Can Labour government usher in a new era of UK-Arab engagement?

Analysis Can Labour government usher in a new era of UK-Arab engagement?
The message for Labour’s Keir Starmer is that Britain’s sizable Muslim community has found its voice and its political power, and its support can no longer be taken for granted. (Reuters)
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Updated 09 July 2024
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Can Labour government usher in a new era of UK-Arab engagement?

Can Labour government usher in a new era of UK-Arab engagement?
  • Some experts think policy focus will shift from migration, counterextremism to Palestine, closer Gulf ties
  • Loud and clear election message is that support of Britain’s Muslim community cannot be taken for granted

LONDON: Before last Thursday, few British voters outside of the east London constituency of Ilford North had heard of Leanne Mohamad, the independent candidate running for election in the seat held by one of the Labour Party’s biggest names.

Mohamad’s name was no better known after the election, in which Wes Streeting, Labour’s shadow health secretary, held on to the seat he had captured from the Conservatives in 2015.

But the success of the 23-year-old British-Palestinian in coming within a whisker of defeating Streeting was one of several warning shots fired across the bows of a Labour Party which has now woken up to the fact that the UK’s Muslim community might have an equal or even greater say in its chances of remaining in power for more than one term as the UK Jewish lobby, which the party has spent the past five years courting assiduously.

Streeting, who is now Labour’s new health secretary, squeezed back in by just 528 votes — 15,647 to Mohamad’s 15,119 — an unprecedented collapse of support over a single issue of foreign policy.

He was not the only senior party member who felt the wrath of the Muslim community and its supporters over Labour’s half-hearted stance on Gaza.




Labour’s new prime minister is on tricky ground over Gaza. (Reuters)

In the constituency of Holborn & St. Pancras, even Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer’s 2019 majority of 36,641 was slashed in half.

His chief opponent was another independent, Andrew Feinstein, a former South African politician and the son of a Holocaust survivor who criticized Starmer’s pre-election position on Gaza, having previously argued that the Palestinian-led Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement is “a peaceful mechanism to weaken and thus force concessions from” an “apartheid Israel.”

Over 120 miles north in Birmingham Ladywood, long-serving Labour MP Shabana Mahmood, who secured 79 percent of the constituency’s votes in 2019, saw her majority cut in half and almost equaled by Akhmed Yakoob, yet another pro-Palestinian independent candidate.

In the neighboring constituency of Birmingham Yardley, Labour’s Jess Phillips saw her 2019 majority of 10,659 slashed to fewer than 700 votes by newcomer Jody McIntyre, running for the Workers Party.

Her setback came her November 2023 resignation from the shadow cabinet in protest over her party’s stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict, declaring she had to vote “with my constituents, my head, and my heart, which has felt as if it were breaking over the last four weeks with the horror of the situation in Israel and Palestine.”




The new health secretary, Wes Streeting, narrowly escaped defeat to Pro-Palestine independent Leanne Mohamad. (Reuters)

And they were the lucky ones. In 21 seats in the UK where more than one-fifth of the population is Muslim, Labour saw its share of the vote fall by 25 percent, and four MPs lost their seats to independents on pro-Gaza tickets.

The message for Labour, which has been received loud and clear, is that Britain’s sizable Muslim community has found its voice and its political power, and its support can no longer be taken for granted.

As Shabana Mahmood said after holding on to her Birmingham Ladywood seat, “we have bridges to rebuild … we have trust that we must earn back from my own community.”

There are already signs that Britain’s new government, whose program of social and economic reform is dependent upon securing a second term in office five years from now, is taking steps to do just that.

Starmer, whose wife is Jewish, inherited the leadership of the Labour Party in April 2020 from Jeremy Corbyn, a staunch supporter of the Palestinian cause whose five years as leader were overshadowed by persistent accusations that the party he presided over was antisemitic — allegations that Corbyn and his supporters saw as an orchestrated campaign motivated by Labour’s support for Palestine.




Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, a staunch supporter of the Palestinian cause, regained his seat as an independent candidate. (Reuters)

A report by the Equality and Human Rights Commission, the UK’s human rights watchdog, published in October 2020, concluded there were “serious failings in the Labour Party leadership in addressing antisemitism and an inadequate process for handling antisemitism complaints.”

The report had a Catch-22 air about it, concluding as it did that Labour’s protestations that the multiple accusations of antisemitism against it — from organizations including the Jewish Labour Movement, the Campaign Against Antisemitism and Jewish Voice for Labour — were manufactured smears, was, in itself, evidence of antisemitism.

