Why Israel’s military operation in Rafah will lead to ‘inevitable catastrophe’ in Gaza

Special Why Israel’s military operation in Rafah will lead to ‘inevitable catastrophe’ in Gaza
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant talks with soldiers during a visit to the border with the Gaza Strip near Rafah. (AFP/Israeli Army)
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Updated 08 May 2024
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Why Israel’s military operation in Rafah will lead to ‘inevitable catastrophe’ in Gaza

Why Israel’s military operation in Rafah will lead to ‘inevitable catastrophe’ in Gaza
  • Israel has seized control of the Rafah border crossing and ordered 100,000 Palestinians to “evacuate immediately”
  • Full-scale assault on Rafah would intensify humanitarian emergency throughout Gaza, aid agencies warn

LONDON: Palestinians in Gaza’s southern governorate of Rafah face a desperate situation as the Israeli military proceeds with its long-planned assault on the area, capturing the Gaza side of the border crossing with Egypt and ordering displaced families to move yet again.

The Israeli army announced on Tuesday morning that its 401st Brigade had taken “operational control” of the Rafah border crossing after advancing into the eastern part during the night as part of its mission to dislodge Hamas.

Earlier on Monday, Israel ordered some 100,000 Palestinians in eastern Rafah to “evacuate immediately” to Al-Mawasi, a coastal town near Khan Younis that humanitarian organizations said was “completely uninhabitable.”

Mercy Corps said Palestinians in eastern Rafah were confronted with two impossible choices: Face death under bombardment or attempt a perilous journey to an unlivable area with no access to essential aid.




Smoke billows after Israeli bombardment in Rafah. (AFP)

Bushra Khalidi, advocacy director for Oxfam in the Palestinian territories, says civilians fleeing Rafah have been left with nowhere to go.

She told Arab News that people in Rafah “are worried of even leaving their homes” because they fear they will not find anywhere in the middle area or in Al-Mawasi.

According to the AFP news agency, more than 74 percent of the infrastructure in Gaza has been destroyed since Oct. 7 when Israel launched its bombing campaign in retaliation for the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel.

Al-Mawasi, which Israel had dubbed a “humanitarian zone,” is “already overpopulated and filled with makeshift tents,” said Khalidi. “There is no infrastructure, there (are) no services, and no facilities to host this number of (internally displaced people).”

Moreover, this narrow coastal strip, measuring just 1 km wide and 14 km long, already hosts an estimated 250,000 displaced Gazans, according to the Palestinian Red Crescent.

Ahmed Bayram, media adviser for the Norwegian Refugee Council in the Middle East, stressed that “there is not a corner or a street in Gaza where people can go expecting safety.”




Israeli tanks enter the Gazan side of the Rafah border crossing on Tuesday, May 7, 2024. (AP/Israeli Army)

He told Arab News: “Al-Mawasi, which is one of the areas Israel has asked people to go to, is full to the very brim. There is no free spot left in that narrow stretch of land, which is not equipped for such high demand.”

According to Mercy Corps, Al-Mawasi is already a sea of makeshift tents, with little in the way of humanitarian relief, electricity, or water.

It also remains unclear whether Palestinians can flee to neighboring countries through the Rafah crossing now that it is under Israeli control, said Ruth James, Oxfam’s regional humanitarian coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa.

She told Arab News: “Many Palestinians in Gaza currently do not have the recognized right to return to their original homes. Given this context, Egypt, or any other state, should be cautious of inadvertently abetting any potential efforts by Israel, or any other party, to ethnically cleanse the Palestinian population of Gaza.”

Volker Turk, the UN human rights chief, slammed Israel’s evacuation order as “inhumane,” warning that such an action could amount to a war crime, Reuters reported.

Oxfam’s Khalidi also warned that if a Rafah-wide incursion happens, which is the worst-case scenario, it would “entail mass carnage and a complete bloodbath.”




An injured Palestinian boy awaits treatment at the Kuwaiti hospital following Israeli strikes in Rafah. (AFP)

She explained that this is due to “how small” Rafah is and “because of how congested and overpopulated it is.”

Echoing her colleague’s fears, James said: “It’s hard to imagine the scale of need caused by a Rafah invasion. Simply put, this invasion can’t happen. There must be an immediate and permanent ceasefire.”

