What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East

Special What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East
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With his fist raised in a salute of defiance, a wounded Trump entered the iconography of American history in Butler, Pennsylvania. (Evan Vucci/AP)
Special What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East
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Updated 15 July 2024
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What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East

What the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for US politics, foreign policy and the Middle East
  • Presumptive Republican presidential nominee survived assassination bid at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday
  • Analysts say the attack may generate sympathy and votes for Trump, put Democrats further at a disadvantage

LONDON/ATLANTA: Saudi Arabia led the Arab world’s condemnation on Sunday of the assassination attempt on the life of former US president and current presidential candidate Donald Trump, stressing its rejection of violence, sending condolences to the deceased, and wishing a speedy recovery for those injured.

The Kingdom affirmed its “complete solidarity with the US, the former US president and his family.”

The day before, the world was left in shock when Trump was shot during a campaign rally in Butler County, Pennsylvania.




Donald Trump is escorted by Secret Service agents away from the stage as his right ear bleeds after being hit by an assassin's bullet on Saturday in Butler, Pennsylvania. (AP)

The bullets wounded Trump in his right ear, killing a spectator and critically injuring two others. The former president was escorted off stage by a group of secret service agents while pumping his fist and shouting, “Fight! Fight!”

The shooter, who had positioned himself on a nearby rooftop, was reportedly killed by police snipers. But in that brief moment when he nearly assassinated the Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominee, Crooks succeeded in damaging the political future of Biden, placed the Democratic Party in a difficult dilemma, and possibly sowed the seeds of further political polarization.

World leaders immediately condemned the shooting. The leaders of dozens of countries and the UN denounced the assassination attempt and political violence overall.

Leaders from across the Arab world joined in these condemnations. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the “extremist and criminal act,” and Bahrain’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs labeled the attack as “a direct assault on democratic values.”

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi denounced the attack and hoped that the election campaigns would continue in a peaceful manner. Qatar’s foreign ministry also condemned the attack, stressing “the need to pursue dialogue and peaceful means and avoid political violence and hatred to overcome differences at all levels.”

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas also condemned the shooting in a message from Ramallah.

Arab Americans from the left and right of the political spectrum spoke out against the failed assassination attempt.

“There is a lot we don’t know. But what we do know is that violent rhetoric can give rise to violent behavior. We need to take action and that violence is never the way to resolve political differences,” Jim Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute in Washington, told Arab News earlier on Sunday.

Current US president Joe Biden, who is also Trump’s opponent in the upcoming elections, posted on the social media platform X: “There’s no place for this kind of violence in America. We must unite as one nation to condemn it.”




President Joe Biden speaks at the White House in Washington on July 14, 2024, to denounce the assassination attempt on his rival Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. (AP)

Multiple replies to Biden’s post accused him of stirring anti-Trump rhetoric, with many going so far as to blame him for the shooting.

Some are questioning how the shooter, whom the FBI have identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks of Pennsylvania, managed to carry out his attempt on Trump’s life in the presence of secret service agents and police snipers.

“There are serious questions that have to be answered on how the gunman was allowed an unobstructed line of shot, from a nearby rooftop, under 200 meters from the stage on which the former president was standing,” Oubai Shahbandar, a defense analyst and former Pentagon Middle East adviser, told Arab News from Washington, D.C.

Little is known about the shooter. State voter records show him as a registered Republican, though he had previously donated to a liberal political action committee as a teenager. Nothing is known about Crooks’ motives, and so far, law enforcement and Crooks’ own family have been silent on the subject.




Police snipers return fire after shots were fired while Donald Trump was speaking at a campaign event in Butler, Penssylvania, on July 13, 2024. (AP)

Regardless of the motivations behind the shooting, many political analysts now believe that the assassination attempt will likely bolster Trump’s chances of winning the upcoming election.

“The image of President Trump, wiping the blood streaking across his face away, while defiantly raising his fist in the air and yelling ‘fight! fight!’ and the crowd roaring back ‘USA!’, is nothing short of historic. This will no doubt resonate with voters who contrast it with Biden’s apparent lethargy,” Shahbandar said.