Starmer set out to rebuild the trust of the Jewish community, declaring that he would “tear out this poison by its roots and judge success by the return of Jewish members.”

It seems to have worked. In the 2019 general election an estimated 11 percent of British Jews voted Labour; last Thursday it was closer to 50 percent.




Staremer, whose wife is Jewish, told The Guardian, “half of the family are Jewish, they’re either here or in Israel.” (AFP)

But Labour’s new prime minister is on tricky ground over Gaza. As he told The Guardian in an interview last month, “half of the family are Jewish, they’re either here or in Israel.”

Now that the election is over, and his party has been badly bruised at the ballot box by the perception that it has turned its back on the plight of the Palestinians, a cause traditionally close to Labour’s heart, Starmer faces the puzzle of how to retain UK Jewish support while bringing Muslims back on board.

“Labour has been very vocal about the need to counter antisemitism, and this now puts it in a very awkward position,” Kelly Petillo, program manager for the Middle East and North Africa at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Arab News.

“On the one hand, they have portrayed themselves as the people who are going to clean up the Labour Party, but on the other they have to grapple with the reality that many independent candidates won because Labour’s stance on the war in Gaza was unsatisfactory for many.”

It is possible, she believes, that Labour will tread water on the issue of Gaza and the broader question of Palestinian statehood until the outcome of November’s presidential election in the US is settled.




Israel has been conducting a devestating military assault on the Gaza Strip since October last year. (AFP)

If, as seems increasingly likely, Donald Trump returns to the presidency, “there could well be alignment with the Trump administration, leading to a bias toward Israel, which is already evident in the nature of some of the candidates Labour selected to run in the election.”

For example, one of Labour’s new parliamentarians is Luke Akehurst, the MP for North Durham and former director of the pro-Israeli activist group We Believe in Israel, who has described Israel’s actions in Gaza as proportionate.

But for now, at least, the new UK government’s foreign policy is already showing signs of taking a turn for the pro-Palestinian.

Before the election, the then Conservative government had challenged the decision by the International Criminal Court to consider approving the chief prosecutor’s request for arrest warrants to be issued against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, for alleged war crimes in Gaza.

The UK questioned the ICC’s jurisdiction in the case, but the new Labour-led government has hinted it may withdraw the objection.




Israel’s military campaign in the Palestinian enclave has killed more than 35,000 people. (AFP)

The news leaked after two early calls to leaders in the region by Starmer. In one, he spoke to Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, expressing his concern about “the ongoing suffering and devastating loss of life” in Gaza, and restating the support for a Palestinian state that David Lammy, his foreign secretary, had already articulated.

Starmer’s other call was to Netanyahu. According to a Labour transcript, the new prime minister spoke of the “clear and urgent” need for a ceasefire in Gaza, adding that it was “also important to ensure the long-term conditions for a two-state solution were in place, including ensuring the Palestinian Authority had the financial means to operate effectively.”

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Starmer also urged the Israeli leader to act with caution in his dealings with Hezbollah on Israel’s northern border.

Meanwhile, Lammy has said that the Labour administration will reexamine legal advice given to the Conservative government that UK arms being sold to Israel were not being used in breach of international humanitarian law.

Lammy has also suggested the UK might reverse its decision to stop funding UNRWA, the UN’s Palestinian relief agency. In January, major donors to the agency, including the US, the EU, the UK and Germany, withdrew funding when it emerged that a dozen of UNRWA’s 30,000 Palestinian employees were suspected of having been involved in the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel.




Britain’s newly appointed Foreign Secretary David Lammy leaves Downing Street. (Reuters)

By April, most of this international funding had been restored and “the UK is now in the weird position where it is one of the few countries that has not restored UNRWA funding,” said Petillo.

Despite Lammy’s pronouncements, “I think Starmer is being advised internally to delay this as much as possible, keeping the UK in line with the US, which has blocked it until March 2025. This type of deflection is probably a tactic they will use to address some of the domestic tensions they are under.”

Because of this and other issues, UK policy in the Middle East “will continue to be dictated to a certain extent by US politics and the US line; you could argue that we won’t see a huge change from foreign policy in this area under the Conservatives.

“On the other hand, one can anticipate change just because the bar set by the Conservative government was so low, partly because of all the distractions they have faced, but also because of the narrow lens through which they have looked at Middle East policy, focused mostly on migration and countering extremism and, of course, through a reduction in aid budgets, which has affected countries like Yemen and Syria massively.”




