What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East

Special What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East
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With his fist raised in a salute of defiance, a wounded Trump entered the iconography of American history in Butler, Pennsylvania. (Evan Vucci/AP)
Special What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East
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Updated 15 July 2024
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What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East

What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East
  • Presumptive Republican presidential nominee survived assassination bid at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday
  • Analysts say the attack may generate sympathy and votes for Trump, put Democrats further at a disadvantage

LONDON/ATLANTA: Saudi Arabia led the Arab world’s condemnation on Sunday of the assassination attempt on the life of former US president and current presidential candidate Donald Trump, stressing its rejection of violence, sending condolences to the deceased, and wishing a speedy recovery for those injured.

The Kingdom affirmed its “complete solidarity with the US, the former US president and his family.”

The day before, the world was left in shock when Trump was shot during a campaign rally in Butler County, Pennsylvania.




Donald Trump is escorted by Secret Service agents away from the stage as his right ear bleeds after being hit by an assassin's bullet on Saturday in Butler, Pennsylvania. (AP)

The bullets wounded Trump in his right ear, killing a spectator and critically injuring two others. The former president was escorted off stage by a group of secret service agents while pumping his fist and shouting, “Fight! Fight!”

The shooter, who had positioned himself on a nearby rooftop, was reportedly killed by police snipers. But in that brief moment when he nearly assassinated the Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominee, Crooks succeeded in damaging the political future of Biden, placed the Democratic Party in a difficult dilemma, and possibly sowed the seeds of further political polarization.

World leaders immediately condemned the shooting. The leaders of dozens of countries and the UN denounced the assassination attempt and political violence overall.

Leaders from across the Arab world joined in these condemnations. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the “extremist and criminal act,” and Bahrain’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs labeled the attack as “a direct assault on democratic values.”

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi denounced the attack and hoped that the election campaigns would continue in a peaceful manner. Qatar’s foreign ministry also condemned the attack, stressing “the need to pursue dialogue and peaceful means and avoid political violence and hatred to overcome differences at all levels.”

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas also condemned the shooting in a message from Ramallah.

Arab Americans from the left and right of the political spectrum spoke out against the failed assassination attempt.

“There is a lot we don’t know. But what we do know is that violent rhetoric can give rise to violent behavior. We need to take action and that violence is never the way to resolve political differences,” Jim Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute in Washington, told Arab News earlier on Sunday.

Current US president Joe Biden, who is also Trump’s opponent in the upcoming elections, posted on the social media platform X: “There’s no place for this kind of violence in America. We must unite as one nation to condemn it.”




President Joe Biden speaks at the White House in Washington on July 14, 2024, to denounce the assassination attempt on his rival Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. (AP)

Multiple replies to Biden’s post accused him of stirring anti-Trump rhetoric, with many going so far as to blame him for the shooting.

Some are questioning how the shooter, whom the FBI have identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks of Pennsylvania, managed to carry out his attempt on Trump’s life in the presence of secret service agents and police snipers.

“There are serious questions that have to be answered on how the gunman was allowed an unobstructed line of shot, from a nearby rooftop, under 200 meters from the stage on which the former president was standing,” Oubai Shahbandar, a defense analyst and former Pentagon Middle East adviser, told Arab News from Washington, D.C.

Little is known about the shooter. State voter records show him as a registered Republican, though he had previously donated to a liberal political action committee as a teenager. Nothing is known about Crooks’ motives, and so far, law enforcement and Crooks’ own family have been silent on the subject.




Police snipers return fire after shots were fired while Donald Trump was speaking at a campaign event in Butler, Penssylvania, on July 13, 2024. (AP)

Regardless of the motivations behind the shooting, many political analysts now believe that the assassination attempt will likely bolster Trump’s chances of winning the upcoming election.

“The image of President Trump, wiping the blood streaking across his face away, while defiantly raising his fist in the air and yelling ‘fight! fight!’ and the crowd roaring back ‘USA!’, is nothing short of historic. This will no doubt resonate with voters who contrast it with Biden’s apparent lethargy,” Shahbandar said.

Biden’s chances were already dampened by the June 27 presidential debate, where he was perceived widely to have performed very poorly. Biden appeared to ramble and struggle to speak at certain points, failing to match Trump’s energy and focus. A New York Times/Siena College poll found that after the debate, Trump led Biden 49 to 41 percent among registered voters.




Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives for the campaign rally on Saturday in Butler, Pennsylvania. As he was speaking, an assassin started firing and hit Trump on the ear. (AP)

“The assassination attempt targeting President Trump in fact struck the political future and the candidacy of President Biden and his campaign. The Democrats will be in a very difficult position moving forward. President Trump will garner a lot of sympathy,” Firas Maksad, senior director for strategic outreach at the Middle East Institute, told Arab News from Washington, D.C.

“It will be very difficult for the Democrats to continue to rely on attacking President Trump personally in their campaign. I also think that President Biden is mortally wounded. They will either have to replace him. If they are unsuccessful in doing so, they are heading to almost certain political defeat in the polls in November.”

According to Zach D. Huff, a Middle East expert and Republican political consultant who assisted President Trump’s 2020 re-election effort in Nevada, “Joe Biden’s loss is a given.”

“Regional powers now have time to try to factor in the impact of President Trump’s nearly guaranteed win,” he told Arab News from Dubai.




In this photo taken on May 21, 2017, US President Donald Trump (C-L), Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud (C-R), and other officials pose for a group photo during the Arab Islamic American Summit in Riyadh. (AFP/File)

The impact of the assassination attempt may have ramifications far beyond Pennsylvania, or even the US.

Shahbandar, the defense analyst, said that “by all objective measures, the likelihood of a Trump return to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. is now incredibly high. And that will likely be met with wide support among senior leadership in the Middle East who are eager to engage a team they are well familiar with.”

Huff believes America’s rivals such as Iran and China will be “left guessing what Trump will do to repel their influence.”

“Hamas and Hezbollah could feel pressure to conclude their best possible deal while Biden is around, before Trump wins. They are unlikely to seek an escalation that could easily last into the next US administration,” he said.

As for Biden’s attempts to bring about a Saudi Arabia-Israel normalization, Huff said “the window has already closed, with no time left for the US Senate to ratify an agreement,” adding: “Saudi Arabia will probably find better terms under Trump and may feel less pressure to normalize ties with regional adversaries.”




This photo taken on Sept. 15, 2020 shows US President Donald Trump with Bahrain FM Abdullatif al-Zayani (left), Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, and UAE FM Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan during the signing of the Abraham Accords. (AFP)

The history of Trump’s approach to US relations Middle East countries is a checkered one, sometimes focusing on diplomacy and deals and, at other times, focusing on military force.

His first foreign trip in office in May 2017 was to Saudi Arabia, and he maintained warm relations with the Kingdom throughout his term.

In 2020, he facilitated the signing of the Abraham Accords, a series of bilateral agreements between Israel and the UAE and Israel and Bahrain. Morocco and Sudan followed suit the next year.

Trump faced criticism, however, for some of his Middle East policy decisions. In 2017 the then-president ordered a series of “precision” strikes on a Syrian airbase, drawing the ire of Russia and Iran. The decision was taken in retaliation for a chemical attack by the Syrian regime in which dozens of civilians were killed.




Children greet a US troop patrol in the Syrian town of al-Jawadiyah, in the northeastern Hasakeh province, near the border with Turkey, on Dec.17, 2020. (AFP)

Just two years later, in October 2019, Trump ordered the withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria, where they had been supporting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.

This decision was strongly condemned in a 354-60 vote in the US House of Representatives, as just days after the withdrawal, a Turkish incursion into the region led to the deaths of hundreds and displacement of 300,000 civilians.

Huff highlighted Trump’s 2024 policy platform, which calls for peace in the Middle East, support for Israel, and the rebuilding of “our alliance network in the region to ensure a future of peace, stability, and prosperity.”

“A key question is how far that alliance network will reach,” he said.




Kurdish fighters and veterans march on Oct.  8, 2019, in front of the UN office in the northern Kurdish Syrian city of Qamishli to protest against Turkish threats in the Kurdish region. (AFP)

“Will it include the Kurds, who hold the line against Iran, and who prevent a return of Daesh? Could it include Qatar and Turkey?”

Going forward, two US lawmakers intend to introduce bipartisan legislation providing President Biden, Trump and presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. with enhanced Security Service protection.

The new law could give Donald Trump, Joe Biden and presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr enhanced Secret Service protection. “Anything less would be a disservice to our democracy,” Congressmen Ritchie Torres and Mike Lawler said on Sunday.
 

