Saudi Arabia’s inflation holds steady at 1.6% in May: GASTAT  

Saudi Arabia’s inflation holds steady at 1.6% in May: GASTAT  
According to the report by the General Authority for Statistics, expenses for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels increased by 0.4 percent month-on-month in May.  Shutterstock
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Updated 16 June 2024
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Saudi Arabia’s inflation holds steady at 1.6% in May: GASTAT  

Saudi Arabia’s inflation holds steady at 1.6% in May: GASTAT  

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s annual inflation rate held steady at 1.6 percent for the third consecutive month in May, driven by rising housing rents, according to official data. 

The General Authority for Statistics report stated that the Consumer Price Index increased due to a 10.5 percent rise in actual housing rents, which included a 14.3 percent surge in apartment rents. 

“This increase had a significant impact on maintaining the annual inflation rate for May 2024, due to the substantial weight of this category at 21 percent,” said the authority in the report.  

Similarly, costs of food and beverages increased by 1.4 percent, driven by a 6.9 percent rise in vegetable prices.  

On the other hand, prices of furnishing and home equipment decreased by 3.8 percent.  

Similarly, expenses for clothing and footwear decreased by 4 percent year-on-year in May, while transport costs also decreased by 2.4 percent during the same period. 

Monthly inflation  

Meanwhile, the monthly inflation rate rose marginally by 0.2 percent in May compared to the previous month, driven by changes in housing prices. 

The expenses for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels increased by 0.4 percent month-on-month in May.  

The monthly inflation index was also impacted by expenses for food and beverages, which went up by 0.7 percent in May compared to April.  

Additionally, expenses for restaurants and hotels edged up by 0.2 percent, while costs for personal goods and services increased by 0.1 percent month-on-month in May.  

On the other hand, prices for clothing and footwear dipped by 0.6 percent in May compared to the previous month, while costs for transportation edged down by 0.4 percent.  

The report further pointed out that prices of education, furnishing and home equipment, and tobacco products did not show any significant change in May compared to April.  

In May, a report released by Riyad Capital revealed that Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate is expected to average around 2 percent in 2024, with a moderate acceleration to 2.4 percent in 2025.

The Riyad Capital analysis also added that the Kingdom’s non-oil sector is projected to grow at a rate of 4.8 percent in 2024, driven by growth-oriented fiscal policy.

The report further noted that non-oil activities in Saudi Arabia will accelerate further in 2025, with a projected expansion rate of 5.2 percent.

Last year, the International Monetary Fund noted that the likelihood of a rise in headline and core inflation in oil-exporting countries like Saudi Arabia is low.

“Headline and core inflation in many oil-exporting countries like Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia remain relatively lower than elsewhere,” said the IMF.

Wholesale price index increases 

In another report, GASTAT revealed that Saudi Arabia’s Wholesale Price Index increased by 3.2 percent in May compared to the same month of the previous year. 

This increase is mainly driven by a 14.5 percent rise in prices of basic chemicals and a 12 percent increase in the costs of refined petroleum products, the authority added. 

Similarly, prices of food products, beverages, tobacco, and textiles rose by 1.8 percent year-on-year in May, due to a 7.4 percent increase in the prices of leather, leather products, and footwear. 

On the other hand, the costs of ores and minerals decreased by 2.8 percent, mainly due to a 2.8 percent decrease in stone and sand prices.

Additionally, agricultural and fishery product expenses experienced a 1.3 percent year-on-year decrease in May, driven by a 2.8 percent decrease in fish and other fishing product prices and a 2.7 percent decline in live animals and animal product prices.

Furthermore, the prices of metal products, machinery, and equipment decreased by 0.4 percent in May compared to the same month of the previous year, attributed to a 6.6 percent decline in the prices of radio, television, and communication equipment and apparatus.

Compared to April, the Kingdom’s WPI decreased by 0.1 percent in May, driven by a 0.3 percent drop in the prices of food products, beverages, tobacco, and textiles. 

This decline resulted from a 1.7 percent decrease in the prices of meat, fish, fruit, vegetables, oils, and fats, and a 0.4 percent decline in the prices of leather, leather products, and footwear.

Similarly, the costs of agriculture and fishery products also decreased by 0.2 percent month-on-month, driven by a 1.6 percent fall in the prices of live animals and animal products.

Compared to April, the prices of other transportable goods declined by 0.1 percent in May, driven by a 0.7 percent decrease in the costs of basic chemicals.

In contrast, the costs of metal products, machinery, and equipment rose by 0.1 percent, as a result of a 1.1 percent increase in the prices of electrical machinery and apparatus.

Average prices rising

Meanwhile, in another report, GASTAT revealed that the prices of Abu Sorra Egyptian oranges increased by 22.70 percent in May compared to the previous month.

Similarly, the prices of local tomatoes and Turkish plums rose by 12.80 percent and 10.33 percent, respectively, in May from April.

Additionally, Indian pomegranates and Pakistani mandarins also experienced notable increases, rising by 10.15 percent and 9.71 percent, respectively.

On the other hand, hotel accommodation prices in Saudi Arabia witnessed a 13.94 percent month-on-month decline.

Similarly, the costs of local melons, Lebanese peaches, and imported onions dipped by 13.30 percent, 11.37 percent, and 9.34 percent, respectively.


Oil Updates — crude slips as Gaza talks ease supply disruption woes 

Oil Updates — crude slips as Gaza talks ease supply disruption woes 
Updated 11 sec ago
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Oil Updates — crude slips as Gaza talks ease supply disruption woes 

Oil Updates — crude slips as Gaza talks ease supply disruption woes 

SINGAPORE: Oil prices slid on Monday after rising for four weeks, as the prospect of a ceasefire deal in Gaza eased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, while investors assessed potential disruption to US energy supplies from Tropical Storm Beryl, according to Reuters. 

Brent crude futures were down 36 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $86.18 a barrel, as at 09:46 a.m. Saudi time. 

US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $82.71 a barrel, down 45 cents, or 0.5 percent. 

Talks over a US ceasefire plan aimed at ending the nine-month-old war in Gaza are under way, and being mediated by Qatar and Egypt. 

“If anything concrete comes from the ceasefire talks, it will take some of geopolitical bid out of the market for now,” said IG analyst Tony Sycamore based in Sydney. 

The ports of Corpus Christi, Houston, Galveston, Freeport and Texas City closed on Sunday to prepare for Hurricane Beryl, which is expected to make a landfall in the middle of the Texas coast between Galveston and Corpus Christi later on Monday. 

Port closures could bring a temporary halt to crude and liquefied natural gas exports, oil shipments to refineries, and motor fuel deliveries from those plants. 

“While this puts some offshore oil and gas production at risk, the concern when the storm makes landfall is the potential impact it could have on refinery infrastructure,” ING analysts led by Warren Patterson said in a note. 

“Any meaningful disruptions to Texas refinery operations will likely support refined product cracks.” 

IG’s Sycamore said there is also a good chance of US data showing another large weekly draw in US oil inventories amidst peak driving season, which will be supportive for oil prices. 

WTI gained 2.1 percent last week after data from the Energy Information Administration showed stockpiles for crude and refined products fell in the week ended June 28.  

“WTI has had a very good run, though, having rallied 15 percent from the early June low,” Sycamore said, adding that the benchmark could see strong resistance between $85.50 and $87.50 based on technical charts. 

The number of operating oil rigs in the US was unchanged at 479 last week, holding at its lowest since December 2021, Baker Hughes said in its weekly report on Friday. 

Oil prices were also supported last week by hopes of interest rate cuts following US data on Friday that showed inflation is easing and job growth slowing. 

Lower interest rates can boost economic activity and increase crude oil demand. 

Investors were also watching for any impact from elections in the UK, France and Iran last week on geopolitics and energy policies. 

France faced potential political deadlock after elections on Sunday threw up a hung parliament while Iranians chose Masoud Pezeshkian as their new president, a relative moderate who beat a hard-line rival in the election.


Closing Bell: Saudi main index rose to close at 11,688 

Closing Bell: Saudi main index rose to close at 11,688 
Updated 07 July 2024
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index rose to close at 11,688 

Closing Bell: Saudi main index rose to close at 11,688 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index rose on Sunday, gaining 29.95 points, or 0.26 percent, to close at 11,688.61. 

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR3.93 billion ($1.04 billion) as 139 of the stocks advanced while 87 retreated.    

Similarly, the Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu gained 244.80 points, or 0.94 percent, to close at 26,154.75. This comes as 33 of the listed stocks advanced while 32 retreated.  

Meanwhile, the MSCI Tadawul Index also gained 1.31 points, or 0.09 percent, to close at 1,455.96. 

The top-performing stock of the day was Saudi Research and Media Group, with its share price surging by 9.94 percent to SR236.60. 

Other top performers include Al-Baha Investment and Development Co. as well as the Mediterranean and Gulf Insurance and Reinsurance Co. 

The worst performer was Saudi Reinsurance Co., whose share price dropped by 6.69 percent to SR25.80.  

The top underperformers included Anaam International Holding Group and Al-Yamamah Steel Industries Co. 

On the announcements front, Almarai Co. released its interim condensed consolidated financial results for the period ending on June 30. 

According to a statement on Tadawul, the company reported a 10 percent increase in net profits, reaching SR1.3 billion in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period a year earlier.  

The rise in net profits is primarily attributed to higher revenue growth, effective cost management, a favorable product mix, and stable commodity costs.  