Biden’s chances were already dampened by the June 27 presidential debate, where he was perceived widely to have performed very poorly. Biden appeared to ramble and struggle to speak at certain points, failing to match Trump’s energy and focus. A New York Times/Siena College poll found that after the debate, Trump led Biden 49 to 41 percent among registered voters.




Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives for the campaign rally on Saturday in Butler, Pennsylvania. As he was speaking, an assassin started firing and hit Trump on the ear. (AP)

“The assassination attempt targeting President Trump in fact struck the political future and the candidacy of President Biden and his campaign. The Democrats will be in a very difficult position moving forward. President Trump will garner a lot of sympathy,” Firas Maksad, senior director for strategic outreach at the Middle East Institute, told Arab News from Washington, D.C.

“It will be very difficult for the Democrats to continue to rely on attacking President Trump personally in their campaign. I also think that President Biden is mortally wounded. They will either have to replace him. If they are unsuccessful in doing so, they are heading to almost certain political defeat in the polls in November.”

According to Zach D. Huff, a Middle East expert and Republican political consultant who assisted President Trump’s 2020 re-election effort in Nevada, “Joe Biden’s loss is a given.”

“Regional powers now have time to try to factor in the impact of President Trump’s nearly guaranteed win,” he told Arab News from Dubai.




In this photo taken on May 21, 2017, US President Donald Trump (C-L), Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud (C-R), and other officials pose for a group photo during the Arab Islamic American Summit in Riyadh. (AFP/File)

The impact of the assassination attempt may have ramifications far beyond Pennsylvania, or even the US.

Shahbandar, the defense analyst, said that “by all objective measures, the likelihood of a Trump return to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. is now incredibly high. And that will likely be met with wide support among senior leadership in the Middle East who are eager to engage a team they are well familiar with.”

Huff believes America’s rivals such as Iran and China will be “left guessing what Trump will do to repel their influence.”

“Hamas and Hezbollah could feel pressure to conclude their best possible deal while Biden is around, before Trump wins. They are unlikely to seek an escalation that could easily last into the next US administration,” he said.

As for Biden’s attempts to bring about a Saudi Arabia-Israel normalization, Huff said “the window has already closed, with no time left for the US Senate to ratify an agreement,” adding: “Saudi Arabia will probably find better terms under Trump and may feel less pressure to normalize ties with regional adversaries.”




This photo taken on Sept. 15, 2020 shows US President Donald Trump with Bahrain FM Abdullatif al-Zayani (left), Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, and UAE FM Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan during the signing of the Abraham Accords. (AFP)

The history of Trump’s approach to US relations Middle East countries is a checkered one, sometimes focusing on diplomacy and deals and, at other times, focusing on military force.

His first foreign trip in office in May 2017 was to Saudi Arabia, and he maintained warm relations with the Kingdom throughout his term.

In 2020, he facilitated the signing of the Abraham Accords, a series of bilateral agreements between Israel and the UAE and Israel and Bahrain. Morocco and Sudan followed suit the next year.

Trump faced criticism, however, for some of his Middle East policy decisions. In 2017 the then-president ordered a series of “precision” strikes on a Syrian airbase, drawing the ire of Russia and Iran. The decision was taken in retaliation for a chemical attack by the Syrian regime in which dozens of civilians were killed.




Children greet a US troop patrol in the Syrian town of al-Jawadiyah, in the northeastern Hasakeh province, near the border with Turkey, on Dec.17, 2020. (AFP)

Just two years later, in October 2019, Trump ordered the withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria, where they had been supporting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.

This decision was strongly condemned in a 354-60 vote in the US House of Representatives, as just days after the withdrawal, a Turkish incursion into the region led to the deaths of hundreds and displacement of 300,000 civilians.

Huff highlighted Trump’s 2024 policy platform, which calls for peace in the Middle East, support for Israel, and the rebuilding of “our alliance network in the region to ensure a future of peace, stability, and prosperity.”

“A key question is how far that alliance network will reach,” he said.




