Will Turkiye and Syria succeed in turning the page on decade-long enmity?
Will Turkiye and Syria succeed in turning the page on decade-long enmity?/node/2553811/middle-east
Will Turkiye and Syria succeed in turning the page on decade-long enmity?
Protesters in opposition-held Idlib and the Aleppo countryside wave flags of the Syrian revolution and hold signs that read: ‘If you want to get closer to Assad, congratulations, the curse of history is upon you.’ (AN photo by Ahmed Akasha)
ATHENS/QAMISHLI, Syria: Since 2022, senior Syrian and Turkish officials have periodically met in Moscow for talks mediated by Russia. But those meetings have failed to result in a thaw in their icy relations.
It is a different matter now, however, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announcing his desire to restore formal ties with his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Assad.
He said earlier this month that he could invite Assad to Turkiye “at any moment,” to which the Syrian leader responded that any meeting would depend on the “content.”
Ankara and Damascus severed diplomatic ties in 2011 following the eruption of Syria’s civil war. Relations have remained hostile ever since, particularly as Turkiye continues to support armed groups resisting the Assad regime.
Since the civil war erupted in 2011, Turkiye has supported armed Syrian factions in their fight against the regime of President Bashar Assad. (AFP)
What, then, is the motivation for changing course now? And what are the likely consequences of Turkish-Syrian normalization of ties?
Syrian writer and political researcher Shoresh Darwish believes President Erdogan is pursuing normalization for two reasons. “The first is preparation for the possibility of the arrival of a new American administration led by Donald Trump, which means the possibility of a return to the policy of (a US) withdrawal from Syria,” he told Arab News.
“Erdogan will therefore need to cooperate with Assad and Russia.”
This photo released by the Syrian Arab News Agency shows President Bashar Assad (R) meeting with then Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Aleppo. (SANA/AFP)
The second reason, Darwish says, is Erdogan’s desire to get closer to Syrian regime ally Russia after Turkiye’s drift toward the US following the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Indeed, as a NATO member state, the conflict has complicated Turkiye’s normally balanced approach to its ties with Washington and Moscow.
“Ankara’s cooperation with Moscow is difficult in terms of the Ukrainian issue,” said Darwish. “As a result of the significant Western interference in this issue, their cooperation in Syria represents a meeting point through which Erdogan wants to highlight his friendship with Putin and Moscow’s interests in the Middle East.”
Those in Syria’s opposition-held northwest, which is backed by Turkiye, see an Ankara-Damascus rapprochement as a betrayal.
Protesters in opposition-held Idlib and the Aleppo countryside wave flags of the Syrian revolution and hold signs that read: ‘If you want to get closer to Assad, congratulations, the curse of history is upon you.’ (AN photo by Ahmed Akasha)
During one of several protests in Idlib since the beginning of July, demonstrators held signs in Arabic that read: “If you want to get closer to Assad, congratulations, the curse of history is upon you.”
Abdulkarim Omar, a political activist from Idlib, told Arab News: “Western Syria, Idlib, the Aleppo countryside, and all areas belonging to the opposition completely reject this behavior because it is only in the interest of the Syrian regime.
Turkish-backed Syrian rebel fighters take part in a military parade in the rebel-held northern part of the Aleppo province on July 2, 2022. (AFP)
“The Syrian people came out 13 years ago and rose up in their revolution demanding freedom, dignity, and the building of a civil, democratic state for all Syrians. This can only be achieved by overthrowing the tyrannical Syrian regime represented by Bashar Assad. They still cling to this principle and these slogans and cannot abandon them.”
Those living in areas controlled by the Kurdish-led and US-backed Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, or AANES, which holds much of Syria’s territory east of the Euphrates River, are also wary of the consequences of normalization.
Map of Syria showing zones of control by the different partipants in late 2020. Some cities then under the control of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces had been seized by Turkish forces. (AFP/File)
“There are fears among the population that reconciliation may be a prelude to punishing the Syrian Kurds for their political choices,” said Omar.
Incursions into Syria from 2016 to 2019 saw Turkiye take control of several cities, many of which were previously under the control of the AANES.