Smoke billows during Israeli bombardment on the village of Khiam in south Lebanon near the border with Israel. (AFP)

Lammy has already made plain that Labour intends to reengage with the Middle East through a new policy of what he called “progressive realism,” and has also spoken of the need for the UK to mend relations with the Arab Gulf states.

This would be timely and highly welcome in the region, said Petillo.

“The UK has definitely shifted its attention a bit away from the region,” she said. “It was a big part of the international support for Ukraine and lately has been looking at the Gulf states solely through the narrow lens of energy.

FASTFACTS

• SR83.31bn Total Saudi-UK trade in goods and services in 2023.

• SR116.54bn Total UK-UAE trade in goods and services in 2023.

•SR37.56bn Total UK-Qatar trade in goods and services in 2023.

“This has really frustrated the Gulf countries, but Lammy has been traveling to the region, even before the war in Gaza, to address this grievance, and since then has been using the war as an opportunity to widen the conversation.

“There is a conversation right now among the Gulf states about building a regional security architecture, into which the process of Arab-Israeli normalization fits, and the new UK government is very keen to enter this conversation in a way that the Conservatives were not.”




Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party lost power in an election landslide to Labour. (Reuters)

The new UK government, Lina Khatib, director of the SOAS Middle East Institute and associate Fellow of the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Program, told Arab News, “has the mandate to implement the needed foreign policy resets that the Labour party had prioritized ahead of the general election. Repairing relations with Arab countries in the Gulf and taking action toward a ceasefire in Gaza and resurrecting the Israel-Palestine peace process are two such priorities.”

According to Khatib, Labour has “rightly framed the Gulf as an important partner for security and economic growth.

“However, the UK government must pursue a more comprehensive strategy toward the Gulf which also takes into consideration the region’s geopolitical interests,” she said.

“This includes adopting a bold approach in addressing the destabilizing role of Iran and its proxies in the Middle East, which the previous UK government had merely skirted around.”




Labour will tread water on the issue of Gaza until the outcome of November’s presidential election in the US is settled, analyst Kelly Petillo indicated.

The UK “must also strengthen its diplomatic, cultural, and business engagement with the Middle East and North Africa. This will help nurture areas of growth across those sectors in the region and bolster the UK’s own standing.”The Labour Middle East Council, established in January this year by British politicians and former ambassadors to the region, with “the fundamental goal of cultivating understanding and fostering enduring relationships between UK parliamentarians and the Middle East & North Africa,” was “one avenue for facilitating such engagement.”

Two perspectives on a historic relationship


MIRAN HASSAN, Founder and director, Labour Middle East Council

It’s about treating the UK-Gulf relationship with more respect and giving it the attention that it deserves. For example, if you look at the GCC-UK Free Trade Agreement, those negotiations have been going on for years with no meaningful progress. That’s a very good example of where the relationship needs to be enhanced and given the attention that it deserves, considering the bloc is one of our largest trading partners.

Not enough attention was paid by the Conservatives to the GCC as a priority trading partner, and I’m hopeful and quite confident that’s going to change under this government.

This is no longer a world where the UK and the US are the only partners available. Now you can just go over to China, Russia is making strategic alliances, and so on. It’s now a world where the UK needs to actually fight to be a partner and for opportunities. It isn’t that the region wants to turn its back on the UK, but one that commands respect. And if they don't have the right level of engagement, then naturally they will look elsewhere.

What’s important for us at Labour Middle East Council is to have the region viewed through the lens of how interconnected our foreign policy is. So, when we look at the issue with the Houthis and their attacks, for example, how has that impacted global trade as a whole and our interests in other parts of the world?

Domestically, migration is a huge priority for the UK government, and we need to be engaged with the region that is the source of a lot of that migration, especially as climate change plays a bigger role and has a huge impact on many countries, such as Syria, Iraq and Libya.

BURCU OZCELIK, Senior Research Fellow (Middle East Security), RUSI

The Labour government has inherited status quo-altering challenges on multiple fronts in the Middle East. With the epicenter in Gaza, conflict vectors reach across Yemen and the Red Sea, Iraq, Syria, and notably with Lebanon-based Hezbollah, where the threat of an escalated war looms large.

