Sovereign investors in Middle East exploring emerging markets as geopolitical tensions rise, study says

Sovereign investors in Middle East exploring emerging markets as geopolitical tensions rise, study says
Wealth funds are looking to reshape their portfolios, according to the report. Shutterstock
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Updated 22 July 2024
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Sovereign investors in Middle East exploring emerging markets as geopolitical tensions rise, study says

Sovereign investors in Middle East exploring emerging markets as geopolitical tensions rise, study says
  • Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has already expressed its appetite in emerging nations like India
  • Sovereign investors in the Middle East opined geopolitical tension as the most serious risk to economic growth

RIYADH: Middle Eastern sovereign investors are following their global counterparts by prioritizing India and other emerging markets amid concerns over geopolitical tensions, an analysis said. 

In its latest report, Invesco, a US-based investment management firm, said that 88 percent of global wealth funds, including 100 percent of those in the Middle East region, consider the south Asian country the most attractive destination for investments among emerging economies.

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has already expressed its appetite in emerging nations like India. In September 2023, the Kingdom’s Investment Minister Khalid Al-Falih expressed the possibility of establishing a sovereign wealth fund office in the Asian country, as well as investing in Indian start-ups that cater to the Saudi markets via venture capital funds.

Commenting on her firm’s report, Josette Rizk, head of Middle East and Africa at Invesco, said: “Amid an unpredictable macro environment, sovereign investors are recalibrating their portfolios, pivoting toward equities, private credit, and hedge funds.”

She added: “Emerging markets are gaining traction, with funds adopting a selective approach.” 

According to the report, wealth funds are looking to reshape their portfolios to reflect the new macro environment, with 27 percent and 50 percent in the Middle East planning to increase allocations to infrastructure over the next year. 




The city skyline is seen beside a construction site of a coastal road project near Hajji Ali mosque in Mumbai on May 31, 2023. (AFP)

Invesco’s findings are based on the views of 140 chief investment officers, heads of asset classes, and senior portfolio strategists at 83 sovereign wealth funds and 57 central banks, who together manage $22 trillion in assets. 

Geopolitical tensions posing risks to economic growth

The analysis revealed that 95 percent of sovereign investors in the Middle East region opined geopolitical tension as the most serious risk to economic growth over the next 12 months. 

According to the report, inflation also remains a significant concern for these investors, with 43 percent of sovereign wealth funds and central banks globally and 68 percent in the Middle East expecting it to settle above apex banks’ targets. 

The study further noted that almost three-quarters of investors — 71 percent worldwide and 70 percent in the Middle East — anticipate interest rates and bond yields to remain in the mid-single digits over the long term, indicating a shift in expectations.

The rise of private credit

The report noted that private credit is also gaining popularity, with only 35 percent of sovereign wealth funds globally and 22 percent in the Middle East currently having no investments in private credit. 

Invesco opined that the appeal of private credit is driven by diversification from traditional fixed income and its relative value compared to conventional debts. 

The study said that the US is the most attractive market for private credit, with the country being rated the favorite option by 67 percent of the wealth funds globally and 71 percent in the Middle East. 

However, Invesco said there is a growing interest in emerging market private debt, as more than half of the respondents, including 58 percent in the Middle East region, believe there are unexplored opportunities in these countries. 

“Private credit is increasingly attractive to sovereign wealth funds, with many investing through funds and direct deals. Sovereign wealth funds in the region developed markets but are also exploring emerging markets while balancing defensive and opportunistic strategies to navigate the competitive landscape,” added Rizk. 




The Charging Bull, the famous bull of Wall Street, is pictured early in the morning in the Finacial District, Lower Manhattan, New York City. (Shutterstock)

The implementation of AI

Invesco also noted that more than one-third of sovereign investors globally are using advanced technologies like artificial intelligence in their investment process. 

The vast majority — 93 percent worldwide and 100 percent in the Middle East — believe AI will eventually play a role in their organization. 

The rise of generative AI has prompted 66 percent of sovereign wealth funds and central banks globally and 83 percent in the Middle East to reevaluate their current AI strategies and explore new applications for this technology. 

The survey also found that half of these investors globally and 80 percent in the Middle East are confident that the implementation of AI can enhance returns. 

“Sovereign investors in the region are increasingly adopting AI in their investment processes, recognizing its potential to become an essential tool. While challenges exist, funds are investing in training and partnerships to overcome barriers,” said Rizk. 

Growing importance of ESG

Invesco said that investors who took part in the study consider greenwashing to be one of the biggest challenges, as cited by 84 percent of the wealth funds worldwide and 94 percent in the Middle East. 

The report also found that sovereign investors are moving toward greater accountability, with 50 percent of accounts in the Middle East modeling and tracking their portfolios to combat climate change. 

