Why Israel’s military operation in Rafah will lead to ‘inevitable catastrophe’ in Gaza

Special Why Israel’s military operation in Rafah will lead to ‘inevitable catastrophe’ in Gaza
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant talks with soldiers during a visit to the border with the Gaza Strip near Rafah. (AFP/Israeli Army)
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Updated 08 May 2024
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Why Israel’s military operation in Rafah will lead to ‘inevitable catastrophe’ in Gaza

Why Israel’s military operation in Rafah will lead to ‘inevitable catastrophe’ in Gaza
  • Israel has seized control of the Rafah border crossing and ordered 100,000 Palestinians to “evacuate immediately”
  • Full-scale assault on Rafah would intensify humanitarian emergency throughout Gaza, aid agencies warn

LONDON: Palestinians in Gaza’s southern governorate of Rafah face a desperate situation as the Israeli military proceeds with its long-planned assault on the area, capturing the Gaza side of the border crossing with Egypt and ordering displaced families to move yet again.

The Israeli army announced on Tuesday morning that its 401st Brigade had taken “operational control” of the Rafah border crossing after advancing into the eastern part during the night as part of its mission to dislodge Hamas.

Earlier on Monday, Israel ordered some 100,000 Palestinians in eastern Rafah to “evacuate immediately” to Al-Mawasi, a coastal town near Khan Younis that humanitarian organizations said was “completely uninhabitable.”

Mercy Corps said Palestinians in eastern Rafah were confronted with two impossible choices: Face death under bombardment or attempt a perilous journey to an unlivable area with no access to essential aid.




Smoke billows after Israeli bombardment in Rafah. (AFP)

Bushra Khalidi, advocacy director for Oxfam in the Palestinian territories, says civilians fleeing Rafah have been left with nowhere to go.

She told Arab News that people in Rafah “are worried of even leaving their homes” because they fear they will not find anywhere in the middle area or in Al-Mawasi.

According to the AFP news agency, more than 74 percent of the infrastructure in Gaza has been destroyed since Oct. 7 when Israel launched its bombing campaign in retaliation for the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel.

Al-Mawasi, which Israel had dubbed a “humanitarian zone,” is “already overpopulated and filled with makeshift tents,” said Khalidi. “There is no infrastructure, there (are) no services, and no facilities to host this number of (internally displaced people).”

Moreover, this narrow coastal strip, measuring just 1 km wide and 14 km long, already hosts an estimated 250,000 displaced Gazans, according to the Palestinian Red Crescent.

Ahmed Bayram, media adviser for the Norwegian Refugee Council in the Middle East, stressed that “there is not a corner or a street in Gaza where people can go expecting safety.”




Israeli tanks enter the Gazan side of the Rafah border crossing on Tuesday, May 7, 2024. (AP/Israeli Army)

He told Arab News: “Al-Mawasi, which is one of the areas Israel has asked people to go to, is full to the very brim. There is no free spot left in that narrow stretch of land, which is not equipped for such high demand.”

According to Mercy Corps, Al-Mawasi is already a sea of makeshift tents, with little in the way of humanitarian relief, electricity, or water.

It also remains unclear whether Palestinians can flee to neighboring countries through the Rafah crossing now that it is under Israeli control, said Ruth James, Oxfam’s regional humanitarian coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa.

She told Arab News: “Many Palestinians in Gaza currently do not have the recognized right to return to their original homes. Given this context, Egypt, or any other state, should be cautious of inadvertently abetting any potential efforts by Israel, or any other party, to ethnically cleanse the Palestinian population of Gaza.”

Volker Turk, the UN human rights chief, slammed Israel’s evacuation order as “inhumane,” warning that such an action could amount to a war crime, Reuters reported.

Oxfam’s Khalidi also warned that if a Rafah-wide incursion happens, which is the worst-case scenario, it would “entail mass carnage and a complete bloodbath.”




An injured Palestinian boy awaits treatment at the Kuwaiti hospital following Israeli strikes in Rafah. (AFP)

She explained that this is due to “how small” Rafah is and “because of how congested and overpopulated it is.”

Echoing her colleague’s fears, James said: “It’s hard to imagine the scale of need caused by a Rafah invasion. Simply put, this invasion can’t happen. There must be an immediate and permanent ceasefire.”

She added: “The alternative is an avoidable, massive loss of civilian life.”

Despite repeated public objections, even US President Joe Biden’s appeals against the Rafah offensive have gone unheeded.

According to the Associated Press, Biden urgently warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a phone call on Monday against invading Rafah, stressing it would only lead to more deaths and exacerbate the despair in the embattled enclave.