In addition, Saudi Advanced Industries Co. disclosed its interim financial results for the first half of 2024 in a bourse filing, reporting a net profit of SR217 million. This marks a 200 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023, driven by increased revenue despite rises in general and administrative expenses, financing costs, and zakat expenditures. 

Meanwhile, Jahez International Co. for International Systems Technology has initiated a transfer request to move from the parallel market to the main market.  

The request, approved by the board, was submitted via the regulatory online portal, as stated in a Tadawul statement. Further updates on the transfer process will be communicated as they unfold. 


ASEAN economies in stable state against external shocks, QNB says  

ASEAN economies in stable state against external shocks, QNB says  
Updated 07 July 2024
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ASEAN economies in stable state against external shocks, QNB says  

ASEAN economies in stable state against external shocks, QNB says  

RIYADH: Capital flows and economic resilience have positioned the Association of Southeast Asian Nations financial markets in a relatively stable state, according to Qatar National Bank.  

In its latest economic commentary, QNB highlighted the robustness of large ASEAN economies — Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines — against sudden changes in risk sentiment and capital flows.  

QNB’s analysis focused on assessing the external vulnerability of these economies, examining their external financing needs and the overall level of official foreign exchange reserves.  

The commentary noted that strong FX reserves act as a crucial buffer to absorb external shocks, and these reserves should be evaluated in context with short-term external financing requirements and other macroeconomic indicators.  

Thailand remains well positioned to handle sudden capital flow changes, even with international tourism not yet back to pre-pandemic levels.  

The country continues to run sizable current account surpluses, which have enabled it to accumulate $221 billion in official FX holdings, covering 209 percent of the International Monetary Fund reserve adequacy metric.

The IMF reserve adequacy metric assesses a country’s FX reserves to ensure they can cover short-term external debt, potential trade imbalances, import costs and capital flight risks, therefore maintaining financial stability and investor confidence.  

Malaysia, a major producer of manufacturing goods and commodities, also shows resilience. The country has consistently run current account surpluses as a net exporter of oil and soft commodities.  

Despite tighter reserve adequacy metrics compared with Thailand, Malaysia’s central bank holds $113 billion in FX holdings, covering 115 percent of the IMF reserve adequacy metric.  

The Philippines, as a net external borrower with current account deficits, faces different challenges. The country’s large trade deficit, partially offset by remittances from expatriates, is expected to amount to about 2 percent of gross domestic product.  

However, the Philippines holds $103 billion in official FX reserves, covering 196 percent of the IMF reserve adequacy metric, providing a significant cushion against external shocks.  

Indonesia, traditionally the most exposed to external shocks of the large ASEAN countries, has returned to a current account deficit position after a brief period of surplus driven by a commodity boom.  

The country is expected to run a current account deficit of about 1 percent of GDP this year, with the deficit likely to persist due to ongoing capital expenditure projects. 

Indonesia’s official FX reserves amount to $136 billion, covering 112 percent of the IMF reserve adequacy metric. 


Saudi Re boosts capital by $71m in PIF subscription deal

Saudi Re boosts capital by $71m in PIF subscription deal
Updated 07 July 2024
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Saudi Re boosts capital by $71m in PIF subscription deal

Saudi Re boosts capital by $71m in PIF subscription deal

RIYADH: Saudi Reinsurance Co. plans to increase its capital by SR267.3 million ($71 million) through a strategic subscription agreement with the Public Investment Fund, aimed at enhancing its financial position. 

The binding subscription agreement, signed on July 4, will see the Kingdom’s first reinsurance company raise its capital from SR891 million to SR1.15 billion. This increase will be achieved through the issuance of 26.73 million new ordinary shares, each valued at SR10, according to a recent bourse filing. 

The new shares, representing 30 percent of the company’s current capital, will be fully subscribed by PIF at a subscription price of SR16 per share, resulting in a total subscription amount of SR427.68 million.  

This transaction will give PIF a 23.08 percent ownership stake in the company following the capital increase.  

The agreement, initially outlined in a non-binding memorandum of understanding on Oct. 8, 2023, and extended on Dec. 25, 2023, for an additional six months, underscores the growing business environment within the Kingdom.  

Saudi Re’s capital increase, supported by PIF’s subscription, enhances its financial strength and competitive position.  

This capital increase aligns with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 goals, promoting a robust investment climate, economic diversification, and bolstering the Kingdom’s insurance sector. 

Finalization of the capital increase is subject to approvals from regulatory bodies including the Insurance Authority, Capital Market Authority, Saudi Stock Exchange, and the company’s Extraordinary General Assembly. 

Upon completion, Saudi Re will appoint three PIF-nominated members to its board of directors.  Al Rajhi Financial Co. is serving as the financial advisor to Saudi Reinsurance Co., while GIB Capital is advising PIF on the transaction. 