While voting results show that Labour gained the trust of a sizeable portion of the British Jewish electorate, largely thanks to rejecting the Corbyn era’s polarizing policies to a more centrist approach, how Labour behaves both in its domestic response to voter expectations, and in its foreign-policy posture in the Middle East, will be scrutinized closely by Jewish and Muslim voters alike, who look to the new government to reduce the devastating human cost of the conflict.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy is set to emphasize the pledge enshrined in the Labour manifesto to recognize a Palestinian state as part of a peace process toward a two-state solution “with a safe and secure Israel alongside a viable and sovereign Palestinian state.” The issue is the extent to which Britain will play a proactive role in being pro-peace above all.

With the electoral campaign now behind us, voters will look to see tangible evidence that policies will match promises. This requires foregrounding a human-rights based approach equally all those civilians impacted, continuing to call for the immediate release of Israeli hostages held since Oct. 7, 2023, by Hamas, alongside pressure for a ceasefire, and urgent humanitarian aid to Palestinians. Unresolved issues will demand urgent attention, such as reviewing future means of funding that will permit the Palestinian Authority to govern effectively, legal concerns around UK arms sales, and the ICC’s ruling on Israel.

The Gulf states are poised — with the appropriate diplomatic assurances — to contribute to a necessary regional effort to support the rehabilitation, reconstruction and rebuilding of Gaza. Despite lulls and lags in the relationship, Labour now has an opportunity to engage with Gulf states (and societies) to facilitate a regional and sustained response to support Gaza, reassure Israel, and work toward the objective of Palestinian statehood.

Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right allies will seek to buy more time. Britain can apply pressure to bring an end to the humanitarian crisis and support mechanisms — with strong buy-in from the Arab states — to begin planning for the day after.

 


Russia says forces capture two more settlements in eastern Ukraine

Russia says forces capture two more settlements in eastern Ukraine
Updated 14 sec ago
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Russia says forces capture two more settlements in eastern Ukraine

Russia says forces capture two more settlements in eastern Ukraine
  • In September, Moscow’s forces advanced at their fastest rate since March 2022, according to open source data, despite Ukraine seizing a part of Russia’s southern Kursk region

MOSCOW: Russian forces have captured two more settlements in areas of heavy military activity in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Wednesday.
Ukraine’s military noted fighting around both villages in eastern sectors of the 1,000-km (600-mile) front line, but did not acknowledge that either had fallen into Russian hands.
The Russian ministry identified the villages as Maksymivka, just north of the hilltop town of Vuhledar, captured by Russian forces last months after long months of fighting, and Antonivka, near the embattled town of Kurakhove, further north.
The General Staff of Ukraine’s military said Kyiv’s forces had repelled two attacks near Maksymivka and a nearby village in the vicinity of Vuhledar in Donetsk region. Four clashes were still going on.
The general staff reported a “tense” situation around the city of Kurakhove, with 39 Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions. It listed Antonivka as one of several villages in the area where Moscow’s troops were trying to advance.
Reuters could not independently verify battlefield reports from either side.
A Ukrainian officer, in a radio interview, said Russian forces were advancing in parts of the Kurakhove area, making the situation particularly difficult.
“There is a danger of encirclement,” Nazar Voitenko, press officer of the 33rd separate brigade, told US-funded Radio Liberty.
“I cannot currently assess the issue of withdrawal, but the situation is indeed extremely challenging. Compared to the summer, it has changed quite rapidly.”
After failing in their initial attempt to move on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, Russian forces have focused on capturing the eastern Donbas region, made up of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
Russian forces hold about one-fifth of Ukrainian territory.
In September, Moscow’s forces advanced at their fastest rate since March 2022, according to open source data, despite Ukraine seizing a part of Russia’s southern Kursk region.


A-listers fail to win Harris votes as Trump lauds famous ‘bros’

A-listers fail to win Harris votes as Trump lauds famous ‘bros’
Updated 07 November 2024
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A-listers fail to win Harris votes as Trump lauds famous ‘bros’

A-listers fail to win Harris votes as Trump lauds famous ‘bros’
  • Celebrity endorsements have long been part of the fabric of US elections, harking back to the days when Frank Sinatra wrangled the ‘Rat Pack’ to support John F. Kennedy in 1960
  • Donald Trump, backed by Elon Musk, also received a last-minute endorsement from Joe Rogan, the influential podcast host

