Egypt shows signs of business growth as PMI hits 49.9 in June
Egypt shows signs of business growth as PMI hits 49.9 in June /node/2543256/business-economy
Egypt shows signs of business growth as PMI hits 49.9 in June
The S&P Global report highlighted that the manufacturing and services sectors witnessed a rise in new orders in June, while the construction, wholesale and retail industries saw a decline in the month. Shutterstock
Egypt shows signs of business growth as PMI hits 49.9 in June
Updated 04 July 2024
Arab News
RIYADH: Non-oil companies in Egypt saw sales growth for the first time in nearly three years, as the Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 49.9 in June from 49.6 in May.
According to S&P Global, this rise in the index, just fractionally below the 50 mark, was driven by government policy moves that supported a relaxation of price pressures, ultimately showing signs of economic stability in the country.
Egypt’s non-oil sector has been facing headwinds over the past few years, with the country battling economic shocks due to the crisis in neighboring Gaza, currency pressure, and the Suez Canal disruption, the US-based credit rating agency said in its previous reports.
“Egypt’s non-oil economy ended the first half of 2024 on a high according to the latest PMI data. With the headline PMI reaching 49.9 and total new order volumes rising for the first time in nearly three years, businesses appear to be heading on the road to recovery,” said David Owen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
S&P Global noted that any PMI reading above 50 indicates growth in the non-oil sector, while readings below 50 signal contraction.
The report further noted that the country’s output levels fell at the softest rate in nearly three years, while the volume of input purchases rose for the first time since December 2021.
Moreover, input cost inflation remained soft despite accelerating to a three-month high in June, leading to another modest rise in selling charges.
Additionally, business intakes at non-oil firms in Egypt rose for the first time since August 2021, as the proportion of firms seeing demand improvement started to outweigh those seeing a reduction.
“Although output levels continued to fall on average, they were also close to growth territory, as business capacity was helped by a fresh increase in the buying of inputs. If we see further rises in sales and purchases in the second half of this year, firms should have the motivation and need to expand their output,” said Owen.
He added: “Another positive is that price pressures have remained much cooler than in the first quarter of this year during the country’s foreign currency crisis.”
The report highlighted that the manufacturing and services sectors witnessed a rise in new orders in June, while the construction, wholesale and retail industries saw a decline in the month.
Moreover, employment numbers across the Egyptian non-oil economy were relatively stable in June.
Even though some firms opted to boost their workforces amidst rising sales, many companies reported layoffs and the non-replacement of leavers, the report added.
The data for June also revealed that inflationary pressures on businesses had been greatly suppressed in the second quarter of the year.
“While June saw the fastest rise in input prices for three months, firms generally commented that this was due to a high degree of volatility in market prices rather than an accelerating inflation trend,” concluded Owen.
Investment task force meeting heralds new era for India-Saudi Arabia trade relationship
PIF has been invited to open an office in India in a bid to get investment flowing
Updated 02 August 2024
Nirmal Narayanan
RIYADH: Trade and economic relations between India and Saudi Arabia have taken another step forward after the countries’ inaugural High-Level Task Force on Investments was held earlier this week.
The body was set up in 2023 when the Kingdom’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman made an official visit to the Asian nation – a visit that came four years after he pledged investments worth $100 billion in India during a trip to New Delhi.
The first meeting of the task force was held virtually on July 30, and was co-chaired by Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman and PK Mishra, principal secretary to the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
During the talk, India invited Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund to establish an office in the Asian nation, as it seeks to attract funds from the Kingdom.
“Constructive discussions were held on various opportunities for bilateral investments in diverse areas in public and private sector, including refining and petrochemical plants, new and renewable energy, power, telecom, innovation, among others,” said India’s prime minister’s office in a statement after the High-Level Task Force meeting.
The statement further stated that an empowered delegation led by the country’s Petroleum Secretary will visit Saudi Arabia for follow-up discussions on the mutually beneficial investment in the oil and gas sector.
Both countries also agreed to regular consultations between their technical teams to take forward the discussions and reach an agreement on specific investments.
India also invited the Saudi energy minister to visit New Delhi for the next round of High-Level Task Force meetings.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, India’s President Ram Nath Kovind, center,and Indian leader Narendra Modi at a ceremonial reception in 2019. (AFP)
India and Saudi Arabia: A history of long-standing relationship
Even though India and Saudi Arabia have been sharing strong economic and trade relations since 1947, their bilateral ties took a new turn after the signing of the Delhi Declaration in 2006.