 


Poland denies involvement in Nord Stream sabotage

Poland denies involvement in Nord Stream sabotage
Updated 3 sec ago
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Poland denies involvement in Nord Stream sabotage

Poland denies involvement in Nord Stream sabotage
“Poland did not take part in anything. It has to be said clearly that this is a lie,” the minister, Krzysztof Gawkowski, said
Gawkowski was speaking after former German intelligence chief August Hanning accused Poland of working with Ukraine on the sabotage

WARSAW: A Polish deputy prime minister on Friday denied his country’s involvement in the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea in September 2022.
“Poland did not take part in anything. It has to be said clearly that this is a lie,” the minister, Krzysztof Gawkowski, told TV channel Polsat News.
Gawkowski was speaking after former German intelligence chief August Hanning, who held the post between 1998 and 2005, accused Poland of working with Ukraine on the sabotage.
Kyiv has also strongly denied any role.
“It looks like it was a Ukrainian team that acted, according to the results of the investigation,” Hanning said in an interview with the Die Welt daily.
“It is quite obvious that Polish authorities were involved,” he said, calling for Germany to demand compensation from Kyiv and Warsaw.
Gawkowski firmly denied the accusation.
“I think this is Russian disinformation resonating through the words of German politicians,” he said.
“Either they are acting under the influence” of Moscow “or they know that this will lead to divisions between NATO member states,” he said.
Polish prosecutors on Wednesday told AFP they had received an arrest warrant issued by Berlin for a Ukrainian diver residing in Poland accused of involvement in the blasts.
But Warsaw said he left the country before he could be detained.
On Thursday, Ukraine said the accusation of its involvement was “absolute nonsense” after a detailed report in the Wall Street Journal.
Nord Stream’s twin gas pipelines, which ran from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea, came under intense scrutiny when Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
Several large gas leaks were discovered emanating from the pipelines in September 2022, with seismic institutes recording underwater explosions just before.

India’s Modi offers ‘support’ to Bangladesh’s Yunus

India’s Modi offers ‘support’ to Bangladesh’s Yunus
Updated 16 min 36 sec ago
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India’s Modi offers ‘support’ to Bangladesh’s Yunus

India’s Modi offers ‘support’ to Bangladesh’s Yunus
  • The comments were made following a phone call between Modi and Bangladesh’s Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus
  • Modi “reaffirmed India’s support for democratic, stable, peaceful and progressive Bangladesh,” the foreign ministry said

NEW DELHI: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi offered on Friday support to the interim leader of neighboring Bangladesh, who took power after New Delhi’s autocratic ally Sheikh Hasina was ousted.
The comments were made following a phone call between Modi and Bangladesh’s Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, who is heading the caretaker administration formed after ex-prime minister Hasina fled to India.
Hasina’s fall has raised concerns in New Delhi, which has key investments and close security ties with its eastern neighbor.
Modi “reaffirmed India’s support for democratic, stable, peaceful and progressive Bangladesh,” the foreign ministry said in a statement.
Hasina’s 15-year rule saw widespread human rights abuses, including the mass detention and extrajudicial killings of her political opponents.
But Modi’s Hindu-nationalist government preferred Hasina over her rivals from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, which it saw as closer to conservative Islamist groups.
In the immediate aftermath of Hasina’s fall, attacks on Hindus across Muslim-majority Bangladesh were reported.
The security situation has since far improved.
Hindus are the largest minority faith in Bangladesh and were considered a steadfast support base for Hasina’s party, the Awami League.
Modi “underlined the importance of ensuring the safety and protection of Hindus and all other minority communities in Bangladesh,” India’s foreign ministry said.
Bangladesh’s new interim government has already said it is committed to restore law and order and to protect all minorities.


Nigeria records 39 mpox cases this year

Nigeria records 39 mpox cases this year
Updated 26 min 21 sec ago
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Nigeria records 39 mpox cases this year

Nigeria records 39 mpox cases this year
  • The cases were across the country and have not been fatal
  • Nigeria saw its first mpox case in 1971 and has confirmed cases every year since 2017

LAGOS: Nigeria has recorded 39 cases of mpox since the beginning of the year, a health official said as concern mounts over the global spread of the disease.
The cases were across the country and have not been fatal, according to Jide Idris, the director-general of the Nigeria Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
“A total of 39 confirmed cases out of 788 suspected cases and no deaths have been recorded,” Idris told reporters on Thursday.
The World Health Organization (WHO) this week declared the rapid spread of a new more dangerous mpox strain, Clade 1b, a public health emergency of international concern — the highest alarm it can sound.
So far Nigeria has only seen cases of a milder strain, Odianosen Ehiakhamen, who heads Nigeria’s mpox technical working group, told a local broadcaster on Thursday.
Nigeria saw its first mpox case in 1971 and has confirmed cases every year since 2017, Ehiakhamen said.
The WHO declared the mpox surge in Africa a global public health emergency on Wednesday.
Sweden, the following day, announced the first case outside Africa of the more dangerous variant of mpox.
The UN health agency was concerned by the rise in cases and deaths in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where at least 548 people have died this year.
Previously unaffected countries such as Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda have reported outbreaks, according to the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Mpox is caused by a virus transmitted to humans by infected animals, but it can also be passed from human to human through close physical contact.
The disease causes fever, muscular aches and large boil-like skin lesions.
Nigerian Health Minister Muhammad Ali Pate said on Thursday that Nigeria now requires all travelers to complete an online health form before arrival to curb the spread.


