Lebanon should not count on Netanyahu’s ‘good’ intentions

Despite the bloody episode of the latest Israeli strike in Gaza aimed at eliminating Mohammed Deif, who is No. 2 in the chain of command in Hamas, there is still hope of a temporary truce between the Israeli army and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. This could begin with agreement on a first phase of prisoner and hostage exchanges between the two sides.
But on the front with Lebanon, the question arises: what about US-French efforts to put an end to the war of attrition that Hezbollah, the pro-Iranian militia, is waging against Israel from Lebanese territory?
It is a question that remains unanswered, especially since the proposals that US presidential envoy Amos Hochstein has been carrying for some time and distributing between Paris, Tel Aviv and Beirut have hit a brick wall, as the pro-Iranian party absolutely refuses to consider any proposal before a definitive ceasefire in Gaza.
As a result, the hopes of putting an end to this mini-war initiated by Hezbollah are fading. This is because what is being proposed in Gaza is a truce with no further obligations for Israel and with the absence of a definitive ceasefire, followed by a complete withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
This means that the US proposals, which were based on a series of earlier French and American proposals aimed at convincing Hezbollah to halt the military escalation in southern Lebanon, will remain mere words for the time being.
In practice, the proposals revolve around a return to what looks like compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, modified in terms of the extent of the Hezbollah militants’ withdrawal and the evacuation of the area between the border with Israel and the Litani River. In exchange, Israel undertakes to respect the ceasefire and halt its violations of Lebanese airspace. Finally, the two parties will enter into negotiations aimed at settling all disputes between Lebanon and Israel relating to the demarcation of the temporary Blue Line that was established in 2000.
However, since the possibility of a truce in the Gaza Strip does not mean the end of the war, it does not meet Hezbollah’s conditions. Does this mean that Hezbollah will respond to the truce in Gaza with a truce in Lebanon? If not, how could the Israeli side manage a truce with Lebanon? Moreover, would it be realistic to attempt to build a long-term sense of stability on this basis?
Some observers believe that Israel could play the diplomatic card and blame Hezbollah for a possible open war, accusing it of igniting the front. 

It is not certain that the mediators will succeed in imposing a truce in Gaza any time soon.

Ali Hamade

Let us not forget that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s recent statements, in which he separates the situation in Gaza from that in southern Lebanon, reflect a clear commitment to continuing the war against Hezbollah until one of the two following scenarios happens: One, the reality in southern Lebanon changes and Hezbollah is forced to return to Resolution 1701, withdrawing from the border. Or, two, Israel accepts the new reality of Hezbollah taking over southern Lebanon and thus putting an end to the implementation of Resolution 1701 by being deployed at zero distance from northern Israel.
In another scenario, the fighting stops at the end of the war in Gaza. The pro-Iranian party succeeds in burying Resolution 1701 and negotiating a new demarcation of the Blue Line under the weight of its bombardments. Unfortunately, this would mean the end of Resolution 1701, that the French and US idea of amending it had fallen through and that Iran had openly become a neighbor of Israel.
However, it is not certain that the mediators will succeed in imposing a truce in Gaza any time soon. It is very likely that, pending the US presidential election on Nov. 5 and following the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu is maneuvering to gain time against a US administration at half-mast.
Indeed, President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance and the growing calls within the Democratic camp for his withdrawal from the presidential race play in the favor of the Israeli prime minister’s plan to continue the war against Hamas for as long as it takes for its total annihilation.
July 24, the date of Netanyahu’s visit to Washington, during which he will deliver a speech to the US Congress, should also be remembered, as the Israeli PM will have no hesitation in embarking on a visit to the federal capital while it is overwhelmed by a major crisis with Biden and the progressive wing within the Democratic Party.
So, we do not think we can count on a truce in Gaza, still less on the intentions of Netanyahu and Gallant toward Hezbollah, which from the top of its tree stubbornly defies the principle of gravity.

• Ali Hamade is an editorial journalist at the Annahar newspaper in Lebanon.
X: @AliNahar