The Israeli military said its operation in Rafah is designed to eliminate fighters and dismantle infrastructure used by Hamas, according to Reuters.




An aerial view of cargo trucks relocated away from the Rafah border crossing with Egypt. (Maxar Technologies)

Israel’s overnight strikes across Rafah killed at least 23 people, including five children, according to local health officials.

Prior to that, Israeli warplanes pounded homes in Rafah, killing at least 27 Palestinians, including two babies, according to Gaza’s health authority.

This is despite Hamas accepting the terms of a Qatari-Egyptian ceasefire proposal on Monday.

Humanitarian organizations concur that the impact of Israel’s operation in Rafah will extend beyond the eastern area, affecting more than 1.4 million people who have been sheltering in the southern governorate — and the entirety of Gaza’s remaining population.

“While the initial ‘evacuation orders’ and operations announced in the east of Rafah are directly impacting 100,000 people, over 1.4 million are sheltering in Rafah, half of which are children, and are at direct risk of any escalated military operations across the area,” Salim Oweis, a spokesperson for UNICEF in Gaza, told Arab News.




Displaced Palestinians flee Rafah for safer areas in southern Gaza. (AFP)

“The extended impact will be far-reaching to include all the 2.2 million residents of Gaza.”

Elaborating, Oweis added: “Rafah is the main hub of all humanitarian response, and any impact on the already struggling aid delivery and humanitarian response will hamper the efforts across Gaza.”

Rafah is the last population center in the Gaza Strip after the seven-month Israeli assault obliterated three-quarters of the besieged enclave, killing at least 34,700 Palestinians according to Gaza’s health ministry, and displacing 90 percent of the population of 2.3 million people.  

Israel’s evacuation orders in eastern Rafah, coupled with unceasing airstrikes across Gaza’s south, have instilled panic among the war-weary residents, triggering an exodus of thousands of Palestinians who have nowhere to seek refuge.

Describing the situation across the Gaza Strip as “a state of despair, chaos and confusion” as Israel carries out its assault on Rafah, NRC’s Bayram said that “by issuing its orders, Israel has again pushed over 1 million people into the unknown.”

FASTFACTS

• Israel ordered Palestinians to evacuate to Al-Mawasi — deemed ‘completely uninhabitable.’

• Closing Rafah crossing would cut Gaza’s only viable humanitarian lifeline, warn aid chiefs.

• Fears that Rafah-wide incursion would ‘entail mass carnage and a complete bloodbath.’

He added: “Let’s not forget, while the orders cover an area with 100,000 people east of Rafah, the rest of the population in central and western areas will think they are next to be forcibly transferred, and so they will try to get out while they can.”

Tahani Mustafa, a senior Palestine analyst at the International Crisis Group, foresees a “horrific” humanitarian situation if the Rafah hostilities do not stop.

“All movement of people and goods has been closed off, at a time where famine is already in the north and was very much on the verge in the south,” she told Arab News.

“There’s been no contingency plan in place, and all foreign aid delegations have been evacuated. If this goes ahead as Israel states, it will be a massacre.”




Gallant promised to “deepen” the Rafah operation if hostage deal talks failed. (AFP)

As Israel has blocked aid through the Rafah border crossing, aid groups are concerned about the impact on much-needed humanitarian assistance across the Gaza Strip. This concern is exacerbated by the suspension of aid deliveries to Gaza through the Kerem Shalom crossing following a nearby Hamas rocket attack.

Oxfam’s James cautioned that “even one day of closure (of crossing points) means that additional lives are likely to be lost to hunger and illness.”

She called on Israel to “adhere to its obligations under international humanitarian law to ensure civilian populations are provided with the most essential aid in sufficient quantities.”

Khalidi pointed out that aid organizations “are already facing huge obstructions” in delivering aid across Gaza.

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“Often aid is not making it even past Khan Younis,” she said. “And hence the descent to hell, into starvation, that we have seen over the last course of months in the north, but also across the strip.”

Stressing the need to open “all crossings” to meet the immense and deep humanitarian needs in Gaza, Khalidi said: “We’re hearing that maybe other crossings will open, but the problem is that we already had two crossings open, and that was not enough.”




Displaced Palestinians arrive in Khan Yunis after Israel issued an evacuation order for parts of Rafah. (AFP)

The World Food Programme warned on Saturday that northern Gaza is experiencing a “full-blown famine,” which is “moving its way south.”

Bayram of the NRC also warned that “the entire aid system is at the point of collapse.”

He said: “Closing down the Rafah crossing means cutting off the only viable lifeline currently available for aid workers,” highlighting that the NRC relies on the Rafah crossing to bring in essential aid.