Turkiye’s justification for its 2018 and 2019 incursions and continued presence on Syrian territory was its aim to establish a “safe zone” between itself and the armed forces of the AANES — the Syrian Democratic Forces.
A member of the Syrian Kurdish Asayish security forces stands guard as mourners march during the funeral of two Kurdish women killed in a Turkish drone strike in Hasakah, northeastern Syria, on June 21, 2023. (AFP)
Turkiye views the SDF as a Syrian wing of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, a group that has been in conflict with the Turkish state since the 1980s.
“Naturally, the Syrian Kurds know that they will be part of any deal that Erdogan wants to conclude with Assad,” said Darwish. “This issue unnerves the Syrian Kurds, who see Turkiye as ready to do anything to harm them and their experience in self-administration.”
Darwish says the Syrian Kurds would accept reconciliation on three conditions. First they would want to see Turkiye remove its troops from Afrin and Ras Al-Ain. Second, an end to Turkish strikes against AANES areas. And third, a guarantee from the Assad regime “that the Syrian Kurds will enjoy their national, cultural, and administrative rights.”
In this photo taken on January 27, 2018, a Turkish military convoy drives through the Oncupinar border crossing as troops enter Syria during a military campaign in the Kurdish-held Syrian enclave of Afrin. (AFP/File)
But just how likely is a rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus? Not very, according to conflict analyst and UNHRC delegate Thoreau Redcrow. “I find the prospects of an Erdogan and Assad detente very unlikely,” he told Arab News.
“Historically, Turkiye’s ideas of ‘normalization’ with Syria amount to a policy of one-way influence for Ankara’s benefit. In this arrangement, Turkiye continues to occupy Hatay (Liwa Iskenderun), which they seized from Syria in 1938, and make military incursion demands on their sovereignty, like with the Adana Agreement in 1998, but give nothing in return.”
Assad has made it clear in public statements that a meeting between him and Erdogan would only occur on the condition of a Turkish withdrawal from Syrian territory. Redcrow believes Turkiye has no intention of leaving.
“I cannot see Damascus being interested in being manipulated for a photo-op,” he said. “The Syrian government is far more prideful than some of the other regional actors who are happy to be one of Turkiye’s ‘neo-Ottoman vilayets.’”
Erdogan may be attempting to capitalize on the trend toward normalization among Arab countries, which began in earnest with Syria’s reinstatement into the Arab League last year. European states and the US, however, remain divided.
A parade by female staff of the internal security and police force of the US-backed AANES, which governs much of Syria’s territory east of the Euphrates River. (AN photo by Ali Ali)
“Whereas Germany, France, Italy, and the UK in particular are more focused on how Turkiye can control the gateway into Europe and act as a ‘continental bouncer’ for refugees from the Middle East and Western Asia, the US is more focused on denying Russia and Iran full access to all of Syria again for strategic reasons, like Mediterranean Sea access and the ‘Shiite land bridge’ from Tehran to Beirut,” said Redcrow.
“The current status quo is far more beneficial to Washington than any reconciliation would be, as it would also endanger the northeast portions of Syria, where the US military is embedded with their most reliable military partners against Daesh in the SDF. So, Turkiye would not be given any kind of green light to place American interests at risk.”
The US House of Representatives in February passed the Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act of 2023, which prohibits any normalization with Assad. In a post on the social media platform X on July 12, the bill’s author, Rep. Joe Wilson, voiced his disappointment with Erdogan’s calls for normalization, likening it to “normalizing with death itself.”
Troops from the Syrian Democratic Forces and the US-led anti-jihadist coalition, take part in heavy-weaponry military exercises in the countryside of Deir Ezzor in northeastern Syria, on March 25, 2022. ((AFP)
Though there may be little chance of reconciliation succeeding at this point, the approximately 3.18 million Syrian refugees living in Turkiye view even rumors of normalization with fear and dread.
“People are very afraid,” Amal Hayat, a Syrian mother of five living in southeastern Turkiye, told Arab News. “Since the rumors (of reconciliation) started, many people don’t even leave their homes. Even if they are beaten by their bosses at work, they are afraid to say anything for fear of being deported.”
Turkish authorities deported more than 57,000 Syrians in 2023, according to Human Rights Watch.
