Does escalating tit for tat between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah make a full-scale war inevitable?

Analysis Does escalating tit for tat between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah make a full-scale war inevitable?
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Fires burn as a result of rockets launched from Lebanon into northern Israel, next to the city of Kiryat Shmona near the Lebanon border, on June 3, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border clashes between Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters. (AFP)
Analysis Does escalating tit for tat between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah make a full-scale war inevitable?
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Fires burn as a result of rockets launched from Lebanon into northern Israel, next to the city of Kiryat Shmona near the Lebanon border, on June 3, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border clashes between Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters. (AFP)
Analysis Does escalating tit for tat between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah make a full-scale war inevitable?
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Updated 06 June 2024
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Does escalating tit for tat between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah make a full-scale war inevitable?

Does escalating tit for tat between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah make a full-scale war inevitable?
  • In the absence of a diplomatic breakthrough, the violence has expanded both in scope and intensity in recent weeks
  • Since October, at least 455 people have died in Lebanon, including 88 civilians, and at least 14 soldiers and 11 civilians in Israel

DUBAI: Tit-for-tat exchanges between Israel and Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah militia have continued to escalate since violence along the shared border first erupted in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel that sparked the Gaza conflict.

In the absence of a diplomatic breakthrough, the low-intensity conflict has expanded both in scope and intensity in recent weeks, leading to fears of an imminent full-scale war.

The violence since early October has killed at least 455 people in Lebanon, mostly fighters but including 88 civilians, according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, at least 14 soldiers and 11 civilians have been killed, according to the army.

INNUMBERS

• 4,900 Attacks launched by Israel against southern Lebanon since Oct. 7.

• 1,100 Attacks by Hezbollah against Israel and Israeli occupied territories in Lebanon. Source: ACLED

Israel has carried out nearly 4,900 attacks in southern Lebanon since Oct. 7, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) Project.

ACLED says Hezbollah has launched around 1,100 attacks on Israel as well as territories it has occupied in Lebanon over the same period.

Israeli strikes have made the entire border area in southern Lebanon a no-go zone, leading to the displacement of some 90,000 people, according to the UN migration agency, IOM. The same is true in northern Israel, where Hezbollah attacks have displaced 80,000 residents.




Israelis evacuated from northern areas near the Lebanese border due to ongoing cross-border tensions, rally near the northern Amiad Kibbutz, demanding to return home on May 23, 2024. (AFP)

Since the tit-for-tat attacks began, Lebanese officials and communities living along the border have been braced for a potential escalation into a conflict of a scale not seen since the 2006 war.

In recent months, influential Israeli officials have been calling on the government to mount a new military operation to push Hezbollah away from Israel’s northern border.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said on Tuesday that Israel is close to making a decision regarding Hezbollah’s daily attacks, according to the Times of Israel newspaper.




Israel's military Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi (C) walks among army officers during a situational assessment on the Lebanese border area on February 1, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israeli and Hezbollah forces. (Israeli Army handout via AFP) 

“We are approaching the point where a decision will have to be made, and the IDF is prepared and very ready for this decision,” Halevi said during an assessment with military officials and Fire Commissioner Eyal Caspi, at an army base in Kiryat Shmona.

“We have been attacking for eight months, and Hezbollah is paying a very, very high price. It has increased its strengths in recent days and we are prepared after a very good process of training … to move to an attack in the north.”

Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett tore into Benjamin Netanyahu’s government this week, claiming the north of Israel had been abandoned. “We must save the north,” he said in a statement. “The Galilee is going up in flames. The fire is spreading.




Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett, shown in this photo taken on January 15, 2024, claims that the north of Israel had been abandoned by the Netanyahu government. (AFP/File photo)

“Beautiful and flourishing places have turned into heaps of rubble. Some residents who were evacuated are already planning their lives elsewhere. This is a grave strategic event and can in no way be normalized.”

Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hezbollah, has said the militia’s campaign will continue as long as the war rages in Gaza.

In a speech last week, he said the attacks are “pressuring Israel,” and that while the battle concerns Palestine, it also concerns “the future of Lebanon and its water and oil resources.”

Should a full-scale war break out, Nasrallah said Hezbollah has “surprises” in store for Israel. Indeed, many region watchers expect any conflict between Israel and Hezbollah to be far more devastating and costly for both sides than the war in Gaza.




Hassan Nasrallah (2nd from R), leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah militia, met with Iranian officials as Hezbollah supporters braced for a spike, right, in Israeli reprisals. (AFP)

Nasrallah’s comments followed statements by Yaov Gallant, Israel’s defense minister, who warned Lebanon would “pay the price” for Hezbollah’s actions, saying “if you will continue, we will accelerate.”

Although both sides have raised the rhetorical ante, Israeli analyst Ori Goldberg believes an all-out war with Hezbollah would be a disastrous overreach for Israel.

“Israel cannot afford a two-front war,” he told Arab News. “That is not sustainable. Hezbollah will be able to reach the Israeli heartland with its rockets. Israel is already imploding. More than 100,000 Israelis seem to have been permanently displaced.”

Nevertheless, if Prime Minister Netanyahu were to present a new war in Lebanon as the only viable option to allow displaced Israelis to return home, then “there is a good possibility that he can rally enough support,” said Goldberg.

“In a way, a war in Lebanon is something Israel’s professional warmongers have been pitching for years. Also, Israel is really hard up for solutions that would return people to the north. So popular support is there to be tapped.”




Map showing the border between Lebanon and Israel, where tit-for-tat bombardment between Israeli and Hezbollah forces had displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides. (AFP)

Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser to US President Joe Biden for energy and investment, who brokered the maritime boundary agreement between Lebanon and Israel in late 2022, recently proposed a road map to peace between Israel and Hezbollah.

“I’m not expecting peace, everlasting peace, between Hezbollah and Israel,” Hochstein said in an interview with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in March.

“But if we can reach a set of understandings and ... take away some of the impetus for conflict and establish for the first time ever, a recognized border between the two, I think that will go a long way.”

Hezbollah, however, has conditioned any agreement on a ceasefire in Gaza, arguing any deal would require the consent of both parties.

Michael Young, author and senior editor at Carnegie Middle East, believes that despite its continued provocations, Hezbollah does not want a full-scale war with Israel.

“Everything they’ve shown, up till now, proves that they are avoiding one at all costs,” Young told Arab News. “Sure, they have escalated in response to Israeli escalations, but clearly they are not looking for one.

“If there is war, I don’t think there will be support from large segments of Lebanese society, and Hezbollah knows this. Even though there is anger with Israel, they will not support one.

“There is criticism from outside the Shiite community. The reason why Hezbollah is careful not to engage in a full-scale war is that it knows support from society will dissolve very quickly.”

Hezbollah on Tuesday said one of its members who lived in the Naqoura area was killed in an Israeli strike, and that its fighters launched “a slew of explosive-laden drones” at Israeli positions in the annexed Golan Heights in retaliation for the attack on the coastal town.




People pray during the funeral of the two brothers, Ali and Mohammed Qassem, who were killed by an Israeli strike in the Lebanese village of Houla near the border with Israel on June 2, 2024. (REUTERS)

It also claimed other attacks on Israeli troops and positions.

The Israeli army said in a statement that “fighter jets struck a Hezbollah terrorist” in Naqoura as well as hitting other sites.

Over the weekend, Hezbollah said its fighters had mounted a rocket attack against an Israeli army base in the border town of Kiryat Shmona, “scoring direct hits, igniting a fire and destroying parts of it,” according to militia statements.

The Israeli army confirmed the attack had taken place, with images of damaged infrastructure published by local media.

On Sunday night, the social media account of Green Southerners, a Lebanese civil society group dedicated to preserving national heritage, released videos purportedly showing massive fires around the border village of Al-Adisa.

The group claimed the fires were caused by Israel’s use of the incendiary weapon white phosphorus, and accused Israel of committing an act of “ecocide,” as the fires destroyed trees, farmland and animal habitats.




An Israeli army soldier artillery shells at a position near the border with Lebanon in the upper Galilee region of northern Israel . Lebanon has accused Israel of using controversial white phosphorus rounds, in attacks authorities say have harmed civilians and the environment. (AFP)

Twenty four hours later, massive fires were ignited by suspected Hezbollah attacks on the Israeli side of the border around Kiryat Shmona. Civilians were ordered to evacuate as firefighters battled the flames.

Israeli officials said more than 2,500 acres of land were affected by the fires, claiming it could take years for the land to recover.

On Monday, Hezbollah said it had fired Katyusha rockets toward Israeli bases in the occupied Golan Heights. For the first time since the outbreak of violence in October, the militia said it had launched a squadron of drones.

The Israeli military confirmed the attacks, stating it had intercepted one drone carrying explosives while two others fell in northern Israel.

For as long as Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza rages and Hezbollah continues to pose a threat to the towns and villages of northern Israel, the potential for escalation remains high




A Lebanese firefighter from the Islamic Sanitary Committee douses a fire that swept over fields hit by Israeli shelling in southern Lebanon near the border with Israel on June 3, 2024. (AFP) 

The consequences, however, would be severe for all parties.