LOS ANGELES, United States: A raft of celebrities from Taylor Swift and Beyonce to George Clooney and Harrison Ford proved unable to prevent Kamala Harris’s crushing defeat in the US election, underlining the limited impact of sweeping star endorsements on voters.
Instead it was Donald Trump and the Republicans — who received scant support from the entertainment industry at large, but tapped into a targeted subset of well-known, hypermasculine influencers — who won comfortably.
So, did the Democrats’ long-standing Hollywood and music industry connections, including last-minute rally appearances from Lady Gaga and Jennifer Lopez, make any difference at all in the end?
“Not in this election, clearly,” said New York University arts professor Laurence Maslon.
“At the end of the day, people probably realize that Beyonce and George Clooney don’t have to worry about the cost of gas or the cost of eggs — so maybe they’re sort of irrelevant,” he told AFP.
Celebrity endorsements have long been part of the fabric of US elections, harking back to the days when Frank Sinatra wrangled the “Rat Pack” to support John F. Kennedy in 1960.
Even this year, Hollywood-led fundraisers helped raise tens of millions of dollars for Harris’s record-breaking campaign war chest.
But their impact in actually influencing votes has always been a “mixed bag,” said Arizona State University associate professor Margaretha Bentley, who teaches a public policy course on Taylor Swift.
“It’s never going to be the golden ticket that everybody’s looking for,” she said.
Mark Harvey, author of “Celebrity Influence: Politics, Persuasion, and Issue-Based Advocacy,” agreed that we “shouldn’t be terribly surprised” by the lack of celebrity impact.
“There isn’t a real strong science behind this idea that celebrities can influence people to vote for candidates,” he said.

Famous supporters have only ever been effective when advocating on very specific issues on which they are widely regarded as expert, added Harvey.
As Donald Trump delivered his victory speech early Wednesday, the new president-elect was flanked by — and showered praise on — famous names from the world of sport.
UFC boss Dana White was lovingly hailed as “tough” and “a piece of work,” while golfer Bryson DeChambeau was celebrated as “fantastic” and even having a “slightly longer” drive than the golf-loving Trump.
Loud cheers — and a significant portion of Trump’s address — were devoted to his best-known supporter of all, tech billionaire Elon Musk.
Trump also received a last-minute endorsement from Joe Rogan, the influential host of one of the world’s top podcasts.
The Republican may have benefited from these associations because, in an election “largely driven by cultural issues, one of the most potent cultural issues was masculinity,” said Harvey.
“This sort of ‘be a real man,’ the Trump ‘macho’ sort of thing... it’s the kind of thing that Joe Rogan plays all the time.”

For the Democrats, this latest scarring experience will require a “deep self-analysis... of what they did and didn’t do, and what might have been successful,” including with celebrity endorsements, said Bentley.
Ashley Spillane, author of the report “Celebrities Strengthening Our Culture of Democracy,” agreed there was “debate” about the “value and impact of celebrity endorsements of candidates.”
But there is still “robust evidence that celebrities do have a real impact in promoting overall, nonpartisan civic engagement,” she wrote via email, pointing to Swift’s endorsement of Harris, which was credited with driving 400,000 people to a voter registration site.
Even if their endorsements failed, Hollywood celebrities showed no indication Wednesday that they would remain silent.
Waking up to the news of Trump’s victory, several well-known figures took to social media to vent their frustrations.
Oscar winner Jamie Lee Curtis said Trump’s win would usher in “a sure return to a more restrictive, some fear draconian time.”
“Fascist with total power... That may have been the last free election,” wrote actor John Cusack. “Horror is coming.”
Pop singer Cardi B, who appeared at a Harris rally last Friday, simply wrote: “I hate yall bad.”


‘Abu Ivanka’ returns: Trump set to pick up from where he left off in Middle East

‘Abu Ivanka’ returns: Trump set to pick up from where he left off in Middle East
Updated 07 November 2024
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‘Abu Ivanka’ returns: Trump set to pick up from where he left off in Middle East

‘Abu Ivanka’ returns: Trump set to pick up from where he left off in Middle East
  • President-elect expected to prioritize ending wars in Gaza and Lebanon, pressure Iran, push for normalization deals
  • Arab leaders considered Trump a valuable partner and a robust ally against regional militia groups

LONDON: Defying almost all election predictions, Donald Trump, or “Abu Ivanka” as he is commonly known in the region, has secured what he has called a “powerful mandate” to form the next US administration, with massive implications not just for domestic politics but for the international community, including the Middle East.

