GCC banks excel beyond global counterparts, poised for exceptional years ahead: report

GCC banks excel beyond global counterparts, poised for exceptional years ahead: report
The McKinsey & Co. report struck an optimistic note for the GCC banking sector despite global challenges. Shutterstock
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Updated 01 October 2024
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GCC banks excel beyond global counterparts, poised for exceptional years ahead: report

GCC banks excel beyond global counterparts, poised for exceptional years ahead: report

RIYADH: A robust oil and gas sector, high interest margins, and fintech innovation will help drive banking sector growth across the Gulf Cooperation Council region in 2024 and beyond, according to a new report.

Analysis by global management consulting firm McKinsey & Co. found that despite global macroeconomic volatility, the region’s financial institutions outperformed their international counterparts in 2023 due to an exceptional operating environment, and the sector is set for a strong performance this year.

Global banking faces significant post-COVID-19 challenges, including rising prices and rapid monetary tightening. 

The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates quickly, which has raised bank profits but also heightened risks from unrealized losses, as evidenced by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the takeover of Credit Suisse. 

Middle East tensions and prolonged high US interest rates could further pressure global prices. These issues have led to a 10 percent decline in the price-to-book ratio, reducing global banking market capitalization by $900 billion.

The McKinsey & Co. report struck an optimistic note for the GCC banking sector, saying it “boasts an exceptionally high return on equity and some of the largest multiples worldwide.” 

The report added: “The regional financial sector has yielded healthy returns to shareholders over the past decade, outperforming the global average.”

McKinsey & Co. highlighted that the total shareholder return index, which tracks dividend-adjusted share prices of over 80 GCC financial institutions, has consistently shown superior growth trends compared to global benchmarks from 2010 to 2024. 

This underscores the sector’s ability to deliver robust shareholder returns amidst worldwide economic volatility.

GCC banks have also maintained higher return on equity levels and stronger market multiples globally. Despite recent narrowing, their ROE has consistently exceeded the global average by three to four percentage points from 2022 to 2023, reflecting their efficient capital management and profitability in a challenging global banking landscape.

Elevated interest rates have played a significant role, driving regional and international banking profits to record highs and supporting GCC banks in creating substantial shareholder value.

Furthermore, GCC banks boast higher net interest margins and revenue-to-assets ratios than the global average, according to the firm. With a net interest income of 2.3 percent, surpassing the worldwide norm of 1.4 percent, they indicate broader profitability margins regionally.

Despite facing higher impairment costs relative to global peers, GCC banks operate with lower operational costs, demonstrating efficient cost management strategies. Their average ROE of 10.9 percent reflects robust capitalization, outperforming the global average of 9.0 percent.

Overall, a favorable macroeconomic environment characterized by high hydrocarbon prices and robust economic growth has underpinned the GCC banking sector’s strong balance sheets and steady growth trajectory.

Resilience facing global risks

GCC banks have shown resilience amid recent global shocks, contrasting with the challenges facing the broader international banking sector. 

The McKinsey & Co. report highlighted that while worldwide economic connectivity offers growth opportunities, it also increases instability risks, highlighted by heightened geopolitical tensions and regulatory scrutiny.

The firm stated that these trends are occurring against the backdrop of accelerating climate change – a global risk multiplier that also presents a multitrillion-dollar opportunity to finance the transition to low-carbon growth.

McKinsey’s macroeconomic scenarios project that global banking conditions will deteriorate in the coming years, leading to a peak and subsequent decline in return on equity for GCC banks.

Despite this, the region’s sector is better equipped to manage these challenges compared to its peers. Their banking indicators are expected to diverge positively from worldwide trends, highlighting their resilience and relative strength in navigating future economic uncertainties.

According to a 2023 study by Ernst & Young, increasing demand for banking services, growth in digital banking and regulatory reforms such as the introduction of Basel IV are expected to help boost growth in this sector.

Managing liquidity

Nevertheless, GCC banks face challenges despite a favorable environment, particularly from fluctuating interest rates. The firm noted that global tight monetary policies and faster growth in financing than deposits necessitate careful liquidity management.

