What Modi-Putin summit means for China and US
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July is proving to be an eventful month globally, with concerns over American President Joe Biden’s candidacy, an assassination attempt on Republican candidate Donald Trump and last week’s much-talked-about visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Moscow to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin for the 22nd India-Russia annual summit.
This was Modi’s first visit to Russia since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022. The visit led to a renewed commitment to political, military, economic, cultural and energy cooperation. The countries set a target of $100 billion in trade by 2030 and Modi received the Order of St. Andrew — Russia’s highest civilian honor. These developments are notable but not unexpected.
India and Russia have shared strong relations since the former’s independence in 1947. As India’s independence coincided with the start of the Cold War between the US and the Russian Federation’s predecessor, the USSR, the South Asian giant led the move to be nonaligned in this great power competition. Its nonalignment, however, always had a slight tilt toward the USSR and India actively sought American support only briefly during its 1962 war with China.
India’s close ties with the USSR, and eventually Russia, revolved primarily around strong ties in the defense sector. Close to 70 percent of India’s military hardware comes from Russia, much of which is the latter’s arsenal from the bygone Soviet era. The two countries also cooperate on matters of energy, counterterrorism and, increasingly, outer space exploration.
The convivial exchange between the two leaders was equally the result of India’s historical warmth toward Russia and Modi’s style of personalized diplomacy. In Putin, Modi has found a friend who shares the skill of being a muscular leader with a penchant for maintaining strong visibility in the public eye. This has provided a fillip to bilateral relations since Modi’s ascent to power in 2014.
India’s neutral position under Modi’s leadership on the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the ongoing war has also helped. India has called for an end to hostilities and resumption of diplomatic dialogue without actively joining the West in criticizing Russia. It has also abstained from UN resolutions on the war in Ukraine. Moreover, India has made use of the significant drop in price of Russian oil to today become its largest purchaser.
Despite this closeness, India has never abandoned diplomatic relations with the West. Building on the nonalignment inherent in its foreign policy, New Delhi has built strong economic and political cooperation with the US and its Western allies, striving to foster any partnership that is in the best interests of India. India-US trade relations stand at nearly $200 billion, with American imports worth almost double its exports to India. US imports include pharmaceuticals, textiles, precious stones and agricultural products. With about 2 percent of the American population being of Indian origin, the two countries are also bound together by the diaspora. India’s increased proximity to Russia is, therefore, increasingly of concern to the US and its Western allies.
India will not take any diplomatic decision that may jeopardize its relations with the US in any significant manner.
Zaid M. Belbagi
Modi’s recent visit to Russia was undoubtedly part of an Indian effort to preserve ties with an old ally, but the relationship is increasingly changing. India is wary of Russia’s growing closeness with China under President Xi Jinping’s leadership. Moscow is certainly dependent on India for trade and, since 2022, for international legitimacy amid Western sanctions and hostility. However, its dependence on China is greater.
China and Russia have shared strong commercial, diplomatic and military relations in recent years and Moscow is today China’s largest oil supplier. Their cooperation has also been strengthened under the multilateral framework of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This is a matter of concern for India, whose own relations with Beijing have historically been tense and have deteriorated in recent years due to several border disputes.
In this light, Modi’s visit to Moscow aimed to be a reminder to Putin that India continues to be a time-tested ally of Russia. This is key to India’s efforts to reduce Russian dependence on China and secure Russian support during any hostilities between India and China.
The fact that the US keenly watched and expressed its concerns over the clear camaraderie between Modi and Putin illustrates India’s growing strategic significance for the West, with the latter believing that India’s diplomatic relations directly impact Western interests. Further, India’s location as a neighbor of China is strategically important for the US amid the atmosphere of a “great game” between Washington and Beijing. This location is integral to Western plans to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the strongest example of which is the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, which was announced last year at the G20 Summit in New Delhi, in addition to the White House’s Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment.
Given the role played by India in the West’s global ambitions, it is clear why the White House raised concerns over the recent India-Russia summit, while urging the former to use its relations with Moscow to end the war in Ukraine.
In reality, India will not take any diplomatic decision that may jeopardize its relations with the US in any significant manner. However, Modi’s continued strategic ambivalence toward Russia is an important reminder to the US that India, and the broader Global South, has come into its own in foreign policymaking. As analyst Chietigj Bajpaee highlights, India is drawing up a foreign policy that is “non-Western, but not explicitly anti-Western.”
Despite India’s commitment to maintaining relations with the US, it is nonetheless going to secure its partnership with Russia, as this is key to security in India’s immediate neighborhood.
• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the Gulf Cooperation Council region.
X: @Moulay_Zaid