“ESG (environmental, social, and governance) adoption continues to rise among the Middle East’s central banks, while SWFs refine their approach as the market matures,” said Rizk. 

She added: “Investors are increasingly recognizing climate risk as a material factor and aligning portfolios with global climate goals. Engagement with and allocation to renewables are preferred over complete divestment to drive the energy transition.” 




A photograph taken on April 30, 2024 shows gold bracelets displayed in a shop window on Green Street, east London. (AFP)

The allure of gold

The analysis revealed that gold is gaining appeal. In the last three years, 70 percent of the central banks in the Middle East region have increased allocations for the yellow metal. 

According to the report, central banks are bolstering and diversifying reserves, with 53 percent worldwide planning an increase in the size of their holdings and 52 percent planning additional diversification. 

Rising US debt levels have a negative impact on the global role of the dollar, according to 64 percent of respondents globally and 33 percent in the Middle East.

Some 18 percent of central banks, including 20 percent in the Middle East, believe that the position of the US dollar as the world reserve currency will be weaker within five years. 

“Amid global uncertainties, central banks in the region are strengthening and diversifying reserves. Gold’s appeal is growing due to concerns about rising US debt levels. Allocations to emerging markets are increasing as central banks seek to enhance returns and mitigate risks,” said Rizk. 

In June, a survey conducted by the World Gold Council noted that more central banks plan to increase their gold reserves within a year despite the ongoing macroeconomic and political uncertainties and rising gold prices.

According to WGC, 29 percent of the central banks globally expect to boost their gold reserves in the next twelve months, the highest level since the survey began in 2018. 

“Despite record demand from the official sector in the past two years and rising gold prices, many reserve managers remain enthusiastic about the yellow metal,” said Shaokai Fan, head of Central Banks at the World Gold Council, at that time. 


Pakistan central bank cuts key rate by 250 bps to 15%

Pakistan central bank cuts key rate by 250 bps to 15%
Updated 27 sec ago
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Pakistan central bank cuts key rate by 250 bps to 15%

Pakistan central bank cuts key rate by 250 bps to 15%
  • Monday’s move follows cuts of 150 bps in June, 100 in July and 200 in September
  • It takes the total policy rate cuts in the country to 700 bps in under five months

KARACHI: Pakistan’s central bank cut its key policy rate by 250 basis points to 15 percent on Monday, it said in a statement, for a fourth straight reduction since June, as the country keeps up efforts to revive a sluggish economy with inflation easing.
Most respondents in a Reuters poll last week expected a cut of 200 bps after inflation moved down sharply from a multi-decade high of nearly 40 percent in May 2023, saying reductions were needed to bolster growth.
Average consumer price index inflation in the South Asian country is 8.7 percent in the current financial year, which started in July, the statistics bureau says. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects inflation to average 9.5 percent for the year ending June.
Monday’s move follows cuts of 150 bps in June, 100 bps in July, and 200 in September that have taken the rate from an all-time high of 22 percent, set in June 2023 and left unchanged for a year. It takes the total cuts to 700 bps in under five months.
October inflation came in at 7.2 percent, slightly above the government’s expectation of 6 percent to 7 percent. The finance ministry expects inflation to slow further to 5.5 percent to 6.5 percent in November.
However, inflation could pick up again in 2025, driven by electricity and gas price increases after a new $7-billion IMF bailout, and the potential impact of taxes on the retail, wholesale and the farm sector announced in the June budget to take effect in January 2025, some analysts say.
 


Mobily partners with Telecom Egypt to launch 1st Saudi submarine cable

Mobily partners with Telecom Egypt to launch 1st Saudi submarine cable
Updated 04 November 2024
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Mobily partners with Telecom Egypt to launch 1st Saudi submarine cable

Mobily partners with Telecom Egypt to launch 1st Saudi submarine cable

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s telecommunications company, Mobily, has entered into a cooperation agreement with Telecom Egypt to establish the first Saudi-owned subsea cable connecting the two nations across the Red Sea.

The agreement includes the installation of the subsea cable, which will be fully owned by Mobily, with landing stations in Duba, Saudi Arabia, and Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, as stated by Mobily on X.

This cable will serve as a link between Asia and Africa, creating a route to Europe by connecting Saudi Arabia with Egypt.

It will enhance connectivity options for Gulf countries and neighboring regions through Mobily’s digital network, integrating with Egyptian landing stations in the Mediterranean.

Additionally, it will provide new routes to improve service reliability and meet customer needs within the Kingdom and beyond.

“The new cable represents a significant milestone in strengthening Saudi Arabia's position as a leading international hub for telecommunications services and data traffic, in alignment with the goals of Saudi Vision 2030,” said Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Badran, CEO of Mobily.