“I think Hezbollah has demonstrated it is committed to tit for tat,” said Israeli analyst Goldberg. “If Israel invades — and invade it must, if it wants a war — I think Hezbollah will likely retaliate in kind.”

And although Hezbollah has the means to cause significant damage to Israeli cities with its arsenal of Iranian-supplied weapons, it is crisis-wracked Lebanon that has the most to lose in the event of a full-scale war.

Indeed, the 2019 financial crisis and the failure to establish a new government has plunged much of the population into poverty, left public services and infrastructure in tatters, and even risked reopening old sectarian wounds.

“Should there be a war, it will be very difficult, if not impossible, to put Lebanon back together as it was or even as it is today,” said Young of Carnegie Middle East.

“Already the sectarian social contract is falling apart. How do you do this after a very destructive war?”


 


Turkiye arrests leader of far-right party on charges of inciting violence through social media

Turkiye arrests leader of far-right party on charges of inciting violence through social media
Updated 22 January 2025
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Turkiye arrests leader of far-right party on charges of inciting violence through social media

Turkiye arrests leader of far-right party on charges of inciting violence through social media
  • Ozdag, a 63-year-old former academic, is an outspoken critic of Turkiye’s refugee policies and has called for the repatriation of millions of Syrian refugees

ANKARA, Turkiye: Turkish authorities on Tuesday arrested the leader of a far-right opposition party on charges of inciting violence through a series of anti-refugee posts on social media, his party said.
Umit Ozdag, the leader of Turkiye’s anti-immigrant Victory Party, was detained by police on Monday as part of an investigation into allegations that he insulted President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a speech he delivered a day earlier.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s office, however, released Ozdag from custody on charges of insulting the president but subsequently ordered his arrest on charges of “inciting hatred and hostility among the public,” the party said.
Prosecutors presented 11 of the politician’s posts on the social platform X as evidence against him, the party said. The prosecutor’s office also held Ozdag responsible for anti-Syrian refugee rioting that erupted in the central Turkish province of Kayseri last year, during which hundreds of homes and businesses were attacked.
Ekrem Imamoglu, the popular mayor of Istanbul who is seen as a possible candidate to challenge Erdogan in the next elections, criticized Ozdag’s arrest, saying on X that “Everyone knows that this is political meddling in the judiciary.”
Imamoglu, who is a member of Turkiye’s main opposition party, was convicted of insulting members of Turkiye’s electoral board in 2022 and faces a two-year ban from politics if his conviction is upheld by a court of appeals.
Ozdag, a 63-year-old former academic, is an outspoken critic of Turkiye’s refugee policies and has called for the repatriation of millions of Syrian refugees.
The politician was being taken to Silivri prison on the outskirts of Istanbul, according to his party.
Mehmet Ali Sehirlioglu, the party’s spokesman, would temporarily assume leadership of the Victory Party.

 


Yemen Red Sea port capacity down sharply after hostilities, UN says

Julien Harneis, UN resident and humanitarian coordinator in Yemen. (X @julienmh)
Julien Harneis, UN resident and humanitarian coordinator in Yemen. (X @julienmh)
Updated 22 January 2025
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Yemen Red Sea port capacity down sharply after hostilities, UN says

Julien Harneis, UN resident and humanitarian coordinator in Yemen. (X @julienmh)
  • Houthis have launched attacks on international shipping near Yemen since November 2023 in solidarity with Palestinians in the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip

GENEVA: Operations at a Red Sea port in Yemen used for aid imports have fallen to about a quarter of its capacity, a UN official said on Tuesday, adding it was not certain that a Gaza ceasefire would end attacks between the Iran-backed Houthis and Israel.
Houthis have launched attacks on international shipping near Yemen since November 2023 in solidarity with Palestinians in the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. This has prompted Israel to strike port and energy facilities, including the Red Sea port of Hodeidah.
“(The) impact of airstrikes on Hodeidah Harbor, particularly in the last weeks, is very important,” Julien Harneis, UN resident and humanitarian coordinator in Yemen told a UN meeting in Geneva on Tuesday via videolink.
Four of the port’s five tugboats needed to escort the large ships bringing imports had sunk, while the fifth was damaged, he said, without attributing blame.
“The civilian crews who man them are obviously very hesitant. The capacity of the harbor is down to about a quarter,” he added, saying the port was used to transit a significant portion of imported aid.
Since a Gaza ceasefire agreement last week, Yemen’s Houthis have said they will limit their attacks on commercial vessels to Israel-linked ships, provided the Gaza ceasefire is fully implemented.
“We are hopeful that sanity will prevail and people will be focused on solutions and peace, but we are nonetheless prepared as a humanitarian community for various degradations,” said Harneis, adding that the agency had contingency plans.
The Iran-aligned Houthis have controlled most of Yemen, including the capital Sanaa, since seizing power during 2014 and early 2015.

