Why Israel’s military operation in Rafah will lead to ‘inevitable catastrophe’ in Gaza

Special Why Israel’s military operation in Rafah will lead to ‘inevitable catastrophe’ in Gaza
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant talks with soldiers during a visit to the border with the Gaza Strip near Rafah. (AFP/Israeli Army)
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Updated 08 May 2024
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Why Israel’s military operation in Rafah will lead to ‘inevitable catastrophe’ in Gaza

Why Israel’s military operation in Rafah will lead to ‘inevitable catastrophe’ in Gaza
  • Israel has seized control of the Rafah border crossing and ordered 100,000 Palestinians to “evacuate immediately”
  • Full-scale assault on Rafah would intensify humanitarian emergency throughout Gaza, aid agencies warn

LONDON: Palestinians in Gaza’s southern governorate of Rafah face a desperate situation as the Israeli military proceeds with its long-planned assault on the area, capturing the Gaza side of the border crossing with Egypt and ordering displaced families to move yet again.

The Israeli army announced on Tuesday morning that its 401st Brigade had taken “operational control” of the Rafah border crossing after advancing into the eastern part during the night as part of its mission to dislodge Hamas.

Earlier on Monday, Israel ordered some 100,000 Palestinians in eastern Rafah to “evacuate immediately” to Al-Mawasi, a coastal town near Khan Younis that humanitarian organizations said was “completely uninhabitable.”

Mercy Corps said Palestinians in eastern Rafah were confronted with two impossible choices: Face death under bombardment or attempt a perilous journey to an unlivable area with no access to essential aid.




Smoke billows after Israeli bombardment in Rafah. (AFP)

Bushra Khalidi, advocacy director for Oxfam in the Palestinian territories, says civilians fleeing Rafah have been left with nowhere to go.

She told Arab News that people in Rafah “are worried of even leaving their homes” because they fear they will not find anywhere in the middle area or in Al-Mawasi.

According to the AFP news agency, more than 74 percent of the infrastructure in Gaza has been destroyed since Oct. 7 when Israel launched its bombing campaign in retaliation for the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel.

Al-Mawasi, which Israel had dubbed a “humanitarian zone,” is “already overpopulated and filled with makeshift tents,” said Khalidi. “There is no infrastructure, there (are) no services, and no facilities to host this number of (internally displaced people).”

Moreover, this narrow coastal strip, measuring just 1 km wide and 14 km long, already hosts an estimated 250,000 displaced Gazans, according to the Palestinian Red Crescent.

Ahmed Bayram, media adviser for the Norwegian Refugee Council in the Middle East, stressed that “there is not a corner or a street in Gaza where people can go expecting safety.”




Israeli tanks enter the Gazan side of the Rafah border crossing on Tuesday, May 7, 2024. (AP/Israeli Army)

He told Arab News: “Al-Mawasi, which is one of the areas Israel has asked people to go to, is full to the very brim. There is no free spot left in that narrow stretch of land, which is not equipped for such high demand.”

According to Mercy Corps, Al-Mawasi is already a sea of makeshift tents, with little in the way of humanitarian relief, electricity, or water.

It also remains unclear whether Palestinians can flee to neighboring countries through the Rafah crossing now that it is under Israeli control, said Ruth James, Oxfam’s regional humanitarian coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa.

She told Arab News: “Many Palestinians in Gaza currently do not have the recognized right to return to their original homes. Given this context, Egypt, or any other state, should be cautious of inadvertently abetting any potential efforts by Israel, or any other party, to ethnically cleanse the Palestinian population of Gaza.”

Volker Turk, the UN human rights chief, slammed Israel’s evacuation order as “inhumane,” warning that such an action could amount to a war crime, Reuters reported.

Oxfam’s Khalidi also warned that if a Rafah-wide incursion happens, which is the worst-case scenario, it would “entail mass carnage and a complete bloodbath.”




An injured Palestinian boy awaits treatment at the Kuwaiti hospital following Israeli strikes in Rafah. (AFP)

She explained that this is due to “how small” Rafah is and “because of how congested and overpopulated it is.”

