Can Israeli PM Netanyahu achieve his stated war objectives with Rafah assault?

Analysis Can Israeli PM Netanyahu achieve his stated war objectives with Rafah assault?
For the Netanyahu government, however, Rafah represents a last opportunity to declare the war won and, in the process, to ensure Netanyahu has a political future. (AFP). (AP)
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Updated 13 May 2024
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Can Israeli PM Netanyahu achieve his stated war objectives with Rafah assault?

Can Israeli PM Netanyahu achieve his stated war objectives with Rafah assault?
  • Despite claim there are four brigades in Rafah, it is unclear how many operational fighters Hamas still has
  • Some Israeli analysts say Israel needs to make Hamas ideologically and politically irrelevant, not do the opposite

LONDON: This week, before-and-after imagery released by US commercial satellite company Planet Labs showed the extent of the damage inflicted in just one day by Israeli forces on the outskirts of Rafah, close to the Egyptian border.

This is not the city of Rafah itself — yet. Awaiting a resolution of the political standoff between their government and the US, which has threatened to stop supplying ammunition if Israel invades Rafah, the 98th Airborne and the 162nd Armored divisions are massing to the south of the city.

In the satellite imagery captured on Tuesday, groups of tanks can be seen in the vicinity of the Rafah crossing, which Israeli troops occupied and closed on Monday, and grouped in several other strategic locations.

While they are waiting, however, they have been laying waste to much of the surrounding infrastructure and indulging in some symbolic wanton vandalism: in a video released on Tuesday a tank rolls over a “I love Gaza” sign near the crossing.




Netanyahu has gambled his political future on two objectives tied to a continuation of the devastating and murderous assault on Gaza — the destruction of Hamas and the killing of its top commanders. (AFP)

The contrast between the satellite images taken on Monday and Tuesday is striking. In the course of one day, hundreds of homes, commercial buildings, agricultural plots and other structures on dozens of sites either side of the Salah Al-Din highway were destroyed.

“This,” said a spokesman for the Israeli government on Tuesday, “is the beginning of our mission to take out the last four Hamas brigades in Rafah.”

But although Netanyahu has gambled his political future on two objectives tied to a continuation of the devastating and murderous assault on Gaza — the destruction of Hamas and the killing of its top commanders — after seven months of all-out warfare those objectives seem increasingly unattainable.

Despite the Israeli claim that there are four brigades in Rafah, it is unclear exactly how many operational fighters Hamas still has, or exactly where they are. It is also not clear if they have chosen, as some commentators have suggested, to make a “last stand” in Rafah, or even, after seven months of war, if they have the weapons and ammunition necessary to do so.




Groups of tanks were seen in the vicinity of the Rafah crossing. (AFP)

Even less certain is the location of Hamas military leader Yahya Sinwar, from whom nothing has been heard since the invasion of Gaza began.

Sinwar, Israel’s public enemy number one, has become a ghost, so much so that on Thursday US National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby made a public plea for him to “come clean about what his intentions are.”

Writing in The Spectator this week, Middle East analyst Jonathan Spyer suggested that, “contrary to what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might wish, Sinwar, his brother Mohammed, and the Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif are almost certainly not currently besieged in a bunker in Rafah, surrounded and obliged to either agree to the Egyptian (ceasefire) proposal or be crushed beneath the treads of the 98th and the 162nd.”

In fact, added Spyer, director of research at the Middle East Forum, “it is not even certain if the Hamas leaders and their hostages are even still in the Rafah area, or ... in some other part of the strip.”

Gaza, although barely larger than the small Mediterranean island of Malta, has nevertheless proved to be a frustrating landscape for Israeli operations.




“The only way to defeat the Hamas ideology is with a better ideology, and that is to make the two-state solution real to Palestinians,” said Gershon Baskin. (AFP)

On Thursday it emerged that even before the Oct. 7 attack, Israel had tried, and failed, to assassinate both Sinwar and Al-Deif, the commander-in-chief of Hamas’ Al-Qassam Brigades.

In remarks made to a Jewish organization in the US and broadcast on Israeli television’s Channel 12, Israel’s former military chief of staff Aviv Kochavi said a perceived “change with Hamas” in 2021 had led to the decision to try to kill the two men.

“We tried, and it’s hard,” he was reported as having said.

“In a densely populated, heavily built-up area it is very hard. So, we had been working for months in order to procure the operation but we couldn’t.”

Kochavi also added his voice to the growing chorus in Israel critical of Netanyahu’s increasingly unpopular determination to continue military operations in Gaza.




Yahya Sinwar, Israel’s public enemy number one, has become a ghost. (AFP)

“I don’t think there is a way to bring back the hostages without halting for the time being the war,” he said. Furthermore, he added, “I don’t think we can achieve complete victory in months — forget it, it will take years.”

For the Netanyahu government, however, Rafah represents a stage for political theatre — a last opportunity to declare the war won and, in the process, to ensure Netanyahu has a political future.

INNUMBERS

• 120 People taken hostage by Hamas on Oct. 7 still unaccounted for.

• 252 Israelis and foreigners taken hostage in the attack, according to Israel.

• 80,000 People known to have fled Rafah since last Monday after Israeli warning.

“They're looking for a victory,” said Yossi Mekelberg, a professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the Middle East and North Africa Program at London-based policy institute Chatham House.

“They are looking for a photo op: ‘Here is his head, we’ve cut off the head of Hamas, now it’s all over’.”

Although the message from Biden “is very clear — for the United States to even suggest imposing an arms ban on Israel is a huge thing,” Netanyahu is also facing a potential internal revolt by his right-wing cabinet members, such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Givr and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who oppose any ceasefire with Hamas.




Despite the Israeli claim that there are four brigades in Rafah, it is unclear exactly how many operational fighters Hamas still has. (AFP)

Ultra-religious, “they are on a different planet,” said Mekelberg. “It’s not between them and other human beings, it's between them and God. And they are telling Netanyahu if he compromises too much with Hamas they will leave the government, and that there is no point in them staying in government if we don't enter Rafah.”

Whether they would find Sinwar there is anybody’s guess, says Gershon Baskin, a former adviser to Israeli, Palestinian and international prime ministers on the Middle East peace process.

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“I'm sure that he's not just sitting and waiting,” he said. “He has certainly booby-trapped tunnels and bunkers in the whole area between Rafah and Khan Younis, and maybe they also have access to places north of there. We don’t know.”

But if Sinwar is in Rafah, “from my experience with the man there is no way he is going to surrender. He will fight to the death. I think that he believes that he will never survive this war. He’s not afraid of death. In fact, he believes that it’s his duty to become a martyr and he will try to kill as many Israelis along the way as possible.”




For the Netanyahu government, however, Rafah represents a stage for political theatre. (Reuters)

According to Baskin, an all-out ground attack on Rafah would be “catastrophic, for any hostages and the civilian population. There’s no doubt about it. I have heard there are about 40,000 people left in the quadrant that Israel said they wanted people to move out of, and you have another 1.2 million at least in the city of Rafah and its surroundings.”

Humanitarian considerations aside, Mekelberg believes that, even if Rafah is attacked and razed to the ground, Sinwar is killed and victory declared, assaulting the city would be a strategic mistake — and would not deliver the hoped-for existential blow to Hamas.

“The main threat to Israel from Hamas comes from its ideology and politics, not from its military,” he told Arab News.




The contrast between the satellite images taken on Monday and Tuesday is striking. (AFP/Maxar Technologies)

“The military you can deal with. But the Israelis need to convince people that this ideology doesn’t serve the Gazan people or Palestinian people generally, and that there is an alternative that offers hope, and it is doing very badly at that right now.

“Israel needs to make Hamas ideologically and politically irrelevant and it is doing exactly the opposite, making them more and more relevant.”

Baskin agrees.

“The only way to defeat the Hamas ideology is with a better ideology, and that is to make the two-state solution real to Palestinians, to show them that their fight, their struggle for independence and dignity, is on the road to victory,” he told Arab News.

That, he added, “is the only way to defeat Hamas” and, with the right leadership in Israel, and an alternative to Mahmoud Abbas for the Palestinians, doing so would be “easy.”

“All Israel has to do is declare that it recognizes the state of Palestine, and then every other country in the world would do that as well,” he said.