“A forced return would affect us a lot,” said Hayat. “For example, if a woman returns to Syria with her family, her husband may be arrested by the regime. Or if a man gets deported back to Syria and his wife and children stay in Turkiye, how will they manage? It’s difficult. Here, our kids can study. They have stability and safety.
A Syrian woman is seen at a refugee camp near the Syria-Turkish border. (AN photo by Ali Ali)
The fear of deportation has been compounded by waves of violence against Syrian refugees which swept Turkiye’s south in recent weeks. On June 30, residents of central Turkiye’s Kayseri province attacked Syrians and their property.
Anti-Syrian sentiment in Turkiye is partially due to economic issues, where Turks see underpaid or even unpaid Syrians as a threat to their prospects of employment.
“The Turks are very happy for us to return home,” said Hayat. “For them, it’s not soon enough. We are all living under a heightened level of stress. We are just praying that (Assad and Erdogan) don’t reconcile.”
Cancer-hit UK king hails doctors in Christmas speech
“We cannot help but think of those for whom the devastating effects of conflict in the Middle East … pose a daily threat to so many people’s lives,” king said
Updated 56 min 6 sec ago
AFP
LONDON: King Charles III thanked “selfless doctors and nurses” for supporting the royal family in his Christmas address, marking the end of a year during which he and Princess Catherine have battled cancer.
Speaking in a pre-recorded message from a former hospital chapel, the king paid tribute to medical staff, veterans and humanitarian workers, and touched upon topics ranging from global conflicts to the far-right riots in the UK this summer.
The monarch’s traditional Christmas message, the first in nearly two decades made outside a royal residence, was symbolically filmed in the ornate Fitzrovia Chapel in central London.
“I offer special heartfelt thanks to the selfless doctors and nurses who this year have supported me and other members of my family through the uncertainties and anxieties of illness, and have helped provide the strength, care and comfort we have needed,” Charles, 76, said.
“I am deeply grateful too to all those who have offered us their own kind words of sympathy and encouragement,” the king added.
His daughter-in-law Princess Catherine was also diagnosed with cancer just weeks after him, temporarily removing the two senior royals from frontline duties.
They have gradually resumed engagements, with Kate, as she is widely known, announcing she had completed chemotherapy in September. Charles is still undergoing regular treatment for cancer, expected to continue into 2025.
Charles, who became monarch in 2022 after the death of his mother Queen Elizabeth II, also hailed the country’s response to divisive far-right riots that took place across England in August and September following the fatal stabbing of three young girls.
“I felt a deep sense of pride here in the United Kingdom when in response to anger and lawlessness in several towns this summer, communities came together not to repeat these behaviors, but to repair,” Charles said.
Calling for peace, the king reflected on conflicts across the world in a year which also marked the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings.
“During previous (D-Day) commemorations, we were able to console ourselves with the thoughts that these tragic events seldom happen in the modern era,” said Charles.
“But on this Christmas Day, we cannot help but think of those for whom the devastating effects of conflict in the Middle East, in Central Europe, in Africa and elsewhere, pose a daily threat to so many people’s lives and livelihoods.”
Charles praised the “diversity of culture, ethnicity and faith” in Commonwealth countries, after attending a summit in Samoa in October.
“Across the Commonwealth, we are held together by a willingness to listen to each other,” Charles added, as the bloc increasingly confronts the legacy of slavery and colonialism under the former empire.
The eco-conscious king notably did not address climate change or environmental concerns this time around, in a shift from last year’s address.
However, in the backdrop of the broadcast was a live Christmas tree that was later donated and replanted, a tradition begun by Charles in 2023.
The king ended the speech with a call for “peace on earth.”
“And so it is with this in mind that I wish you and all those you love a most joyful and peaceful Christmas,” he concluded.
In keeping with tradition, Charles and his wife Queen Camilla, 77, were joined by other senior royals for their annual festive gathering at the family’s Sandringham estate in eastern England.
Heir-to-the-throne Prince William and Kate along with their three children were part of the royal entourage attending a morning church service followed by Christmas lunch.
Disgraced Prince Andrew, however, was missing from the festivities after revelations of his dealings with a suspected Chinese spy emerged just weeks earlier.