“Fuel is running low already and the existing stocks will not be able to sustain increasing demand,” he added, stressing that “Israel must reverse its plans so we can avoid an inevitable catastrophe.”

UNICEF’s Oweis emphasized that “any interruption to the already limited aid access will have a devastating impact on the humanitarian situation as a whole.”

He added: “With no fuel coming in, all the basic services will be in jeopardy of a total halt, including aid delivery and what’s left of healthcare.

“Not having food entering the strip means that more children will fall into malnutrition and disease, and will be put at heightened risk of death.”




A woman mourns a child killed by Israeli strikes on Rafah. (AFP)

Gaza’s health authority reported on April 25 that since February, at least 28 children, most of them no older than 12 months, had died of malnutrition and dehydration.

Oweis stressed that “the only hope for a way out of a worsening humanitarian catastrophe is simple, and it’s an immediate and long-lasting humanitarian ceasefire.”

He added: “Meanwhile, safe and consistent access for humanitarian organizations and personnel to reach children and their families with lifesaving aid, wherever they are in the Gaza Strip, is crucial.”


Killing of Hezbollah chief Nasrallah by Israel sparks condemnation

Killing of Hezbollah chief Nasrallah by Israel sparks condemnation
Updated 9 sec ago
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Killing of Hezbollah chief Nasrallah by Israel sparks condemnation

Killing of Hezbollah chief Nasrallah by Israel sparks condemnation
  • Iran promises to ensure that Nasrallah’s work will continue after his death
  • The elimination of Nasrallah “is in no way in Israel’s security interest,” says German minister


Lebanese mourners carry a portrait of slain Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah during a funeral march for 16 people who were killed in Israeli strikes in the Mount Lebanon village of Maaysra on Sept. 27, 2024. (AFP)


Kashmiri Shia Muslims protest against Israel following the killing of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut, in Srinagar, on Sept. 28, 2024. (REUTERS)


Demonstrators carry signs and flags during a protest in support of Lebanon and Gaza, in Amman, Jordan, on Sept. 27, 2024. (REUTERS)


Iranians protest in Tehran's Palestine Square on September 28, 2024, after the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah group confirmed reports of the killing of its leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli air strike in Beirut the previous day. (AFP)


Greek Catholic Archmandrite Abdullah Yulio (C-R) join marchers in the city of Ramallah in the occupied West Bank on September 28, 2024, to protest the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli air strike in Beirut the previous day. (AFP)

 

PARIS: Israel’s foes vowed revenge on Saturday after Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah announced its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli air strike on a suburb of Beirut.
Several world powers also warned of the killing’s potential repercussions, as the spectre of all-out war looms over the Middle East.

United Nations chief Antonio Guterres said he was “gravely concerned by the dramatic escalation of events in Beirut in the last 24 hours.”

Palestinian militant group Hamas, whose unprecedented October 7 attack on Israel sparked the devastating war in Gaza that drew in fellow Iran-backed groups including Hezbollah, called Nasrallah’s killing “a cowardly terrorist act.”\

“We condemn in the strongest terms this barbaric Zionist aggression and targeting of residential buildings,” Hamas said in a statement.

Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas offered his “deep condolences” to Lebanon for the deaths of Nasrallah and civilians, who “fell as a result of the brutal Israeli aggression,” according to a statement from his office.

First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref warned Israel that Nasrallah’s death would “bring about their destruction,” Iran’s ISNA news agency quoted him as saying.

The foreign ministry of Iran, which finances and arms Hezbollah, said Nasrallah’s work will continue after his death. “His sacred goal will be realized in the liberation of Quds (Jerusalem), God willing,” spokesman Nasser Kanani posted on X.

Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced five days of public mourning.

Iranians protest in Tehran's Palestine Square on September 28, 2024, after the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah group confirmed reports of the killing of its leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli air strike in Beirut the previous day. (AFP)

Russia’s foreign ministry said “we decisively condemn the latest political murder carried out by Israel” and urged it to “immediately cease military action” in Lebanon.

Israel would “bear full responsibility” for the “tragic” consequences the killing could bring to the region, the ministry added in a statement.

The Iran-backed Yemeni rebels, who have been firing on ships in the Red Sea in solidarity with Hamas, said in a statement that Nasrallah’s killing “will increase the flame of sacrifice, the heat of enthusiasm, the strength of resolve” against Israel, with their leader vowing Nasrallah’s death “will not be in vain.”

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose country maintains diplomatic relations with Israel but who has been a sharp critic of its offensive in Gaza, said on X that Lebanon was being subjected to a “genocide,” without referring directly to Nasrallah.