She added: “The alternative is an avoidable, massive loss of civilian life.”

Despite repeated public objections, even US President Joe Biden’s appeals against the Rafah offensive have gone unheeded.

According to the Associated Press, Biden urgently warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a phone call on Monday against invading Rafah, stressing it would only lead to more deaths and exacerbate the despair in the embattled enclave.

The Israeli military said its operation in Rafah is designed to eliminate fighters and dismantle infrastructure used by Hamas, according to Reuters.




An aerial view of cargo trucks relocated away from the Rafah border crossing with Egypt. (Maxar Technologies)

Israel’s overnight strikes across Rafah killed at least 23 people, including five children, according to local health officials.

Prior to that, Israeli warplanes pounded homes in Rafah, killing at least 27 Palestinians, including two babies, according to Gaza’s health authority.

This is despite Hamas accepting the terms of a Qatari-Egyptian ceasefire proposal on Monday.

Humanitarian organizations concur that the impact of Israel’s operation in Rafah will extend beyond the eastern area, affecting more than 1.4 million people who have been sheltering in the southern governorate — and the entirety of Gaza’s remaining population.

“While the initial ‘evacuation orders’ and operations announced in the east of Rafah are directly impacting 100,000 people, over 1.4 million are sheltering in Rafah, half of which are children, and are at direct risk of any escalated military operations across the area,” Salim Oweis, a spokesperson for UNICEF in Gaza, told Arab News.




Displaced Palestinians flee Rafah for safer areas in southern Gaza. (AFP)

“The extended impact will be far-reaching to include all the 2.2 million residents of Gaza.”

Elaborating, Oweis added: “Rafah is the main hub of all humanitarian response, and any impact on the already struggling aid delivery and humanitarian response will hamper the efforts across Gaza.”

Rafah is the last population center in the Gaza Strip after the seven-month Israeli assault obliterated three-quarters of the besieged enclave, killing at least 34,700 Palestinians according to Gaza’s health ministry, and displacing 90 percent of the population of 2.3 million people.  

Israel’s evacuation orders in eastern Rafah, coupled with unceasing airstrikes across Gaza’s south, have instilled panic among the war-weary residents, triggering an exodus of thousands of Palestinians who have nowhere to seek refuge.

Describing the situation across the Gaza Strip as “a state of despair, chaos and confusion” as Israel carries out its assault on Rafah, NRC’s Bayram said that “by issuing its orders, Israel has again pushed over 1 million people into the unknown.”

FASTFACTS

• Israel ordered Palestinians to evacuate to Al-Mawasi — deemed ‘completely uninhabitable.’

• Closing Rafah crossing would cut Gaza’s only viable humanitarian lifeline, warn aid chiefs.

• Fears that Rafah-wide incursion would ‘entail mass carnage and a complete bloodbath.’

He added: “Let’s not forget, while the orders cover an area with 100,000 people east of Rafah, the rest of the population in central and western areas will think they are next to be forcibly transferred, and so they will try to get out while they can.”

Tahani Mustafa, a senior Palestine analyst at the International Crisis Group, foresees a “horrific” humanitarian situation if the Rafah hostilities do not stop.

“All movement of people and goods has been closed off, at a time where famine is already in the north and was very much on the verge in the south,” she told Arab News.

“There’s been no contingency plan in place, and all foreign aid delegations have been evacuated. If this goes ahead as Israel states, it will be a massacre.”




Gallant promised to “deepen” the Rafah operation if hostage deal talks failed. (AFP)

As Israel has blocked aid through the Rafah border crossing, aid groups are concerned about the impact on much-needed humanitarian assistance across the Gaza Strip. This concern is exacerbated by the suspension of aid deliveries to Gaza through the Kerem Shalom crossing following a nearby Hamas rocket attack.

Oxfam’s James cautioned that “even one day of closure (of crossing points) means that additional lives are likely to be lost to hunger and illness.”

She called on Israel to “adhere to its obligations under international humanitarian law to ensure civilian populations are provided with the most essential aid in sufficient quantities.”

Khalidi pointed out that aid organizations “are already facing huge obstructions” in delivering aid across Gaza.

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“Often aid is not making it even past Khan Younis,” she said. “And hence the descent to hell, into starvation, that we have seen over the last course of months in the north, but also across the strip.”