Echoing her colleague’s fears, James said: “It’s hard to imagine the scale of need caused by a Rafah invasion. Simply put, this invasion can’t happen. There must be an immediate and permanent ceasefire.”

She added: “The alternative is an avoidable, massive loss of civilian life.”

Despite repeated public objections, even US President Joe Biden’s appeals against the Rafah offensive have gone unheeded.

According to the Associated Press, Biden urgently warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a phone call on Monday against invading Rafah, stressing it would only lead to more deaths and exacerbate the despair in the embattled enclave.

The Israeli military said its operation in Rafah is designed to eliminate fighters and dismantle infrastructure used by Hamas, according to Reuters.




An aerial view of cargo trucks relocated away from the Rafah border crossing with Egypt. (Maxar Technologies)

Israel’s overnight strikes across Rafah killed at least 23 people, including five children, according to local health officials.

Prior to that, Israeli warplanes pounded homes in Rafah, killing at least 27 Palestinians, including two babies, according to Gaza’s health authority.

This is despite Hamas accepting the terms of a Qatari-Egyptian ceasefire proposal on Monday.

Humanitarian organizations concur that the impact of Israel’s operation in Rafah will extend beyond the eastern area, affecting more than 1.4 million people who have been sheltering in the southern governorate — and the entirety of Gaza’s remaining population.

“While the initial ‘evacuation orders’ and operations announced in the east of Rafah are directly impacting 100,000 people, over 1.4 million are sheltering in Rafah, half of which are children, and are at direct risk of any escalated military operations across the area,” Salim Oweis, a spokesperson for UNICEF in Gaza, told Arab News.




Displaced Palestinians flee Rafah for safer areas in southern Gaza. (AFP)

“The extended impact will be far-reaching to include all the 2.2 million residents of Gaza.”

Elaborating, Oweis added: “Rafah is the main hub of all humanitarian response, and any impact on the already struggling aid delivery and humanitarian response will hamper the efforts across Gaza.”

Rafah is the last population center in the Gaza Strip after the seven-month Israeli assault obliterated three-quarters of the besieged enclave, killing at least 34,700 Palestinians according to Gaza’s health ministry, and displacing 90 percent of the population of 2.3 million people.  

Israel’s evacuation orders in eastern Rafah, coupled with unceasing airstrikes across Gaza’s south, have instilled panic among the war-weary residents, triggering an exodus of thousands of Palestinians who have nowhere to seek refuge.

Describing the situation across the Gaza Strip as “a state of despair, chaos and confusion” as Israel carries out its assault on Rafah, NRC’s Bayram said that “by issuing its orders, Israel has again pushed over 1 million people into the unknown.”

FASTFACTS

• Israel ordered Palestinians to evacuate to Al-Mawasi — deemed ‘completely uninhabitable.’

• Closing Rafah crossing would cut Gaza’s only viable humanitarian lifeline, warn aid chiefs.

• Fears that Rafah-wide incursion would ‘entail mass carnage and a complete bloodbath.’

He added: “Let’s not forget, while the orders cover an area with 100,000 people east of Rafah, the rest of the population in central and western areas will think they are next to be forcibly transferred, and so they will try to get out while they can.”

Tahani Mustafa, a senior Palestine analyst at the International Crisis Group, foresees a “horrific” humanitarian situation if the Rafah hostilities do not stop.

“All movement of people and goods has been closed off, at a time where famine is already in the north and was very much on the verge in the south,” she told Arab News.

“There’s been no contingency plan in place, and all foreign aid delegations have been evacuated. If this goes ahead as Israel states, it will be a massacre.”




Gallant promised to “deepen” the Rafah operation if hostage deal talks failed. (AFP)

As Israel has blocked aid through the Rafah border crossing, aid groups are concerned about the impact on much-needed humanitarian assistance across the Gaza Strip. This concern is exacerbated by the suspension of aid deliveries to Gaza through the Kerem Shalom crossing following a nearby Hamas rocket attack.

Oxfam’s James cautioned that “even one day of closure (of crossing points) means that additional lives are likely to be lost to hunger and illness.”

She called on Israel to “adhere to its obligations under international humanitarian law to ensure civilian populations are provided with the most essential aid in sufficient quantities.”

