Why Turkiye is overlooking the European Political Community
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The European Political Community, an initiative launched in 2022, held its fourth summit in the UK on Thursday, drawing leaders from about 45 European countries. For the first time, representatives from NATO, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and the Council of Europe were also present, highlighting the urgent need for unity in addressing conflicts and instability within and around Europe.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not attend the summit, which was held at Blenheim Palace and hosted by new Prime Minister Keir Starmer, due to his demanding travel schedule. Erdogan, who attended the inaugural summit in Prague in October 2022, also missed the two summits in 2023, which were intended to show solidarity against Russia. His absence in May last year was due to his country’s presidential elections, while in October it was due to illness.
In Prague, Erdogan clashed with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis during an end-of-summit dinner. The third summit in Granada last October took place amid tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces. Following Erdogan’s announcement of his absence, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev also declined to attend, citing an “anti-Azerbaijani” and “pro-Armenian” atmosphere in Europe. These high-profile absences significantly impacted the summit.
Established as a political response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the community, which is the brainchild of French President Emmanuel Macron, is a multilateral diplomatic forum aimed at promoting political dialogue and security cooperation in Europe. The first meeting achieved some practical results, in particular an EU-led civilian mission to Armenia and Azerbaijan to monitor the crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh, which later led to the creation of the EU Mission in Armenia. However, the political achievements were even more substantial: the inclusion of 47 European countries in the new structure, with the only exceptions being Russia and Belarus, sent a strong message of political unity.
The European Political Community was initiated to fill the political and institutional void at the heart of the existing European security architecture that was created by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It aimed to be a forum capable of gathering diverse actors that are eager to play a central role in the European strategic security discourse.
Turkiye is reluctant to be part of an initiative that does not yield concrete results for its relations with Brussels
Sinem Cengiz
However, the limitations of the initiative, both institutional and political, became more evident at the Granada summit, which sent ambiguous indications over its logic and objectives. The involvement of key external partners, such as Turkiye, was limited and discussions focused primarily on issues related to the EU’s interests and concerns, such as the Ukraine war and irregular migration. The lack of an institutional framework, absence of key leaders and the topics discussed brought to the surface the limitations of the community.
How should we read Turkiye’s absence from the latest summit and its perception of the initiative within the framework of Ankara-EU relations? The answer is threefold.
Firstly, established with a security-oriented aim, Turkiye is reluctant to be part of an initiative that does not yield concrete results for its relations with Brussels. Relations between Turkiye and the EU are complex and have been difficult for years, with structural problems persisting. The accession process continues formally, but the rhetoric and climate surrounding it continue to negatively affect relations.
Secondly, the European Political Community is openly against Russia, with which Turkiye maintains cordial relations. Ankara’s foreign policy remains a fundamental issue in EU-Turkiye relations. Its refusal to join the sanctions regime targeting Russia and its deepening economic and energy ties with the country amid the war in Ukraine are contentious points for the EU. Turkiye seeks strategic autonomy in its foreign policy-making toward Russia and resists EU pressure.
For Turkiye, the EU’s expectations are practically impossible to meet, as they would undermine the stability of its state system and require it to revise its policies toward the Mediterranean and Aegean seas, Russia and Syria. Turkiye’s absence from the community is a loss for EU countries concerned about Russian aggression, but it does not have the same significance for Ankara, as is evident from its approach to the initiative.
In the near term, tensions over at least three regions of overlapping interest will persist and are likely to increase
Sinem Cengiz
Thirdly, Turkiye has criticized the hypocritical stances of some EU states over the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. Turkiye expects EU states to take a firm stance against Israeli aggression and to consider the security of the Middle East to be as important as Europe’s security.
In the near term, tensions over at least three regions of overlapping interest — Russia, the South Caucasus and, in particular, the Middle East — will persist and are likely to increase. It remains unclear how the situation will develop and how the EU and Turkiye will respond, as the potential for both cooperation and rivalry remains high.
The Syrian crisis, which brought a significant refugee problem for the EU, shifted Turkish-EU relations to a security-based logic. The 2016 agreement on migration and the creation of the European Political Community show that their relations are evolving from political to more security-dominated cooperation, which benefits Brussels more than Ankara.
Beyond symbolic photos of the leaders and being a forum for informal crisis talks, the European Political Community faces significant challenges, complexities and skepticism as to what it aims for, given its lack of institutionalization. Turkiye’s absence from the last three summits also underscores the ongoing problems in EU-Turkiye relations, driven by Ankara’s desire for concrete benefits from its cooperation with the bloc, its strategic autonomy in terms of foreign policy-making and its criticism of EU stances on broader geopolitical issues, particularly the Israeli war in Gaza.
• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz
