Oil and gas industry needs $4.3tn in investments by 2030: IEF

Oil and gas industry needs $4.3tn in investments by 2030: IEF
According to the report, global upstream oil and gas capital expenditure is expected to grow by $24 billion this year, surpassing $600 billion for the first time in a decade. Shutterstock
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Updated 06 June 2024
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Oil and gas industry needs $4.3tn in investments by 2030: IEF

Oil and gas industry needs $4.3tn in investments by 2030: IEF

RIYADH: The oil and gas industry will need cumulative investments worth $4.3 trillion from 2025 to 2030 to meet growing demand and maintain market stability, according to an analysis. 

In its latest report, the International Energy Forum said that the increasing capital expenditure needs are based on an outlook that sees demand for oil rising from 103 million barrels per day in 2023 to 110 million bpd in 2030. 

“More investment in new oil and gas supply is needed to meet growing demand and maintain energy market stability, which is the foundation of global economic and social wellbeing,” said Joseph McMonigle, secretary general of the IEF. 

He added: “Well-supplied and stable energy markets are critical to making progress on climate because the alternative is high prices and volatility, which undermines public support for the transition as we have seen in the past two years.” 

An outlook on global upstream oil and gas capex

According to the report, global upstream oil and gas capital expenditure is expected to grow by $24 billion this year, surpassing $600 billion for the first time in a decade. 

IEF highlighted that annual investment must grow by another $135 billion, or 22 percent, to $738 billion by 2030 to ensure adequate supply.

“This estimate for 2030 is 15 percent higher than we assessed a year ago and 41 percent higher than assessed two years ago due primarily to rising costs and a stronger demand outlook,” said the energy think tank in the report, which was released in association with S&P Global. 

Roger Diwan, vice president at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said that expected production declines and future demand growth will require re-investing existing cash flows even as the transition proceeds.

According to the energy think tank, North America and Latin America will dominate the projected increase in upstream capital expenditure between now and 2030, with over 60 percent of the overall global investments set to happen in the region. 

“While North America is expected to be the largest driver of capex growth to 2030, Latin America will continue to play an increasingly significant role in non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) supply growth, particularly for conventional crude, with expansions planned for Brazil and Guyana,” said IEF. 

It added: “Around 2.2 million bpd in new or expanded conventional projects have been approved and are expected to be produced in Latin America by 2030 – this is more than a third of the total 6 million bpd that has been sanctioned globally.” 

The report also noted significant uncertainty around the trajectory for global oil and gas demand and the pace of the energy transition to net zero carbon dioxide emissions. 

“Base-case forecasts from consensus-leading organizations diverge by as much as 7 million bpd for 2030 and this gap widens to 27 million bpd when more ambitious climate scenarios are included,” said the energy think tank. 

Increased investment supports energy transition

According to IEF, a rise in capital expenditure in upstream oil and gas could support energy transition and ensure energy security. 

“A just, orderly, and equitable energy transition requires a foundation of energy security. The past two years have demonstrated the consequences of disorderly transitions: price shocks, shortages, disruptions, political backlash, bitter divisions, and conflict,” said the report. 

It added: “Ensuring adequate investment levels can help provide stability and enable a just transition. But it will require the market to remain nimble and flexible to overcome potential hurdles and adapt to new realities.” 

IEF, however, highlighted that global conventional crude production would fall by over 20 percent by 2035 without additional drilling. 

The energy think tank added that investments in the oil and gas sector made this decade will impact production levels well into the next decade and beyond. 

“Continued upstream investment is needed first to offset expected production declines and then to meet future demand growth. Without additional drilling, we estimate that conventional non-OPEC production would decline by 9 million bpdby 2030 and 14 million bpd by 2035,” said IEF. 

It added: “The decline rates for non-conventional crude, including US shale, are significantly steeper and would see more than 80 percent decline in the next decade.” 

The analysis also revealed that oil and gas companies worldwide have increased their spending to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. 

“The upstream sector accounts for around 60 percent of the oil and gas industry’s greenhouse gas emissions. Companies are increasingly focused on reducing Scope 1 and 2 emissions in their upstream operations to meet regulatory requirements, investor expectations, and environmental goals,” said the report. 

Scope 1 emissions are “direct emissions” from sources owned or controlled by the company, while Scope 2 denotes emissions released into the atmosphere from the use of purchased energy. 

These are also known as indirect emissions, as they are generated at another facility, such as a power station.

According to the report, the increased focus on upstream decarbonization has also contributed to the upwardly revised capex forecast. 

IEF also highlighted that energy companies’ strong profits in the past couple of years have helped them invest in capital expenditures directly from operating cash flow, ultimately reducing reliance on debt financing. 

“This is a notable change from COVID and pre-COVID years when the primary constraint on investment was capital availability due to weak cash flow, reliance on external capital, and depressed investor appetite,” the release added. 

In an additional report released in May, IEF said that to meet widespread electric vehicle targets, the world needs to mine more than double the amount of copper ever excavated in human history. 

The analysis noted that electrifying the global vehicle fleet would necessitate the opening of 55 percent more new copper mines by 2035 – and this expansion needs to be encouraged by governments.


Aramco to increase borrowing, focus on dividend growth, CFO says

Aramco to increase borrowing, focus on dividend growth, CFO says
Updated 15 sec ago
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Aramco to increase borrowing, focus on dividend growth, CFO says

Aramco to increase borrowing, focus on dividend growth, CFO says

RIYADH: Saudi Aramco plans to increase borrowing and focus on enhancing its dividend distribution strategy, revealed the company’s chief financial officer. 

In an interview with Bloomberg, Ziad Al-Murshed explained that this move is part of the company’s efforts to optimize its capital structure. 

Aramco is considered one of the pillars of the Saudi economy, encompassing the entire oil production chain, from hydrocarbon extraction to energy generation, as well as refining and commercial distribution activities.  

“You’ll see us do a couple of things. One is, just take on more debt compared to use of equity,” Al-Murshed said during the interview. 

“It’s nothing to do with the dividend, it is optimizing our capital structure so that we end up with a lower weighted average cost of capital,” he added. 

Aramco returned to the debt market earlier this year after a three-year hiatus, raising $9 billion in two separate issuances. In June, it launched a $6 billion offering of dollar-denominated bonds, followed by a $3 billion issuance of Islamic bonds in September.   

The CFO noted: “We had the luxury of sitting out those three years until the market became conducive.” 

Al-Murshed provided insight into how the company increased its dividend by 4 percent in each of the past two years and is now paying over $81 billion in base dividends. 

“We’re looking for it to be progressive over the years,” he said, adding that the company’s free cash flow supports this strategy. 

While the company plans to issue debt regularly, Al-Murshed emphasized that it will not be overly frequent and revealed that Aramco has no plans to sell more debt for the remainder of 2024. 

“We want to be active, but we don’t want to be too active,” he said. 

The CFO further clarified that the company’s decision to sell debt is primarily aimed at broadening its investor base. 

Al-Murshed did not specify whether Aramco would borrow to support its dividend payments, which are set to total $124 billion this year, exceeding the company’s earnings. 

Earlier this month, Aramco reported a net profit of SR103.37 billion ($27.52 billion) for the third quarter of 2024, exceeding analyst expectations, which had projected a median net income of $26.9 billion. 

However, in a statement released at the time, the company noted a 15.4 percent decline in net profit compared to the same period in 2023, attributed to challenging market conditions, including lower prices for crude oil, refined products, and chemicals. 

Aramco’s vision remains to be the world’s leading integrated energy and chemicals company, operating in a safe, sustainable, and reliable manner.   


Saudi Arabia's Ma’aden proceeds with $10bn capital raise to boost phosphate stake

Saudi Arabia's Ma’aden proceeds with $10bn capital raise to boost phosphate stake
Updated 10 min 22 sec ago
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Saudi Arabia's Ma’aden proceeds with $10bn capital raise to boost phosphate stake

Saudi Arabia's Ma’aden proceeds with $10bn capital raise to boost phosphate stake
  • Ma’aden said its shareholders will convene virtually on Dec. 11 to approve the capital increase
  • Plan includes issuing 111 million new ordinary shares valued at SR10 each

RIYADH: Saudi Arabian Mining Co., or Ma’aden, has issued a shareholder circular outlining the terms of its plan to raise its share capital to SR38.03 billion ($10.1 billion) from SR36.92 billion to boost its phosphate business. 

The move follows an earlier announcement to acquire a 25 percent stake in Ma’aden Wa’ad Al-Shamal Phosphate Co. from Mosaic Phosphates B.V., increasing its ownership in the joint venture to 85 percent. 

In April, Ma’aden announced the signing of an agreement to acquire 210.93 million shares owned by Mosaic Co. and its subsidiary, Mosaic Phosphates B.V. Regulatory approval for the transaction was granted in November by the Capital Market Authority.

In a bourse filing, Ma’aden said its shareholders will convene virtually on Dec. 11 to approve the capital increase. The plan includes issuing 111 million new ordinary shares valued at SR10 each, representing a 3.01 percent rise in the company’s share capital. 

In exchange, Mosaic Phosphates will transfer its MWSPC stake to Ma’aden, aligning with the Saudi firm’s strategic expansion in the phosphate sector. 

MWSPC, established in 2014 and based in Turaif, is a joint venture between Ma’aden, Mosaic Co., and Saudi Basic Industries Corp. Following the transaction, SABIC will retain its 15 percent stake while Ma’aden strengthens its position as a global phosphate leader. 

Mosaic Netherlands Holding Co., a subsidiary of Mosaic Co., will receive the newly issued shares, which will be subject to a three-year lock-up period. Limited transfers will begin in the fourth year, with full tradability by the fifth year, the circular said. 

The acquisition will enhance Ma’aden’s control over MWSPC, recognized as a low-cost, large-scale phosphate producer. It will also grant Ma’aden access to Mosaic’s marketing rights, a component of the deal’s valuation at SR5.62 billion. 

Ma’aden expects increased earnings per share following the transaction, reflecting anticipated synergies and enhanced operational efficiencies, according to the document. 

The company assured shareholders that all regulatory approvals for the transaction have been secured, with a detailed timeline for procedural steps provided in the circular. 

The move underscores Ma’aden’s commitment to driving value creation in the Kingdom’s mining sector, aligning with Saudi Vision 2030 goals to diversify the economy and develop industrial capabilities. 

In the first half of this year, Ma’aden achieved a net profit of SR2 billion, marking a 160 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023. 

The surge in profitability was driven by several key factors. A major contributor to this financial success was the significant boost in sales volume, according to a Tadawul statement. 

The company’s robust performance in primary aluminum and gold sales played a crucial role in driving up revenues. Ma’aden also benefited from reductions in raw material costs and lower depreciation expenses, which further enhanced its profitability. 

Ma’aden’s performance and strategic advancements underscore its commitment to leading the mining sector and contributing to Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification goals, particularly in developing mining as a critical pillar of the Kingdom’s industry. 


Saudi Urban 20 delegation emphasizes need for frameworks to tackle development issues 

Saudi Urban 20 delegation emphasizes need for frameworks to tackle development issues 
Updated 21 November 2024
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Saudi Urban 20 delegation emphasizes need for frameworks to tackle development issues 

Saudi Urban 20 delegation emphasizes need for frameworks to tackle development issues 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia emphasized the need for comprehensive strategic frameworks to tackle global economic, climate, and development challenges during the seventh Urban 20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro. 

A delegation led by Fahd Al-Rasheed, adviser to the General Secretariat of the Saudi Council of Ministers, participated in several key discussions at the event, highlighting the Kingdom’s urban development strategies and its commitment to sustainability, social inclusion, and economic empowerment on a global scale. 

Speaking about the country’s approach to urban transformation, Al-Rasheed said: “Saudi Arabia has adopted a comprehensive strategic framework for urban development and transformation that empowers city leadership to pursue the initiatives that drive their growth and success.” 

He also underlined that the U20, which unites cities from G20 member states, is vital in facilitating tools such as financing models to support cities in achieving their goals. 

Al-Rasheed gave those remarks during a panel discussion titled “Empowering Cities on their Own Paths to Development,” which included global urban leaders such as Edward Glaeser of Harvard University, Nasiphi Moya, mayor of Pretoria, and Kate Gallego, mayor of Phoenix. 

At the summit, Al-Rasheed also attended the launch of the first U20 book, a compilation of insights from global urbanists addressing shared challenges faced by metropolizes. 

His contribution, titled “Enlightened City Leadership: A New Model for a Sustainable Urban Future,” highlighted the importance of training city leaders to manage the complexities of modern urban administration. 

“Delivering on urban development imperatives requires comprehensive strategic planning that embraces governance, resourcing, and competitive advantage,” he remarked. 

Al-Rasheed pointed to projections that cities with populations exceeding 1 million will increase from 700 today to 1,600 by 2080. 

To meet the growing demand, he underlined that approximately 2 million urban leadership professionals will need to be trained over the next 35 years. 

“Urban development plans must include mechanisms to address pervasive issues, including poverty and social inclusion while preparing the next generation of city leaders to confront the deluge of challenges that cities will continue to face worldwide,” he said. 