Khalidi pointed out that aid organizations “are already facing huge obstructions” in delivering aid across Gaza.

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“Often aid is not making it even past Khan Younis,” she said. “And hence the descent to hell, into starvation, that we have seen over the last course of months in the north, but also across the strip.”

Stressing the need to open “all crossings” to meet the immense and deep humanitarian needs in Gaza, Khalidi said: “We’re hearing that maybe other crossings will open, but the problem is that we already had two crossings open, and that was not enough.”




Displaced Palestinians arrive in Khan Yunis after Israel issued an evacuation order for parts of Rafah. (AFP)

The World Food Programme warned on Saturday that northern Gaza is experiencing a “full-blown famine,” which is “moving its way south.”

Bayram of the NRC also warned that “the entire aid system is at the point of collapse.”

He said: “Closing down the Rafah crossing means cutting off the only viable lifeline currently available for aid workers,” highlighting that the NRC relies on the Rafah crossing to bring in essential aid.

“Fuel is running low already and the existing stocks will not be able to sustain increasing demand,” he added, stressing that “Israel must reverse its plans so we can avoid an inevitable catastrophe.”

UNICEF’s Oweis emphasized that “any interruption to the already limited aid access will have a devastating impact on the humanitarian situation as a whole.”

He added: “With no fuel coming in, all the basic services will be in jeopardy of a total halt, including aid delivery and what’s left of healthcare.

“Not having food entering the strip means that more children will fall into malnutrition and disease, and will be put at heightened risk of death.”




A woman mourns a child killed by Israeli strikes on Rafah. (AFP)

Gaza’s health authority reported on April 25 that since February, at least 28 children, most of them no older than 12 months, had died of malnutrition and dehydration.

Oweis stressed that “the only hope for a way out of a worsening humanitarian catastrophe is simple, and it’s an immediate and long-lasting humanitarian ceasefire.”

He added: “Meanwhile, safe and consistent access for humanitarian organizations and personnel to reach children and their families with lifesaving aid, wherever they are in the Gaza Strip, is crucial.”


Death toll in Israel’s Gaza offensive tops 45,000

Death toll in Israel’s Gaza offensive tops 45,000
Updated 59 min 46 sec ago
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Death toll in Israel’s Gaza offensive tops 45,000

Death toll in Israel’s Gaza offensive tops 45,000
  • But real toll believed higher because thousands of bodies are still buried under rubble or in areas that medics cannot access
  • Israel claims Hamas is responsible for the civilian death toll because it operates from within civilian areas

DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip: Health officials in the Gaza Strip say the death toll from the 14-month war between Israel and Hamas militants has topped 45,000 people.
The Gaza Health Ministry does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count, but it has said that more than half of the fatalities are women and children. The Israeli military says it has killed more than 17,000 militants, without providing evidence.
The Health Ministry said 45,028 people have been killed and 106,962 have been wounded since the start of the war in October 2023. It has said the real toll is higher because thousands of bodies are still buried under rubble or in areas that medics cannot access. The latest war has been by far the deadliest round of fighting between Israel and Hamas, with the death toll now amounting to roughly 2 percent of Gaza’s entire prewar population of about 2.3 million.
Israel claims Hamas is responsible for the civilian death toll because it operates from within civilian areas in the densely populated Gaza Strip. Rights groups and Palestinians say Israel has failed to take sufficient precautions to avoid civilian deaths.
The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting another 250. Around 100 hostages are still inside Gaza, at least a third of whom are believed to be dead. Most of the rest were released during a ceasefire last year.
An Israeli strike killed at least 10 people, including a family of four, in Gaza City overnight, Palestinian medics said Monday.
The strike late Sunday hit a house in Gaza City’s eastern Shijaiyah neighborhood, according to the Health Ministry’s emergency service. Rescuers recovered the bodies of 10 people from under the rubble, including those of two parents and their two children, it said.


UN to HTS leader: Syria must have a ‘credible’ transition

UN to HTS leader: Syria must have a ‘credible’ transition
Updated 16 December 2024
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UN to HTS leader: Syria must have a ‘credible’ transition

UN to HTS leader: Syria must have a ‘credible’ transition
  • Special envoy underlined ‘the intention of the United Nations to render all assistance to the Syrian people’

DAMASCUS: The United Nations told the leader of the Islamist Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham group which toppled Bashar Assad that Syria must have a “credible and inclusive” transition.
The UN special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen who arrived in Damascus on Sunday, has met Abu Mohammed Al-Golani — who now goes under his real name Ahmed Al-Sharaa — Pedersen’s office said Monday in a statement on Telegram.
He also met interim prime minister Mohammed Al-Bashir, it said.
Pedersen met them after Saturday’s international meeting on Syria in Jordan, and stressed “the need for a credible and inclusive Syrian-owned and led political transition based on the principles of United Nations Security Council resolution 2254 (2015).”
The UN envoy also underlined “the intention of the United Nations to render all assistance to the Syrian people,” and was briefed on their “challenges and priorities,” the statement added.
It said Pedersen had several engagements planned in the days ahead, but did not elaborate.
Assad was toppled by a lightning 11-day offensive that swept down from northwest Syria, with fighters entering the capital on December 8.
Abandoned by his Russian and Iranian backers, Assad fled into exile in Moscow, bring to an end five decades of abuses by his clan.
The HTS group that led his overthrow is a former branch of Al-Qaeda in Syria, and the United States and other Western governments still classify it as a “terrorist” group.
While hailing Assad’s downfall, several nations have said they will wait to see how Syria’s new Sunni Muslim authorities treat minorities in the multi-ethnic and multi-confessional country.
Several countries including the United States and Britain have said they have already made contact with Golani.


Leader of Russia’s Chechnya says he is ready to ensure wheat supplies to Syria if necessary

Leader of Russia’s Chechnya says he is ready to ensure wheat supplies to Syria if necessary
Updated 16 December 2024
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Leader of Russia’s Chechnya says he is ready to ensure wheat supplies to Syria if necessary

Leader of Russia’s Chechnya says he is ready to ensure wheat supplies to Syria if necessary
  • Russian wheat supplies to Syria had been suspended due to uncertainty about the new government there after two vessels carrying Russian wheat for Syria failed to reach their destinations

MOSCOW: Chechnya’s Kremlin-backed leader Ramzan Kadyrov has said he is ready to step in if necessary and ensure that Syria gets the wheat it needs in what he said was the unlikely event that Russian wheat supplies to the country were disrupted.
Russian and Syrian sources told Reuters on Friday that Russian wheat supplies to Syria had been suspended due to uncertainty about the new government there after two vessels carrying Russian wheat for Syria failed to reach their destinations.
In a message posted on his Telegram channel on Sunday, Kadyrov said that the two rerouted vessels had been carrying “commercial” wheat and that Russian state-backed supplies to Syria had not been affected.
“Even if for some impossible and incredible reasons this does happen, I, as the head of the Chechen Republic, am ready to take responsibility and ensure the necessary amount of wheat for Syria,” Kadyrov wrote.
Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, supplies wheat to Syria through complex financial and logistical arrangements, circumventing Western sanctions imposed on both countries. It is not clear what share of wheat is supplied by the state.
Kadyrov did not specify how he would organize and finance wheat supplies to Syria if he had to step in and where the wheat would come from.
But he said he could act, if necessary, via a charitable fund named after his late father which helped to rebuild some mosques and provided humanitarian aid to Syria during ousted President Bashar Assad’s rule.
Russian analysts estimate Russia’s exports to Syria at 300,000 tons so far this season, with the country ranking 24th among buyers of Russian wheat. They estimate Syria’s total wheat imports at about 2 million tons.
Russia is the main supplier of wheat to Syria, and disruption in supplies could cause hunger in the country of over 23 million people. Sources told Reuters the two sides are in contact regarding supplies. (Reporting by Olga Popova and Gleb Bryanski Editing by Andrew Osborn)


Saudi Arabia condemns Israeli plan to double annexed Golan population

Saudi Arabia condemns Israeli plan to double annexed Golan population
Updated 16 December 2024
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Saudi Arabia condemns Israeli plan to double annexed Golan population

Saudi Arabia condemns Israeli plan to double annexed Golan population
  • Israel’s government ‘unanimously approved’ the $11 million ‘plan for the demographic development of the Golan’
  • The Kingdom says the strategic plateau is occupied Syrian Arab land, calls for respecting Syria’s territorial integrity

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia on Sunday condemned and denounced the Israeli government’s approval of a plan to double the population of the occupied and annexed Golan Heights.