It was followed by the Riyadh Declaration in 2010 when then-Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh visited Saudi Arabia, elevating the bilateral relationship to a strategic partnership between both nations.
Later, the visit of Modi to Saudi Arabia in 2016 captured the spirit of enhanced cooperation in the political, economic, security and defense realms between Riyadh and New Delhi.
When the crown prince visited India in 2023, on the sidelines of the G20 Leaders’ Summit and to co-chair the first Leaders’ Meeting of the India-Saudi Arabia Strategic Partnership Council, both countries signed eight agreements across several fields including energy, banking, and investment, as well as manufacturing, archival cooperation, anti-corruption and water desalination.
Apart from the growing economic and trade ties, India and Saudi Arabia also share a strong emotional and cultural relationship, with the Kingdom being the most sought-after destination for Indian talents and religious tourists.
Data from the Indian embassy in Riyadh revealed that more than 2.65 million Indians are living in Saudi Arabia, who act as a “living bridge between the two countries.”
The embassy also added that India-Saudi Arabia cultural cooperation has also been expanding in the novel areas of cinema and entertainment, sports activities such as cricket and football and tourism exchange in recent years.
Latest trade statistics between Saudi Arabia and India
According to data from the Consulate General of India in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia is the Asian country’s fourth-largest trade partner, while India is the Kingdom’s second-largest trade partner.
The Consulate General of India also acknowledges that Saudi Arabia is not just a trading partner, but a “major pillar for its energy security and an important economic partner for investments, joint ventures, and transfer of technology projects.”
Data from the General Authority for Statistics reveal that Saudi Arabia’s exports to India in 2023 stood at SR113.35 billion ($30.20 billion), while the Kingdom’s imports to the Asian nation amounted to SR43.57 billion.
In 2023, Saudi Arabia was the third largest crude exporter to India, amounting to 39.5 million tonnes, accounting for 16.7 percent of the country’s total oil imports.
Another report released by GASTAT in July noted that Saudi Arabia’s outgoing shipments to India were worth SR8.03 billion in May.
In terms of non-oil exports, the Kingdom exported goods worth SR2.23 billion in May, with chemical and allied products leading the chart with shipments valued at SR1.27 billion.
Saudi Arabia also exported plastic and rubber products to India totaling SR448 million in the same month, while outgoing shipments of base metals accounted for SR347.8 million.
On the import side, shipments worth SR3.54 billion from India reached Saudi Arabia in May.
Mechanical equipment and electrical appliances were the most imported goods from India to the Kingdom in May totaling SR886.1 million.
In the same month, India exported chemical and allied products worth SR470.4 million, followed by plant products and base metals at SR580.3 million and SR342.2 million, respectively.
Developments in the tourism sector
Apart from trade relations, India and Saudi Arabia also share strong ties in the tourism sector.
Over 1.5 million Indian tourists visited the Kingdom in 2023, representing a rise of 50 percent compared to the previous year, according to the Saudi Tourism Authority.
In a bid to elevate the number of Indian tourists visiting the Kingdom, the STA organized networking events in Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Bengaluru, and Delhi and interacted with travel trade associations in February.
The STA, as a part of its broader tourism strategy, aims to bring in 7.5 million Indian visitors over the next seven years.
Data from the Indian Ministry of External Affairs reveals that more than 170,000 Indian pilgrims performed Hajj in 2024, marking a significant increase from 139,000 and 57,000 in 2023 and 2022, respectively.
The air connectivity between Saudi Arabia and India has also increased by 31 percent between 2019 and 2023. Flights now connect 12 major hubs in India with Saudi cities including Riyadh, Jeddah, and Dammam.
The growth of Saudi Arabia as a global tourist destination is fueled by the Kingdom’s giga-projects such as NEOM, along with developments in areas surrounding Alula, Diriyah and the Red Sea.
India is also emerging as a favorite destination for tourists from Saudi Arabia.
A report released by travel app Wego in July revealed that Saudi Arabia emerged as the top five sources of travelers from the Middle East region to India.
The analysis noted that routes from Riyadh to New Delhi and Riyadh to Lucknow were the most popular among Middle East travelers during the first half of this year.
“The findings suggest a dynamic travel landscape where India remains a key destination for both leisure and business travelers from across the globe, driven by various factors such as tourism, business ventures, and familial connections,” said Bernard Corraya, general manager of Wego India office.
Dubai’s residential property sales surge more than 33%, reports brokerage firm
Updated 02 August 2024
Arab News
RIYADH: Dubai’s residential property sales saw a 33.5 percent annual increase in the first half of 2024 with 77,233 transactions, according to a top brokerage company.