The Urban 20 event in Brazil. Supplied

Al-Rasheed further explained that although many institutions offer training in disciplines such as urban planning, civil engineering, and public administration, there remains a lack of programs providing a comprehensive curriculum specifically focused on preparing city leaders to address both the technical and socioeconomic aspects of their roles. 

The U20 summit concluded with a closed-door session attended by Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, president of Brazil, where Al-Rasheed reiterated the Kingdom’s commitment to sustainability and social equity in urban development. 

“We are proud to represent Saudi Arabia’s unique perspective and experience in urban development on this important global stage,” he said, according to press release, adding: “We look forward to continuing Saudi Arabia’s legacy of leadership at the Urban 20 and to continuing our work with urban leaders from around the world to unify city voices around common challenges.” 

Among the highlights of the delegation’s activities was a mayoral dinner co-hosted by Al-Rasheed and Eduardo Paes, mayor of Rio de Janeiro and chair of this year’s Urban 20. 

The event brought together more than 100 city leaders, including the mayors of major cities such as Paris, Pretoria, Helsinki, and Phoenix, to celebrate civic leadership and its impact on urban development. 

Representatives from multinational organizations, such as Anaclaudia Rossbach, executive director of UN-Habitat, also attended the gathering.

In his opening remarks at the dinner, Al-Rasheed said: “Mayoral leadership calls for a unique combination of abilities to anticipate and navigate future trends, including technological disruptions, economic shifts, and demographic changes, while demonstrating the social sensitivity to care for and improve citizens’ daily lives.” 

He added: “By convening senior city leaders from around the world to address the common challenges of urban development and city leadership, Saudi Arabia continues to demonstrate its commitment to global collaboration in the spirit of the Urban 20.”


British Airways reverses plan to axe Bahrain flights amid outcry

British Airways reverses plan to axe Bahrain flights amid outcry
Updated 21 November 2024
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British Airways reverses plan to axe Bahrain flights amid outcry

British Airways reverses plan to axe Bahrain flights amid outcry
  • Ex-UK defense secretary: Cancelation would have sent ‘totally the wrong message’
  • Decision to scrap Kuwait route remains ‘under review’

LONDON: British Airways has reversed a decision to scrap direct flights to Bahrain following a backlash, the Daily Mail reported.

However, flights to nearby Kuwait are still set to be suspended in March as part of previous plans aimed at tackling financially unviable flights at the airline.

Earlier this month, the Mail reported that BA had planned to cancel the Bahrain and Kuwait routes after almost a century of service.

The Gulf states have long had close ties to Britain, and the decision reportedly angered officials in Manama. Airline staff who served on the two routes were also set to lose their jobs.

Though the Kuwait route axing remains “under review,” the initial decision to cancel the Bahrain route would have sent “totally the wrong message” about the UK’s diplomatic stance toward the Gulf region, former Defense Secretary Liam Fox told the Mail.

Thousands of residents in Bahrain with close ties to the UK launched a petition demanding that the route remain available.

Bahrain hosts a Royal Navy base at Mina Salman Port, and the country has long had close commercial and trade ties with the UK.

BA said in a statement: “Following discussions with our partners and stakeholders, we can confirm we will operate a service between London Heathrow and Bahrain International Airport three times a week from the start of the summer 2025 season. This will increase to a daily service from the start of the Winter 2025 season.”

BA’s predecessor Imperial Airways first launched flights to Bahrain in 1971.

Manama became a key financial hub in the Gulf partly due to the presence of London-based Standard Chartered, which set up the country’s first bank in 1920.

Bahrain’s sovereign wealth fund, the Mumtalakat, owns McLaren, the UK luxury automotive manufacturer.

The fund plans to expand its British holdings through a series of investments, the Mail reported earlier this year.

The UK is also negotiating a free trade deal with the Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Bahrain and Kuwait.

The six GCC countries combined represent the UK’s fourth-largest export market after the US, the EU and China.

Mohamed Yousif Al-Binfalah, chief of the Bahrain Airport Co., said: “We are delighted to witness British Airways continue operations at Bahrain International Airport.

“As the oldest airline operating out of Bahrain for over 92 years, the enduring partnership with British Airways is a testament to our shared commitment to excellence.”


Saudi GDP to receive $3bn boost after raft of deals at Local Content Forum

Saudi GDP to receive $3bn boost after raft of deals at Local Content Forum
Updated 21 November 2024
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Saudi GDP to receive $3bn boost after raft of deals at Local Content Forum

Saudi GDP to receive $3bn boost after raft of deals at Local Content Forum

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia launched initiatives and signed 15 agreements at the Local Content Forum, boosting domestic industries with an estimated SR12.4 billion ($3.3 billion) impact on gross domestic product. 