The analysis showed that financing grew by 14 percent annually in the Kingdom from 2019 to 2022, outpacing 9 percent deposit growth. High interest rates drive mortgage lending as governments promote homeownership, impacting GCC banks’ retail loan portfolios.

The average loan-to-deposit ratio for Saudi banks increased by 18 percentage points from 2020 to 2022, suggesting potential liquidity issues ahead. High rates may also shift consumer and corporate behaviors, affecting non-interest-bearing liabilities and savings and investment patterns.

Total loans in Saudi Arabia are projected to reach SR5.04 trillion ($1.34 trillion) by 2030, growing annually at 10 percent from 2024 to 2030, the report showed.

Wholesale loans will comprise the largest share at 69 percent, followed by mortgages at 21 percent, and consumer finance at 11 percent.

Conversely, deposits are expected to reach SR3.54 trillion by 2030, growing at a rate of 5 percent per year. Wholesale deposits will account for 53 percent, with retail holdings making up the remaining 47 percent.

The total loans-to-deposits ratio is expected to increase by 142 percent from 104 percent in 2024, indicating that deposit growth in Saudi Arabia has not kept pace with financing, thereby heightening liquidity pressures.

Since 2020, GCC banks have significantly ramped up their activity in international debt capital markets. This strategic move aims to bolster their financing growth strategies, diversify funding sources, and more recently, mitigate the high costs of liquidity domestically.

According to a recent report from Fitch Ratings, emerging market dollar debt issuance, excluding China, surpassed $200 billion in the first five months of 2024, with the Kingdom issuers leading with 18.5 percent of the total issuance.

Despite challenging financial landscapes, these banks have adeptly managed liquidity challenges, supported by increased access to government sukuk and liquidity-management tools provided by central banks.

These measures are designed to ensure sustained liquidity levels, enabling banks to fulfill financial obligations and maintain operational stability amidst fluctuating market conditions.

Innovation and technology

McKinsey & Co. highlighted key transformational factors shaping GCC banks, including innovation, machine learning, and generative artificial intelligence, as well as high digital penetration and the influence of fin-tech in reshaping the industry.

Additionally, GCC regulators are actively developing an open banking framework to further drive sector evolution.

Abdulla Al-Moayed, CEO of Tarabut, praised Saudi Arabia’s adoption of open banking in an interview with Arab News in May.

He highlighted the collaborative efforts between banks and fintechs to innovate and expand market reach, signaling a significant evolution toward digital transformation in the Kingdom’s banking industry.

Generative AI and other advanced technologies are poised to revolutionize banking operations, boosting client engagement and operational efficiencies.

In the GCC, fintech advancements such as digital payments and sophisticated financial products are gaining popularity, driven by increasing demand for personalized digital services.

McKinsey & Co. noted that fintech firms are expanding their portfolios beyond basic offerings to serve both consumer and business sectors, buoyed by substantial funding and widespread digital adoption in the region.

Concurrently, traditional banks are launching new digital initiatives to remain competitive, highlighting the dynamic and evolving banking landscape across the GCC.

An example was given of how regulators in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are fostering innovation through open banking frameworks aligned with global standards. This has spurred local startups and prompted established institutes to adopt new technologies.

The report stated that open banking boosts competition and IT costs and offers benefits like expanded customer reach and new services. It also demands that banks adapt to seize opportunities while managing profitability risks.

McKinsey & Co. recommendations

GCC banks are poised to navigate global economic uncertainties effectively but must remain proactive rather than complacent, the report warned.

Key priorities for banking CEOs in the region include managing hesitation around interest rates through robust asset-liability management and stress testing.

There should also be steps taken at enhancing operating efficiency by digitalizing processes and automating routine tasks that will optimize human resources.

Transforming the customer experience by offering real-time, personalized products to a digitally savvy population is crucial, as is maintaining focus on environmental, social, and governance initiatives that support global climate change efforts.

Additionally, creating shareholder value through strategic mergers and acquisitions and restructuring allows banks to capitalize on evolving market dynamics, freeing capital by divesting non-core assets and refocusing on core operations.

These priorities underscore GCC banks’ proactive stance amid evolving economic landscapes.


