How the Biden-Trump debate could change the trajectory of the 2024 campaign

Analysis How the Biden-Trump debate could change the trajectory of the 2024 campaign
People mingle in the CNN Spin Room ahead of a CNN Presidential Debate on June 27, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. (AFP)
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Updated 28 June 2024
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How the Biden-Trump debate could change the trajectory of the 2024 campaign

How the Biden-Trump debate could change the trajectory of the 2024 campaign

ATLANTA: President Joe Biden and his Republican rival, Donald Trump, will meet for a debate on Thursday that offers an unparalleled opportunity for both candidates to try to reshape the political narrative.

Biden, the Democratic incumbent, gets the chance to reassure voters that, at 81, he’s capable of guiding the US through a range of challenges. The 78-year-old Trump, meanwhile, could use the moment to try to move past his felony conviction in New York and convince an audience of tens of millions that he’s temperamentally suited to return to the Oval Office.

Biden and Trump enter the night facing fierce headwinds, including a public weary of the tumult of partisan politics. Both candidates are disliked by majorities of Americans, according to polling, and offer sharply different visions on virtually every core issue. Trump has promised sweeping plans to remake the US government if he returns to the White House and Biden argues that his opponent would pose an existential threat to the nation’s democracy.

With just over four months until Election Day, their performances have the rare potential to alter the trajectory of the race. Every word and gesture will be parsed not just for what both men say but how they interact with each other and how they hold up under pressure.

“Debates tend not to change voters’ perception in ways that change their vote: They ordinarily reinforce, not persuade,” said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, the director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania and an expert on presidential communications. “What makes this debate different is that you have in essence two incumbents about whom voters have very well-formed views. But that doesn’t mean that those perceptions are right or match what voters will see on stage.”

The debate marks a series of firsts

Trump and Biden haven’t been on the same stage or even spoken since their last debate weeks before the 2020 presidential election. Trump skipped Biden’s inauguration after leading an unprecedented and unsuccessful effort to overturn his loss to Biden that culminated in the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection by his supporters.

Thursday’s broadcast on CNN will be the earliest general election debate in history. It’s the first-ever televised general election presidential debate hosted by a single news outlet after both campaigns ditched the bipartisan Commission on Presidential Debates, which had organized every matchup since 1988.

Under the network’s rules, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. did not qualify.

Aiming to avoid a repeat of their chaotic 2020 matchups, Biden insisted — and Trump agreed — to hold the debate without an audience and to allow the network to mute the candidates’ microphones when it is not their turn to speak. There will be two commercial breaks, another departure from modern practice. The candidates have agreed not to consult staff or others while the cameras are off.

The timing follows moves by both candidates to respond to nationwide trends toward early voting by shifting forward the political calendar. It remains to be seen whether the advanced schedule will dampen the effects of any missteps or crystallize them in the public’s mind.

“You have two men that have not debated in four years,” said Phillippe Reines, a Democratic political consultant who helped former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton prepare for debates with Trump in 2016.

Biden and Trump, he said, “don’t like each other, haven’t seen each other, (are) pretty rusty heading into the biggest night of their lives. That about sums up what’s at stake on Thursday.”

Both sides recognize the stakes

The debate falls days after the second anniversary of the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, ending a federally guaranteed right to abortion and pushing reproductive rights into the center of politics ever since.

The faceoff also occurs just after the Biden White House took executive action to restrict asylum claims at the US-Mexico border in an effort to lower the number of migrants entering the country. Trump has made illegal immigration a centerpiece of his campaign.

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza loom over the race, as do the candidates’ sharply differing views about America’s role in the world and its alliances. Differences on inflation, tax policy and government investment to build infrastructure and fight climate change will provide further contrasts.

Also in the political background: The Supreme Court is on the brink of announcing its decision on whether Trump is legally immune for his alleged role in the Jan. 6 insurrection. That’s weeks after Trump was convicted in New York of taking part in a hush money scheme that prosecutors alleged was intended to unlawfully influence the 2016 election.

Biden spent the week leading up to the debate secluded at Camp David with senior White House and campaign aides as well as a coterie of longtime advisers and allies. A mock stage was built at the compound to simulate the studio where the debate will be held, and Biden’s personal attorney, Bob Bauer, was reprising his role as Trump in practice sessions.

Aides say the work reflects Biden’s understanding that he can’t afford a flat showing. They insist the sometimes stodgy orator would rise to the occasion.

“You know this president,” said White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre Thursday. “He likes to fight.”

Trump, meanwhile, has continued his more unstructured debate prep with two days of meetings at his Florida estate, phoning allies and supporters, and road-testing attacks in social media postings and in interviews with conservative-leaning outlets. The unorganized style that is a hallmark of the former president’s often-rambling rally speeches could present a challenge in the regimented, tightly timed debate format.

Trump and his aides have spent months chronicling what they argue are signs of Biden’s diminished stamina. In recent days, they’ve started to predict Biden will be stronger on Thursday, aiming to raise expectations for the incumbent.

The candidates have Georgia on their mind

Atlanta, the debate’s host city, offers symbolic and practical meaning for the campaign, but each side believes that what happens there will resonate far and wide.

In 2020, Biden secured Georgia’s 16 electoral votes with a margin of less than 12,000 votes out of 5 million cast. Trump pushed the state’s Republican leadership to overturn his victory based on false theories of voter fraud, memorably being caught on tape saying he wanted to “find 11,780 votes.” He now faces state racketeering charges.

Both campaigns held a flurry of events in Atlanta leading into the debate, including competing events at Black-owned local businesses. Trump called in Friday to a gathering at Rocky’s Barbershop in the Buckhead community to talk about his matchup with Biden and question whether CNN moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash would treat him fairly.

Heading out of the debate, both Biden and Trump will travel to states they hope to swing their way this fall. Trump is heading to Virginia, a onetime battleground that has shifted toward Democrats in recent years.

Biden is set to jet off to North Carolina, where he is expected to hold the largest-yet rally of his campaign in a state Trump narrowly carried in 2020.


Family mourns Bangladeshi man killed by Israeli strike in Lebanon

Family mourns Bangladeshi man killed by Israeli strike in Lebanon
Updated 16 sec ago
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Family mourns Bangladeshi man killed by Israeli strike in Lebanon

Family mourns Bangladeshi man killed by Israeli strike in Lebanon
  • Mohammad Nizam, 31, was killed on Saturday afternoon on his way to work in Beirut
  • Death toll from Israeli attacks on Lebanon has surged to nearly 3,000 people

DHAKA: The family of a Bangladeshi worker who died in an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon said on Sunday that Tel Aviv was the only one responsible for his death and called for an immediate stop to the war raging in the Middle East.

There are between 70,000 and 100,000 Bangladeshi nationals in Lebanon, many working as laborers or domestic workers, according to estimates from the Bangladeshi Foreign Ministry.

Mohammad Nizam, 31, was killed on Saturday afternoon as he stopped at a coffee shop on the way to work in Beirut, Bangladesh’s Ambassador to Lebanon Javed Tanveer Khan said in a statement.

Mohammad Nizam, 31, was killed on Saturday afternoon in Beirut. (Supplied)

“Israel is solely responsible for the death of my brother. This war should be stopped without any delay,” Nizam’s older brother, Mohammad Jalal, told Arab News.

“Since the beginning of recent Israeli attacks in Lebanon, I have been worried about Nizam’s safety. But I couldn’t imagine this tragic end to my brother’s life. If I could have sensed this outcome even a little bit, I would have brought him back at any cost.”

The death toll from Israel’s attacks on Lebanon since late September has surged to nearly 3,000, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. More than 13,300 people have been injured in air and ground raids, many of which have targeted civilian and medical infrastructure.

“I don’t understand how many innocent lives need to be sacrificed to satisfy the whims of the Israeli leadership. It’s simply inhuman, insane and cynical,” Jalal said.

In the wake of Israel’s invasion of Lebanon, an estimated 1,800 Bangladeshis had registered for an evacuation flight home.    

The first flights, organized by the government in Dhaka with the UN’s International Organization for Migration, had already brought some of them from Beirut last month.

Nizam was not among those who registered, with Jalal saying that his younger sibling had not been home once since he started living and working in Lebanon 12 years ago.

“The last time we talked … he was talking about building a house here in his birthplace. He was planning to return home soon by the end of this year. But now all of our dreams for a happy reunion have faded away with this sudden blow,” he said.

Though a request to repatriate the body of the deceased has been made, officials have said it was not currently possible due to the ongoing war. But Nizam’s family is still hoping for an arrangement with the help of authorities.

“Now I am waiting to see my brother’s face for one last time and bury him in our village. But I have no idea whether it would be possible or not amid this war situation,” Jalal said. “I don’t know when I will be able to see his face.”


