Iran presidential election: Jalili, Pezeshkian go head-to-head amid voter apathy

Since none of the four candidates managed to secure more than 50 percent of the vote in last week’s presidential election first round, Iran will hold a runoff on Friday. This second round will be a contest between reformist lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian and ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili. As the country prepares for this critical vote, there are several important takeaways from the presidential election so far.

The favored candidate of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is clearly the hard-liner Jalili, who served as senior director of policy planning in the Office of the Supreme Leader for several years. Jalili’s close association with Khamenei and his hard-line stance align with the ideological preferences of both the supreme leader and the IRGC.

This favoritism is further highlighted by Khamenei’s indirect warning against Pezeshkian, who has advocated for improved relations with Western countries, including the US. Khamenei issued a cautionary statement suggesting that anyone who believes “all ways to progress” come from the US should not be supported. This remark was a clear rebuke of Pezeshkian’s stance and signaled the supreme leader’s preference for a candidate like Jalili, who opposes rapprochement with the West and adheres to a more conservative, isolationist approach.

Pezeshkian has been attempting to capture the essence of past campaigns led by notable reformists such as Mohammed Khatami by adopting similar symbols and messages and focusing on nationalism and patriotic appeal, rather than religious themes.

The record low turnout in the first round reflects a deep-seated disillusionment among the populace

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Nevertheless, in spite of Khamenei’s emphatic call for “maximum” voter turnout, last week’s first round saw the lowest turnout in the history of the Islamic Republic, with only 40 percent of eligible voters participating. This historically low turnout is particularly notable given the extensive efforts made by the government to encourage voter participation and stress its importance. The 40 percent participation rate marks a significant decline from the previous record low, which was set during the last presidential election in 2021. Then, Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in May, secured victory on a turnout of 48 percent. Azita, a student at Tehran University, said to me: “Why should I waste my time and vote? What difference is it going to make?”

This low turnout has several meanings. Firstly, it reflects a deep-seated disillusionment among the populace with the Islamic Republic, most likely indicating a lack of confidence in the efficacy and fairness of the electoral process. It also suggests a significant disconnect between the Iranian government and the country’s citizens, as the calls for high participation by the leadership did not resonate with a substantial portion of the electorate.

Furthermore, this low level of voter engagement may also be seen as a form of silent protest — a way for people to express their dissatisfaction with the status quo and the current social, economic and political situation without resorting to more direct forms of dissent.

In addition, it underscores potential issues of political apathy and disenfranchisement, particularly among younger and more urban voters, who may feel that their voices are not being heard or that the outcome of the election will not bring about meaningful change. The low turnout is also having an impact on the perceived legitimacy of the elected officials, as a mandate secured by such a small percentage of the population can be viewed as less representative and less authoritative.

Another important issue is that this election recorded the lowest turnout in the history of the Islamic Republic despite the presence of a so-called reformist candidate, Pezeshkian, who was presumably approved by the Guardian Council specifically to boost voter turnout. Historically, reformists and moderates have been able to generate excitement among the populace, drawing people to the ballot boxes with the promise of change and progress.

The electorate’s indifferent response indicates that many Iranians are skeptical about the possibility of meaningful change

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Nevertheless, this trend appears to have declined, indicating a significant shift in public sentiment. The fact that not even the inclusion of a reformist candidate could galvanize the electorate suggests that many people have lost hope that any political faction, including the reformists, can bring about meaningful change.

This pervasive sense of disillusionment implies that a substantial portion of the population now views reformists, moderates and hard-liners as essentially indistinguishable from one another. This convergence in perception points to a broader and more profound crisis of confidence in the political system as a whole, with promises of reform and moderation no longer enough to inspire voter participation or belief in the possibility of substantive improvements.

In conclusion, although Pezeshkian appears to have a better chance of winning the presidential election than the hard-liners’ favored candidate, Jalili, there is a palpable lack of enthusiasm and hope among the Iranian populace regarding both candidates and the election as a whole. This apathy suggests a deep-seated disillusionment with the political process and the candidates themselves.

Despite Pezeshkian’s potentially stronger position, the electorate’s indifferent response indicates that many Iranians are skeptical about the possibility of meaningful change, regardless of who is elected. The widespread disinterest and lack of optimism reflect broader concerns about the efficacy of the political system and the ability of any candidate to address the country’s pressing issues. Consequently, this election cycle is marked by a pervasive sense of resignation, as voters seemingly feel that neither Pezeshkian nor Jalili — and even the election itself — hold the promise of significant progress or improvement in their lives.

• Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh