

Although, as the father of the Abraham Accords, Trump might be assumed to be keen to re-engage with an initiative he once saw as a foundation stone of his legacy — in January, a Republican lawmaker nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize — “he’s just so erratic as a leader, and I don’t know that he’ll be focused on it,” Katulis said.

“Harris may actually put more time and thought into it. In the debate, she was the only candidate who talked about a two-state solution, and that’s music to the ears of anyone in places like Saudi Arabia, which have been calling for a state of Palestine forever.”

But Saudi Arabia is unlikely to shift far from the position it took in 2002, when it was the author of the Arab Peace Initiative, which was adopted by the Council of Arab States.

This offered Israel peace and normalization of relations with all 22 Arab states, in exchange for “full Israeli withdrawal from all the Arab territories occupied since June 1967, in implementation of Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338, reaffirmed by the Madrid Conference of 1991 and the land-for-peace principle, and Israel’s acceptance of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.”

Palestinian Authority's President Mahmud Abbas holds a placard showing maps of historical Palestine as he meets by video conference with representatives of Palestinian factions gathered at the Palestinian embassy in Beirut on September 3, 2020,. (POOL/AFP)

Merissa Khurma, program director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center, said: “And of course, the Abraham Accords agreements completely flipped that formula because they offered normalization first.

“The premise they presented was that it was through these channels of communication that have now been established that we can try to address the thorny issues in the Palestinian-Israeli arena.

“But we all know that the reality on the ground was very different, that settlements and outposts have expanded and with the emergence of the most right-wing government in Israel’s history, all of that has been accelerated.

“I’ve spoken to officials and thought leaders in the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco, and there’s consensus that the Abraham Accords are, at best, on pause. Someone even said the accords are in a coma and they will need to be resuscitated after the war ends in Gaza.”

Harris, Joe Biden’s vice president, is likely to follow in his administration’s footsteps to some extent when it comes to the Abraham Accords.

“The Biden administration was a bit slow to embrace the model of the accords when they came into office, really, because, you know, they saw it as Trump’s legacy, and they were very partisan in their approach,” said Vakil.

“But they did come around, and they did begin to embrace this idea of integration through normalization. The reality, though — and this is what we’ve seen born out since Oct. 7 — is that without providing a mechanism and commitment to restart a peace process, and one that allows Palestinians to have self-determination, the accords, on their own, cannot deliver Israel’s security or provide the region with that integration, that economic and security integration that they’re seeking.”

A reboot of the agreements in the wake of the cessation of the current hostilities would be an opportunity — if not a precondition — to reconfigure them and put Palestinian demands at the top of the agenda.

“The Abraham Accords was a well-intentioned initiative led by countries in the region that wanted to prioritize their national security and economic interests,” Merissa Khurma said.

“No one can say taking the path of peace is a bad idea. But the heavy criticism from the region and the Arab public in general, which you can see in the polling from 2021 until today, is that in doing so they basically sidelined the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and flipped the formula that was the essence of the Arab Peace Initiative led by Saudi Arabia in 2002.”

To move forward successfully, said Katulis, whoever becomes America’s next president must “prioritize Palestine and make it a big item on the agenda.”

To do this, they should “go back to good old-fashioned collective diplomacy and form a regional coalition with a new international framework to create the state of Palestine. It’s ripe for the picking, and I would lean into it.”

Katulis added: “I would advise either President Trump or Harris to work by, with and through all of these countries, from Saudi Arabia to Morocco and others, those that have accords and those that want to. I would spend at least six months assembling everything that people have argued since the war started, and what they’d be willing to do, and what they’d be willing to invest, and present to Israel, the Israeli public and its politicians an offer — a state of Palestine that is going to be good for your security and will also insulate you from the threats presented by Iran.

“It is important to think practical, to think realistic, and realistic is that the next US president is not going to actually attend to a lot of these issues, so we’ve got to work with and through people diplomatically.

“Use that new energy in the UAE and Saudi Arabia and other places, use the resources they have to actually do some good, and that good should have as its endpoint making an offer to say, this is a state of Palestine which will coexist with Israel.”

That new energy, said Khurma, was evident at the 33rd summit of the Arab League in Bahrain in May.

In the joint declaration issued afterward, the league reiterated “our unwavering position and our call for a just and comprehensive peaceful settlement of the question of Palestine, as well as our support for the call of His Excellency President Mahmoud Abbas, President of the State of Palestine, for an international peace conference to be convened and for irreversible steps to be taken to implement the two-state solution, in accordance with the Arab Peace Initiative and authoritative international resolutions, with a view to establishing an independent and sovereign Palestinian State, with East Jerusalem as its capital, on the basis of the lines of 4 June 1967.”

For whoever becomes the next president of the US, this initiative could be the vital missing component needed to jumpstart the Abraham Accords.

“When they met in Bahrain, the Arab countries revived the Arab Peace Initiative and took it a step further,” Khurma said.

“In the US media, there was very little coverage, but the declaration is very important because it shows that even in the midst of this horrific war, these countries are still willing to revive the Arab Peace Initiative, a peace plan with Israel, and to extend a hand to normalize with Israel, but of course, without leaving the Palestinians behind.”
 

 


Trains collide in Egypt’s Nile Delta leaving 3 dead, 29 injured

Trains collide in Egypt’s Nile Delta leaving 3 dead, 29 injured
Updated 14 September 2024
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Trains collide in Egypt’s Nile Delta leaving 3 dead, 29 injured

Trains collide in Egypt’s Nile Delta leaving 3 dead, 29 injured
  • The crash happened in the city of Zagazig, the capital of Sharqiya province, the country’s railway authority said in a statement

CAIRO: Two passenger trains collided in Egypt’s Nile Delta on Saturday, killing at least three people, two of them children, authorities said.
The crash happened in the city of Zagazig, the capital of Sharqiya province, the country’s railway authority said in a statement. Egypt’s Health Ministry said the collision injured at least 40 others.
Train derailments and crashes are common in Egypt, where an aging railway system has also been plagued by mismanagement. In recent years, the government announced initiatives to improve its railways.
In 2018, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said some 250 billion Egyptian pounds, or $8.13 billion, would be needed to properly overhaul the North African country’s neglected rail network.
Video from the site of the crash showed a train car crumpled by the impact, surrounded by crowds. Men tried to lift the injured through the windows of a passenger car.
Last month, a train crashed into a truck crossing the train tracks in the Mediterranean province of Alexandria, killing two people.