Global oil demand set to slow amid progressing energy transition: IEA

Global oil demand set to slow amid progressing energy transition: IEA
Lower oil demand in the coming years will ease market strains, according to IEA.
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Updated 12 June 2024
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Global oil demand set to slow amid progressing energy transition: IEA

Global oil demand set to slow amid progressing energy transition: IEA

RIYADH: Global oil demand growth is expected to slow in the coming years as the world continues its energy transition journey, according to a new analysis.

In its latest report, the International Energy Agency said that the world will witness an oil demand growth of 1 million barrels per day in 2024, a projection that contradicts the forecast of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. 

On June 11, OPEC said that oil demand globally would rise by 2.25 million bpd in 2024, driven by growth in markets like China, India, the Middle East, and Latin America. 

In its analysis, IEA noted that lower oil demand in the coming years will ease market strains and push spare capacity toward levels unseen outside of the COVID-19 crisis. 

“As the pandemic rebound loses steam, clean energy transitions advance, and the structure of China’s economy shifts, growth in global oil demand is slowing down and set to reach its peak by 2030. This year, we expect demand to rise by around 1 million barrels per day,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of IEA. 

Birol noted that oil companies should prepare to navigate the changes currently occurring in the energy sector. 

“This report’s projections, based on the latest data, show a major supply surplus emerging this decade, suggesting that oil companies may want to make sure their business strategies and plans are prepared for the changes taking place,” added Birol. 

The report also highlighted that surging sales of electric vehicles and the substitution of oil with renewables or gas in the power sector will significantly curb oil use in road transport and electricity generation.




Consumption of liquefied petroleum gas is set to grow, according to the IEA. Shutterstock

Emerging economies to drive oil demand in coming years

According to the report, global oil demand, which includes biofuels, averaged just over 102 million bpd in 2023 and will level off near 106 million bpd toward the end of this decade.

“Despite the slowdown in growth, global oil demand is still forecast to be 3.2 million bpd higher in 2030 than in 2023 unless stronger policy measures are implemented or changes in behavior take hold,” noted the energy think tank. 

The agency said that the increase is set to be driven by emerging economies in Asia — especially higher oil use for transport in India — and greater use of jet fuel and feedstocks from the booming petrochemicals industry, notably in China. 

Moreover, consumption of naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas and ethane will climb by 3.7 million bpd between 2023 and 2030, driven by growth in LPG use for clean cooking.

However, oil demand in advanced economies is expected to continue its decades-long decline, falling from close to 46 million bpd in 2023 to less than 43 million bpd by 2030. 

“Apart from during the pandemic, the last time oil demand from advanced economies was that low was in 1991,” IEA added. 

According to the report, producers outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, will lead the expansion of global production capacity to meet this anticipated demand primarily in emerging economies, accounting for three-quarters of the expected increase to 2030.

“The US alone is poised to account for 2.1 million bpd of non-OPEC+ gains, while Argentina, Brazil, Canada and Guyana contribute a further 2.7 million bpd. The report’s forecast finds that as the flow of approved projects fizzles out toward the end of this decade, capacity growth slows and then stalls among the leading non-OPEC+ producers,” the report said. 

It added: “However if companies continue to approve additional projects already on the drawing board, a further 1.3 million barrels per day of non-OPEC+ capacity could become operational by 2030.” 




OPEC is more optimistic about oil demand growth. Shutterstock

An outlook of refining capacity

The report highlighted that global refining capacity is on track to expand by 3.3 million bpd between 2023 and 2030, well below historical trends.

IEA added that this growth should be sufficient to meet the demand for refined oil products during this period, given a concurrent surge in the supply of non-refined fuels such as biofuels and natural gas liquids. 

The energy agency further pointed out that refiners will need to progressively modify their product output to meet divergent trends for distillates as gasoline demand falls amid an increase in the market share of electric vehicles while jet fuel consumption rises. 

According to IEA, non-refined fuel products are set to capture more than 75 percent of the projected demand growth over the 2023-2030 period. 

“This significant rise in non-refinery product supplies will add pressure on operating rates and refinery profitability, especially in mature demand centers. That raises the prospect of further capacity closures by the end of the decade,” said the report. 

It added: “Capacity growth will remain concentrated in Asia, most notably in China and India, but post‑2027, there are signs of expansions slowing.” 

OPEC confident about oil demand growth

Amid IEA’s projected slowdown in oil demand growth, OPEC is optimistic about the future, and the producers’ alliance believes its forecast is more accurate. 

Speaking at the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg on June 6, Haitham Al-Ghais, secretary-general of OPEC, said that the world will witness continued oil demand growth in the coming years. 

“Last year, OPEC’s forecast for oil demand was the best. And all those who criticized OPEC’s forecast kept adjusting their number throughout the year,” said Al-Ghais. 

He also made it clear that energy sources of all kinds are necessary for the future, and efforts should be taken to reduce emissions. 

“By 2030, we have a statistical projection that 600 million people will move to new cities, as a part of urbanization. This puts everything into context. We need all sources of energy. We should not discriminate any sources of energy. The focus should be on tackling emissions,” said Al-Ghais. 


Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in green at 11,434 

Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in green at 11,434 
Updated 06 May 2025
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in green at 11,434 

Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in green at 11,434 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index extended its upward momentum for a second straight day, gaining 11.13 points, or 0.10 percent, to close at 11,434.08 on Tuesday. 

The benchmark index recorded a total trading turnover of SR4.51 billion ($1.20 billion), with 83 stocks advancing and 152 declining. 

Saudi Arabia’s parallel market Nomu, however, dropped 190.20 points to close at 27,952.79. 

The MSCI Tadawul Index edged up 0.16 percent to 1,457.72. 

The top performer on the main market was Fawaz Abdulaziz Alhokair Co., also known as Cenomi Retail, which saw its share price surge 9.87 percent to SR15.58. 

Shares of Bupa Arabia for Cooperative Insurance Co. rose 3.59 percent to SR178.80, while Saudi Ceramic Co. gained 3.17 percent to reach SR29.30. 

Al-Etihad Cooperative Insurance Co. recorded the biggest decline of the day, with its share price slipping 7.69 percent to SR13.92. 

On the announcements front, United Electronics Co., also known as EXTRA, reported a net profit of SR103.44 million for the first quarter of 2025, marking a 10.2 percent increase compared to the same period last year.

In a Tadawul filing, the company attributed the rise to growth in its retail and consumer finance segments. EXTRA’s share price rose 0.11 percent to SR90.90. 

United International Holding Co. posted a net profit of SR57.81 million for the first quarter of 2025, up 10.42 percent year on year. The company said the increase was driven by a 25.3 percent rise in revenues, which reached SR174.65 million, compared to SR139.43 million in the same period last year. Its share price rose 0.59 percent to SR171.40. 

Saudi Printing and Packaging Co. widened its net loss to SR24.4 million in the first quarter of 2025, compared to SR22.62 million a year earlier. The company blamed the deeper loss on lower revenues from its printing and packaging divisions. Shares dropped 2.83 percent to SR12.34. 

Al-Etihad Cooperative Insurance Co. reported a net loss of SR11.91 million for the first quarter, reversing from a net profit of SR2.66 million in the year-earlier period. The insurer cited reduced revenue and a decline in gross earned premiums in the motor and medical segments as key reasons for the swing. Its stock closed down 7.69 percent at SR13.92.

Almoosa Health Co. announced a net profit of SR51.1 million for the first quarter of 2025, a surge of 272.99 percent year on year. The company said the sharp increase was driven by higher patient volumes and improved inpatient occupancy. Shares advanced 3.09 percent to SR167.

Saudi Arabian Mining Co., also known as Ma’aden, reported a net profit of SR1.54 billion for the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a sharp 57.88 percent increase compared to the same period in 2024. 

In a statement to Tadawul, the mining giant attributed the profit growth to higher commodity prices across all its product lines. 

The company’s revenue for the quarter reached SR8.51 billion, marking a 15.82 percent year-on-year rise. 

“We are off to a great start in 2025. We are building on the momentum of last year and continuing our progress across all operations, with strong production results, safety improvements, exploration success, project advancement and portfolio consolidation,” said Robert Wilt, CEO of Ma’aden.  