Pro-Palestinian protesters take Israel sculptures from UK university

Pro-Palestinian protesters take Israel sculptures from UK university
Updated 03 November 2024
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Pro-Palestinian protesters take Israel sculptures from UK university

Pro-Palestinian protesters take Israel sculptures from UK university

LONDON: A pro-Palestinian group took two sculptures of Israel’s first president from a UK university in a protest marking the anniversary of the Balfour Declaration, with police on Sunday confirming they were investigating reports of a burglary.
“Today, Palestine Action have marked 107 years since the Balfour Declaration, by taking two sculptures of Israel’s first president, Chaim Weizmann, from its display case at University of Manchester,” the protest group said in a press release.
Greater Manchester Police told AFP in a statement that it had received a report of a burglary at the north west England university at around 11.55pm (2355 GMT) on Friday.
The local Jewish Representative Council of GM & Region community group wrote on X that “overnight, criminals from Palestine Action broke into the University, smashed the case and stole the statue of Weizmann.
“We urge the authorities and Home Secretary to fully proscribe Palestine Action as it is essential they face the full force of the law,” it added.
In the Balfour Declaration, UK foreign minister Arthur Balfour spelled out plans to form “a national home for the Jewish people” in a 1917 letter to Walter Rothschild, a British politician and supporter of the idea of creating a Jewish homeland in Palestine.
The letter was endorsed and published by the government on Nov 2, 1917.
Palestine Action also sprayed the London office of charity Jewish National Fund (JNF) with red paint, and carried out a similar protest at the Britain Israel Communications and Research Center (BICOM) lobby group HQ in London.
It also collaborated with students from the University of Cambridge, where Balfour was educated, to spray the university’s Institute of Manufacturing and Senate House.


Grenade attack wounds several in Indian-administered Kashmir — police

Grenade attack wounds several in Indian-administered Kashmir — police
Updated 03 November 2024
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Grenade attack wounds several in Indian-administered Kashmir — police

Grenade attack wounds several in Indian-administered Kashmir — police
  • Muslim-majority Kashmir has been divided between rivals India and Pakistan since their independence from British rule in 1947
  • The region is home to a long-running insurgency that has killed tens of thousands of civilians, soldiers and militants since 1989

SRINAGAR: Indian-administered Kashmir’s chief minister on Sunday condemned a “deeply disturbing” grenade attack on a busy market in the main city of Srinagar, which police and media reported left several wounded.

“A grenade attack on innocent shoppers at the ‘Sunday market’ in Srinagar is deeply disturbing,” Chief Minister Omar Abdullah said in a statement.

“There can be no justification for targeting innocent civilians.”

Abdullah did not say how many were wounded, but a senior police officer, who was not authorized to speak to journalists, said nine people were wounded, all civilians.

The Press Trust of India (PTI) showed dozens of armed police and soldiers cordoning off the area in the Himalayan city.

The Hindustan Times quoted Tasneem Showkat, a doctor at Srinagar’s SMHS Hospital, as saying at least eight injured had been taken for treatment.

“The injured include eight men and one woman,” Showkat said, the newspaper reported. “All are so far stable.”

Muslim-majority Kashmir has been divided between rivals India and Pakistan since their independence from British rule in 1947 and is home to a long-running insurgency.

At least 500,000 Indian troops are deployed in the territory, battling an insurgency that has killed tens of thousands of civilians, soldiers and separatist militants since 1989.

The grenade attack comes a day after Indian troops killed three suspected militants in two separate firefights.

In October, gunmen ambushed an army vehicle and killed five people, including three soldiers.

That came a week after seven people were shot dead near a construction site for a strategic road tunnel to Ladakh, a high-altitude Himalayan region bordering China.

New Delhi regularly blames Pakistan for arming militants and helping them launch attacks, an allegation Islamabad denies.

“The security apparatus must do everything possible to end this spurt of attacks at the earliest so that people can go about their lives without any fear,” Abdullah added.


Lahore primary schools shut over record pollution: Pakistan officials

Lahore primary schools shut over record pollution: Pakistan officials
Updated 28 min 28 sec ago
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Lahore primary schools shut over record pollution: Pakistan officials

Lahore primary schools shut over record pollution: Pakistan officials
  • For days, the city of 14 million people has been enveloped by smog, a mix of fog and pollutants

LAHORE: Pakistan’s second city of Lahore will close primary schools for a week over record pollution, government authorities said Sunday, to avoid exposing millions of children to smog several times above levels deemed dangerous.
For days, the city of 14 million people has been enveloped by smog, a mix of fog and pollutants caused by low-grade diesel fumes, smoke from seasonal agricultural burning and winter cooling.
The air quality index, which measures a range of pollutants, exceeded 1,000 on Saturday — well above the level of 300 considered “dangerous” — according to data from IQAir. The Punjab government also recorded peaks of over 1,000 on Sunday, which it considered “unprecedented.”
“Weather forecast for the next six days shows that wind patterns will remain the same. Therefore we are closing all government and private primary schools in Lahore for a week,” Jahangir Anwar, a senior environmental protection official in Lahore told AFP.
“All the classes” for children up to the age of 10, “public, private & special education... shall remain closed for one week” from Monday until Saturday, read a local government decision seen by AFP.
The decision added that the situation will be assessed again next Saturday to determine whether to extend the school closure.
“This smog is very harmful for children. Masks should be mandatory in schools. We are keeping an eye on the health of children in senior classes,” Punjab senior minister Marriyum Aurangzeb told a news conference Sunday.
Smog counters have been established in hospitals, she added.
Breathing the toxic air has catastrophic health consequences, with the WHO saying strokes, heart disease, lung cancer and respiratory diseases can be triggered by prolonged exposure.