The deals, signed on the first day of the three-day event in Riyadh, span multiple strategic sectors, including manufacturing, technology, and transportation. 

The Local Content and Government Procurement Authority launched several initiatives aimed at driving the localization of key industries, aligning with broader economic goals. 

The agreements include partnerships designed to localize manufacturing, transfer knowledge, and foster innovation, the Saudi Press Agency reported. 

Key deals included:  

  • Two agreements with Saudi National Automotive Manufacturing Co. to localize and transfer knowledge for multi-purpose vehicles and light transport vehicles. 
  • Five agreements with NAFFCO for the localization of firefighting products, including dry powder extinguishers, trailer-mounted pumps, complete personal breathing devices, various types of fire extinguishers, and fire hoses. 
  • Agreements with Alfanar and Hewlett Packard Enterprise to localize and transfer knowledge for data center servers. 
  • A deal with InnovEra to localize manufacturing and knowledge transfer of directional devices. 
  • An agreement with Al-Salah Arabia to localize the manufacturing of bridge expansion joints. 
  • A partnership with Saffen Co. for the localization of oxygen sensor production. 
  • A deal with SAJA Pharmaceutical Co. for the production of “Empagliflozin.” 
  • An agreement with Coastal Co. to localize stadium seat manufacturing. 

Wattenha program 

Sadara Chemical Co. launched its “Wattenha” program, highlighting its contribution to Saudi Arabia’s localization efforts. The program aims to support domestic suppliers, develop human capital, and enhance manufacturing capabilities. 

In the first half of 2024, Sadara reported a local content rate of 50.25 percent, surpassing industry benchmarks, with SR3 billion spent on Saudi procurement.

Locally manufactured products made up 43 percent of its offerings, and Saudization reached 77.8 percent, according to a press release. 

A notable achievement is Sadara’s pipeline system connecting its facilities to the PlasChem complex, which supplies critical raw materials like ethylene oxide and propylene oxide, reducing costs and reliance on imports. 

Logistics and transportation 

Saudi Arabia Railways, in partnership with LCGPA, launched a SR15 billion Saudization program in the sector. This initiative, unveiled by Minister of Transport and Logistics Saleh Al-Jasser, aims to localize manufacturing, boost operational efficiency, and create up to 3,000 jobs by 2030. 

The minister emphasized that this program reflects the partnership between SAR and the private sector, in collaboration with the LCGPA, according to SPA. 

Automotive manufacturing 

The forum also highlighted the Kingdom’s plans for the automotive industry, including the goal to produce 500,000 vehicles annually by 2030. 

Ongoing negotiations with Hyundai underline Saudi Arabia’s commitment to becoming a hub for automobile manufacturing. 

The Global Supply Chain Resilience Initiative, valued at SR100 billion, is driving 95 strategic projects, with a focus on value chain development and export promotion. Additionally, three automotive manufacturing complexes were announced, furthering the localization of this critical sector. 

Diverse initiatives 

The forum featured discussions on the future of local content in industries such as agriculture, energy, and industrial services. Programs introduced by the LCGPA aim to reduce reliance on imports, enhance local supply chain resilience, and foster innovation. 

The “Golden Category” of the Made in Saudi program was also launched, aimed at integrating local suppliers into global supply chains and highlighting Saudi-made products on the world stage. 

The initiative, overseen by the Saudi Export Development Authority, promotes local products and supports exports. 

Minister of Investment Khalid Al-Falih emphasized that local content is a crucial driver of the economy, impacting key industries such as energy, industry, and tourism, among others. 

He highlighted that achieving growth targets requires a highly competitive investment climate, with the private sector playing a vital role in boosting the Kingdom’s exports while meeting the demands of its growing economy. 

Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar bin Ibrahim Alkhorayef further emphasized the importance of locally produced products that offer high quality and competitive advantages as a key requirement for achieving local content goals and maximizing its economic impact. 

During his remarks at the forum, Alkhorayef stated that local content is one of the central pillars for achieving Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, as its development directly influences the execution of the initiative’s programs. 

Alkhorayef also discussed the significant role of the private sector in advancing local content development, noting that the LCGPA implements local content through fostering strategic partnerships and facilitating the Local Content Coordination Council. 

This council includes several major national companies, which have worked closely with the authority to increase local content in their operations and procurements.