The Gulf metropolis also recorded a total sales value of 227 billion dinars ($61.8 billion), – up 31 percent compared to the first half of 2023, according to a press release from Engel & Volkers Middle East.
The firm said the market has continued its impressive growth trajectory, breaking records and setting new benchmarks.
The brokerage house explained that key infrastructure projects, including the $8 billion drainage system, the $35 billion Al-Maktoum International Airport expansion, and the $5 billion Dubai Metro Blue Line, underscore Dubai’s commitment to growth and development.
With Dubai’s population growing by over 100,000 annually and the economy projected to expand by four percent in 2024, the real estate market outlook remains positive.
Reflecting on these achievements, Daniel Hadi, CEO of Engel & Volkers Middle East, said that the first half of 2024 has been impressive for Dubai’s residential real estate market.
“The unprecedented growth in sales transactions and value is a testament to Dubai’s resilience, strategic infrastructure investments, and its appeal to global investors. As we look ahead, we are optimistic about the sustained growth and transformation of this dynamic market,” Hadi added.
The growth underscores the robust demand and investor confidence in Dubai’s real estate market, as per the firm, which added that the off-plan market drove over 60 percent of all transactions, reflecting strong investor interest in new developments due to their availability, competitive pricing, flexible payment plans, and high return potential.
Popular communities such as Jumeirah Village Circle, Dubai South, and Damac Hills 2 stood out for their affordability, modern amenities, and strategic locations.
During this period, apartments were the primary driver of growth, contributing 91 percent of the increase in transactions. Their affordability, availability, and higher returns fueled significant demand, with apartment sales comprising over 80 percent of all transactions and rising by 41 percent year-on-year.
The total transaction value increased by 33 percent, with Jumeirah Village Circle remaining the most popular community for both off-plan and secondary transactions, driven by its affordable prices, steady supply of new projects, and attractive returns for investors.
The Business Bay also continued to be in high demand, highlighting its importance in the market, the company, which is also specialized in the brokerage of commercial real estate, yachts and aircrafts, said the Engel & Volkers Middle East release.
It further stated that while the villa segment remains relatively small, it experienced significant growth in the first half of 2024, with transactions up 52 percent year-on-year and total sales value rising by 66 percent. This surge reflects demand from families seeking spacious homes and buyers looking for prime properties.
The market’s resilience was evident after the April floods, with May surpassing the previous monthly transaction record by 20 percent.
Dubai’s luxury real estate segment continues to thrive, with a 47 percent year-on-year increase in transactions.
The UAE is expected to be the largest recipient of millionaires globally in 2024, driving demand for opulent villas and branded residences.
GCC investors expected to spend over $4bn annually in UK commercial property market: BLME
Updated 02 August 2024
Arab News
RIYADH: Gulf Cooperation Council-based investors are expected to commit over $4 billion annually in the UK commercial property market due to favorable economic conditions, according to a new report.
An analysis by the UK-based Shariah-compliant financial institution Bank of London and The Middle East shows that this funding surge can be attributed to several factors, including falling interest rates and lower property prices, which enhance the attractiveness of UK assets.
In 2023 alone, GCC investors – led primarily by those from the UAE and Saudi Arabia – poured $2.35 billion into UK real estate.
Andy Thomson, head of real estate finance and private banking at BLME, said: “The UK has a new government in place, the Brexit decision from 2016 is firmly in the back mirror and the economy and political landscapes have relatively stable outlook compared to other countries in Europe.
“In addition, interest rates are forecast to fall during 2024 and 2025, which coupled with lower commercial property prices means the UK is very well placed to attract an increased level of inward investment from the GCC.”
The report proved prescient as after it was published the Bank of England cut interest rates for the first time since 2020 – dropping the base rate by 0.25 percentage points to 5 percent.
According to BLME’s research, 87 percent of interviewees identified falling interest rates as a crucial factor for increased GCC investor interest over the next year.
There is also a growing opportunity for backers to realize a “green premium” by upgrading assets to meet new environmental standards.
Sustainable buildings are increasingly valued higher, with a sales price premium of 8-18 percent for green-rated properties compared to their non-green counterparts.
Additionally, demographic shifts and a persistent undersupply of residential properties are making the living sector more attractive.
Investment in purpose-built student accommodation is particularly popular due to the rising number of scholars from the Gulf region attending British universities. Currently, over 8,000 UAE residents are studying in the UK, nearly double the number from five years ago.