Citi gets license for regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia, memo shows

Citi gets license for regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia, memo shows
Updated 22 November 2024
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Citi gets license for regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia, memo shows

Citi gets license for regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia, memo shows
  • Wall Street giant received the approval from the Ministry of Investment Saudi Arabia

RIYADH: US bank Citigroup has received approval to establish its regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh, according to an internal memo seen by Reuters on Friday.
The Wall Street giant received the approval from the Ministry of Investment Saudi Arabia (MISA), according to the memo.
“This marks a significant leap forward for our franchise in Saudi Arabia and we look forward to our continued growth in the kingdom,” Citi Saudi Arabia CEO Fahad Aldeweesh said in the memo.
Bloomberg News reported the development earlier in the day.
Wall Street titan Goldman Sachs also received a license in May to set up its regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh.


Saudi Arabia joins global hydrogen fuel partnership

Saudi Arabia joins global hydrogen fuel partnership
Updated 22 November 2024
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Saudi Arabia joins global hydrogen fuel partnership

Saudi Arabia joins global hydrogen fuel partnership

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has joined a key international alliance designed to enhance cooperation around the development and deployment of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies.

The International Partnership for the Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Economy works to deliver a balanced and effective global transition to cleaner and more efficient energy systems.

The Kingdom’s Ministry of Energy announced Saudi Arabia had signed up to the organization, with a press release saying the move represents a new step that confirms the “pioneering role” that the Kingdom is playing in international efforts aimed at enhancing sustainability and “innovating advanced solutions” in the fields of clean power.

Saudi Arabia has pledged to achieve zero neutrality in terms of carbon emissions by 2060, as well as becoming one of the world’s most important producers and exporters of clean hydrogen.

The press release added: “The Kingdom’s accession to this partnership confirms its firm vision regarding the role of international cooperation and its importance in achieving a more sustainable energy future.”

The IPHE was originally launched in 2003 by the US, and has two active working groups covering Education & Outreach, and Regulations, Codes, Standards, & Safety.


COP29 enters final hours amid key negotiations on climate finance and carbon markets

COP29 enters final hours amid key negotiations on climate finance and carbon markets
Updated 22 November 2024
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COP29 enters final hours amid key negotiations on climate finance and carbon markets

COP29 enters final hours amid key negotiations on climate finance and carbon markets

BAKU: As COP29 nears its conclusion, negotiators are working intensively to finalize agreements that could significantly advance global climate action. 

Hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan, the conference has focused on critical issues such as climate finance, adaptation strategies, and the operationalization of carbon markets under the 2015 Paris Agreement. 

Although decisions remain in draft form, the discussions signal progress on aligning global efforts with the urgent need to combat the climate crisis.

Saudi Arabia has emerged as a key player, leveraging its growing diplomatic influence and domestic climate initiatives to shape the outcomes.

Push for equitable climate finance

One of the most pressing topics at COP29 has been the New Collective Quantified Goal on climate finance. 

Negotiators are seeking to establish a framework that mobilizes $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 to support developing nations in addressing climate change. 

This new goal reflects the escalating financial demands of both mitigation and adaptation efforts, with developing countries requiring $215 billion to 387 billion annually for adaptation alone through 2030.

Saudi Arabia has been a vocal advocate for equitable financing mechanisms, emphasizing the need for practical pathways to unlock funds for countries that bear the brunt of climate impacts yet have limited resources. 

The Kingdom has supported calls for reforming global financial institutions to reduce barriers such as high borrowing costs and restrictive conditions. This aligns with Saudi Arabia’s broader position that climate finance must be accessible and targeted to the most vulnerable nations.

Domestically, Saudi Arabia has backed its advocacy with action. The Kingdom has committed significant investments to its Saudi Green Initiative, which includes billions of dollars for renewable energy projects, reforestation, and environmental restoration. 

These initiatives underscore Saudi Arabia’s dual focus on addressing domestic climate challenges and contributing to global solutions, according to the draft resolution. 

“Through initiatives like the Saudi Green Initiative, the Kingdom has committed to reducing regional emissions by more than 10 percent and leading the planting of 50 billion trees across the Middle East to combat desertification and foster environmental sustainability,” the document stated.