Stressing the need to open “all crossings” to meet the immense and deep humanitarian needs in Gaza, Khalidi said: “We’re hearing that maybe other crossings will open, but the problem is that we already had two crossings open, and that was not enough.”




Displaced Palestinians arrive in Khan Yunis after Israel issued an evacuation order for parts of Rafah. (AFP)

The World Food Programme warned on Saturday that northern Gaza is experiencing a “full-blown famine,” which is “moving its way south.”

Bayram of the NRC also warned that “the entire aid system is at the point of collapse.”

He said: “Closing down the Rafah crossing means cutting off the only viable lifeline currently available for aid workers,” highlighting that the NRC relies on the Rafah crossing to bring in essential aid.

“Fuel is running low already and the existing stocks will not be able to sustain increasing demand,” he added, stressing that “Israel must reverse its plans so we can avoid an inevitable catastrophe.”

UNICEF’s Oweis emphasized that “any interruption to the already limited aid access will have a devastating impact on the humanitarian situation as a whole.”

He added: “With no fuel coming in, all the basic services will be in jeopardy of a total halt, including aid delivery and what’s left of healthcare.

“Not having food entering the strip means that more children will fall into malnutrition and disease, and will be put at heightened risk of death.”




A woman mourns a child killed by Israeli strikes on Rafah. (AFP)

Gaza’s health authority reported on April 25 that since February, at least 28 children, most of them no older than 12 months, had died of malnutrition and dehydration.

Oweis stressed that “the only hope for a way out of a worsening humanitarian catastrophe is simple, and it’s an immediate and long-lasting humanitarian ceasefire.”

He added: “Meanwhile, safe and consistent access for humanitarian organizations and personnel to reach children and their families with lifesaving aid, wherever they are in the Gaza Strip, is crucial.”


Houthis threaten to ‘cut off heads’ of Yemenis who celebrate Sept. 26 revolution

Houthis threaten to ‘cut off heads’ of Yemenis who celebrate Sept. 26 revolution
Updated 5 sec ago
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Houthis threaten to ‘cut off heads’ of Yemenis who celebrate Sept. 26 revolution

Houthis threaten to ‘cut off heads’ of Yemenis who celebrate Sept. 26 revolution
  • Militant group deploys forces across northern Yemen to crack down on gatherings, and abducts more than 200 people over online anniversary celebrations
  • The 1962 revolution overthrew the Zaidi Imamate, which ruled northern Yemen for centuries and was ideologically similar to the Houthis

AL-MUKALLA: The Houthis vowed to violently suppress any public celebrations this week of the 62nd anniversary of the Sept. 26 revolution in Yemen.

The militant group has deployed armored vehicles and forces across northern Yemen to crack down on any gatherings that take place on Thursday, and abducted more than 200 people who celebrated it online.

The revolution, which began on Sept. 26, 1962, resulted in the overthrow of the Zaidi Imamate rulers who had controlled northern Yemen for centuries, paving the way for the establishment of the Yemen Arab Republic.

The Houthis share a similar ideology with the Zaidi Imamate, including a desire to limit rule over the country to Hashemites. The group fears people will be motivated by the anniversary to take to the streets in large numbers and demand an end to repressive Houthi rule.

Nasruddin Amer, a Houthi media official, threatened to “cut off the heads” of those who gather on Thursday to commemorate the 1962 revolution. He accused them of being “stooges for the Zionists” and seeking to undermine security and stability in areas under Houthi control. Houthi authorities will allow people to celebrate the anniversary under supervision, in designated locations, he added.

“We do not have mercy or pity for enemies … If anyone tries to twist our arm, we will remove his head,” Amer said. “This is our nature and methodology. We are unconcerned about the entire world or public opinion.”

Abdulkader Al-Murtada, the head of the Houthi prisoner-exchange committee, issues similar threats and accused people who would celebrate the revolution of “serving the US agenda” in an attempt to force the Houthis to halt their attacks on international shipping, which the group claims to be carrying out in support of the Palestinian people.

“We will deal with any anarchists or charlatans, as well as anyone who attempts to cause trouble, in the same way that we deal with the enemy, and everyone is aware of how we do so,” Al-Murtada said.