In a post on X, Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel called the killing a “cowardly targeted assassination” that “seriously threatens regional and global peace and security, for which Israel bears full responsibility with the complicity of the United States.”

Greek Catholic Archmandrite Abdullah Yulio (C-R) join marchers in the city of Ramallah in the occupied West Bank on September 28, 2024, to protest the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli air strike in Beirut the previous day. (AFP)

Mixed reactions from allies

As expected, US leaders welcomed Nasrallah's demise, with President Joe Biden calling it “a measure of justice for his many victims, including thousands of Americans, Israelis and Lebanese civilians.”

Washington supports Israel’s right to defend itself against “Iranian-supported terrorist groups” and the “defense posture” of US forces in the region would be “further enhanced,” Biden added in a statement.

Vice President Kamala Harris said Nasrallah was “a terrorist with American blood on his hands” and said she would “always support Israel’s right to defend itself against Iran and Iran-backed terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.”

Leading Republicans in the House of Representatives also welcomed the end of a “reign of bloodshed, oppression, and terror” by “one of the most brutal terrorists on the planet.”

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau described Nasrallah as “the leader of a terrorist organization that attacked and killed innocent civilians, causing immense suffering across the region.” But he called for more to be done to protect civilians in the conflict, adding: “We urge calm and restraint during this critical time.”

Argentine President Javier Milei reposted on X a message from a member of his council of economic advisers, David Epstein, who hailed the killing.

“Israel eliminated one of the greatest contemporary murderers. Responsible, among others, for the cowardly attacks in #ARG,” it said. “Today the world is a little freer.”

Other allies of Israel sang a different tune.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock told ARD television that the killing “threatens destabilization for the whole of Lebanon,” which “is in no way in Israel’s security interest.”

UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy said in a post on X that he had spoken with the Lebanese premier.

“We agreed on the need for an immediate ceasefire to bring an end to the bloodshed. A diplomatic solution is the only way to restore security and stability for the Lebanese and Israeli people,” he said.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot demanded Israel “immediately stop its strikes in Lebanon” and said it was opposed to any ground operation in the country.

France also “calls on other actors, notably Hezbollah and Iran, to abstain from any action that could lead to additional destabilization and regional conflagration,” the foreign ministry said in a statement.

 


War monitor says 12 dead in strikes targeting pro-Iranian fighters in Syria

An Israeli Air Force fighter jet flying over the border area with south Lebanon on April 8, 2024. (AFP)
An Israeli Air Force fighter jet flying over the border area with south Lebanon on April 8, 2024. (AFP)
Updated 29 September 2024
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War monitor says 12 dead in strikes targeting pro-Iranian fighters in Syria

An Israeli Air Force fighter jet flying over the border area with south Lebanon on April 8, 2024. (AFP)
  • Israeli authorities rarely comment on individual strikes in Syria, but have repeatedly said they will not allow arch-enemy Iran to expand its presence there

BEIRUT, Lebanon: Twelve pro-Iranian fighters have been killed in air strikes of unknown origin in eastern Syria, a war monitor said Sunday, adding that a large number of people were wounded.
“Twelve pro-Iranian fighters were killed in air strikes of unknown origin targeting their positions in the city of Deir Ezzor and to the east of the city, as well as the Boukamal region, near the border with Iraq,” said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
The strikes were not immediately claimed by any entity, according to the monitor.
Five of the strikes had targeted military positions near Deir Ezzor airport, it added.
Iran has been providing military aid to Syria since the civil war there began in 2011, while Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes targeting pro-Iranian groups in eastern Syria. The United States has also targeted such groups in the country’s east.
Israeli authorities rarely comment on individual strikes in Syria, but have repeatedly said they will not allow arch-enemy Iran to expand its presence there.
Israel has launched an intense bombing campaign against Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon in recent days, intensifying fears of a regional war.
The Israeli army has also repeatedly targeted the movement’s arms supply routes on the Syrian-Lebanese border, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
 

 


US orders some Beirut embassy staff members to leave Lebanon

US orders some Beirut embassy staff members to leave Lebanon
Updated 29 September 2024
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US orders some Beirut embassy staff members to leave Lebanon

US orders some Beirut embassy staff members to leave Lebanon
  • The advisory covered eligible family members as well as non-essential employees
  • “The US embassy strongly encourages US citizens in Southern Lebanon, near the borders with Syria, and or in refugee settlements to depart those areas immediately,” it said

WASHINGTON: The US Department of State on Saturday ordered some employees at its embassy in Beirut and their eligible family members to the leave Lebanon amid escalating tensions in the Middle East following the killing of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah by Israel.
“US Embassy Beirut personnel are restricted from personal travel without advance permission,” the State Department said in a statement. “Additional travel restrictions may be imposed on US personnel under Chief of Mission security responsibility, with little to no notice due to increased security issues or threats.”
The advisory covered eligible family members as well as non-essential employees.
The State Department also urged Americans in the country to leave, warning the currently limited options to depart might become unavailable if the security situation worsened.
“The US embassy strongly encourages US citizens in Southern Lebanon, near the borders with Syria, and or in refugee settlements to depart those areas immediately,” it said.