Speeches came to an end as negotiations at COP29 in Baku reached their final hours. AN Photo/Abdulrahman Bin Shulhub

Carbon Markets: A Saudi priority

Discussions on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which governs international carbon trading, have been another focal point of COP29. 

Saudi Arabia has taken a prominent role in shaping the rules for carbon markets, advocating for frameworks that promote transparency and equitable participation.

Under Article 6.2, which covers bilateral cooperation, and Article 6.4, which establishes a centralized mechanism for trading carbon credits, Saudi negotiators emphasized the importance of avoiding double-counting emissions reductions and ensuring environmental integrity. 

These safeguards are essential for building trust in the carbon market as a tool for accelerating emissions reductions.

In the draft resolution on financing released by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change it is outlined that “Saudi Arabia emphasizes the importance of transparency and equitable participation in Article 6 mechanisms, ensuring that developing nations can benefit from international carbon trading frameworks.”

The Kingdom’s engagement in these discussions reflects its broader ambition to become a regional hub for carbon trading. The Kingdom is advancing projects in carbon capture, utilization, and storage, positioning itself as a leader in leveraging market-based solutions to achieve climate goals. 

These efforts align with the Saudi Green Initiative’s targets for emissions reductions and renewable energy expansion.

A commitment to adaptation

While mitigation often dominates global climate discussions, COP29 has seen renewed attention to adaptation – an area where Saudi Arabia has also contributed actively.

Negotiators are working to refine the Global Goal on Adaptation by developing measurable indicators to track progress.

These metrics aim to ensure that adaptation efforts are effective and responsive to the needs of vulnerable communities.

“Saudi Arabia continues its focus on promoting energy efficiency, a critical pillar of its sustainability agenda, as highlighted by top officials during COP29 discussions,” reads the draft resolution.​

The Kingdom has supported these efforts, emphasizing the importance of integrating local knowledge and traditional practices into adaptation strategies. The Kingdom’s approach aligns with its domestic priorities, which include enhancing resilience to desertification and water scarcity, challenges exacerbated by its arid climate, the document added.

Inclusivity and collaboration

Inclusivity has been a central theme at COP29, and Saudi Arabia has demonstrated its commitment to ensuring diverse voices are part of the climate conversation. The Kingdom supported the draft Baku Workplan, which aims to elevate indigenous peoples and local communities in climate governance.

Domestically, Saudi Arabia has prioritized inclusivity through education and workforce development programs that prepare youth and women for leadership roles in green industries. 

These initiatives are part of broader reforms under Vision 2030, which aims to diversify the economy while ensuring equitable opportunities for all citizens.

COP29 began on Nov. 11. AN Photo/Abdulrahman Bin Shulhub

Regional leadership

Saudi Arabia’s influence extends beyond its national borders. Through the Middle East Green Initiative, the Kingdom is fostering regional cooperation to combat climate change.

The initiative includes ambitious goals to plant 50 billion trees across the Middle East and reduce regional emissions by more than 10 percent.

At COP29, these efforts were presented as examples of how regional action can amplify global progress.

By working closely with other Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Saudi Arabia is also driving investments in renewable energy projects that enhance energy security and sustainability. 

These partnerships underscore the Kingdom’s role as a regional leader in climate action, capable of catalyzing collective efforts to address shared challenges.

Challenges and opportunities ahead

As COP29 approaches its conclusion, much remains to be finalized. The draft decisions on climate finance, carbon markets, and adaptation reflect significant progress but also underscore the complexity of reaching consensus among diverse stakeholders.

Saudi Arabia’s contributions to these discussions demonstrate its ability to balance domestic priorities with international leadership. By advocating for equitable solutions, advancing regional cooperation, and showcasing its own climate successes, the Kingdom has positioned itself as a key player in shaping the global response to climate change.

The conference has marked an important step forward in the global fight against climate change. The agreements under discussion – particularly those on finance and carbon markets – highlight the growing recognition that collective action is essential to achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals.

Saudi Arabia’s active participation in these negotiations underscores its evolving role as a climate leader. 