Since his election victory was confirmed on Wednesday, messages of congratulations have flooded in from Arab capitals, buoyed by the opportunities for deeper strategic cooperation that a second Trump presidency likely has in store for the region.

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman congratulated Trump in separate cables on Wednesday, with King Salman praising the “historically close (bilateral) relations that everyone seeks to strengthen and develop in all fields.”

On May 21, 2017, US President Donald Trump (R) joined  Saudi Arabia's King Salman and Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (L) led the inauguration of the Global Center for Combating Extremist Ideology "Etidal" in Riyadh. (Saudi Royal Palace/AFP/File photo)

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan sent his “sincere congratulations” to Trump in a message on X, saying: “The UAE looks forward to continuing to work with our partners in the US towards a future of opportunity, prosperity, and stability for all.”

Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani posted on X that he looks “forward to working together again to strengthen our strategic relationship and partnership.”

Egypt also welcomed the result, with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi posting on social media: “We look forward to working together in bringing and maintaining regional peace and stability and bolstering the strategic partnership between Egypt and the United States.”

While almost all of the national polls had placed Vice President Kamala Harris ahead in the race to succeed President Joe Biden in the Oval Office, there were clear signs that ethnic minority voters were beginning to turn their backs on the Democrats — among them Arab Americans.

Supporters of former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump attend a late night hookah bar election watch party in Dearborn, Michigan, on November 6, 2024. Incoming president Donald Trump pulled off a surprising feat late in the 2024 campaign, winning over swathes of Muslim voters with a promise to end bloodshed in the Middle East. (Photo by Issam AHMED / AFP)

An Arab News-YouGov poll conducted in October showed that Biden’s stance on Israel and the war in Gaza had contributed to the alienation of Arab American voters, leading a slim majority of those surveyed to say they would be voting for the Republicans in several swing states.

Some 45 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Trump, while 43 percent said they would opt for Harris, despite the fact that 40 percent of those polled described themselves as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans, and 23 percent as independents.

Although Trump was perceived as being more supportive of Israel than Harris, many Arab Americans indicated in the poll that they would still vote for him. Those predictions appear to have played out, with Arab American voters in the swing state of Michigan, for instance, voting for Trump in huge numbers, helping tip the result against the Democrats.

Demonstrators protest in support of the Palestinians who have died in Gaza outside of the Arab American National Museum in Dearborn, Michigan, on August 11, 2024. (AFP)

Trump won 42.5 percent of Dearborn’s vote, compared to 36 percent for Kamala Harris, officials reported. Green Party candidate Jill Stein won 18 percent.

“The reason for this seismic paradigm shift in the Arab American and Muslim voting electorate is because they responded to President Trump’s message of peace,” Oubai Shahbandar, a former defense intelligence officer and Middle East analyst with the Pentagon, told Arab News.

“They responded to President Trump’s outreach to these communities, which was spearheaded by his foreign policy envoy Richard Grenell. It was a message of peace. It was a message of inclusion. They brought in Muslim American community leaders and imams like Belal Alzuhairi, like Amer Ghalib, like Bill Bazzi, and the strategy has paid off.

“It was also a rejection by the Arab American and Muslim American or Middle Eastern community of the past four years of failed Biden-Harris policies, both domestically and when it comes to the foreign policy — a foreign policy that was widely viewed by these communities as enabling the mass killings of Muslims and Arabs across the Middle East.

“And there was a desire for real change, a new way forward. And the numbers speak for themselves. Muslim Americans and Arab Americans wanted President Trump back in the White House.”

Born in 1946 in New York, Trump was a prominent businessman and media personality before going on to serve as president between 2017 and 2021. His political career began in 2015 when he ran for the Republican Party nomination promising immigration reform, trade renegotiation, and a tough stance against Iran.

He won the 2016 election against Hillary Clinton with a focus on “America First” policies, which included tax cuts, deregulation, and shifting foreign policy. However, his presidency was marked by polarizing actions, including his response to the COVID-19 pandemic, two impeachment trials, and often divisive rhetoric on migration, abortion rights, and democracy.

When Trump enters the White House for the second time on Jan. 20, his in-tray will be stacked high with pressing issues jostling for attention, from the cost-of-living crisis and border controls, which were clearly top priorities for US voters, to the wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and Lebanon.

“Trump’s victory exceeded expectations and could prove historic,” Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Washington D.C.-based Middle East Institute, told Arab News.

Firas Maksad. (AN file photo)

“If they also win the House, this might be the first time Republicans control all branches of government since World War One. It ushers in an era where America lurches decisively to the right.”

