The reasons behind the thawing of ties between Ankara and Damascus

ANKARA: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has signaled a possible restoration of relations with Syria’s Assad regime in a surprising move that marks a significant departure from years of hostility between the two nations.

Erdogan’s comments, which were made after Friday prayers, suggest a willingness to revive diplomatic ties with Damascus, emphasizing historical precedent and family ties as potential foundations for future engagement.

“There is no reason why it should not happen,” Erdogan said.

“Just as we kept our relations very lively in the past, we even had talks between our families with Assad. It is certainly not possible to say that this will not happen in the future. It can happen; the Syrian people are our brothers.”

The Turkish leader’s comments echo similar sentiments recently expressed by Syrian President Bashar Assad, who has indicated his willingness to pursue steps toward normalization, provided they respect Syria’s sovereignty and contribute to counter-terrorism efforts.

The remarks came during a meeting with Alexander Lavrentiev, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy to Syria.

The concurrent statements are seen as part of a broader effort to reconcile Ankara and Damascus, but the path to rapprochement remains fraught with uncertainty and complexity.

Erdogan, then prime minister of Turkiye, hosted Assad in 2009 for a family holiday in the Aegean resort of Bodrum, and they enjoyed amicable visits to nurture their friendship.

But since severing all ties with the Assad regime in 2011, Turkiye has been a vocal supporter of his opponents in Syria and called for the ousting of Assad from power.

Ankara’s involvement has escalated with several cross-border military operations and the establishment of a safe zone in northern Syria, in which Turkish troops are stationed.

The Turkish and Syrian foreign ministers met in Moscow last year, marking the highest-level contact between the two countries since the start of the Syrian Civil War.

But the talks, along with an earlier meeting between the two countries’ defense ministers, did not bring about any change in bilateral relations.

Oytun Orhan, coordinator of Levant studies at the Ankara-based think tank ORSAM, says there is a glimmer of hope for a resumption of the dialogue process.

He told Arab News: “There have been some developments in recent weeks. It is said that Turkish and Syrian officials could meet in Baghdad with the mediation of Iraq, and surprising developments in Turkish-Syrian relations are expected in the coming period.”

Efforts were being made to bring the parties together, he added.

Orhan believes that with Russia’s softening position in Ukraine, the Kremlin has begun to pay more attention to Turkish-Syrian relations, and the Gaza conflict also requires new regional dynamics and presents new security challenges for the Assad regime, which necessitates closer Turkish-Syrian relations.

He said: “Discussions about a possible US withdrawal after the upcoming presidential elections are another factor to consider.”

The Assad regime has recently been in talks with the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units and “is trying to corner Turkiye by signaling that it could reach an agreement with the YPG if Turkiye does not accept its conditions, while at the same time opening channels with Turkiye,” he added.

Ankara considers the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, or YPG, a terrorist group closely linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which has been waging a decades-long insurgency in southeast Turkiye.

Experts say that both parties are trying to consolidate their positions in line with regional changes and consider their red lines for domestic security concerns.

But Orhan does not expect Turkish troops to withdraw in the short term, and added: “First, there may be an agreement between the parties on how to deal with the YPG.

“At that point Turkiye may have to take some steps regarding its relationship with the opposition. However, there will not be a situation where the Syrian opposition is completely abandoned or its support is cut off. A gradual road map can be agreed.”

Orhan expects that a mechanism of guarantees involving Russia or even Iran could be agreed upon for a road map for withdrawal from Syria.

He said: “Gradual steps will be taken based on criteria such as the complete elimination of the PKK/YPG threat and the creation of conditions for the safe return of Syrian refugees to their country.

“A common will against the PKK is not very likely at this stage because the Syrian regime still wants to use the YPG as a trump card against Turkiye. It believes that after a possible US withdrawal, it can reach an agreement with the YPG and solve this problem with minor concessions.”

Experts believe a partnership between Ankara and Damascus, like the one between Iraq and Turkiye, is unlikely at the moment.

But Orhan believes common ground can be found in the fight against the PKK, depending on the gradual steps taken by Turkiye.

He said: “Instead of a joint military operation, Turkiye’s continued military moves against the YPG, followed by an agreement on areas that Syrian regime forces can retake and control, can be agreed upon.”

Turkiye currently hosts 3.1 million Syrian refugees, according to official figures. One of Ankara’s expectations from a possible rapprochement between Turkiye and Syria would be the safe return of these refugees to their homeland.

Orhan said: “The return of Syrian refugees can only be possible after a lasting solution in Syria.

“It is a long-term, difficult problem to solve. From the Assad regime’s point of view, it sees this as a bargaining chip and a burden on Turkiye’s shoulders.”

He added that the return of Syrian refugees was also seen as providing a risk factor for the Assad regime.

The refugees are seen as “people who fled the country, and it is questionable how willing Assad is to repatriate them,” said Orhan.

Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and current chairman of the Istanbul-based think tank EDAM, has spoken of the profound shifts in regional security dynamics in the wake of the war in Gaza and amid uncertainties surrounding US policy in the Middle East, particularly in Syria.

He told Arab News: “For Syria, which now faces an even more unpredictable security environment, this forces the Syrian leadership to reassess its position for negotiations with Turkiye in response to the evolving geopolitical realities.”

Ulgen believes that from Turkiye’s point of view, this represents a potentially favorable opportunity, provided that Syria is willing to reconsider the terms of engagement that have so far prevented meaningful dialogue.

He added: “Until now, these conditions have been a major obstacle to starting a substantive negotiation process.”

Ulgen said that Syria’s willingness to revise these conditions will be crucial in determining whether formal negotiations can begin.

He added: “The critical question now is whether Damascus will stick to its preconditions, some of which may prove untenable, such as the demand for an immediate withdrawal of Turkish troops from border areas.”

Progress in reconciliation efforts would depend on the lifting of such conditions, Ulgen said.