Saudi cement sales up 5% to 12.84m tonnes amid sustainability drive

Saudi cement sales up 5% to 12.84m tonnes amid sustainability drive
Updated 22 November 2024
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Saudi cement sales up 5% to 12.84m tonnes amid sustainability drive

Saudi cement sales up 5% to 12.84m tonnes amid sustainability drive

RIYADH: Cement sales in Saudi Arabia saw an annual increase of 4.93 percent in the third quarter of 2024, reaching 12.84 million tonnes, according to recent data.

Figures released by Al-Yamama Cement showed that 96.18 percent of these sales were domestic, with only 3.82 percent being exported.  

The data covers 17 Saudi cement companies, with Al-Yamama Cement holding the largest share of domestic sales at 12.47 percent, amounting to 1.54 million tonnes, despite experiencing a 27.18 percent decline during the period.

With the successful acquisition of Hail Cement Company by Qassim Cement Company, QCC now leads the market with the highest share among its peers at 13.37 percent, or 1.65 million tonnes, moving Al-Yamama Cement to second place.

Saudi Cement, Southern Cement and Yanbu Cement held 8.96 percent, 8.49 percent and 8.18 percent shares of the domestic market respectively.

The highest growth in domestic sales was recorded by Umm Al-Qura Cement, which saw a 69 percent increase to 372,000 tonnes during this period, despite holding a relatively small 3 percent market share.

City Cement’s local sales rose by 52.69 percent annually to 739,000 tonnes, while Tabuk Cement experienced a 27.3 percent increase, reaching 429,000 tonnes.  

In terms of cement exports, Saudi Cement dominated with 80.45 percent of total shipments, amounting to 395,000 tonnes this quarter.  This figure represents a 13.18 percent increase compared to the same quarter last year.   

Najran Cement accounted for 11 percent of exports for the quarter, totaling 54,000 tonnes, marking a 24 percent decline. Eastern Cement with 8.55 percent share saw a 133 percent rise in exports, reaching 42,000 tonnes. 

Saudi Arabia also exported 1.08 million tonnes of clinker during this period, marking a 41 percent decline compared to the same period last year.

Clinker, a crucial intermediate product in cement production, is commonly exported due to its cost-effectiveness. It is more economical to ship it to other countries for final processing into cement than to produce the finished product and then export.

According to a report by AlJazira Capital, the total utilization rate of the cement sector in Saudi Arabia stood at 72.8 percent in September. 

This figure represents the proportion of the cement production capacity that is actively being used to meet demand.

A utilization rate of 72.8 percent indicates that, on average, the cement industry in Saudi Arabia is using just over two-thirds of its available production capacity.

Saudi Arabia is a prominent player in the global cement industry, ranking among the top 10 producers worldwide. The Kingdom’s production capacity has been bolstered by significant investments to meet both domestic demand and export opportunities.

Key factors driving Saudi Arabia’s cement industry include its robust infrastructure development, housing projects, and initiatives under Vision 2030, which aim to diversify the economy and reduce reliance on oil revenues.

Saudi Arabia’s path to decarbonization

In October, Saudi Arabia’s cement sector took a significant leap towards decarbonization with the announcement of a joint venture between the UK’s Next Generation SCM and Nizak Mining Co., a subsidiary of City Cement.

The collaboration is focused on producing supplementary cementitious materials locally, utilizing an innovative, energy-efficient technology.

This new method requires only one-sixth of the fuel compared to conventional cement production and operates at lower temperatures, significantly reducing operational costs and carbon emissions.

The technology already demonstrates a 99 percent reduction in emissions, producing just 8 kg of CO2 per tonne of calcined clay, compared to the global average of 600 kg per tonne.

The joint venture is part of the Kingdom’s broader decarbonization strategy, which is aligned with Vision 2030 and the Saudi Green Initiative.

As part of these proposals, the Kingdom has set an ambitious goal of cutting carbon emissions by 278 million tonnes annually by 2030.

This venture, which will have its first production plant in Riyadh, is expected to produce up to 700,000 tonnes of low-carbon supplementary cementitious materials in its second year of operations, starting in 2025.

The project is also crucial for the domestic production of low-carbon concrete, as traditional SCM alternatives, like fly ash and slag, are not readily available in Saudi Arabia.