If Trump’s second term is anything like his first, tectonic shifts can be expected on foreign policy — shaped by a blend of “America first” isolationism and his aggressive deal-making style, designed to disengage the US from “the endless wars,” break costly stalemates, and promote American business interests over foreign rivals.

“The Trump foreign policy tent includes both foreign policy hawks and isolationists,” said Maksad. “We will need to watch closely to determine who will come to dominate in key foreign policy appointments. Figures like Grenell or Mike Pompeo and Tom Cotton.”

Richard Grenell, former acting Director of National Intelligence, speaks on stage during the Republican National Convention n Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 17, 2024. (AFP/File)

While many people in the Arab world are wary of Trump’s close ties to Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, others view him as an ally in the effort to rein in Iran-backed militia groups since the killing of the Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in 2020.

After Trump’s 2016 election victory, his first overseas visit as president was to Riyadh, where in May 2017 he held bilateral talks with the Saudi government and two multilateral meetings with members of the Gulf Cooperation Council and other Arab and Muslim countries.

In an interview with Al Arabiya in October, Trump said the US-Saudi Arabia relationship “was great with capital letters. G-R-E-A-T, great” when he was in the White House and that the crown prince is “a great guy.”

“(I have) so much respect for the king and so much respect for Mohammed who is doing so great,” Trump said. “He’s a real visionary, he’s done things that nobody else would have even thought about.”

US President Donald Trump (R) meets with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House on March 20, 2018 in Washington, DC. (AFP/File)

Trump’s previous administration strengthened the military and economic capacities of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, notably through a boost in trade, support for their regional ambitions, and a hardline stance against Iran, including his withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

“Terrible news for Tehran,” Mohammed A. Salih, a non-resident senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Middle East Program, said in a thread on X on Wednesday, responding to Trump’s election win.

“Expect a renewed maximum pressure campaign, sanctions against Tehran, and an increased likelihood of Israeli strikes within Iran against strategic sites, especially with Iran’s air defense now immensely weakened.”

A new Trump presidency is also likely to be bad news for Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia, as it will likely come under further regional pressure and a stronger military campaign by the US and Israel in the wake of its attacks on Red Sea shipping in solidarity with Hamas.

This handout photograph taken on March 6, 2024 and released by the Indian Navy shows the Barbados-flagged bulk carrier following a attack by Yemen's Houthi militia, in the Gulf of Aden.  (AFP/file)

The picture is unclear on Gaza, however, where Israel has been at war with Palestinian militant groups since the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel. Likewise in Lebanon, where Israel is at war with the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, the implications of a Trump win are uncertain.

While Trump is known as a staunch supporter of Israel, having recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moved the US Embassy there from Tel Aviv during his last presidency, he also showed a determination to find a solution to the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The previous Trump administration brokered the Abraham Accords in 2020, which established diplomatic and economic ties between Israel and Arab states including the UAE and Bahrain by decoupling normalization from recognition of Palestinian statehood.

His return to the White House could see the revival of the Abraham Accords and the drive toward Arab-Israeli normalization, which many had written off in the wake of the Gaza war. He has also pledged to end the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon on day one of his presidency but has not outlined what a solution might look like for the Palestinian people.

In this photo taken on Sept. 15, 2020, then US President Donald Trump celebrates with 
Bahrain FM Abdullatif al-Zayani (L), Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu (2L), and UAE's FM  Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan after the signing of the Abraham Accords at the White House in Washington, DC. (AFP)

“Trump will try to bring the wars in Gaza and Lebanon to a close, pressure Iran, and push forward on normalization,” said Maksad.

“However, his ability to deliver might be limited by the agency of local actors and the complexity of Israeli politics. There is also uncertainty about whether a Republican president can get enough Democrats in the Senate to approve a defense treaty with Saudi Arabia, a crucial part of any pathway towards normalization.”

Although Trump’s victory is likely to be viewed in Europe and perhaps China as ushering in a period of unpredictability, Middle Eastern leaders are likely to welcome a return to a more transactional relationship with Washington — one that is shaped by mutual trade and security interests without perceived interference in their domestic affairs.

“Trump’s victory will support His Highness the Crown Prince’s vision in the region for the benefit of all,” Saudi commentator Mohammed Al-Mubarak posted on X. “Even global companies, especially American ones, will have an active role in this renaissance.”
 