EU’s top diplomat to propose sanctioning Israeli officials over ‘violent settlers’

EU’s top diplomat to propose sanctioning Israeli officials over ‘violent settlers’
Updated 22 min 7 sec ago
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EU’s top diplomat to propose sanctioning Israeli officials over ‘violent settlers’

EU’s top diplomat to propose sanctioning Israeli officials over ‘violent settlers’
  • Since the war on Gaza, hundreds of Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank by the Israeli army or settlers

BRUSSELS: The EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell said Friday he would propose sanctions against Israeli government “enablers” of Jewish settler violence, following a deadly attack on a village in the occupied West Bank.
“Day after day, in an almost total impunity, Israeli settlers fuel violence in the occupied West Bank, contributing to endanger any chance of peace,” Borrell posted on X.
“The Israeli government must stop these unacceptable actions immediately,” he wrote, vowing to “table a proposal for EU sanctions against violent settlers’ enablers, including some Israeli government’s members.”
Any such sanctions would require unanimous approval from the EU’s 27 member states, who are divided over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The White House has condemned as “unacceptable” Thursday’s attack on Jit, near Nablus, in which the Palestinian Authority said one Palestinian was killed and another wounded. Israeli President Isaac Herzog called it a “pogrom.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office meanwhile said he “takes seriously the riots” and pledged to catch and prosecute the perpetrators.
Violence in the West Bank, a Palestinian territory occupied by Israel since 1967 and separated from the Gaza Strip by Israeli territory, has surged since the Gaza war started on October 7.
Since then, hundreds of Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank by the Israeli army or settlers, according to an AFP count based on official Palestinian data.
Israeli settlement in the occupied West Bank — considered illegal under international law — has also hit new records.
Netanyahu, head of the conservative Likud party, has governed Israel since December 2022 with the support of far-right formations advocating more Israeli settlements in the West Bank or even outright annexation.


Europe must prepare for more mpox cases: EU health agency

Europe must prepare for more mpox cases: EU health agency
Updated 43 min ago
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Europe must prepare for more mpox cases: EU health agency

Europe must prepare for more mpox cases: EU health agency
  • ECDC said the overall risk for the general population in the EU and European Economic Area remained “low“
  • However, it “recommends that public health authorities in the EU/EEA maintain high levels of preparedness planning and awareness-raising activities

STOCKHOLM: The European Union health agency on Friday urged its member states to get ready for more cases of a deadly strain of mpox, a day after Sweden announced the first case outside Africa.
In a risk assessment, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said the overall risk for the general population in the EU and European Economic Area (EAA) — 30 countries altogether — remained “low.”
However, it “recommends that public health authorities in the EU/EEA maintain high levels of preparedness planning and awareness-raising activities to enable rapid detection and response.”
The Stockholm-based health body said more imported cases to Europe were “highly likely.”
“Due to the close links between Europe and Africa, we must be prepared for more imported clade I cases,” ECDC director Pamela Rendi-Wagner said in a statement.
The World Health Organization (WHO) this week declared the rapid spread of the new, more dangerous mpox strain, dubbed Clade 1b, a public health emergency of international concern — the highest alarm the UN agency can sound.
The virus has swept through the Democratic Republic of Congo, killing 548 people so far this year, the country’s government said.
Sweden and Pakistan have this week reported the first cases of the virus outside of Africa, with the WHO warning further imported cases of the new strain in Europe were likely.
In an updated risk assessment, the ECDC said that the “overall risk for the EU/EEA general population is currently assessed as low, based on a very low likelihood and a low impact.”
However, it added in the statement that the likelihood of infection for people from Europe “traveling to affected areas who have close contact with affected communities is high.”
“Additionally, there is a moderate risk for close contacts of possible or confirmed imported cases” to Europe.
The infectious disease is caused by a virus transmitted to humans by animals but can also spread human-to-human through close physical contact.
It causes fever, muscular aches and large boil-like skin lesions.