 


Suspected settlers attacked Palestinian villages hours before Trump rescinded Biden sanctions

Suspected settlers attacked Palestinian villages hours before Trump rescinded Biden sanctions
Updated 22 January 2025
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Suspected settlers attacked Palestinian villages hours before Trump rescinded Biden sanctions

Suspected settlers attacked Palestinian villages hours before Trump rescinded Biden sanctions
  • Even before taking office, Trump appears to have pressed Netanyahu to accept a Gaza ceasefire agreement with Hamas that strongly resembled one the Biden administration had been pushing for months
  • On Tuesday, the charred shells of cars lay on the side of the road in Jinsafut and residents surveyed the damage to a burned storage space

JINSAFUT, West Bank: Shortly after suspected Jewish settlers stormed Palestinian villages in the occupied West Bank late Monday, setting cars and property ablaze, US President Donald Trump canceled sanctions against Israelis accused of violence in the territory.
The reversal of the Biden administration’s sanctions, which were meant to punish radical settlers, could set the tone for a presidency that is expected to be more tolerant of Israel’s expansion of settlements and of violence toward Palestinians. In Trump’s previous term he lavished support on Israel, and he has once again surrounded himself with aides who back the settlers.
Settler leaders rushed to praise Trump’s decision on the sanctions, which were first imposed nearly a year ago as violence surged during the war in Gaza. The sanctions were later expanded to include other Israelis seen as violent or radical.
Finance Minister and settler firebrand Bezalel Smotrich called it a just decision, saying the sanctions were a “severe and blatant foreign intervention.” In a post on social media platform X, he went on to praise Trump’s “unwavering and uncompromising support for the state of Israel.”
The West Bank’s 3 million Palestinians already live under seemingly open-ended Israeli military rule, with the Palestinian Authority administering cities and towns. Smotrich and other hard-line settler leaders want Israel to annex the West Bank and rebuild settlements in Gaza, territories that Israel seized during the 1967 Mideast war.
Palestinians want both territories for a future state and have long viewed the settlements as a major obstacle to peace, while the international community overwhelmingly considers them illegal. There are more than 500,000 settlers in the West Bank who have Israeli citizenship.
Late Monday, dozens of masked men who are widely believed to be settlers marauded through at least two Palestinian villages and attacked homes and businesses, according to officials in Jinsafut and Al-Funduq, which are roughly 30 miles (50 kilometers) north of Jerusalem.
The Palestinian Red Crescent said it treated 12 people who were beaten by the men. It gave no details on their condition. Israel’s military said the men hurled rocks at soldiers who had arrived to disperse them, and that it had launched an investigation.
Violence has surged in the West Bank during the Gaza war, so it was not clear if the attack had any link to the inauguration. On Tuesday, meanwhile, Israel launched a deadly raid on the Jenin refugee camp.
Jalal Bashir, the head of Jinsafut’s village council, said that the men attacked three houses, a nursery and a carpentry shop located on the village’s main road. Louay Tayem, head of the local council in Al-Funduq, said dozens of men had fired shots, thrown stones, burned cars, and attacked homes and shops.
“The settlers were masked and had incendiary materials,” said Bashir. “Their numbers were large and unprecedented.”
On Tuesday, the charred shells of cars lay on the side of the road in Jinsafut and residents surveyed the damage to a burned storage space.
Growing impunity, even after Biden’s sanctions
Biden’s executive order against the settlers marked a rare break with America’s closest Middle East ally, and signaled his frustration with what critics say is Israel’s leniency in dealing with violent settlers.
Rights groups say that impunity has deepened since Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz exempted settlers from what is known as administrative detention — Israel’s practice of detaining individuals on security grounds without charge or trial — which is routinely used against Palestinians.
Katz, who freed all Israelis held in administrative detention just last week, said those behind Monday’s attack should be held accountable in Israel’s more transparent criminal justice system.
Palestinian residents, meanwhile, are tried in Israeli military courts.
Biden’s sanctions were aimed at settlers who were involved in acts of violence, as well as threats against and attempts to destroy or seize Palestinian property. They later were broadened to include other groups, including Tzav 9, an activist organization that was accused of disrupting the flow of aid into Gaza by trying to block trucks heading into the territory.
Reut Ben-Chaim, a mother of eight who founded the group and was then slapped with sanctions that crippled her wellness company and prohibited her access to credit cards or banking apps, welcomed Trump’s step.
“We have heard in the last few days that the Trump administration is going to be the most pro-Israel there has been,” she told The Associated Press. “These actions, such as the removal of the sanctions … these are actions that already mark the way forward.”
Support for Israel could clash with wider ambitions
Trump has long boasted of his support for Israel, but he has also pledged to end wars in the Middle East that could require exerting some pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Even before taking office, Trump appears to have pressed Netanyahu to accept a Gaza ceasefire agreement with Hamas that strongly resembled one the Biden administration had been pushing for months.