Spanish royals visit flood-hit region as fresh downpours loom

Spanish royals visit flood-hit region as fresh downpours loom
Updated 03 November 2024
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Spanish royals visit flood-hit region as fresh downpours loom

Spanish royals visit flood-hit region as fresh downpours loom

VALENCIA: Spain’s King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia on Sunday just after midday arrived in the Valencia region where devastating floods have killed more than 200 people, television images showed.
The royals, accompanied by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, visited Paiporta — one of the worst affected towns — and are due to move on to Chiva, another battered town close to Valencia, later in the day.
Hopes of finding survivors ebbed five days after torrents of muddy water wrecked towns and infrastructure in Spain’s worst such disaster in decades.
Nearly all the deaths have been in the Valencia region, where thousands of security and emergency services frantically cleared debris and mud in the search for bodies.
Describing “the worst natural disaster in the recent history of our country,” Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said it was the second deadliest flood in Europe this century.
Sanchez was expected to accompany King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia as well as the Valencia region leader Carlos Mazon on a visit to the areas affected by the floods on Sunday, according to the premier’s office. The exact program of their visit has not yet been made public.
The monarchs’ visit comes as Spain’s meterological agency issued a fresh warning for heavy downpours in the Valencia region.
Up to 100 liters per square meter (22 gallons per square yard) of water could fall in the province of Castellon and the area surrounding the city of Valencia, the agency forecast.
It also sounded the alarm for torrential rain that may cause flooding in the southern province of Almeria, advising residents not to travel unless strictly necessary.
Restoring order and distributing aid to destroyed towns and villages — some of which have been cut off from food, water and power since Tuesday’s torrent — is a priority.
With Spain deploying an extra 10,000 troops, police and civil guards to the Valencia region, the country was carrying out its largest deployment of military and security force personnel in peacetime, Sanchez said.
Officers made around 20 arrests on Saturday evening for thievery and acts of looting, police said, with the authorities pledging to crack down on those taking advantage of the disaster to commit crimes.
Authorities — including Mazon — have come under fire over the warning systems before the floods, and some stricken residents have complained that the response to the disaster has been too slow.
“I am aware the response is not enough, there are problems and severe shortages... towns buried by mud, desperate people searching for their relatives... we have to improve,” Sanchez said.
In the ground-zero towns of Alfafar and Sedavi, AFP reporters saw no soldiers while residents shovelled mud from their homes and firefighters pumped water from garages and tunnels.
“Thank you to the people who have come to help us, to all of them, because from the authorities: nothing,” a furious Estrella Caceres, 66, told AFP in Sedavi.
In Chiva, a town west of Valencia which Spanish media reported may be visited by the monarchs, Danna Daniella said she had been cleaning her restaurant for three days straight and was still in shock.
“It feels like the end of the world,” the woman in her 30s said.
She said she was haunted by memories of the people trapped by the raging floodwaters “asking for help and there was nothing we could do.”
“It drives you crazy. You look for answers and you don’t find them.”
With telephone and transport networks severely damaged, establishing a precise figure of missing people is difficult.
Sanchez said electricity had been restored to 94 percent of homes affected by power outages and that around half of the cut telephone lines had been repaired.
Transport Minister Oscar Puente told El Pais daily that certain places would probably remain inaccessible by land for weeks.
Ordinary citizens carrying food, water and cleaning equipment have continued their grassroots initiative to assist the recovery, although authorities have urged people to stay at home to avoid congestion on the roads that would hamper the work of emergency services.
On Sunday, the Valencian government limited the number of volunteers authorized to travel to the city’s southern suburbs to 2,000 and restricted access to 12 localities.
The storm that sparked the floods on Tuesday formed as cold air moved over the warm waters of the Mediterranean and is common for this time of year.
But scientists warn climate change driven by human activity is increasing the ferocity, length and frequency of such extreme weather events.
Emergency services late on Saturday issued an updated toll of 213 people confirmed killed — 210 in the Valencia region, two in neighboring Castilla-La Mancha and one in Andalusia in the south.
Authorities have warned the toll could yet rise, as vehicles trapped in tunnels and underground car parks are cleared.