“The main threat to Israel from Hamas comes from its ideology and politics, not from its military,” Yossi Mekelberg told Arab News. (AFP)

“Then what I would do is organize a regional conference, including all of our neighbors, hoping that the Saudis would participate, and asking the Americans and Europeans to join in but not to run the show, and negotiate borders and Jerusalem and refugees and economic relations.”

The stumbling block to all this, he says, is Netanyahu, “who since 2009 has done everything he can to avoid the possibility of a two-state solution and for whom this war is definitely about his own personal political interest.”

 


‘Bulldozer’ Katz, long-time ally of Israel’s Netanyahu

‘Bulldozer’ Katz, long-time ally of Israel’s Netanyahu
Updated 06 November 2024
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‘Bulldozer’ Katz, long-time ally of Israel’s Netanyahu

‘Bulldozer’ Katz, long-time ally of Israel’s Netanyahu
  • Katz, 69, labelled by Israeli media as a “bulldozer” for his direct and sometimes abrasive style, is considered both close and loyal to Netanyahu

JERUSALEM: Israel’s new Defense Minister Israel Katz, known for his abrasive style, is a long-time ally and loyalist of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
In a dramatic announcement late on Tuesday, Netanyahu sacked defense minister Yoav Gallant over what he said was a breakdown in trust during the Gaza war against Hamas.
“Over the past few months that trust has eroded. In light of this, I decided today to end the term of the defense minister,” Netanyahu said in a statement issued by his office.
The statement added that he had appointed Foreign Minister Israel Katz to take Gallant’s place.
Katz, 69, labelled by Israeli media as a “bulldozer” for his direct and sometimes abrasive style, is considered both close and loyal to Netanyahu.
After his appointment, Katz vowed to defeat Israel’s enemies and achieve the country’s war goals.
“We will work together to lead the defense establishment to victory over our enemies and to achieve the goals of the war: the return of all hostages as the most important moral mission, the destruction of Hamas in Gaza, the defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the containment of Iranian aggression, and the safe return of the residents of the north and south to their homes,” he said in a statement.
A member of Netanyahu’s ruling Likud party, in which he was previously president of the party’s convention, Katz has held multiple cabinet roles going back to 2003.
As foreign minister, Katz drew international attention for his pointed attacks on world leaders and international organizations that had expressed opposition to Israeli military actions, particularly in Gaza.
He spearheaded a diplomatic battle against the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, and last month Israel’s parliament banned the agency from working in Israel and occupied east Jerusalem.
On Monday, Katz instructed his ministry to formally notify the United Nations that Israel was canceling its agreements with UNRWA.
Last month Katz triggered outrage when he declared UN chief Antonio Guterres “persona non grata in Israel” and wrote in a post on X that he would ban him from entering the country.
Before serving as foreign minister, Katz’s most notable role was as minister of transport.
He spent a decade in the post from 2009-2019, but had also held the energy and finance portfolios in various Netanyahu cabinets.
Aviv Bushinsky, a political commentator and Netanyahu’s former chief of staff, told AFP that Katz was likely to be more in tune with the prime minister than his predecessor Gallant.
“I cannot recall an incident when Israel Katz was in opposition to Netanyahu with anything,” Bushinsky said.
“It is true he does not have any military experience, but he was a very good transport minister and has sat in the cabinet for many years,” he added.
“Besides, Netanyahu thinks he can run the show himself — and he has managed to run the show even though Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, two generals, quit the government.”
Born in the coastal city of Ashkelon, Katz has been a prominent player in Israeli politics since becoming a member of parliament, the Knesset, in 1998.
Today he is among the highest-ranking ministers in the Likud party.
Married with two children, Katz is a resident of Moshav Kfar Ahim in southern Israel.


