https://arab.news/pqrzg
Can a country build up its defense industrial capability to meet half its own demand? Can it do so in just a few years? These are among the ambitious goals of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, the modernization plan conceived of and championed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Together they constitute just one part of a comprehensive and impressive plan, but as tensions in the Middle East continue to intensify, they are especially important.
So, is onshoring and ramping up defense production at such a breakneck pace possible? I am betting that it is — or at least that the Saudis will change the complexion of Middle East trade and defense dramatically in the near future.
It would be hard to find any historic parallel to the goals, timing and budget set by the Kingdom. While the questions of whether and how much to onshore defense production faces many other nations, each with its own national security considerations, history and supply chains to analyze, I think that, in Saudi Arabia’s case, a massive defense industrial effort has a significant chance of success for two significant reasons: need and all-out dedication.
First, the need. Saudi Arabia’s ability to produce military equipment for land, sea, air and cyberwarfare is intimately tied up with its critical importance to regional stability. While the Kingdom has already started to unleash its potential as a hub of tourism, technology, entertainment and urban growth, an important factor for the continued growth and success of Vision 2030 is its security. Strategic deterrence is an important part of the preconditions for the major economic and cultural goals in Vision 2030. If the Kingdom has to deal with instability and external threats as they arise — a situation invited by unreliable defense supply chains — cultivating a thriving economy and culture becomes more challenging.
The Saudis recognize that strategic deterrence is an essential component of their overall success as a rapidly modernizing nation
Jason D. Greenblatt
Moreover, while Saudi Arabia — one of the world’s top military spenders — has been able to purchase materiel from trade partners in the past, its ability to mobilize quickly, without concerns over reliability at any point in the supply chain, is crucial in a dangerous neighborhood. Aside from mundane supply chain issues that have negatively affected many countries and hampered their military preparedness over the years, there is the additional concern of how reliable allies (and non-allies) will remain in supplying other countries with critical materiel.
As recent whiplash in American Middle East policy has revealed, even staunch allies sometimes go wobbly due to domestic considerations that often change with the politics of the day. No country wants to rely on fickle external affairs if they can afford not to. In fact, the Kingdom’s prestige in the eyes of the world will only grow if it drives the supply chain as a sophisticated producer of the world’s most important technologies, rather than participating in the marketplace as one of many buyers.
In all, the Saudis recognize that strategic deterrence is an essential component of their overall success as a rapidly modernizing nation and that, the more home-grown strategic deterrence they can develop, the better.
That brings us to the second reason: Saudi Arabia is openly and thoroughly dedicated to responding to its sometimes-hostile environs, as demonstrated by the primacy it is placing on this effort. In Vision 2030, the crown prince championed the benefits of stimulating an entire economic sector by localizing the defense industry. Since then, Saudi Arabian Military Industries has been entrusted with the mandate of bringing this mission into reality. It has drawn significant foreign investment and has begun strategically partnering with leading American defense titans. It has also begun developing strategic technologies, such as software-defined multiband radio systems, helicopter engines and infrastructure for naval defense systems.
The Saudis are clearly focused on inaugurating a new era of primacy on the world stage. One recurring theme in all discussions of Vision 2030 is that the Kingdom takes seriously both the honor and the responsibility that comes with it being the center of both the Islamic and Arab worlds. Vision 2030 also aims to reshape norms around physical, economic and cultural health in ways that reflect Saudi readiness to compete among the top-tier countries in the world.
Vision 2030 is not just a checklist, but also an expression of dedication to encourage Saudis to think big
Jason D. Greenblatt
One prominent Vision 2030 goal is to double household spending on cultural and entertainment activities; another is to triple the rate of Saudis who exercise once a week. There are myriad benchmarks that are part and parcel of the effort to reorient the Kingdom, all of which are designed to work hand in hand to bring the country to center stage in relation to the world economy, tourism, technology, investment, foreign policy, defense production and major infrastructure projects, to name just some of the Kingdom’s goals. The goals set by Vision 2030 reflect a larger dedication to reimagining Saudi Arabia in a way that remains true to its ways of life in terms of religion, culture and tradition, all while incorporating new behaviors and norms that will help it sustainably compete in all areas around the globe.
I have spent a lot of time in the Kingdom since 2017, observing and researching the cultural and economic changes already in motion. Thus far, the passion I hear from Saudis, foreign-born residents and visitors suggests that, even though 2030 is just a few years away, the odds of achieving the goals of Vision 2030 are high. The idea is not to necessarily achieve every single item on the list, but to create the mindset, infrastructure and attitude of a dynamic, modern, prosperous and cohesive nation. Vision 2030 is not just a checklist, in other words, but also an expression of dedication to encourage Saudis to think big, embrace rapid growth and play a leading role in the world.
Saudi military readiness and the concept of a “Made in Saudi” mantra for the defense industry are important parts of this evolution. The Made in Saudi effort is not just for the benefit of use, to protect the Kingdom, but to enable it to help others protect themselves as well. If Vision 2030 is about playing a role on the world stage, the defense production effort shows dedication to using that role to help generate peace, stability and prosperity in the region.
While not essential to the plan, one additional possibility could take Saudi ambitions to the next level. If, down the road, Saudi Arabia and Israel achieve normalized relations, the combination of their goals and talent would further help spring the Kingdom to the status of defense production powerhouse. Imagine the possibilities if the Kingdom, Israel and other pathbreaking countries such as the UAE could work together to share best practices and production technologies, thereby changing the complexion of the region for the better. Further cooperation would represent a major step toward achieving a united front for peace in the region.
Realigning the Middle East around shared interests and the possibility of world-changing cooperation requires courage and leadership. But those virtues seem to be in high supply in the Kingdom — and that is why I would bet on Saudi Arabia achieving its ambitious defense production goals to meet the urgency of the moment.
- Jason Greenblatt was the White House Middle East envoy in the Trump administration. He is the author of the widely acclaimed book “In the Path of Abraham” and director of Arab-Israel diplomacy for the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. X: @GreenblattJD