Director of Real Estate Finance at BLME, Rashid Khan-Gandapur, said that GCC investors are looking to diversify their portfolios and see the UK market as ripe with opportunities to enhance existing building stock, especially through improving environmental, social and governance credentials.
“Investment in UK commercial properties as a whole is expected to grow to over $4 billion annually. This figure will be boosted further by investment in the residential sector, with GCC investors showing a growing appetite for undertaking large-scale living sector investments,” he added.
The report is based on an online survey conducted between April 26 and June 5, involving 16 GCC investment experts, and in-depth virtual interviews with nine of these contacts.
Oil Updates – prices set for fourth weekly fall as demand concerns weigh
Updated 02 August 2024
Reuters
NEW YORK/SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose on Friday but were set for a fourth successive weekly decline, as signs of disappointing global fuel demand growth outweighed fears of supply disruptions.
Brent crude futures gained 62 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $80.13 a barrel by 6:45 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 62 cents to $76.93.
Both benchmarks have declined about 7.3 percent over the last four weeks in the longest streak of consecutive weekly losses this year.
Disappointing economic data from top oil importer China and a survey showing weaker manufacturing activity across Asia, Europe and the US raised the risk of an underpowered global economic recovery that would weigh on oil consumption.
“China’s road traffic saw a seasonal decline for the third consecutive year,” analysts at ANZ said in a note. “Weaker US economic data suggested weakening oil demand prospects.”
Falling manufacturing activity in China also inhibited prices, adding to concerns about demand growth after June data showed imports and refinery activity were lower than last year.
Asia’s crude oil imports dropped in July to the lowest in two years, sapped by weak demand in China and India, data from LSEG Oil Research showed.
Oil investors are also cautiously watching developments in the Middle East, where the killing of senior leaders of Iran-aligned militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah stoked fears that the region could be on the brink of all-out war, threatening to disrupt supplies.
“Heightened geopolitical tensions were reflected in a rising premium for call options as traders are taking a view that prices will rise,” ANZ said, adding that Brent call option contract purchases rose to the highest volume since April.
“Oil three-month implied volatility rose to 26.6 percent from a low of 22.6 percent in mid-July.”
World Bank report proposes strategy for countries to achieve high-income status
World Bank introduces a ‘3i strategy’ for countries to achieve high-income status
Figure falls within the range classified as ‘middle income’ by the World Bank
Updated 02 August 2024
Arab News
RIYADH: Over 100 countries, including major economies like China, India, Brazil, and South Africa, face significant challenges that could impede their efforts to achieve high-income status in the coming decades.
This is according to a new World Bank study, which presents the first comprehensive roadmap to help developing countries escape the so-called “middle-income trap.”
It introduces a “3i strategy” for countries to achieve high-income status.
The report titled “The World Development Report 2024: The Middle Income Trap” reveals that as countries become wealthier, they often encounter a “trap” when their gross domestic product per capita reaches about 10 percent of annual US GDP per person—approximately $8,000 today.
This figure falls within the range classified as “middle income” by the World Bank. Since 1990, only 34 middle-income economies have transitioned to high-income status, with more than a third of these countries benefiting from either EU integration or previously undiscovered oil reserves.
“The battle for global economic prosperity will largely be won or lost in middle-income countries,” said Indermit Gill, chief economist of the World Bank Group and senior vice president for Development Economics.
By the end of 2023, 108 countries were classified as middle-income, with annual GDP per capita ranging from $1,136 to $13,845. These nations are home to 6 billion people—75 percent of the global population—and account for two-thirds of the world’s extreme poverty. They also generate over 40 percent of global GDP and more than 60 percent of carbon emissions.
These countries now face even greater challenges than their predecessors in overcoming the middle-income trap, including rapidly aging populations, rising protectionism in advanced economies, and the urgent need for an accelerated energy transition.
“Too many of these countries rely on outmoded strategies to become advanced economies. They depend just on investment for too long—or they switch prematurely to innovation. A fresh approach is needed: first focus on investment; then add an emphasis on infusion of new technologies from abroad; and, finally, adopt a three-pronged strategy that balances investment, infusion, and innovation. With growing demographic, ecological, and geopolitical pressures, there is no room for error,” Gill said.
Depending on their stage of development, countries need to adopt a sequenced and progressively sophisticated mix of policies.
“The road ahead won’t be easy, but it’s possible for countries to make progress even in today’s challenging conditions,” said Somik V. Lall, director of the 2024 World Development Report. “Success will depend on how well societies balance the forces of creation, preservation, and destruction. Countries that try to spare their citizenry the pains associated with reforms and openness will miss out on the gains that come from sustained growth.”