 


Iran’s supreme leader taken to secure location, sources say

Iran’s supreme leader taken to secure location, sources say
Updated 29 September 2024
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Iran’s supreme leader taken to secure location, sources say

Iran’s supreme leader taken to secure location, sources say
  • Khamenei issued a statement later on Saturday, following Israel’s announcement that Nasrallah had been killed, saying: “The fate of this region will be determined by the forces of resistance, with Hezbollah at the forefront”

DUBAI: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been taken to a secure location inside Iran amid heightened security, sources told Reuters, a day after Israel killed the head of Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah in a strike on Beirut. The move to safeguard Iran’s top decision-maker is the latest show of nervousness by the Iranian authorities as Israel launched a series of devastating attacks on Hezbollah, Iran’s best armed and most well-equipped ally in the region.
Reuters reported this month that Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards Corps, the ideological guardians of the Islamic Republic, had ordered all of members to stop using any type of communication devices after thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah blew up.
Lebanon and Hezbollah say Israel was behind the pager and walkie-talkie attacks. Israel neither denied nor confirmed involvement.
The two regional officials briefed by Tehran and who told Reuters that Khamenei had been moved to a safe location also said Iran was in contact with Hezbollah and other regional proxy groups to determine the next step after Nasrallah’s killing.
The sources declined to be identified further due to the sensitivity of the matter. As well as killing Nasrallah, Friday’s strikes by Israel on Beirut killed Revolutionary Guards’ deputy commander Abbas Nilforoushan, Iranian media reported on Saturday. Other Revolutionary Guard’s commanders have also been killed since the Gaza War erupted last year and violence flared elsewhere.
Khamenei issued a statement later on Saturday, following Israel’s announcement that Nasrallah had been killed, saying: “The fate of this region will be determined by the forces of resistance, with Hezbollah at the forefront.”
“The blood of the martyr shall not go unavenged,” he said in a separate statement, in which he announced five days of mourning to mark Nasrallah’s death.
Nasrallah’s death is a major blow to Iran, removing an influential ally who helped build Hezbollah into the linchpin of Tehran’s constellation of allied groups in the Arab world. Iran’s network of regional allies, known as the ‘Axis of Resistance’, stretch from Hezbollah in Lebanon to Hamas in Gaza, Iran-backed militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen. Hamas has been fighting a war with Israel for almost a year, since its fighters stormed into Israel on Oct. 7. The Houthis, meanwhile, have launched missiles at Israel and at ships sailing in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea along the Yemeni coast.
Hezbollah has been engaged in exchanges of fire across the Lebanese border throughout the Gaza War and has repeatedly said it would not stop until there was a ceasefire in Gaza.
After the pager and walkie-talkies strikes, one Iranian security official told Reuters that a large-scale operation was underway by the Revolutionary Guards to inspect all communications devices. He said most of these devices were either homemade or imported from China and Russia.
The official said Iran was concerned about infiltration by Israeli agents, including Iranians on Israel’s payroll and a thorough investigation of personnel has already begun, targeting mid and high-ranking members of the Revolutionary Guards.
In another statement on Saturday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the United States had played a role in Nasrallah’s killing as a supplier of weapons to Israel.
“The Americans cannot deny their complicity with the Zionists,” he said in the statement carried by state media.

 

 


Turkiye says Hezbollah’s Nasrallah will be hard to replace

Turkiye says Hezbollah’s Nasrallah will be hard to replace
Updated 29 September 2024
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Turkiye says Hezbollah’s Nasrallah will be hard to replace

Turkiye says Hezbollah’s Nasrallah will be hard to replace
  • Hakan Fidan said the “helplesness” of the United States and other Western countries was allowing the violence to continue

ANKARA: Turkiye’s foreign minister said on Saturday that Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah was an important figure for Lebanon and the region and would be hard to replace after he was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut a day earlier.
Speaking to state broadcaster TRT Haber in New York, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan also said Turkiye believed Israel would not stop in Lebanon and would spread the war in Gaza to the wider region.
He said the “helplesness” of the United States and other Western countries was allowing the violence to continue.