Earlier this year, the Kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund raised its stake in Middle East Paper Co. to 23.08 percent through a similar capital infusion. 

In a press statement, PIF stated that the deal will empower MEPCO to expand its production, enhance operational efficiency, and contribute to environmental stability. This move aligns with PIF’s sustainability goals and reflects its commitment to fostering environmentally responsible practices in the acquired company.  


World economic growth resilient in June despite PMI dip: S&P Global 

World economic growth resilient in June despite PMI dip: S&P Global 
Updated 07 July 2024
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World economic growth resilient in June despite PMI dip: S&P Global 

World economic growth resilient in June despite PMI dip: S&P Global 

RIYADH: International economic growth showed resilience in June, maintaining the second-highest level observed in the past 13 months, according to S&P Global’s latest report based on the Purchasing Managers’ Index. 

The JP Morgan global composite PMI, compiled by S&P Global, edged down to 52.9 in June from 53.7 in May. This slight decrease reflects a slowdown in the expansion rates of manufacturing production and service sector business activities worldwide. 

Amidst this global trend, Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector PMI stayed strong at 55 in June, fueled by rising demand, increased output levels, and a notable uptick in employment. 

A PMI reading above 50 signifies economic expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction. It measures economic trends in manufacturing based on monthly surveys of supply chain managers covering upstream and downstream activities. 

“The global all-industry output PMI stepped back 0.8 percentage points to 52.9 in June, with the decline fairly broad-based across sectors and regions. Although suggesting some momentum loss at midyear, the index is still consistent with a solid pace of expansion in global gross domestic product,” said Bennett Parrish, global economist at JP Morgan.  

He added: “Declines in the new orders and future output PMIs may raise the risk of growth moderating further, but another move up in the employment PMI suggests that underlying fundamentals remain resilient.”  

US and India growth accelerates 

The report highlighted accelerated PMI growth rates in the US, India, and Brazil. In the US, output expanded at the fastest pace since April 2022, driven by robust services activity which offset subdued manufacturing growth. 

India led the BRIC economies with strong growth momentum recovering from an election-related dip in May, marking one of its strongest performances in 14 years across goods and services sectors. 

Similarly, Brazil sustained strong expansion throughout the year with both service and manufacturing sectors contributing positively after a near-stalled growth in May. 

“June saw a further slight acceleration of growth in the US, bucking a broader developed world slowdown, while India continued to lead the emerging markets by a wide margin,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.  

In contrast, output fell in Canada, having risen briefly in May for the first time in a year, led by a weakened service sector. 

“Japan also slipped back into decline. Although only marginal, the downturn was the first recorded for seven months. A first fall in services sector output for 22 months was partly countered by a rise in manufacturing output for the first time in 13 months,” added Williamson.  

Russia reported a slight output contraction, marking its first decline in 17 months as a significant drop in services activity countered resilient manufacturing growth. 

Growth also slowed in China, albeit merely paying back some of the substantial gains witnessed in May to still register one of the strongest expansions over the past year. However, robust growth in the Asian giant’s manufacturing sector helped counter a marked slowing in services activities in June.  

Meanwhile, the UK reported an eighth successive monthly expansion. However, growth slowed in manufacturing and services to result in the weakest upturn this year, albeit partly blamed on a pause in spending ahead of the upcoming election, S&P Global added.  

Global sub-sectors stable 

The US-based firm noted that growth became more broad-based across all global sub-sectors amidst the slowing of expansion.  

“All of the 25 sub-sectors covered by the PMI avoided contraction globally in June for the first time since July 2021. Expansions were reported across the board bar general industrials, which reported stable output,” said Williamson.  

The report noted that output rose at the quickest pace in the financial services category, while solid expansions were also seen in the business services, consumer goods and intermediate goods sectors.  

However, the rate of expansion was relatively mild in the consumer services sector.  

“Other noteworthy developments include a two-year high for chemicals and plastics output and a 28-month high for forestry and paper products, while the autos and parts sector rounded off its best quarter since early 2021,” the analysis added.  

Global employment increased for the second consecutive month in June, with the pace of job growth reaching its highest in a year across both manufacturing and service sectors.  

“Stronger increases in staffing levels were initiated in both the manufacturing and service sectors, with the sharper increase again registered in the latter. Of the nations covered by the survey, only China and Germany saw reductions in staffing levels,” said S&P Global.  

Future outlook  

Looking ahead, S&P Global warned of darkening near-term global prospects in June, with business expectations for the year ahead reaching a seven-month low, particularly affected by post-election uncertainties in India and Europe, including the UK and France. 

“However, sentiment was also pulled lower by concern over the demand environment going forward, as reflected in a pull-back in new orders growth from May’s one-year high, which left backlogs of work largely unchanged again during the month. The latter is typically a sign of current capacity being sufficient to meet existing demand,” the agency concluded.