He added: “Looking ahead our strong financial position and focus on operational excellence positions us well to navigate the current market uncertainty. We will continue to drive value for our shareholders and develop mining as the third pillar of the Saudi economy.”  


Saudi Arabia’s revised 2024 capital investment rises to $355bn, surpassing target by 38%

Saudi Arabia’s revised 2024 capital investment rises to $355bn, surpassing target by 38%
Updated 06 May 2025
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Saudi Arabia’s revised 2024 capital investment rises to $355bn, surpassing target by 38%

Saudi Arabia’s revised 2024 capital investment rises to $355bn, surpassing target by 38%

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s gross fixed capital formation reached SR1.33 trillion ($355 billion) in 2024, reflecting a 4.5 percent annual increase, according to updated data released by the Ministry of Investment. 

This figure exceeded the ministry’s original target of SR964 billion by 38 percent, underscoring strong momentum in the Kingdom’s capital investment cycle and signaling continued progress toward Vision 2030 objectives. 

The updated breakdown shows that private sector investments grew by 11 percent annually in 2024 to reach SR1.19 trillion, now accounting for 89.16 percent of total GFCF. 

Meanwhile, government sector investment declined by 29.4 percent to SR144.3 billion, representing just 10.84 percent of total capital formation. The figures highlight the country’s growing reliance on private investment to drive sustainable growth. 

GFCF rose to 29 percent of gross domestic product, surpassing the National Investment Strategy target of 26 percent, signaling growing investor confidence and effective policy implementation, according to the ministry. 

The GFCF metric—an indicator of long-term economic health—tracks net investment in fixed assets across infrastructure, industry, real estate, and tourism. Higher capital formation is typically associated with greater productive capacity and stronger future growth. 

These investment gains come amid a broader push by the Ministry of Investment and the newly established Saudi Investment Promotion Authority to strengthen Saudi Arabia’s position as a global investment hub. 

Through its InvestSaudi platform, the authority has launched wide-ranging initiatives to attract domestic and international capital. 

Efforts include a revamped national investment portal that highlights 15 priority sectors with tailored incentive packages, alongside the rollout of the 2025 Investment Law, which streamlines licensing and regulatory processes across industries. 

Internationally, Minister of Investment Khalid Al-Falih has led roadshows and delegations across Asia, the Americas, and Europe—regions that collectively account for a significant share of the Kingdom’s foreign direct investment inflows. 

Al-Falih has emphasized Asia as a key focus, noting that six of Saudi Arabia’s top 10 FDI source countries are from the region. Domestically, he continues to promote Saudi investment opportunities at major economic forums and sector-specific conferences, positioning the Kingdom’s transformation as a compelling investment narrative. 

Together, these outreach efforts, combined with a growing pipeline of mega-projects such as NEOM, the Red Sea, and Diriyah Gate, are shaping a dynamic investment landscape and reinforcing the Kingdom’s appeal to both regional and global investors.


Saudi Arabia leads 106% rise in MENA IPO proceeds across Q1: EY

Saudi Arabia leads 106% rise in MENA IPO proceeds across Q1: EY
Updated 06 May 2025
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Saudi Arabia leads 106% rise in MENA IPO proceeds across Q1: EY

Saudi Arabia leads 106% rise in MENA IPO proceeds across Q1: EY

RIYADH: Proceeds from initial public offerings across the Middle East and North Africa saw a 106 percent annual rise in the first quarter of 2025, fueled by Saudi Arabia, according to an analysis. 

In its latest report, professional services networking firm EY said the MENA region raised $2.1 billion through 14 IPOs — a year-on-year rise of four —  in the three months to the end of March.

Over the period, 12 of the 14 listings happened in the Kingdom, with five IPOs taking place on the Tadawul benchmark index, and seven occurring on Saudi Arabia’s parallel market, Nomu. 

In recent years, the Kingdom has emerged as a hotspot for listings, fueled by robust economic reforms, diversification efforts away from oil dependence, and growing interest from regional and international investors.

In January, a separate report released by Kamco Invest said that Saudi Arabia led the GCC IPO market in 2024, earning a global ranking of seventh in total IPO proceeds. 

Commenting on activities in the first quarter, Brad Watson, MENA EY-Parthenon leader, said: “This year started on a positive note. MENA capital markets continue to show resilience, with the total IPO value more than doubling compared to the same period last year.” 

He added: “Saudi Arabia continues to dominate the MENA region’s market in terms of activity as well as proceeds. In addition, the IPO pipeline for the rest of the year remains robust across various sectors and multiple countries.” 

According to the latest report, the Kingdom’s Tadawul main market welcomed the largest offering in the MENA region during the first quarter of this year, with Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Co. raising $523 million, contributing to 22 percent of the overall IPO proceeds. 

This was followed by Almoosa Health Group, which accounted for 19 percent with $450 million, and Derayah Financial with $400 million. 

Overall, the Tadawul main market generated $1.8 billion in total proceeds, while Nomu raised $69 million. 

EY revealed that 28 percent of the IPO funds raised in Saudi Arabia came from the real estate management sector, followed by healthcare equipment and services at 24 percent, financial services at 21 percent, and consumer discretionary and retail at 17 percent. 

In the first quarter of this year, the UAE witnessed one IPO on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange, with Alpha Data PJSC raising $163 million. 

Oman’s Muscat Stock Exchange saw one IPO, with Asyad Shipping Co. raising $333 million.

“The increased demand for MENA listings has led to developments in market infrastructure through new products, enhanced governance standards, and a focus on transparency and accountability,” said EY MENA IPO and Transaction Diligence Leader, Gregory Hughes.

He added: “The upward trajectory in the number of IPOs across the region reflects a wider trend of sector diversification, with investors and companies increasingly looking beyond traditional oil-based industries.”

EY further said that the outlook for MENA IPOs for the rest of 2025 remains positive, with 21 companies intending to list on the region’s exchanges across various sectors. 

According to EY, Saudi Arabia remains the frontrunner in this pipeline, with 17 companies already receiving approval from the Kingdom’s Capital Markets Authority. 

In the UAE, three companies have announced their plans to list, and outside the GCC, Egypt has announced one IPO.

“In 2025, we can potentially expect to see an increase in IPOs from the technology sector, including online retail, fintech, foodtech, and classifieds,” said Hughes. 


Saudi Arabia sees no rival to US in capital markets, says Al-Falih 

Saudi Arabia sees no rival to US in capital markets, says Al-Falih 
Updated 06 May 2025
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Saudi Arabia sees no rival to US in capital markets, says Al-Falih 

Saudi Arabia sees no rival to US in capital markets, says Al-Falih 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia views the US as unmatched in both capital markets and innovation, with no close competitor, and continues to actively invest in American institutions, a senior official stated. 

Speaking during a panel discussion at the Milken Institute in Los Angeles, Saudi Investment Minister Khalid Al-Falih stated that the Kingdom continues to trust and engage with US-based partners as part of its long-term economic strategy.   

“There is no close competitor to the US in many aspects, certainly capital markets, their depth and their breadth, and also the innovation spirit,” Al-Falih said.   

He added that in the last three or four years, there has been widespread discussion about the next tectonic shift in “how we live and how we do business and how we govern, driven by AI, which is primarily a US innovation.”  

Al-Falih further emphasized the Kingdom’s continued engagement with American institutions: “Our trust in the US remains strong, and we continue to work with American companies and financial institutions. We also invest in the US for the same reasons I mentioned.” 

He acknowledged that while the global economic landscape is undergoing a transformation, the US continues to stand out for its ability to drive technological revolutions — particularly in artificial intelligence — and for its deep-rooted institutional strength.  

The minister noted that current shifts in global influence are part of a long-term trend that has seen emerging markets gain ground, with the G7’s share of global gross domestic product declining from 60 percent to 40 percent over the past decades. 

“There has been sort of a democratization of some of the things that, psychologically, Western countries — including the US — thought they had forever, and you’re seeing many countries today are able to innovate on their own and compete,” he said. 

Addressing broader geopolitical and economic turbulence, Al-Falih said Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council economies have developed the resilience to weather global shocks, including energy price volatility and regional disruptions such as the Red Sea shipping crisis. 

