Biden in ‘very tough spot’ trying to stop Middle East escalation

President Joe Biden walks to the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, April 13, 2024. (AP)

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Updated 15 April 2024

AFP

April 15, 2024 00:30

Biden in ‘very tough spot’ trying to stop Middle East escalation

Biden has been trying to avoid a regional war that could suck the United States back into the Middle East ever since Hamas’s October 7 attack

Updated 15 April 2024

AFP

April 15, 2024 00:30

WASHINGTON: Iran’s attack on Israel gives Joe Biden a familiar dilemma, but on steroids — how to balance support for a difficult ally while preventing the nightmare scenario of a wider war?
Tensions with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s war on Gaza were papered over as the US president offered “ironclad” support, including shooting down Iranian drones.
But the White House said it would not support an Israeli counterattack and warned Israel to “think carefully” about escalation that could trigger a full-blown regional conflict.
The question then for Biden, who is facing a tough reelection battle against Donald Trump in November, is what if Netanyahu goes ahead anyway, as he has done in Gaza?
“It puts him in a very tough spot” Colin Clarke, Director of Research at the Soufan Group, told AFP.
“I think he’s suspicious of Netanyahu’s motives here... that Netanyahu is attempting to broaden the war throughout the region to deflect from how poorly the war is going for him in Gaza.”
Biden has been trying to avoid a regional war that could suck the United States back into the Middle East ever since Hamas’s October 7 attack and Israel’s offensive on the Gaza Strip.
The 81-year-old has, however, struggled to use the leverage provided by the United States being Israel’s main military supplier, especially given a long history of tense relations with Netanyahu.
Biden has been increasingly critical of the death toll in the Palestinian territory and even went as far as suggesting the US could limit military aid, but so far to little effect.
Iran’s attack has seen Biden go back to showing overt support — but at the same time scrambling to stop the crisis spiraling.
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Netanyahu was “well aware” that Biden did not want a “wider war.”
Biden himself warned Netanyahu of the potential dangers in a call on Saturday night at a time of “heightened emotion.”
“The president had a discussion about trying to slow things down, think through things,” a US official said.
The hope was that “in the light of day” Israel would see it had had a “spectacular success” against Iran’s attack, added the official.
Washington’s calculus looks to be that Iran also got what it wanted, with a show of force in retaliation for Israel’s strike in Damascus earlier this month that killed a key Iranian general, but with minimal damage.
“However, I fear the status quo will be short-lived,” said James Ryan, Executive Director of the Middle East Research and Information Project, warning of a “dangerous spiral.”
“I expect Biden to attempt to restrain Israeli responses, but Netanyahu has already shown a willingness to test any kind of limit Biden wishes to impose,” he added.
“It’s all very cynical now, unfortunately.”
Biden’s options for restraining Israel are likely to be limited at this stage to tough language in private and making threats in public.
“They’ve got themselves into a corner in many ways,” said Clarke.
“I think they’ve overplayed their hand a little bit by saying the administration is considering cutting off weapons to the Israelis. It’s never going to happen — I think it’s an empty threat, especially in an election year.”
The US presidential election in November comes as Biden faces domestic political pressure on all sides when it comes to Israel.
Trump has led a chorus of Republicans accusing Biden of being weak on the issue — while young and left-wing voters in particular are angered by his failure to stop the bloodshed in Gaza.
Netanyahu, facing his own political and legal issues at home, would now be able to use the Iran attacks to “paper over the very real rifts that exist” with Washington on Gaza, said Clarke.
“If he can drag this out until November, he’s hoping for a Trump victory” when he would have “carte blanche” to act however he wanted in the region, said Clarke.
Another possibility, however, is that Netanyahu may decide to “accede to American urgings” for now on Iran — but with a cost, said Paul Salem, President and CEO of the Middle East Institute.
“Politically, I think they can cash in on saying, ‘okay, America, we won’t do anything, we’re being good. But in exchange, you have to, you know, give us more of a free hand in Gaza,’” he said.

