US struggling to calm Israeli-Hezbollah tensions

This week’s exchange of rocket fire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, coupled with escalating clashes that have included the assassination of a prominent Hezbollah leader and the targeting of military and civilian targets in northern Israel, has caused American officials to worry that this escalation could push the war-torn region into a broader conflict.

Since Oct. 7, the Biden administration has been working diligently behind the scenes to reduce the chances of a war between Hezbollah and Israel, which could escalate into a regional war involving the US or expose American troops in Syria, Iraq and Jordan to greater risks.

The most notable US efforts to calm the ongoing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah included the visit of envoy Amos Hochstein to the region on June 18. In Israel, he met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. In Beirut, he met with Lebanese parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, acting Prime Minister Najib Mikati, the Lebanese army commander and other officials. He clarified that the US does not want an escalation and called for an end to the ongoing Israeli aggression on Lebanon, as well as the restoration of calm and stability at the latter’s southern border. He pointed out that continuous Israeli threats to Lebanon would not prevent the US from seeking calm, which is a priority for it and all friends of Lebanon.

During his visit, Hochstein emphasized to both parties that the Biden administration wants to avoid further escalation into a larger war, pointing to the urgent need to restore security at the Lebanese-Israeli border and for residents to return to their homes. He added that the conflict along the border has lasted long enough and ending this conflict now would be in everyone’s interest. He said this would be achievable through a diplomatic path if both parties agreed.

Hochstein emphasized to both parties that the Biden administration wants to avoid further escalation

Maria Maalouf

Simultaneously, the US affirmed its provision of security support to Israel, which could serve as a deterrent to Hezbollah. American officials, including National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and White House Middle East Coordinator Brett McGurk, reassured a delegation of senior Israeli officials who visited Washington recently that, if a full-scale war broke out between Israel and Hezbollah, the Biden administration was fully prepared to support its ally, although it would not deploy American troops on the ground in such a scenario. These personal assurances came as cross-border attacks between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah increased, raising fears of another full-blown conflict in the Middle East.

Since the outbreak of the Israeli war on Gaza on Oct. 7, Hezbollah’s provocations against Israel have continued, escalating in recent weeks. The Biden administration has repeatedly stated that it does not want another war on Israel’s northern front and has urged de-escalation.

On June 24, the US administration presented a proposal that included a diplomatic solution to reduce tensions between Hezbollah and Israel, establishing a buffer zone on the border. The US is striving to reach an agreement between the two sides that includes Hezbollah’s withdrawal from the border area and repositioning north of the Litani River, about 30 km away from the border with Israel. Hezbollah has rejected this option, insisting that its fight against Israel will continue until a ceasefire is implemented in Gaza. Israeli and American officials are trying to find an alternative that does not amount to a ceasefire in Gaza, which does not seem imminent.

American officials have expressed concern about several scenarios, believing that Israel’s recent strikes inside Lebanese territory might be paving the way for a major offensive by the Israeli army and that Hezbollah might respond with larger rocket attacks on Israel. These officials are increasingly worried that Israel could initiate a war against Hezbollah in Lebanon — a war Israel cannot end without American support.

Some officials are also concerned about the scale of Hezbollah’s attacks, which could lead to unintended consequences, forcing Israel to respond and potentially triggering all-out war. An American official mentioned that Israeli forces in the northern command are training in brigade-sized units but are not yet in a position to start an offensive.

If a full-scale war breaks out between Israel and Hezbollah, the latter, as an Iran-backed armed group, could potentially overwhelm Israel’s air defenses in the north, including the Iron Dome missile defense system. This would make full US support for Israel even more crucial. Furthermore, American officials are worried that, without a ceasefire in Gaza, the likelihood of war between Israel and Hezbollah will increase, significantly worsening the regional crisis and drawing the US deeper into the conflict.

The increasing cross-border attacks between Israel and Hezbollah make it difficult for the US to ease tensions

Maria Maalouf

The threat posed by Hezbollah to Israel, which is the most important US ally in the region, has become a significant political issue, with many Israelis who were evacuated from their homes in the north still displaced. The increasing cross-border attacks between Israel and Hezbollah make it difficult for the US to ease tensions in the region, especially if the Biden administration’s efforts to mediate a hostage deal and a ceasefire in Gaza continue to falter. The White House sees the ceasefire talks and the tensions between Israel and Hezbollah as highly complex, given that both sides have miscalculated with their escalation of rhetoric and the intensity of their attacks, while believing they can still avoid a full-scale war.

Assessing the chances of success for the aforementioned American efforts involves considering several factors, including disagreements between the American and Israeli sides on some issues. American officials have revealed that the disagreement between Netanyahu and President Joe Biden’s administration over withholding weapons from Israel will hinder US-Israeli diplomatic efforts to calm tensions at the Lebanese border and avoid war with Hezbollah.

There is no doubt that Netanyahu’s actions could create a crisis between the allies, leading to a further erosion of Israel’s deterrent power in the region, especially in the eyes of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. In an address to the Knesset, Netanyahu promised to bring back all the hostages and emphasized that the war would not end until this goal was achieved, along with the elimination of Hamas and the safe return of southern and northern residents to their homes.

Some observers believe that any agreement with Hezbollah will be temporary and Hezbollah and Iran’s long-term strategy will remain unchanged. Therefore, the success of any diplomatic path, even temporarily, requires offering incentives to Hezbollah, such as agreeing on a defined border line. Both the US and Israel face a significant challenge, given that Hezbollah’s primary goal, since its inception, has been the removal of Israel. Recent developments suggest that American diplomatic efforts might encounter significant obstacles as long as the military operations and assassinations continue.

In conclusion, the situation seems to be heading toward a full-scale armed conflict if a settlement is not reached between the parties involved, particularly with Hezbollah linking its offensive operations against northern Israel to events in Gaza. This means that escalating the conflict into a full-scale war would undermine US mediation efforts, potentially diminishing Washington’s influence, as has happened in recent weeks when Netanyahu insisted on continuing with Israel’s military operations in Gaza.

• Maria Maalouf is a Lebanese journalist, broadcaster, publisher, and writer. X: @bilarakib