Gideon Saar, Netanyahu rival turned Israel’s new wartime foreign minister

Gideon Saar, Netanyahu rival turned Israel’s new wartime foreign minister
Updated 06 November 2024
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Gideon Saar, Netanyahu rival turned Israel’s new wartime foreign minister

Gideon Saar, Netanyahu rival turned Israel’s new wartime foreign minister
  • Saar was appointed foreign minister to replace Israel Katz, who took over the defense portfolio on Tuesday after Netanyahu fired Yoav Gallant over an erosion of trust during the Gaza war

JERUSALEM: A self-styled political rebel and once a rival of the prime minister, Gideon Saar was named Israel’s new foreign minister on Tuesday.
Just five years ago Saar openly challenged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the leadership of Israel’s right-wing Likud party.
The former journalist and lawyer then left Likud in 2020, saying it had been corrupted under Netanyahu’s leadership, to form the hawkish, right-wing New Hope party.
Following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war last year, Saar joined the emergency war cabinet, before leaving the administration.
In September, he joined Netanyahu’s government as minister without a portfolio.
“As a long-time member of the government and cabinet, Gideon Saar brings substantial experience and sound judgment in security and policy matters, making him a valuable addition to our leadership team,” Netanyahu said Tuesday in a statement issued by his office.
“The addition of Saar and his party will strengthen the coalition and stabilize the government, which is crucial at all times, particularly in times of war.”
Israel has been fighting Hamas in Gaza since the militant group’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, which resulted in the deaths of 1,206 people, most of them civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.
Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed at least 43,391 Palestinians, a majority of them civilians, according to the territory’s health ministry, figures considered reliable by the UN.
Saar was appointed foreign minister to replace Israel Katz, who took over the defense portfolio on Tuesday after Netanyahu fired Yoav Gallant over an erosion of trust during the Gaza war.
Gallant had for months clashed with Netanyahu over his approach to talks on a possible hostage release deal and on the future of Gaza.
Israeli media earlier this year quoted Gallant as privately telling a parliamentary committee that a hostage release deal “is stalling... in part because of Israel.”
Netanyahu’s office accused Gallant of adopting an “anti-Israel narrative.”
Saar entered politics in 1999 as government secretary, before being elected to the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, in 2003.
He rose through the ranks to become interior minister and education minister in previous Netanyahu governments.
In 2021 he joined the government of former prime minister Naftali Bennett as justice minister with the title of deputy prime minister.
His political star had, however, dimmed in recent years.
Though he participated in the emergency government formed in the wake of the October 7 attack, he joined the opposition in March after failing to get a seat in the war cabinet.
He is considered more right-wing than Netanyahu, but lacks his charisma.
He has spoken out in favor of the all-out annexation of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank.
His ideology is “that of the Likud” but he believes that the party has “abandoned its values under Netanyahu,” deputy Sharren Haskel, a close friend of Saar’s, told AFP.
With a father who grew up in Argentina and a mother with roots in Uzbekistan, Saar calls himself a practicing Jew while affirming that “every Israeli citizen must be able to live freely according to his conscience and way of life.”
He is married to high-profile Israeli journalist Geula Even, with whom he has two children.
A daughter from his first marriage, Alona Saar, is a popular actress.


Turkiye, Kyrgyzstan sign strategic partnership on Erdogan visit

Turkiye, Kyrgyzstan sign strategic partnership on Erdogan visit
Updated 06 November 2024
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Turkiye, Kyrgyzstan sign strategic partnership on Erdogan visit

Turkiye, Kyrgyzstan sign strategic partnership on Erdogan visit
  • Kyrgyzstan’s President Sadyr Japarov said in a statement: “We have taken an important decision to raise the level of strategic partnership between Kyrgyzstan and Turkiye to that of a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’“

BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan: Turkiye and Kyrgyzstan on Tuesday agreed to a “comprehensive strategic partnership,” boosting defense ties, during an official visit to the Central Asian state by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Ankara is strengthening its presence across the region, as it seeks to compete with the likes of Russia and China for influence.
Erdogan regularly visits Central Asia and will on Wednesday take part in a summit of the Organization of Turkic States, a Turkish-led initiative to promote its culture and ties across several former Soviet republics.
Kyrgyzstan’s President Sadyr Japarov said in a statement: “We have taken an important decision to raise the level of strategic partnership between Kyrgyzstan and Turkiye to that of a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership.’“
The two sides signed 19 agreements in areas including energy, defense and the fight against terrorism.
Japarov hailed “Kyrgyz-Turkish cooperation in the field of defense and the potential for further development.”
Amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Turkiye has stepped up military cooperation with Central Asian states, a challenge to Moscow’s historic supremacy in the region.
Turkiye was the third-biggest investor in Kyrgyzstan in the first half of 2024, behind Russia and China.
But it lags in terms of trade, accounting for 3.8 percent of Kyrgyzstan’s imports and exports, against 34.2 percent for China and 19.5 percent for Russia.
 