The venture will not only help Saudi Arabia meet its sustainability targets but also strengthen its position as a regional hub for low-carbon materials, generating both economic and environmental benefits.

Speaking in October, Majed Al-Osailan, CEO of City Cement, emphasized the long-term impact of the project, stating that it will create jobs, improve access to sustainable building materials, and create export opportunities for the Kingdom.

According to a study by the Boston Consulting Group in September, Saudi Arabia stands to gain a significant competitive advantage in the global cement industry as the sector moves toward decarbonization through carbon capture and storage.

The competitive dynamics of the industry are shifting due to the high costs associated with CCS, which is essential for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

One of the primary factors influencing future competitiveness is a plant’s proximity to CO2 storage sites.

Cement plants located within 200 km of CCS hubs could see abatement costs reduced by half compared to those located farther away.

This geographical advantage will be crucial in determining cost competitiveness on a global scale.

Saudi Arabia, with its lower energy costs, is well-positioned to capitalize on this advantage according to the study. The Middle East, in general, benefits from cheaper energy, which could give Saudi plants a $20 per tonne cost advantage in CCS over the global median.

This would allow Saudi Arabia to emerge as a key export hub in the global cement market. 

Plants in the Kingdom that can minimize their CCS abatement costs will be internationally competitive, particularly as global trade dynamics shift and demand grows for low-carbon cement.

Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure and strategic location near key shipping routes bolster its potential as a regional and global supplier of cement.

With substantial investments in CCS technology and renewables, the Kingdom could not only meet domestic demand but also serve international markets more efficiently, securing its position in the evolving global cement trade.

As the cost of CCS implementation rises, the global competitive landscape will be reshaped, with plants closer to CO2 storage hubs and renewable energy sources becoming more attractive.

Saudi Arabia’s competitive edge, therefore, lies in its ability to leverage its energy resources and strategic location, potentially making it a leader in the export of low-carbon cement solutions.


Oil Updates – crude heads for weekly gains as Ukraine war intensifies

Oil Updates – crude heads for weekly gains as Ukraine war intensifies
Updated 22 November 2024
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Oil Updates – crude heads for weekly gains as Ukraine war intensifies

Oil Updates – crude heads for weekly gains as Ukraine war intensifies

LONDON: Oil prices inched lower on Friday, but were on track for a weekly rise of nearly 4 percent, as an intensifying war in Ukraine returned a geopolitical risk premium to oil markets.

Brent crude futures fell 65 cents, or 0.88 percent, to $73.58 a barrel by 4:12 p.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by 66 cents, or 0.94 percent, to $69.44 per barrel.

Pressuring prices on Friday, eurozone business activity took a surprisingly sharp turn for the worse this month as the bloc’s dominant services industry contracted and manufacturing sank deeper into recession.

Kazakhstan’s largest oilfield, Tengiz, is scheduled to return to full production in early December, Russian news agency Interfax reported on Friday, while elsewhere Kazakhstan’s energy ministry said it plans to produce 90 million tonnes of oil in 2025, up from 88 million tonnes in 2024.

Both contracts are set for gains of nearly 4 percent this week, as Moscow steps up its Ukraine offensive after Britain and the United States allowed Kyiv to strike deeper into Russia with their missiles.

“The Russia-Ukraine escalation has raised geopolitical tensions beyond levels seen during the year-long conflict between Israel and Iran-backed militants,” Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen said on Friday.

He added that rising refinery margins and an incoming cold snap had also supported distillate refinery profit margins, and wider oil prices, this week.

The Kremlin said on Friday that a strike on Ukraine using a newly developed hypersonic ballistic missile was a message to the West that Moscow will respond harshly to any “reckless” Western actions in support of Ukraine.

Ukraine has used drones to target Russian oil infrastructure, for instance in June, when it used long-range attack drones to strike four Russian refineries.

“What the market fears is accidental destruction in any part of oil, gas and refining that not only causes long-term damage but accelerates a war spiral,” said PVM analyst John Evans.

Also supporting prices this week, China announced policy measures on Thursday to boost trade, including support for energy product imports, amid worries over US President-elect Donald Trump’s threats to impose tariffs.

China’s crude oil imports are set to rebound in November, according to analysts, traders and ship tracking data.