He added: “The signing of the agreement underscores our commitment to expanding our infrastructure and enhancing our capabilities both regionally and internationally, as Mobily’s new cable will connect Saudi Arabia to Egypt and improve communication flexibility between the Middle East and Europe.”

This agreement aligns with Mobily’s strategy to bolster its infrastructure and network capabilities. Building on its previous investments in subsea cables that connect global regions, the new cable will expand Mobily’s international reach and capacity.

“Complementing the newly established landing station in Sharm El-Sheikh, we are developing new crossing routes to connect Sharm El-Sheikh to the Mediterranean Sea,” stated Mohamed Nasr, managing director and CEO of Telecom Egypt.

He further said: “We are confident that this commercial agreement will be a valuable addition to our ongoing efforts to support this critical sector and cater to the rising demand for capacity and connectivity.”

By increasing capacity and expanding its global reach through new collaborations, Mobily is dedicated to enhancing its subsea network infrastructure both domestically and internationally.

“I am pleased with our cooperation with Telecom Egypt, which will enable us to offer the best services to all our customers around the world,” Al-Badran noted.

“Telecom Egypt is dedicated to advancing the international telecommunications infrastructure by enhancing the geographical diversity of the global subsea cable networks,” Nasr added.

This commitment aims to provide cutting-edge digital solutions to customers and support the sustainable growth of the Kingdom’s ICT sector through advanced infrastructure.


Saudi Arabia, Turkiye sign 10 cooperation agreements at business forum in Istanbul 

Saudi Arabia, Turkiye sign 10 cooperation agreements at business forum in Istanbul 
Updated 57 min 48 sec ago
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Saudi Arabia, Turkiye sign 10 cooperation agreements at business forum in Istanbul 

Saudi Arabia, Turkiye sign 10 cooperation agreements at business forum in Istanbul 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia and Turkiye deepened commercial ties by signing 10 cooperation agreements at an event in Istanbul, advancing strategic initiatives across diverse sectors.   

The Saudi-Turkish Business Forum spotlighted opportunities for joint ventures in agriculture, food, and tourism, along with potential collaborations in advanced manufacturing, construction, and infrastructure. Other key areas included technology, innovation, and logistics, the Saudi Press Agency reported.   

Organized by the Federation of Saudi Chambers and the Foreign Economic Relations Board of Turkiye, the event attracted over 450 companies and several government agencies from both nations.   

This comes as the trade volume between Riyadh and Ankara reached SR25.4 billion ($6.76 billion) in 2023, marking a 15.5 percent growth. Saudi exports to Turkiye represented SR15.6 billion, while Turkish imports to the Kingdom accounted for SR9.8 billion.    

Turkish Minister of Trade Omer Bolat said: “Turkiye aims to raise the volume of its bilateral trade with the Kingdom to $30 billion in the medium and long term, and diversify its fields, especially tourism, health, infrastructure, information technology, and the defense industry.”    

The minister praised the strong bilateral relationship, the quality of Turkish products, and the success of the country’s services sector, encouraging mutual benefit from these strengths. He also highlighted the Kingdom’s transformations across sectors such as mining, health, technology, and communications.   

“Today in Istanbul, I met with my brother, His Excellency the Turkish Minister of Trade Omer Bolat, and we discussed strengthening relations and expanding trade partnerships for the good and interest of the two brotherly countries,” Saudi Minister of Commerce Majid Al-Qasabi said in a post on X.     

Fayez Al-Shaili, vice president of the Federation of Saudi Chambers, noted a qualitative shift in Saudi-Turkish relations. He stated that the establishment of the business council has played a critical role in enhancing economic relations, positioning the Kingdom among Turkiye’s eight largest trading partners. 

The number of Saudi companies operating in Turkiye has surged from 11 in 2011 to over 1,400 in 2023, with total investments reaching SR18 billion, according to Al-Shaili. 

Sami Al-Osaimi, chairman of the Saudi-Turkish Business Council, highlighted that around 390 Turkish companies are now investing in the Saudi market, with the council targeting a trade exchange volume of $10 billion in the short term. 

The forum showcased investment prospects for Turkish investors within the framework of Saudi Vision 2030, particularly in tourism infrastructure, industrial zones, healthcare, digital services, and energy. 

Additionally, the business council met on the sidelines of the forum to discuss plans, initiatives, and the government support needed to address challenges faced by investors from both countries.


SABIC sees turnaround as it reports $266.2bn Q3 profit

SABIC sees turnaround as it reports $266.2bn Q3 profit
Updated 04 November 2024
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SABIC sees turnaround as it reports $266.2bn Q3 profit

SABIC sees turnaround as it reports $266.2bn Q3 profit

RIYADH: Petrochemical firm Saudi Basic Industries Corp. reported a net profit of SR1 billion ($266.27 million) for the third quarter of 2024, a marked improvement from a loss of SR2.87 billion in the same period last year.