Local media and residents of Sanaa, Hodeidah and other Houthi-controlled areas confirmed on Wednesday that the group had deployed armed vehicles and military forces as part of an intensive crackdown on those who celebrate the revolution or incite others to do so online.

The Mayyun Organization for Human Rights and Development said that in the past few days the Houthis abducted 270 Yemenis, including teachers, activists, journalists and members of the former ruling party, the General People’s Congress, in Sanaa and other areas for posting online messages that praised the Sept. 26 revolution and urged the public to commemorate it.

“We denounce these intimidation campaigns against civilians, particularly women, which coincide with security crackdowns and public threats of arrest aimed at deterring people from participating in planned public celebrations and raising the national flag,” the organization said.

Activists reported that in the past 24 hours the Houthis abducted people in Sanaa and other areas for flying the Yemeni flag, as well as a person in Sanaa who appeared in a video dancing to nationalist songs commemorating the revolution.

The Yemeni Journalists Syndicate also demanded the immediate release of four Yemeni journalists abducted over the past six days as part of the Houthi crackdown on Sept. 26 anniversary celebrations.

“The syndicate reiterates its call to all organizations concerned with freedom of opinion and expression to show solidarity with the abducted journalists and press for their release,” it said.

Hundreds of people marched through the streets of the government-controlled southern city of Taiz on Tuesday night to commemorate the 1962 revolution, carrying the Yemeni flag and chanting nationalist slogans. Thousands of people in Marib and other cities were expected to hold similar rallies on Wednesday and Thursday.

Meanwhile, the US Central Command said on Wednesday that its forces destroyed a Houthi drone over the Red Sea before it reached a vessel it was targeting in a critical shipping lane.

It was the latest US military response against the Houthis intended to weaken them and pressure them into halting their attacks on ships in international waters off the coast of Yemen.


US announces $424 mn in new aid for Sudanese at UN meeting

US announces $424 mn in new aid for Sudanese at UN meeting
Updated 22 min 1 sec ago
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US announces $424 mn in new aid for Sudanese at UN meeting

US announces $424 mn in new aid for Sudanese at UN meeting
  • The US ambassador to the United Nations made a new appeal to let assistance into El-Fasher
  • “We must compel the warring parties to accept humanitarian pauses,” said Linda Thomas-Greenfield

UNITED NATIONS: The United States on Wednesday announced $424 million in new aid for displaced and hungry Sudanese at a high-level meeting on the country’s brutal war at the United Nations.
The US mission to the UN said the assistance includes $175 million with which the United States will buy surplus food from its own farmers to feed people in and around Sudan, where a UN-backed assessment has warned of wide-scale famine.
Addressing the event, the US ambassador to the United Nations made a new appeal to let assistance into El-Fasher, which has been besieged by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) as the paramilitary force seeks a complete takeover of the western Darfur region.
“We must compel the warring parties to accept humanitarian pauses in El-Fasher, Khartoum and other highly vulnerable areas, eliminate barriers to humanitarian access along all routes, and put down their weapons and come to the negotiating table,” said Linda Thomas-Greenfield.
Sudan plunged into a devastating war last year as the army battled the RSF.
The World Health Organization said this month at least 20,000 people have been killed. But some estimates are far higher, with the US envoy on Sudan, Tom Perriello, saying that up to 150,000 people may have died.


Iraq hangs 21 mostly on ‘terror’ charges: security sources

Iraq hangs 21 mostly on ‘terror’ charges: security sources
Updated 36 min 38 sec ago
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Iraq hangs 21 mostly on ‘terror’ charges: security sources

Iraq hangs 21 mostly on ‘terror’ charges: security sources
  • They were executed in Nassiriya prison, and the bodies were handed over to forensics

BAGHDAD: Iraqi authorities have hanged at least 21 people, including a woman, most of them convicted over “terrorism” charges, three security sources told AFP on Wednesday.
“Twenty-one people were executed in terrorism cases,” an Iraqi security official told AFP, while other sources confirmed the convicts, including one woman, were executed in Nassiriya prison and the bodies were handed over to forensics.


