India’s key monsoon rains arrive early, promising respite from heat

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI: Monsoon rains hit the coast of India’s southernmost state of Kerala on Thursday, two days sooner than expected, weather officials said, offering respite from a gruelling heat wave while boosting prospects for bumper harvests.
Summer rains, critical to spur economic growth in Asia’s third-largest economy, usually begin to lash Kerala around June 1 before spreading nationwide by mid-July, allowing farmers to plant crops such as rice, corn, cotton, soybeans and sugarcane.
The monsoon has covered nearly all of Kerala and most northeastern states, the state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a statement.
Conditions favored its spread to the neighboring states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and the northeastern state of Assam during the next two to three days, it added.
That spells relief from a stifling heat wave that has driven maximum temperatures above 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit) in some northern and western regions.
The monsoon, the lifeblood of the nearly $3.5-trillion economy, brings nearly 70 percent of the rain India needs to water farms and recharge reservoirs and aquifers.
In the absence of irrigation, nearly half the farmland in the world’s second-biggest producer of rice, wheat and sugar depends on the annual rains that usually run from June to September.
India is likely to receive an average amount of rain in June, although maximum temperatures are likely to stay above normal, the IMD said, with the monsoon this year expected to be 106 percent of the long-term average.
In 2023, below-average rainfall depleted reservoirs, hitting food output, prompting government curbs on exports of commodities such as rice, wheat, sugar and onions.
Resumption of exports depends on how quickly production recovers in 2024, which hinges on a plentiful monsoon. That in turn could help rein in food inflation, which is still too high for the central bank’s comfort.