SABIC attributed its positive results to various factors, including higher income from operations by SR797 million, bolstered by a heightened gross profit margin offset by raised operating costs.

The company’s revenue rose 3 percent year on year to SR36.88 billion, primarily driven by increased average selling prices despite a slight decrease in sales volume.

The firm also benefited from gains related to divesting its Functional Forms business and favorable currency exchange fluctuations.

According to the London Stock Exchange Group, the third quarter profit missed analyst forecasts of SR1.6 billion, as reported by Reuters.

A notable factor was SABIC’s reduced losses from discontinued operations, amounting to SR3.3 billion, mainly stemming from a fair value reassessment of the Saudi Iron and Steel Co., known as Hadeed.

The reclassification of Hadeed as a discontinued operation will continue until the completion of its sale, which was previously announced by the company.

When compared with the second quarter of 2024, however, net profit fell from SR2.18 billion due to a lower gross profit of SR194 million, attributed to softer selling prices and higher feedstock costs.

The quarter also saw a rise in operating expenses by SR223 million and a decline in profits from associates and joint ventures by SR313 million, following a fair value assessment related to the firm’s agreement to sell its shares in Alba, announced in September.

Despite these challenges, SABIC’s total revenue for the first nine months of 2024 reached SR105.28 billion, with a net profit of SR3.43 billion, a sharp turnaround from the SR1.04 billion loss in the same period last year.

This was aided by reduced discontinued operation losses and lower Zakat expenses by SR1.05 billion, stemming from regulatory-driven provision adjustments in June.

In September, Saudi Arabia’s Mining Co. completed the acquisition of SABIC’s 20.62 percent shareholding in Aluminium Bahrain, also known as Alba, marking a significant milestone in its strategy for regional growth.

According to a press statement, the transaction valued between SR3.62 billion ($960 million) and SR3.97 billion.


Saudi Vision 2030 to catalyze banking sector growth: Moody’s

Saudi Vision 2030 to catalyze banking sector growth: Moody’s
Updated 04 November 2024
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Saudi Vision 2030 to catalyze banking sector growth: Moody’s

Saudi Vision 2030 to catalyze banking sector growth: Moody’s
  • Rating agency said development of planned mega projects in Saudi Arabia will play important role in generating huge business and lending opportunities for banks
  • Kingdom’s housing program has been a driver of credit growth for the banks over the last five years

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 program to diversify the economy could accelerate the country’s banking sector development in the coming years, according to an analysis by Moody’s. 

In its latest report, the US-based credit rating agency said the development of planned mega projects in Saudi Arabia will play an important role in generating huge business and lending opportunities for banks. The infrastructure required to host major events like the Asia Cup in 2027, the Asian Winter Games in 2029, Expo 2030, and the FIFA World Cup in 2034 is expected to support this growth further.

Vision 2030 aims to reduce the Kingdom’s decades-long dependence on crude revenues and steadily bolster its presence in other sectors like tourism, technology, and real estate. 

“Planned mega projects to diversify the economy include the tourism, real estate, and infrastructure sectors, and the government provides the country’s banks the opportunity to help fund them,” said Abdulla Al-Hammadi, assistant vice president and analyst at Moody’s Ratings. “One part of Saudi Vision 2030 is a plan to raise home ownership to 70 percent by 2030 from 47 percent in 2016.”

The report said the Kingdom’s housing program has been a driver of credit growth for the banks over the last five years, with household mortgages reaching SR607 billion ($161.67 billion) at the end of 2023, up from SR110 billion in 2016. They now comprise around 24 percent of total banking sector loans.

“Given these mortgages were secured at a fixed rate during a time of low interest rates and that tenures are often for 25 to 30 years, this could place some pressure on margins in the sector. We believe that larger banks will be hit hardest due to their dominant position in the Saudi mortgage market,” said Al-Hammadi. 

If deposit development continues to lag loan growth, banks could also face growing funding shortages. Given the nature of mortgage fixed-rate loans, it may be challenging for financial institutions to offload them in the still-developing secondary markets.

The agency said Saudi banks could also face challenges in this run, which include insufficient deposit growth to meet the growing credit demand associated with Vision 2030 infrastructure and development projects. 

“A challenge is that availability of deposit growth is lagging behind accelerated credit growth at Saudi banks, while the home-ownership push has packed the banks with long-term, fixed-rate mortgages that tie up funds. 

“The banks will need to tap more confidence-sensitive market funding. This could entail foreign deposits, interbank syndications, and debt issuance, particularly Islamic bonds or sukuk,” said Al-Hammadi.

According to the report, reliance on short-term foreign funding will be riskier than long-term, such as senior unsecured debt and additional tier one, since long-term allocations will better match these banks’ long-term loans.