MOGADISHU: Somalia’s government is seeking to slow the withdrawal of African peacekeepers and warning of a potential security vacuum, documents seen by Reuters show, with neighboring countries fretting that resurgent Al-Shabab extremists could seize power.
The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, a peacekeeping force, is committed to withdrawing by Dec. 31, when a smaller new force is expected to replace it.
However, in a letter last month to the acting chair of the African Union Peace and Security Council, the government asked to delay until September the withdrawal of half the 4,000 troops due to leave by the end of June. The letter has not been reported before.
BACKGROUND
The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia — a peacekeeping force — is committed to withdrawing by Dec. 31, when a smaller new force is expected to replace it.
The government had previously recommended, in a joint assessment with the AU in March, reviewed by Reuters, that the overall withdrawal timeline be adjusted “based on the actual readiness and capabilities” of Somali forces.
The joint assessment, mandated by the UN Security Council, warned that a “hasty drawdown of ATMIS personnel will contribute to a security vacuum.”
“I’ve never been more concerned about the direction of my home country,” said Mursal Khalif, an independent member of the defense committee in parliament.
The EU and US, the top funders of the AU force in Somalia, have sought to reduce the peacekeeping operation due to concerns about long-term financing and sustainability, four diplomatic sources and a senior Ugandan official said.
Three of the diplomatic sources said that negotiations about a new force have proven complicated, with the AU initially pushing for a more robust mandate than Somalia wanted. A heated political dispute could lead Ethiopia to pull out some of the most battle-hardened troops.
Somalia’s presidency and prime minister’s office did not respond to requests for comment.
Mohammed El-Amine Souef, AU special representative to Somalia and head of ATMIS, said there was no definitive timeline for concluding negotiations but that all parties were committed to an agreement that helps achieve sustainable peace and security.
“The AU and Somalia’s government have emphasized the importance of a conditions-based drawdown to prevent any security vacuum,” he said.
The Peace and Security Council was due to discuss the drawdown and follow-up mission.
With 5,000 of around 18,500 troops leaving last year, the government has projected confidence as the drawdown proceeds.
It has said the new force should not exceed 10,000 and should be limited to tasks like securing major population centers.
The call for a smaller force likely reflects views of nationalists who oppose a heavy foreign presence in Somalia, said Rashid Abdi, an analyst with Sahan Research, a Nairobi-based think tank focused on the Horn of Africa.
Uganda and Kenya, which contributed troops to the departing mission, are also worried.
Henry Okello Oryem, Uganda’s state minister of foreign affairs, said that despite intensive training efforts, Somali troops could not sustain a long-term military confrontation.
“We do not want to get into a situation where we are fleeing, the kind of thing that we saw in Afghanistan,” he told Reuters.
Oryem said Kenya accepted the drawdown requested by the US and EU but that countries’ concerns with forces in Somalia should be heard.
Kenyan President William Ruto said in Washington last month that a withdrawal that did not account for conditions on the ground would mean “the terrorists will take over Somalia.”
In response to questions, an EU spokesperson said it was focused on building domestic security capacities and supported, in principle, a Somali government proposal for a new mission with a reduced size and scope.
A US State Department spokesperson said the force should be large enough to prevent a security vacuum.
The spokesperson said that Washington has supported all requests submitted by the AU to the UN Security Council to modify the drawdown timeline.
In response to a question about Ethiopian forces, the spokesperson said it was critical to avoid security gaps or unnecessary expenses “incurred by swapping out existing troop contributors.”
Two years ago, an army offensive in central Somalia initially seized large swathes of territory from Al-Shabab. In August, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamed declared his intention to “eliminate” the powerful Al-Qaeda offshoot within five months.
But just a few days later, Al-Shabab counter-attacked, retaking the town of Cowsweyne.
They killed scores of soldiers and beheaded several civilians accused of supporting the army, according to a soldier, an allied militiaman, and a resident.
“This broke the hearts of Somalis but gave courage to Al-Shabab,” Ahmed Abdulle, the militiaman from a clan in central Somalia, said in an interview in April.
The Somali government has never publicly provided a death toll for the Cowsweyne battle and didn’t respond to a request for a toll for this story.
“There were enough troops in Cowsweyne, over a battalion, but they were not organized well,” said a soldier named Issa, who fought in the battle there last August.
Issa said car bombs had blasted through the gates of the Cowsweyne army camp on the day of the attack, citing a shortage of defensive outposts to protect bases from such attacks.
Ten soldiers, militiamen from local clans, and residents in areas targeted by the military campaign reported that there had been no army operations in the past two months following additional battlefield setbacks.
Reuters could not independently establish the extent of the territorial losses to Al-Shabab.
On X this week, Somalia’s National Security Adviser said that the army had held most of its gains.
The peacekeepers’ withdrawal could make it more difficult to hold territory.
While analysts estimate Somalia’s army to be around 32,000 soldiers, the government acknowledged, in the assessment with the AU, a shortage of some 11,000 trained personnel due to “high operational tempo” and “attrition.”
The government has said its soldiers can confront Al-Shabab with limited external support.
Somalia has defied gloomy predictions and expanded its security forces in recent years.
Residents of the seaside capital Mogadishu — whose ubiquitous blast walls testify to the threat of Shabab suicide bombers and mortars — say security has improved.
Once-quiet streets bustle with traffic, and upscale restaurants and supermarkets are opening.
An assessment published in April by the Combating Terrorism Center at the US Military Academy said an Afghanistan-like collapse was unlikely, helped by ongoing external support.
The US, for instance, has about 450 troops in Somalia to train and advise local forces and conduct regular drone attacks against suspected militants.
But the assessment’s author, Paul D. Williams, a professor of international affairs at George Washington University, said the militants’ estimated 7,000-12,000 fighters would be “slightly militarily stronger” than Somali forces because of superior cohesion and force employment.
Foreign resources have underwritten Somalia’s security since Ethiopia invaded in 2006, toppling an extremist-led administration but galvanizing an insurgency that has since killed tens of thousands of people.
According to a study by Brown University, the US has spent more than $2.5 billion on counterterrorism assistance since 2007. That number does not include undisclosed military and intelligence spending on activities like drone strikes and deployments of American ground troops.
The EU says it has provided about $2.8 billion to ATMIS and its predecessor since 2007.
Middle Eastern countries also provide security assistance.
But resources are under strain. Four diplomatic sources said that the EU, which pays for most of ATMIS’s roughly $100 million annual budget, is shifting toward bilateral support to reduce its overall contributions in the medium term.
Two diplomats interviewed by Reuters said the US and EU want to scale back peacekeeping operations because of competing spending priorities, including Ukraine and Gaza, and a sense Somalia should take responsibility for its security.
The four diplomatic sources said that some European countries would like to see the new mission financed through assessed contributions of UN member states, which would increase the financial burden on the US and China.
The State Department spokesperson said that the US did not believe such a system could be implemented by next year but that there was strong international consensus to support the follow-on mission.
The EU did not address questions about the financing of the replacement mission
Financing for the new mission can only be formally addressed once Somalia and the AU agree on a proposed size and mandate.