The ‘super year’ of elections has been super bad for incumbents as voters punish them in droves

Updated 16 sec ago

November 18, 2024 04:02

The ‘super year’ of elections has been super bad for incumbents as voters punish them in droves

Around 70 countries accounting for about half the world’s population went to the polls this year
Except for a few, notably in Mexico, the parties in power were either toppled or suffered diminished advantages

Updated 16 sec ago

November 18, 2024 04:02

BANGKOK: Whether on the left or the right, regardless of how long they’ve been in power, sitting governments around the world have been drubbed this year by disgruntled voters in what has been called the “super year” for elections.
Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election was just the latest in a long line of losses for incumbent parties in 2024, with people in some 70 countries accounting for about half the world’s population going to the polls.
Issues driving voter discontent have varied widely, though there has been almost universal malaise since the COVID-19 pandemic as people and businesses struggle to get back on their feet while facing stubbornly high prices, cash-strapped governments and a surge in migration.
“There’s an overall sense of frustration with political elites, viewing them as out of touch, that cuts across ideological lines,” said Richard Wike, director of global attitudes research at the Pew Research Center.
He noted that a Pew poll of 24 countries found that the appeal of democracy itself was slipping as voters reported increasing economic distress and a sense that no political faction truly represents them.
“Lots of factors are driving this,” Wike said, “but certainly feelings about the economy and inflation are a big factor.”
Since the pandemic hit in 2020, incumbents have been removed from office in 40 of 54 elections in Western democracies, said Steven Levitsky, a political scientist at Harvard University, revealing “a huge incumbent disadvantage.”
In Britain, the right-of-center Conservatives suffered their worst result since 1832 in July’s election, which returned the center-left Labour Party to power after 14 years.
But just across the English Channel, the far right rocked the governing parties of France and Germany, the European Union’s biggest and most powerful members, in June elections for the parliament of the 27-nation bloc.
The results pushed French President Emmanuel Macron to call a parliamentary election in hope of stemming a far-right surge at home. The anti-immigration National Rally party won the first round, but alliances and tactical voting knocked it down to third place in the second round, producing a fragile government atop a divided legislature.
In Asia, a group of South Korean liberal opposition parties, led by the Democratic Party, defeated the ruling conservative People Power Party in April’s parliamentary elections.
India’s Narendra Modi, meanwhile, had been widely expected to easily sweep to a third straight term in June but instead voters turned away from his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party in droves, costing it its majority in parliament, though it was able to remain in power with the help of allies.
Likewise, Japanese voters in October punished the Liberal Democratic Party, which has governed the country nearly without interruption since 1955.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will stay in power, but the greater-than-expected loss ended the LDP’s one-sided rule, giving the opposition a chance to achieve policy changes long opposed by the conservatives.
“If you were to ask me to explain Japan in a vacuum, that’s not too difficult,” said Paul Nadeau, an adjunct assistant professor at Temple University’s Japan campus in Tokyo.
“Voters were punishing an incumbent party for a corruption scandal, and this gave them a chance to express a lot more frustrations that they already had.”
Globally, however, it’s harder to draw conclusions.
“This is pretty consistent across different situations, different countries, different elections — incumbents are getting a crack on the shins,” he said. “And I don’t have any good big picture explanations for why that is.”
Rob Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester, said inflation has been a major driver of “the greatest wave of anti-incumbent voting ever seen” — though the reasons behind the backlash may also be “broader and more diffuse.”
“It could be something directly to do with the long-term effects of the COVID pandemic — a big wave of ill health, disrupted education, disrupted workplace experiences and so forth making people less happy everywhere, and they are taking it out on governments,” he said.
“A kind of electoral long COVID.”
In South Africa, high unemployment and inequality helped drive a dramatic loss of support for the African National Congress, which had governed for three decades since the end of the apartheid system of white minority rule. The party once led by Nelson Mandela lost its parliamentary majority in May’s election and was forced to go into coalition with opposition parties.
Other elections in Africa presented a mixed picture, said Alex Vines, director of the African Program at the international affairs think tank Chatham House, partially clouded by countries with authoritarian leaders whose reelections were not in doubt, like Rwanda’s long-serving President Paul Kagame who got 99 percent of the vote.
In African countries with strong democratic institutions, however, the pattern of incumbents being punished holds, Vines said.
“The countries with stronger institutions — South Africa, Senegal, Botswana — have witnessed either a government of national unity or change of party of government,” he said.
In Botswana, voters unexpectedly ejected a party that had ruled for 58 years since independence from Britain in an October election.
Vines said that across the continent, “you’ve got this electorate now who have no memory of decolonization or the end of apartheid and so have different priorities, who are also feeling the cost-of-living pressures.”
In Latin America, one major country stands out for bucking the anti-incumbent wave – Mexico.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador, limited to a single term, selected Claudia Sheinbaum, a member of his party, to succeed him. Sheinbaum easily won the presidency in June’s election.
Wike noted that Mexico is one of the few countries in Pew’s survey where voters reported satisfaction with economic conditions.
Some newcomers to office have already found that the honeymoon following their victories has been short, as people have rapidly turned on them.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has seen his approval ratings plummet from a jaded electorate that wants lower prices and better public services — but is deeply skeptical of politicians’ intention and ability to deliver change.
Ford, of the University of Manchester, said it’s a problem for democracy when voters, whose task is to hold governments to account, are so quick to pass judgment.
“If voters are the electoral equivalent of a hanging judge, putting politicians to the gallows whether they be guilty or innocent, then what incentive is there for governments to try?” he asked. “The angels and the devils get chucked out alike, but being an angel is harder.”
Trump first came to power as a challenger in the 2016 election, and then lost as an incumbent in the 2020 election to Joe Biden. This year, he defeated Biden’s vice president, Kamala Harris, who stepped in late in the race when the president unexpectedly dropped out.
Trump’s win is one of the conservative populist movement’s highest-profile triumphs. But another icon of the cause, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, saw his own party suffer its worst showing in decades in this year’s European Union election, demonstrating that no movement is safe from backlash.
Nadeau, of Temple University, suggested that perhaps analysts had previously misunderstood global electoral trends — parsing them as ideological shifts — “when all along it was actually an anti-incumbent mood.”
“Maybe it has always been anti-incumbent, and we were just misdiagnosing it,” he said.