The king’s younger brother was present at last year’s gathering despite being shunned from royal life over his ties to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
Also missing were Prince Harry and his wife Meghan — who quit royal life in 2020 and moved to California — making it the sixth royal Christmas they have missed in a row.
Hamas says ‘new’ Israeli conditions delaying agreement on Gaza ceasefire
“Occupation has set new conditions concerning withdrawal (of troops), the ceasefire, prisoners, and the return of displaced people,” Hamas said
Updated 25 December 2024
AFP
JERUSALEM: Hamas accused Israel on Wednesday of imposing “new conditions” that it said were delaying a ceasefire agreement in the war in Gaza, though it acknowledged negotiations were still ongoing.
Israel has made no public statement about any new conditions in its efforts to secure the release of hostages seized on October 7, 2023.
Indirect talks between Israel and Hamas, mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the United States, have taken place in Doha in recent days, rekindling hope for a truce deal that has proven elusive.
“The ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations are continuing in Doha under the mediation of Qatar and Egypt in a serious manner... but the occupation has set new conditions concerning withdrawal (of troops), the ceasefire, prisoners, and the return of displaced people, which has delayed reaching an agreement,” the Palestinian militant group said in a statement.
Hamas did not elaborate on the conditions imposed by Israel.
On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told parliament that there was “some progress” in the talks, and on Tuesday his office said Israeli representatives had returned from Qatar after “significant negotiations.”
Last week, Hamas and two other Palestinian militant groups — Islamic Jihad and the leftist Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine — said in a rare joint statement that a ceasefire agreement was “closer than ever,” provided Israel did not impose new conditions.
Efforts to strike a truce and hostage release deal have repeatedly failed over key stumbling blocks.
Despite numerous rounds of indirect talks, Israel and Hamas have agreed just one truce, which lasted for a week at the end of 2023.
Negotiations have faced multiple challenges since then, with the primary point of disagreement being the establishment of a lasting ceasefire in Gaza.
Another unresolved issue is the governance of post-war Gaza.
It remains a highly contentious issue, including within the Palestinian leadership.
Israel has said repeatedly that it will not allow Hamas to run the territory ever again.
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal last week, Netanyahu said: “I’m not going to agree to end the war before we remove Hamas.”
He added Israel is “not going to leave them in power in Gaza, 30 miles from Tel Aviv. It’s not going to happen.”
Netanyahu has also repeatedly stated that he does not want to withdraw Israeli troops from the Philadelphi Corridor, a strip of land cleared and controlled by Israel along Gaza’s border with Egypt.
The war in Gaza was sparked by Hamas’s unprecedented October 7 attack on Israel, during which militants seized 251 hostages.
Ninety-six of them are still being held in Gaza, including 34 the army says are dead.
The attack resulted in 1,208 deaths, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.
Israel’s retaliatory campaign has killed at least 45,361 people in Gaza, a majority of them civilians, according to figures from the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry that the UN considers reliable.
Syria authorities say torched 1 million captagon pills
Captagon is a banned amphetamine-like stimulant that became Syria’s largest export during the country’s more than 13-year civil war
Stimulant has flooded the black market across the region in recent years
Updated 25 December 2024
AFP
DAMASCUS: Syria’s new authorities torched a large stockpile of drugs on Wednesday, two security officials told AFP, including one million pills of captagon, whose industrial-scale production flourished under ousted president Bashar Assad.
Captagon is a banned amphetamine-like stimulant that became Syria’s largest export during the country’s more than 13-year civil war, effectively turning it into a narco state under Assad.
“We found a large quantity of captagon, around one million pills,” said a balaclava-wearing member of the security forces, who asked to be identified only by his first name, Osama, and whose khaki uniform bore a “public security” patch.
An AFP journalist saw forces pour fuel over and set fire to a cache of cannabis, the painkiller tramadol, and around 50 bags of pink and yellow captagon pills in a security compound formerly belonging to Assad’s forces in the capital’s Kafr Sousa district.
Captagon has flooded the black market across the region in recent years.
“The security forces of the new government discovered a drug warehouse as they were inspecting the security quarter,” said another member of the security forces, who identified himself as Hamza.
Authorities destroyed the stocks of alcohol, cannabis, captagon and hashish in order to “protect Syrian society” and “cut off smuggling routes used by Assad family businesses,” he added.