 


Germany’s Scholz fires rebellious finance minister

Germany’s Scholz fires rebellious finance minister
Updated 06 November 2024
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Germany’s Scholz fires rebellious finance minister

Germany’s Scholz fires rebellious finance minister
  • The move came after weeks of bitter feuding that have rocked the coalition government
  • Fiscal hawk Lindner had proposed sweeping reforms to jumpstart the troubled German economy

BERLIN: Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Wednesday fired his rebellious Finance Minister Christian Lindner, spelling doom for the three-party coalition though Scholz could stay on in a minority government.
The move came after weeks of bitter feuding that have rocked the coalition government between Scholz’s Social Democrats, Lindner’s Free Democrats and the Greens.
Scholz fired his finance minister during a crunch meeting of senior figures from all three ideologically disparate parties at the chancellery, Scholz’s spokesman Steffen Hebestreit told AFP.
The chancellery scheduled a press conference for 2015 GMT, and Lindner announced statements to the media shortly after, to be followed by Greens politicians.
Fiscal hawk Lindner had proposed sweeping reforms to jumpstart the troubled German economy that the other two parties opposed, and had long flirted with bolting the unhappy coalition.
He had repeatedly warned of “an autumn of decisions” as difficult budget talks have loomed.
Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck of the Greens had warned that the US presidential election, Germany’s economic woes and the Ukraine and Middle East wars make this “the worst time for the government to fail.”
The Bild daily reported that on Wednesday he told the other parties that the talks of recent days had shown there was not enough common ground on economic and financial policy.
Lindner had argued that Donald Trump’s US presidential election victory had made an economic turnaround even more urgent.
The newspaper added that Lindner had suggested that the parties opt for new elections in early 2025, but that Scholz had rejected the proposal.
If confirmed, this would suggest the Social Democrats and the Greens will seek to stay in power as a minority government until scheduled elections in September 2025.


UK doctor gets 31 years for poisoning mother’s partner with fake COVID vaccine

UK doctor gets 31 years for poisoning mother’s partner with fake COVID vaccine
Updated 06 November 2024
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UK doctor gets 31 years for poisoning mother’s partner with fake COVID vaccine

UK doctor gets 31 years for poisoning mother’s partner with fake COVID vaccine
  • “It was an audacious plan to murder a man in plain sight and you very nearly succeeded,” Justice Christina Lambert said
  • Kwan, 53, pleaded guilty last month in Newcastle Crown Court to attempted murder

LONDON: A British doctor who was disgruntled about his inheritance and tried to kill his mother’s boyfriend by injecting him with a fake COVID-19 vaccine that was poison was sentenced Wednesday to 31 years in prison.
Dr. Thomas Kwan disguised himself as a nurse making home virus booster visits to infect Patrick O’Hara with a flesh-eating poison because he believed the older man stood in the way of him inheriting his mother’s home some day.
“It was an audacious plan to murder a man in plain sight and you very nearly succeeded,” Justice Christina Lambert said. “You were certainly obsessed by money and more particularly, the money to which you considered yourself entitled.”
Kwan, 53, pleaded guilty last month in Newcastle Crown Court to attempted murder.
O’Hara, 72, survived after being in intensive care for several weeks and having part of his arm cut away to prevent the necrotizing fasciitis from spreading.
The ordeal left him “a shell of an individual,” he said. O’Hara and Kwan’s mother, Jenny Leung, have since split up.
Police used surveillance camera footage to track down Kwan.
They found he had hatched an elaborate plot by sending fake letters with National Health Service logos, hyperlinks and even a QR code to offer a home visit for a COVID booster to O’Hara. Kwan disguised himself in head-to-toe protective gear, tinted glasses and a surgical mask and drove a vehicle to the appointment in January using fake license plates.
Kwan, who was described as having a morbid obsession with poisons, used iodomethane, a substance found in pesticides that he thought would be difficult for medics to detect, the judge said.
Police found arsenic, liquid mercury and castor beans, which can be used to make the chemical weapon ricin, during a search of his home. He had instructions on how to make ricin on his computer.
The judge said Kwan was upset about getting a smaller share of his inheritance when his father died. He had a strained relationship with his mother, and learned that she had a provision in her will that would allow O’Hara to stay in her home if she died before him.
“Your resentment and bitterness toward your mother and Mr. O’Hara was all to do with money and your belief you were not being given money which you thought you were entitled to,” Lambert said.
O’Hara said justice had been served by the sentence.