UN Security Council falls short of meeting aspirations, says Arab League chief

UN Security Council falls short of meeting aspirations, says Arab League chief
Updated 45 min 55 sec ago
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UN Security Council falls short of meeting aspirations, says Arab League chief

UN Security Council falls short of meeting aspirations, says Arab League chief
  • Ahmed Aboul Gheit: It has become universally acknowledged that the Security Council, in its current form, no longer mirrors the realities of today’s world
  • Aboul Gheit: A glaring example of this is the months-long Israeli aggression against Gaza, marked by relentless killing, destruction, starvation and displacement

CAIRO: The current structure of the UN Security Council no longer reflects the realities of the modern world, Arab League chief Ahmed Aboul Gheit told the Summit of the Future in New York City on Tuesday.

Speaking on the second day of the event, he said the council as it stood did not effectively fulfill its mandate in addressing contemporary conflicts.

“It has become universally acknowledged that the Security Council, in its current form, no longer mirrors the realities of today’s world. It has fallen short in serving the goals of multilateralism effectively and in addressing the conflicts that ravage our planet,” said Aboul Gheit.

“A glaring example of this is the months-long Israeli aggression against Gaza, marked by relentless killing, destruction, starvation and displacement, without the Council being able to take decisive action. Even when a resolution was eventually passed, regrettably, the Council has not been able to enforce it to this day.”

He added: “The current structure and performance of the Security Council do not align with our shared aspirations. We anticipate genuine and transparent reform that will restore confidence in the institution and reflect the realities of the modern world.”

Aboul Gheit stressed the urgent need to strengthen collaboration with the UN to address the root causes of the current crises in the Arab region and beyond.

He said: “I must emphasize that any reforms to the Security Council and international financial institutions must ensure that the Arab world has a consistent and influential voice in global decision-making processes.”

He emphasized that these global issues converged at a critical juncture — the need to preserve multilateralism and strengthen collective action on the international stage.

Among the most pressing concerns he highlighted were rising temperatures and climate change, the widening gap between the developing world and wealthier nations — particularly in relation to climate finance — and the equitable sharing of the burdens of climate adaptation. 

Aboul Gheit also pointed to the persistent crises of extreme poverty and mounting debt, as well as the serious challenges posed by emerging technologies, especially artificial intelligence, according to spokesman Gamal Roshdy.


Cyprus leader says he ready to resume peace talks ‘today’

Cyprus leader says he ready to resume peace talks ‘today’
Updated 54 min 52 sec ago
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Cyprus leader says he ready to resume peace talks ‘today’

Cyprus leader says he ready to resume peace talks ‘today’
  • “We cannot change geography. It is an opportunity, not a curse. Turkiye and Cyprus will always remain neighbors,” Nikos Christodoulides told the UN General Assembly
  • “I adamantly believe we can carve a new path, one of peace, cooperation and collaboration“

NICOSIA: Cyprus’s president said on Wednesday he was ready to immediately resume reunification talks over the ethnically divided island, urging regional rival Turkiye to also engage in the effort.
“We cannot change geography. It is an opportunity, not a curse. Turkiye and Cyprus will always remain neighbors,” Nikos Christodoulides said in a speech to the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
“I adamantly believe we can carve a new path, one of peace, cooperation and collaboration,” he said.
Cyprus was split decades ago in a Turkish invasion after a brief Greek-inspired coup, and preceded by years of sporadic violence between Greek and Turkish Cypriots.
Reunification talks collapsed in mid-2017 and have been at a stalemate since.
A Turkish Cypriot breakaway state in northern Cyprus, backed only by Turkiye, wants a two-state deal where its sovereignty is recognized. Greek Cypriots say the only framework available is that defined by UN resolutions calling for reunification under a bizonal, bicommunal federation.
“I am committed and I am ready to sit at the negotiating table today. Not tomorrow. Today,” Christodoulides said.
Perched on the edge of the Middle East, the Cyprus problem is now massively overshadowed by the explosive situation of its neighbors.
Earlier this year the island became a bridge for delivering badly-needed humanitarian aid to Israel-beseiged Gaza in an initiative backed by the United Arab Emirates, the US and Israel. It has also offered to assist in an evacuation of civilians from the region if tensions escalate further.
Yet despite the grim outlook, Christodoulides said he would never accept the linear narrative of a region in turmoil.
“I have experienced first-hand what countries in the region can achieve when they come together behind a common vision,” he said.