Trump’s pick for top defense post paid woman after sex assault allegation but denies wrongdoing, his lawyer says

Updated 18 November 2024

November 18, 2024 03:17

Trump’s pick for top defense post paid woman after sex assault allegation but denies wrongdoing, his lawyer says

Lawyer Timothy Parlator tries to turn the tables on Hegseth's accuser by portraying her as the "aggressor"
While admitting that the Fox News host paid the accuser, the lawyer accused the woman of blackmail and extortion

Updated 18 November 2024

November 18, 2024 03:17

WASHINGTON: Pete Hegseth, President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for defense secretary, paid a woman who accused him of sexual assault to head off the threat of a baseless lawsuit, according to Hegseth’s lawyer.
Hegseth was accused of sexual assault in 2017 after a speaking appearance at a Republican women’s event in Monterey, California, according to a statement released by the city. No charges were filed.
His lawyer, Timothy Parlatore, told The Associated Press on Sunday that the sexual encounter was consensual and that the woman who made the accusation to police several days later was the “aggressor.” That assertion has not been confirmed in the statement released by the city.
Parlatore said a payment was made to the woman as part of a confidential settlement a few years after the police investigation because Hegseth was concerned that she was prepared to file a lawsuit that he feared could have resulted in him being fired from Fox News, where he was a popular host. Parlatore would not reveal the amount of the payment.
“He was falsely accused and my position is that he was the victim of blackmail,” Parlatore said, calling it a case of “successful extortion.”
The Washington Post earlier reported details of the payment. The newspaper also reported it obtained a copy of a memo sent to Trump’s transition team this past week by a woman who said she is a friend of the accuser that details the sexual assault allegations.
Trump’s transition team had no immediate comment Sunday on the memo.
The person who reported the assault — whose name, age and sex were not released — had bruises on the right thigh, according to the city’s statement. No weapons were involved in the encounter, the person told police.
The incident occurred sometime between 11:59 p.m. on Oct. 7 and 7 a.m. the following morning, according to the city’s statement.
Hegseth was in Monterey at the time to address the California Federation of Republican Women during a banquet dinner held at the group’s biennial convention, according to social media posts and promotional materials from the time.
Monterey officials said they were withholding further details included in the police report because it included analysis and conclusions by law enforcement officials that are exempt from release under state public records law.
At the time of the 2017 accusations, Hegseth, now 44, was going through a divorce with his second wife, with whom he has three children. She filed for divorce after he had a child with a Fox News producer who is now his wife, according to court records and social media posts by Hegseth. His first marriage ended in 2009, also after infidelity by Hegseth, according to court records.
After the accusations first surfaced last week, Steven Cheung, a spokesman for the Trump transition who has been named White House communications director, issued a statement saying the president-elect is “nominating high-caliber and extremely qualified candidates to serve in his Administration.”
“Mr. Hegseth has vigorously denied any and all accusations, and no charges were filed. We look forward to his confirmation as United States Secretary of Defense so he can get started on Day One to Make America Safe and Great Again,” Cheung said.