 


Turkiye sacks 3 pro-Kurdish mayors for ‘terror ties’

Turkiye sacks 3 pro-Kurdish mayors for ‘terror ties’
Updated 06 November 2024
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Turkiye sacks 3 pro-Kurdish mayors for ‘terror ties’

Turkiye sacks 3 pro-Kurdish mayors for ‘terror ties’

ISTANBUL: Turkiye on Monday sacked three mayors in the Kurdish-majority southeast on alleged “terrorism” charges, despite Ankara’s apparent desire to seek a rapprochement with the Kurdish community.

In a sweep, the mayors of the cities of Mardin and Batman as well as the Halfeti district in Sanliurfa province were all removed and replaced with government-appointed trustees, the Interior Ministry said.

All three belong to DEM, the main pro-Kurdish party, and were elected in March’s local elections, when opposition candidates won in numerous towns and cities, including Istanbul.

Among those removed were Ahmet Turk, Mardin’s 82-year- old mayor, along with Batman mayor Gulistan Sonuk and Mehmet Karayilan in Halfeti.

The ministry outlined a string of allegations against them, frommembershipinanarmed group to disseminating propaganda for the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party, also known as PKK.

Since 1984, the PKK has waged an insurgency against the Turkish state in which more than 40,000 people have died. It is blacklisted as a “terror” group by Turkiye and its Western allies.

Kurds make up around 20 percent of Turkiye’s overall population.

DEM swiftly denounced the moveas“amajorattackonthe Kurdish people’s right to vote and be elected.”


Red Cross launches international emergency appeal urging donors to provide resources for Lebanon

Red Cross launches international emergency appeal urging donors to provide resources for Lebanon
Updated 06 November 2024
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Red Cross launches international emergency appeal urging donors to provide resources for Lebanon

Red Cross launches international emergency appeal urging donors to provide resources for Lebanon

BEIRUT: The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies on Tuesday launched an international emergency appeal asking donors to provide resources for Lebanon during the Israel-Hezbollah war.
IFRC also called on all parties to protect paramedics in the conflict that has left thousands of people dead and wounded, many of them over the past six weeks.
Jagan Chapagain, the secretary-general of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, told The Associated Press in Beirut that “needs are just growing so fast.” He met with officials and toured shelters housing people displaced by the conflict.
The IFRC said its emergency appeal for 100 million Swiss Francs ($115.8 million) is aimed at helping Lebanon and the Lebanese Red Cross through the ongoing conflict.

Jagan Chapagain, Secretary-General of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) speaks during an interview with The Associated Press, in Beirut, Lebanon, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. (AP)

The 13-month war between Israel and Hezbollah has killed more than 3,000 people, wounded over 13,000 in Lebanon. Hundreds of thousands of the displaced are staying in shelters around the small nation that is passing through a historic economic crisis.
In northern Israel, 68 soldiers and 41 civilians have been killed since October 2023, according to the prime minister’s office. More than 60,000 people have been displaced from their homes.
The conflict dramatically escalated on Sept. 23, with intense Israeli airstrikes on south and east Lebanon as well as Beirut’s southern suburbs, leaving hundreds dead and leading to the displacement of nearly 1.2 million people.
Chapagain said people staying in community centers around the country need hygiene kits, non-food items, blankets and heaters as winter approaches. He added that even if the hostilities stop, it will take time for things to go back to normal and that is one of the reasons why the IFRC’s emergency appeal goes for two years.
“The global community needs to come together to find a political solution to the challenges this region has been facing for decades,” Chapagain said.
He said that more than 30 staff and volunteers globally have already been killed this year and dozens injured adding that many other organizations have also lost members of their staff.
“This is something unheard of many years ago,” he said about the 30 deaths, adding that among the countries where paramedics suffered most are Lebanon, the Gaza Strip and Sudan.
In Lebanon, 17 members of the Lebanese Red Cross have been wounded since the conflict began while carrying out their rescue duties in different parts of Lebanon. Three of the 17 paramedics were wounded twice, according to IFRC.
“The Red Cross and Red Crescent emblems are protected,” said Chapagain.