Europe seeks elusive unity as its adversities pile up
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It would not be an exaggeration to suggest that last week’s NATO Summit in Washington showed that the 75-year-old alliance is at a perilous junction. Despite the pomp surrounding its meetings, the summit failed to ring fence support for Ukraine or show any indication that its leaders would be capable of facing up to Russia’s threat, which takes many shapes and forms and is not just a mere challenge at the alliance’s eastern border.
The European Political Community Summit, which is convening in the UK on Thursday, will have more to contend with, despite it being a relatively young grouping that was only formed in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. In a fragile and dangerous era, the leaders from mainly EU nations, along with other European nations aspiring to join the bloc, in addition to many outside it like the UK, will hope to strengthen their ties and visions to deal with the most urgent challenges.
The venue of Blenheim Palace, near Oxford, was the birthplace of Winston Churchill and was maybe chosen to inspire. But it will also remind everyone of the need for common resolve to deal with the adversities that the leaders of the liberal democratic world are today having to grapple with.
Criticism has often been leveled at the European Political Community for being merely a fig leaf to appease EU candidate nations as they go through the painfully slow accession process. But it also serves a unique function, allowing non-EU countries such as Ukraine, some of the Balkan states and Turkiye to engage in neutral, equal discussions with their EU counterparts in the hope that this level playing field is conducive to a more unified, cohesive continent.
Ukraine will no doubt dominate the discussions of the 40-plus heads of government, as the trajectory of the war has now changed and the initiative is increasingly in the hands of Vladimir Putin and his generals. Ukraine’s backers’ hesitance, due to domestic and geostrategic calculations, is emboldening Moscow, which believes its strategy of wearing down Ukraine and its Western allies is working.
Another pressing issue facing the gathering is the Gaza conflict, which has imposed itself for the past nine months. With no end in sight and fears piling up that it might still be raging come 2025 or even expanded, the leaders will need to discuss its ramifications. Peace plans keep being shot down by an intransigent Hamas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who though traditionally friendly with the West, is now increasingly at the mercy of his anti-ceasefire, anti-peace plan, far-right Israeli political partners.
The list of foreign policy challenges for those gathering in the UK is very long and contains a host of complex and intractable issues, such as the continued civil strife and wars in the Horn of Africa, Myanmar and Sudan. There is also the weaponized, state-induced migration toward Europe and the West and the deteriorating relationship between the Global South — or, as the Chinese and Russians like to call it, the “global majority” — and the West. The outgoing NATO secretary-general recently warned Western leaders of an “alliance of authoritarian powers” working more closely together and against Western democracies.
Leaders new and old will be seeking to see if Britain can be relied upon again after years of political chaos.
Mohamed Chebaro
However, these conflicts and discords are likely to be dominated by further uncertainty come Nov. 5, should Donald Trump get a second chance to sit in the White House.
Parallel to the geostrategic adversities, the leaders convening in the UK are increasingly under pressure at home, as sluggish economic growth for many, coupled with rising demands on the welfare state, are putting pressure on public purses throughout the continent. There is only a limited range of options and maneuvers available for states to meet the daunting challenges.
All that is throwing democratic processes into jeopardy, as electorates are driven further into the lap of the extreme and populist voices, as seen in France recently and in the European Parliament elections before that.
Playing the role of host of the summit, new UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his government will be in the spotlight too, as leaders new and old will be seeking to see if Britain can be relied upon again after years of political chaos that damaged its reputation.
The European Political Community aims to fill a void felt on the European level, as the tools of diplomacy and multilateralism have waned in an increasingly splintered world. The test for the fourth summit is whether it will offer tangible support for Ukraine and those Europeans feeling threatened by Russia.
Though the community remains a nonexecutive assembly to rally those who believe in freedom and democracy, one fears that it might just be a talking shop, unable to overcome the deficits in cooperation and policy coordination across Europe beyond the EU.
This dangerous era for Europe might need a Churchill-like leadership figure. Despite the war within its borders, growing and divisive migration challenges, a continent-wide cost-of-living crisis, higher-than-usual leadership turnover, electoral shocks and the rise of right-wing nationalist parties, the existing joint and individual state efforts in Europe are not measuring up. They need to induce the stability needed amid a failure of leadership and an increasingly impatient electorate, whose trust in the state and its institutions is dwindling.
This summit and those that are to follow are unlikely to dispel the questions that have and will continue to linger over the efficacy and usefulness of the European Political Community. Will the summit’s ambitions to protect democracy, deal with migration and restore energy security come to fruition or will the group be mired in bureaucracy, political grandstanding and division, especially at a time when domestic politics across Europe is defining and overshadowing states’ international commitments? The European Political Community has a mountain to climb in its efforts to build consensus across increasingly politically divergent nations. And, where such consensus is achieved, it risks being vague, since it has to accommodate a wide range of specific interests.
• Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. He is also a media consultant and trainer.