Kurdish fighters and veterans march on Oct.  8, 2019, in front of the UN office in the northern Kurdish Syrian city of Qamishli to protest against Turkish threats in the Kurdish region. (AFP)

“Will it include the Kurds, who hold the line against Iran, and who prevent a return of Daesh? Could it include Qatar and Turkey?”

Going forward, two US lawmakers intend to introduce bipartisan legislation providing President Biden, Trump and presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. with enhanced Security Service protection.

The new law could give Donald Trump, Joe Biden and presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr enhanced Secret Service protection. “Anything less would be a disservice to our democracy,” Congressmen Ritchie Torres and Mike Lawler said on Sunday.
 

 


White House pressing Ukraine to draft 18-year-old men to help fill manpower needs to battle Russia

White House pressing Ukraine to draft 18-year-old men to help fill manpower needs to battle Russia
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White House pressing Ukraine to draft 18-year-old men to help fill manpower needs to battle Russia

White House pressing Ukraine to draft 18-year-old men to help fill manpower needs to battle Russia
  • The outgoing Democratic administration wants Ukraine to lower the mobilization age to 18 from the current age of 25
  • The White House has pushed more than $56 billion in security assistance to Ukraine

WASHINGTON: President Joe Biden’s administration is urging Ukraine to quickly increase the size of its military by drafting more troops and revamping its mobilization laws to allow for the conscription of troops as young as 18.
A senior Biden administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the private consultations, said Wednesday that the outgoing Democratic administration wants Ukraine to lower the mobilization age to 18 from the current age of 25 to help expand the pool of fighting age men available to help a badly outmanned Ukraine in its nearly three-year-old war with Russia.
The White House has pushed more than $56 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the start of Russia’s February 2022 invasion and expects to send billions more to Kyiv before Biden leaves office in less than months.
But with time running out, the Biden White House is also sharpening its viewpoint that Ukraine has the weaponry it needs and now must dramatically increase its manpower if it’s going to stay in the fight with Russia.
The official said the Ukrainians believe they need about 160,000 additional troops, but the US administration believes they probably will need more.


Baltic Sea wind farms impair Sweden’s defense, says military

Baltic Sea wind farms impair Sweden’s defense, says military
Updated 27 November 2024
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Baltic Sea wind farms impair Sweden’s defense, says military

Baltic Sea wind farms impair Sweden’s defense, says military
  • The revelation comes after the Swedish government blocked the construction of 13 offshore wind farms in the Baltic on November 4
  • “The Swedish Armed Forces have been clear in their evaluation regarding offshore wind energy in the Baltic Sea,” the military said

STOCKHOLM: Offshore wind farms in the Baltic Sea hinder the defense of Sweden and its allies, impairing the military’s ability to identify threats, it said on Wednesday.
The revelation comes after the Swedish government blocked the construction of 13 offshore wind farms in the Baltic on November 4, and stopped another off the island of Gotland on November 21 due to the military’s defense concerns.
On Wednesday the military said all wind farm projects in the Baltic would pose a problem.
“The Swedish Armed Forces have been clear in their evaluation regarding offshore wind energy in the Baltic Sea,” the military said in an email to AFP.
“It would pose unacceptable risks for the defense of our country and our allies,” it added.
The government said the towers and rotating blades of wind turbines emit radar echoes and generate other forms of interference.
The relative proximity of the 13 blocked projects to the “highly militarised” Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, which is sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, had been “central” in the government’s assessment, Defense Minister Pal Jonson said.
He said wind farms in the area could delay the detection of incoming cruise missiles, cutting the warning time in half to 60 seconds.
“We currently see no technical solutions or legal prerequisites for a coexistence of our defense interests and wind power in the Baltic Sea,” the Armed Forces said on Wednesday.
“The greatly deteriorated security situation after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine means that we can no longer accept any risks to our defense capability.”
“Our ability to detect incoming threats against both Sweden and our allies is vital. Our sensor chain plays a decisive role in this and it must be able to operate with the highest possible capability,” it said.
Tensions have mounted in the Baltic since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
With Sweden and Finland now NATO members, all of the countries bordering the Baltic are now members of the alliance except Russia.
The Swedish government has insisted that wind power expansion remained a priority, with electricity consumption expected to double by 2045 from the current level.
It has said other areas off Sweden’s southwestern and northeastern coasts were better suited for offshore wind projects.