Syria’s new rulers have yet to spell out their policy on alcohol, which has long been widely available in the country.
Since a militant alliance toppled Assad on December 8 after a lightning offensive, Syria’s new authorities have said massive quantities of captagon have been found in former government sites around the country, including security branches.
AFP journalists in Syria have seen fighters from Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) set fire to what they said were stashes of captagon found at facilities once operated by Assad’s forces.
Security force member Hamza confirmed Wednesday that “this is not the first initiative of its kind — the security services, in a number of locations, have found other warehouses... and drug manufacturing sites and destroyed them in the appropriate manner.”
Maher Assad, a military commander and the brother of Bashar Assad, is widely accused of being the power behind the lucrative captagon trade.
Experts believe Syria’s former leader used the threat of drug-fueled unrest to put pressure on Arab governments.
Jordan in recent years has cracked down on the smuggling of weapons and drugs including captagon along its 375-kilometer (230-mile) border with Syria.
PM Starmer drawing on experience working on Northern Ireland peace process
G7 fund to unlock financing for reconciliation projects
Updated 25 December 2024
Arab News
LONDON: The UK will host an international summit early next year aimed at bringing long-term peace to Israel and Palestine, The Independent reported.
The event will launch the International Fund for Israeli-Palestinian Peace, which is backed by the Alliance for Middle East Peace, containing more than 160 organizations engaged in peacebuilding between Israelis and Palestinians.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who worked on the Northern Ireland peace process, ordered Foreign Secretary David Lammy to begin work on hosting the summit.
The fund being unlocked alongside the summit pools money from G7 countries to build “an environment conducive to peacemaking.” The US opened the fund with a $250 million donation in 2020.
As part of peacebuilding efforts, the fund supports projects “to help build the foundation for peaceful co-existence between Israelis and Palestinians and for a sustainable two-state solution.”
It also supports reconciliation between Arab and Jewish citizens of Israel, as well as the development of the Palestinian private sector in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Young Israelis and Palestinians will meet and work together during internships in G7 countries as part of the scheme.
Former Labour Shadow Middle East Minister Wayne David and ex-Conservative Middle East Minister Alistair Burt said the fund is vital in bringing an end to the conflict.
In a joint piece for The Independent, they said: “The prime minister’s pledge reflects growing global momentum to support peacebuilding efforts from the ground up, ensuring that the voices of those who have long worked for equality, security and dignity for all are not only heard, but are actively shaping the societal and political conditions that real conflict resolution will require.
“Starmer’s announcement that the foreign secretary will host an inaugural meeting in London to support peacebuilders is a vital first step … This meeting will help to solidify the UK’s role as a leader in shaping the future of the region.”
The fund is modeled on the International Fund for Ireland, which spurred peacebuilding efforts in the lead-up to the 1999 Good Friday Agreement. Starmer is drawing inspiration from his work in Northern Ireland to shape the scheme.
He served as human rights adviser to the Northern Ireland Policing Board from 2003-2007, monitoring the service’s compliance with human rights law introduced through the Good Friday Agreement.
David and Burt said the UK is “a natural convener” for the new scheme, adding: “That role is needed now more than ever.”
They said: “The British government is in a good position to do this for three reasons: Firstly, the very public reaching out to diplomatic partners, and joint ministerial visits, emphasises the government turning a page on its key relationships.
“Secondly, Britain retains a significant influence in the Middle East, often bridging across those who may have differences with each other. And, thirdly, there is the experience of Northern Ireland.
“Because of his personal and professional engagement with Northern Ireland, Keir Starmer is fully aware of the important role civil society has played in helping to lay the foundations for peace.”
Erdogan announces plans to open Turkish consulate in Aleppo
Erdogan also issued a stern warning to Kurdish militants in Syria
Updated 25 December 2024
Arab News
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Wednesday that Turkiye will soon open a consulate in Syria's Aleppo.
Erdogan also issued a stern warning to Kurdish militants in Syria, stating they must either "lay down their weapons or be buried in Syrian lands with their weapons."
The remarks underscore Turkiye's firm stance on combating Kurdish groups it views as a threat to its national security.