“In the Middle East, I will just say at this outset that we have built, over the years — for unfortunate reasons — a lot of resilience because we’re used to shocks. We’re used to security challenges, and we have the mechanisms to absorb different types of shocks,” Al-Falih said.  

Despite global uncertainties, he said the Kingdom continues to see robust investment growth — both local and foreign — driven by confidence in Saudi Arabia’s economic reforms and strategic positioning. 

“I can tell you, as minister of investment, we’re seeing very healthy investment continuing to happen in the Kingdom. A lot of it is local — driven by our private sector and our sovereign wealth fund — but a significant growth year on year from foreign investors who… do believe that, in the overall balance of things, there is more opportunity than risk,” he said. 

The minister concluded by emphasizing that the GCC, and Saudi Arabia in particular, offers favorable risk-return trade-offs for international investors seeking long-term opportunities. 

“We are working relentlessly to make Saudi Arabia the world’s most attractive investment destination — not merely a facilitator of investments,” the minister said.

Al-Falih noted that the Kingdom offers investors an “integrated, end-to-end service that supports them throughout their entire journey.”

He described the Kingdom’s brand as dynamic, stating: “A nation’s brand is never static; it evolves with history and global developments.”

On the energy transition, the minister cautioned: “If we rush without proper planning, we risk severe disruptions — as witnessed in the Iberian Peninsula.”

“Energy must be affordable, reliable, and sustainable — this is the cornerstone of any successful policy,” he added.

Al-Falih concluded by reaffirming the Kingdom’s strength stating: “We possess the financial reserves and tools necessary to absorb global shocks and continue progressing.”

In January, Saudi Arabia announced plans to expand its trade and investment ties with the US to at least $600 billion over the next four years, according to the Saudi Press Agency.


Saudi, Egypt step up investment ties with incentives across key sectors

Saudi, Egypt step up investment ties with incentives across key sectors
Updated 06 May 2025
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Saudi, Egypt step up investment ties with incentives across key sectors

Saudi, Egypt step up investment ties with incentives across key sectors

RIYADH: New incentives to boost trade, investment, and cooperation were discussed at the Saudi-Egyptian Business Forum in Cairo.

Organized by the Federation of Saudi Chambers and Egypt’s General Authority for Investment and Free Zones on May 5, the business forum focused on sectors including industry, real estate development, tourism, and special economic zones, the Saudi Press Agency reported. 

The renewed push comes after Egypt’s parliament ratified a bilateral investment protection agreement with the Kingdom in March, aimed at enhancing capital inflows, creating jobs, and strengthening economic cooperation. 

It also marks a continuation of Saudi financial support for Egypt, including a $5 billion deposit in 2022 that brought total deposits from the Kingdom in the north African country’s central bank to $10.3 billion. 

“Assistant Minister of Investment and CEO of the Saudi Investment Promotion Authority Ibrahim Al-Mubarak stated that the investment protection and promotion agreement between Saudi Arabia and Egypt created a reality for investment cooperation,” the SPA report stated. 

“He emphasized that Saudi Arabia will remain a leading investment partner for Egypt, noting that SIPA has granted 7,000 licenses for Egyptian investments in the Kingdom while trade between the two countries reached SR60 billion ($15.9 billion) in 2024, marking a 29 percent increase,” it added. 

Egypt is working to strengthen its investment climate with policy and infrastructure reforms, said Hossam Heiba, CEO of Egypt’s General Authority for Investment and Free Zones. He noted that a dedicated unit has been created to manage Saudi investment affairs and facilitate project delivery. 

At the forum, officials from the Kingdom highlighted plans to boost investment via special economic zones focused on sectors such as cloud computing, logistics, and automotive manufacturing, as well as shipbuilding, food, mining, and pharmaceuticals. 

Saudi Arabia is also pushing its National Initiative for Global Supply Chains to strengthen regional and global connectivity in key sectors. 

The event builds on momentum from April’s Saudi-Egyptian Industrial Forum in Riyadh, where officials emphasized industrial integration and trade facilitation.

At the time, the Kingdom’s Industry Minister Bandar Alkhorayef said the Saudi Export-Import Bank had completed SR1.3 billion in operations with Egypt, underlining the depth of bilateral ties.