ICC seeks arrest warrant for Myanmar junta chief over crimes against Rohingya

Myanmar's junta chief Gen. Min Aung Hlaing delivers a speech during a ceremony to mark the country's Armed Forces Day in Naypyid
Myanmar's junta chief Gen. Min Aung Hlaing delivers a speech during a ceremony to mark the country's Armed Forces Day in Naypyid
Updated 27 November 2024
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ICC seeks arrest warrant for Myanmar junta chief over crimes against Rohingya

Myanmar's junta chief Gen. Min Aung Hlaing delivers a speech during a ceremony to mark the country's Armed Forces Day in Naypyid
  • ICC prosecutor requests arrest warrant for Gen. Min Aung Hlaing
  • Hlaing accused of crimes against humanity, deportation and persecution of the Rohingya

The International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor on Wednesday applied for an arrest warrant for the head of Myanmar’s military regime for crimes committed against the Rohingya Muslim minority.

Nearly a million people were forced to flee to neighboring Bangladesh from Myanmar’s Rakhine State to escape the 2017 military crackdown that UN experts have referred to as a “genocidal campaign,” amid evidence of ethnic cleansing, mass rape and killings.

ICC judges authorized an investigation into these events in 2019, saying that there was a “reasonable basis to believe widespread and/or systematic acts of violence may have been committed that could qualify as crimes against humanity.”

Although Myanmar is not a state party, Bangladesh ratified the ICC Rome Stature in 2010, which allows the court to have jurisdiction over some crimes related to the Rohingya because of their cross-border nature.

ICC chief prosecutor Karim Khan announced the application for an arrest warrant for Sr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing during a visit to Bangladesh, where he met members of the displaced Rohingya population.

“My office is submitting applications to the judges of the pretrial chamber and this first application is for Min Aung Hlaing, the acting president of Myanmar and the head of the Defense Services of Myanmar. Other warrant applications will follow soon,” he said in a video message.

Hlaing took power from Myanmar’s elected leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, in a coup in 2021. Serving as commander in chief of the Tatmadaw, the armed forces of Myanmar, since 2011, he is accused of having directed attacks against Rohingya civilians.

The ICC chief prosecutor’s office said in a statement that Hlaing “bears criminal responsibility for the crimes against humanity of deportation and persecution of the Rohingya, committed in Myanmar, and in part in Bangladesh” between Aug. 25, 2017 and Dec. 31, 2017 by the armed forces, “supported by the national police, the border guard police, as well as non-Rohingya civilians.”

The arrest warrant application “draws upon a wide variety of evidence from numerous sources such as witness testimonies, including from a number of insider witnesses, documentary evidence and authenticated scientific, photographic and video materials,” Khan’s office said.

Khan’s application is the first against a high-level Myanmar government official since the ICC investigation started seven years ago.

Nur Khan, a Bangladeshi lawyer and human rights activist, told Arab News it was a big development in the course of delivering justice to the Rohingya community and paving the way for the repatriation of Rohingya refugees.

“Eventually, it will create psychological pressure on the Myanmar military junta. It will also pave the way for the world to create a sustainable solution to the Rohingya crisis, ensuring reparation with rights, dignity, and citizenship,” he said.

In 2022, the International Court of Justice, the UN’s top court, started a separate case brought by Gambia, which accused Myanmar of genocide against the Rohingya. Five European countries and Canada have backed the proceedings.

“It’s true that a genocide had been conducted aiming to completely wipe out the Rohingya, and the Myanmar military has committed this crime. The Rohingya have been demanding for many years that those who are responsible for this genocide should be brought to trial,” Nur Khan said.

“We want to remain hopeful that this process will be expedited and that the Rohingya will get back their rights soon.”