Israel’s government “unanimously approved” the $11 million “plan for the demographic development of the Golan... in light of the war and the new front in Syria and the desire to double the population,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said.

“The Kingdom renews its call to the international community to condemn these Israeli violations, stressing the need to respect Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

The statement added that the strategic plateau is occupied Syrian Arab land and condemned Israel’s “continued sabotage of Syria’s chances of restoring its security and stability.”

Israel has occupied most of the Golan Heights since 1967 and annexed that area in 1981 in a move recognized only by the United States.


HRW accuses Sudan paramilitaries of widespread sexual violence

HRW accuses Sudan paramilitaries of widespread sexual violence
Updated 16 December 2024
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HRW accuses Sudan paramilitaries of widespread sexual violence

HRW accuses Sudan paramilitaries of widespread sexual violence
  • It is the latest such report by international monitors alleging sexual violence during Sudan’s 20-month war
  • HRW said it had documented dozens of cases since September 2023 involving women and girls

NAIROBI: Human Rights Watch (HRW) on Monday accused the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied militias, at war with the army, of committing widespread sexual violence in southern Sudan.
It is the latest such report by international monitors alleging sexual violence during Sudan’s 20-month war which has led to what the United States called the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.
In its new report, HRW said it had documented dozens of cases since September 2023 involving women and girls aged between seven and 50 who were subjected to sexual violence, including gang rape and sexual slavery, in South Kordofan state.
The latest details follow a separate report last week from the New York-based watchdog which more broadly accused the RSF and allied Arab militias of carrying out numerous abuses, mainly against ethnic Nuba civilians, in South Kordofan state from December 2023 to March 2024.
These attacks, it said, “had not been widely reported” and constituted “war crimes.”
Parts of South Kordofan and parts of Blue Nile state are controlled by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), a rebel group.
The SPLM-N faction led by Abdelaziz Al-Hilu refused to join other Sudan rebels in signing a 2020 peace deal with the government, as Hilu sought a secular state as a prerequisite.
Many South Kordofan residents are members of Sudan’s Christian minority.
Hilu also at that time refused talks with RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, linking him with atrocities.
SPLM-N has clashed with both the army and RSF in parts of South Kordofan since April, 2023 when the war between the paramilitaries and Sudanese Armed Forces began, HRW said.
The conflict has claimed the lives of tens of thousands of people, internally displaced more than eight million, according to the UN, and forced more than three million others to seek safety in neighboring countries.
According to the HRW report, many of the victims were gang-raped at their or their neighbors’ homes, often in front of families while some were abducted and held in conditions of enslavement.
One survivor, a 35-year-old Nuba woman, described being gang-raped by six RSF fighters who stormed her family compound and killed her husband and son when they tried to intervene.
“They kept raping me, all six of them,” she said.
Another survivor, aged 18, recounted being taken in February with 17 others to a base where they joined 33 detained women and girls.
“On a daily basis for three months, the fighters raped and beat the women and girls, including the 18-year-old survivor, crimes that also constitute sexual slavery,” HRW said.
At times, the captives were even chained together, it said.
“These acts of sexual violence, which constitute war crimes... underscore the urgent need for meaningful international action to protect civilians and deliver justice,” HRW said in its report.
The UN’s humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher raised the alarm late in November over an “epidemic of sexual violence” against women in Sudan, saying that the world “must do better.”
In October, the United Nations Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for the Sudan said both sides have committed abuses including torture and sexual violence. But it accused the paramilitaries, in particular, of “sexual violence on a large scale.”
These included “gang rapes and abducting and detaining victims in conditions that amount to sexual slavery,” the mission said.
In its initial report last week, HRW urged the UN and African Union to “urgently deploy a mission to protect civilians in Sudan.”