During his first term, Trump moved the American embassy to Jerusalem, recognized Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights — which it captured from Syria in the 1967 war — and presented a Mideast peace plan that was seen as overwhelmingly favorable to Israel.
He also let settlement construction in the West Bank surge unchecked.
But he seemed at the time to have tapped the brakes on Netanyahu’s plans to annex large parts of the West Bank, something Israel’s far-right settlers have demanded for years. Netanyahu said he temporarily shelved the idea as part of the agreement with the UAE.
 

 


Four wounded in Tel Aviv stabbing attack, attacker killed

Members of Israeli security forces stand guard at the site of a stabbing attack in Tel Aviv on January 21, 2025. (AFP)
Members of Israeli security forces stand guard at the site of a stabbing attack in Tel Aviv on January 21, 2025. (AFP)
Updated 22 January 2025
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Four wounded in Tel Aviv stabbing attack, attacker killed

Members of Israeli security forces stand guard at the site of a stabbing attack in Tel Aviv on January 21, 2025. (AFP)
  • This was the second stabbing attack in Tel Aviv in four days, after another assailant seriously wounded a person on Saturday before being shot by an armed civilian

TEL AVIV: Four people were wounded in a stabbing attack on Tuesday in Tel Aviv while the attacker was killed, Israeli emergency service Magen David Adom said.
The police said an initial investigation “revealed that a terrorist armed with a knife stabbed three civilians on Nahalat Binyamin Street and one civilian on Gruzenberg Street.”
Ichilov hospital in Tel Aviv said it had received three stabbing victims, including one in “a serious condition with a knife wound to the neck” who was taken into surgery.
The Nahalat Binyamin street and surrounding neighborhood of Tel Aviv are popular for their restaurants and nightlife.
The area was cordoned off by the police, while an AFP journalist saw the dead body of a man on the street.
This was the second stabbing attack in Tel Aviv in four days, after another assailant seriously wounded a person on Saturday before being shot by an armed civilian.
 

 


UK PM tells Netanyahu peace process ‘should lead’ to Palestinian state

UK PM tells Netanyahu peace process ‘should lead’ to Palestinian state
Updated 21 January 2025
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UK PM tells Netanyahu peace process ‘should lead’ to Palestinian state

UK PM tells Netanyahu peace process ‘should lead’ to Palestinian state
  • Downing Street: The PM said ‘that the UK stands ready to do everything it can to support a political process, which should also lead to a viable and sovereign Palestinian state’
  • Downing Street: The PM also ‘reiterated that it was vital to ensure humanitarian aid can now flow uninterrupted into Gaza, to support the Palestinians who desperately need it’

LONDON: UK premier Keir Starmer told Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday that any peace process in the Middle East should pave the way for a Palestinian state, Downing Street said.
The two leaders held a call that focused on the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, a UK government spokesperson said.
During the conversation, “both agreed that we must work toward a permanent and peaceful solution that guarantees Israel’s security and stability,” the British readout of the call added.
“The prime minister added that the UK stands ready to do everything it can to support a political process, which should also lead to a viable and sovereign Palestinian state.”
Starmer also “reiterated that it was vital to ensure humanitarian aid can now flow uninterrupted into Gaza, to support the Palestinians who desperately need it,” the statement added.
Starmer “offered his personal thanks for the work done by the Israeli government to secure the release of the hostages, including British hostage Emily Damari,” the statement added.
“To see the pictures of Emily finally back in her family’s arms was a wonderful moment but a reminder of the human cost of the conflict,” Starmer added, according to the statement.
A truce agreement between Israel and Hamas to end 15 months of war in Gaza came into effect on Sunday.
The first part of the three-phase deal should last six weeks and see 33 hostages returned from Gaza in exchange for around 1,900 Palestinian prisoners.