Malaysian court drops one of the graft cases against jailed former premier Najib Razak

Malaysian court drops one of the graft cases against jailed former premier Najib Razak
Updated 27 November 2024
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Malaysian court drops one of the graft cases against jailed former premier Najib Razak

Malaysian court drops one of the graft cases against jailed former premier Najib Razak
  • Najib had already been convicted in his first graft case tied to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad state fund, or 1MBD, scandal

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia: A Malaysian court on Wednesday dropped charges against jailed former Prime Minister Najib Razak over criminal breach of trust linked to the multibillion-dollar looting of a state fund.
Najib had already been convicted in his first graft case tied to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad state fund, or 1MBD, scandal and began serving time in 2022 after losing his final appeal in his first graft case.
But he faces other graft trials including Wednesday’s case in which he was jointly charged with ex-treasury chief Irwan Serigar Abdullah with six counts of misappropriating 6.6 billion ringgit ($1.5 billion) in public funds. The money was intended as 1MDB’s settlement payment to Abu Dhabi’s International Petroleum Investment Company.
The Kuala Lumpur High Court discharged the pair after ruling that procedural delays and prosecutors’ failure to hand over key documents were unfair to the defense, said Najib’s lawyer, Muhammad Farhan. A discharge doesn’t mean an acquittal as prosecutors reserve the right to revive charges against them, he said.
“The decision today was based on the non-disclosure of critical documents, six years after the initial charges were brought up, which are relevant to our client’s defense preparation. Therefore the court correctly exercised its jurisdiction to discharge our client of the charges,” Farhan said.
Najib set up 1MDB shortly after taking power in 2009. Investigators allege more than $4.5 billion was stolen from the fund and laundered by his associates to finance Hollywood films and extravagant purchases. The scandal upended Najib’s government and he was defeated in the 2018 election.
Najib, 71, issued a rare apology in October for the scandal “under his watch” but reiterated his innocence.
Last month, he was ordered to enter his defense in another key case that ties him directly to the 1MDB scandal. The court ruled that the prosecution established its case on four charges of abuse of power to obtain over $700 million from the fund that went into Najib’s bank accounts between 2011 and 2014, and 21 counts of money laundering involving the same amount.
In addition, Najib still has another money laundering trial. His wife Rosmah Mansor and other senior government officials also face corruption charges.


Pakistan ends lockdown of its capital after Imran Khan supporters are dispersed by police

Pakistan ends lockdown of its capital after Imran Khan supporters are dispersed by police
Updated 27 November 2024
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Pakistan ends lockdown of its capital after Imran Khan supporters are dispersed by police

Pakistan ends lockdown of its capital after Imran Khan supporters are dispersed by police
  • The police operation came hours after thousands of Khan supporters, defying government warnings, broke through a barrier of shipping containers
  • Tension has been high in Islamabad since Sunday when supporters of the former prime minister began a “long march” from the restive northwest to demand Khan’s release

ISLAMABAD: Authorities reopened roads linking Pakistan’s capital with the rest of the country, ending a four-day lockdown, on Wednesday after using tear gas and firing into the air to disperse supporters of imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan who marched to Islamabad to demand his release from prison.
“All roads are being reopened, and the demonstrators have been dispersed,” Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi said.
Khan’s wife, Bushra Bibi, who was leading the protest, and other demonstrators fled in vehicles when police pushed back against the rallygoers following clashes in which at least seven people were killed.
The police operation came hours after thousands of Khan supporters, defying government warnings, broke through a barrier of shipping containers blocking off Islamabad and entered a high-security zone, where they clashed with security forces.
Tension has been high in Islamabad since Sunday when supporters of the former prime minister began a “long march” from the restive northwest to demand his release. Khan has been in a prison for over a year and faces more than 150 criminal cases that his party says are politically motivated.
Hundreds of demonstrators have been arrested since Sunday.
Bibi and leaders of her husband’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party fled to Mansehra in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, where the party still rules.
Khan, who remains a popular opposition figure, was ousted in 2022 through a no-confidence vote in Parliament.