Topics: Pete Hegseth Trump's appointees

Bangladesh to seek extradition of ousted Sheikh Hasina: govt

Updated 18 November 2024

Reuters

November 18, 2024 02:46

Bangladesh to seek extradition of ousted Sheikh Hasina: govt

Hasina has been summoned to appear in court in Dhaka on Monday to face charges of “massacres, killings, and crimes against humanity,” but she remains in exile in India

Updated 18 November 2024

Reuters

November 18, 2024 02:46

DHAKA: Bangladesh will seek the extradition of ousted former prime minister Sheikh Hasina who was toppled in a revolution in August and fled to India, interim leader Muhammad Yunus said.
Dhaka has already issued an arrest warrant for 77-year-old Hasina — last seen arriving in neighboring India after fleeing by helicopter as crowds stormed her palace.
Hasina has been summoned to appear in court in Dhaka on Monday to face charges of “massacres, killings, and crimes against humanity,” but she remains in exile in India.
Yunus said his administration was focused on ensuring those guilty of cracking down on the protests to oust Hasina faced justice.
Several of her former government ministers, who were detained and held in custody, are expected in court to face similar charges.
“We have already taken initiatives to try those responsible for enforced disappearances, murders, and the mass killings during the July-August uprising,” Yunus said on Sunday.
The 84-year-old Nobel Peace Prize winner was appointed to lead the government as “chief adviser” on August 9, days after the end of Hasina’s 15 years of iron-fisted rule.
Yunus, in a speech to the nation marking 100 days in power since a student-led revolution, said he had spoken to Karim Khan, chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court.
“We will seek the extradition of the ousted autocrat from India,” Yunus said, referring to Hasina.
Earlier this month, Bangladesh said it would request an Interpol “red notice” alert for fugitive leaders of Hasina’s regime.
Red notices issued by the global police body alert law enforcement agencies worldwide about fugitives.
India is a member of Interpol, but the red notice does not mean New Delhi must hand Hasina over.
Member countries can “apply their own laws in deciding whether to arrest a person,” according to the group, which organizes police cooperation between 196 member countries.
Yunus, a microfinance pioneer, is leading a temporary administration to tackle what he has called the “extremely tough” challenge of restoring democratic institutions in the South Asian nation of around 170 million people.
He also begged the country’s “patience” to prepare for the much-awaited poll, vowing an election commission would be formed “within a few days.”
But Yunus said he could not give a timeframe for the elections, saying it was dependent on a raft of reforms.
“I promise that we will hold the much-anticipated election once the necessary and essential reforms are complete,” he said in the broadcast.
“I request your patience until then. We aim to build an electoral system that will endure for decades. For this, we need some time.”
Crisis Group analyst Thomas Kean has called the challenge facing Yunus “monumental,” warning of that “cracks are emerging in the fragile alliance” that pushed him into power.
“For now, Yunus and his colleagues have widespread support, but popular expectations are double-edged,” the thinktank said in a report on Thursday.
“If the interim administration falters in making reforms, the outcome is likely to be an early election with little progress; in the worst-case scenario, the military could assume power.”

Topics: Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina Muhammad Yunus

Senegal ruling party claims ‘large victory’ in elections

Updated 18 November 2024

AFP

November 18, 2024 01:26

Senegal ruling party claims ‘large victory’ in elections

President Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s Pastef party had emerged as the vote winner in most of the first polling stations giving their provisional results, according to media reports, beating the two main opposition parties

Updated 18 November 2024

AFP

November 18, 2024 01:26

DAKAR: Senegal’s ruling party claimed it had won a comfortable victory in Sunday’s legislative elections, paving the way for it to deliver an ambitious reform agenda eight months after sweeping to power.
Voting took place peacefully across the West African country, where the governing Pastef party said 90 to 95 percent of ballots had already been counted.
“I pay homage to the Senegalese people for the large victory that it has given to Pastef,” government spokesman Amadou Moustapha Ndieck Sarre told TFM television.
President Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s Pastef party had emerged as the vote winner in most of the first polling stations giving their provisional results, according to media reports, beating the two main opposition parties.
Faye secured victory in March pledging economic transformation, social justice and a fight against corruption — raising hopes among a largely youthful population facing high inflation and widespread unemployment.
But an opposition-led parliament hampered the government’s first months in power, prompting Faye to dissolve the chamber in September and call snap elections as soon as the constitution allowed him to do so.
“I hope that Pastef will win the elections to gain a majority so that they can better carry out their mandate,” said Pascal Goudiaby, a 56-year-old voter in Dakar.
“The priority is unemployment, young people are facing so much unemployment,” he said.
Faye appointed his firebrand mentor Ousmane Sonko as prime minister. Sonko’s own bid to run for president had been blocked following a three-year deadly standoff with the former authorities.
The pair promised a leftist pan-African agenda, vowing to diversify political and economic partnerships, review hydrocarbon and fishing contracts and re-establish Senegal’s sovereignty, which they claimed had been sold abroad.
Mademba Ndiaye, a 20-year-old student, was voting for the first time.
“It’s one of the only ways we can really have an impact on society, and I think that if we don’t vote, we couldn’t really complain about what happens in society afterwards,” he said.
Various actors reported that the turnout on Sunday was typically lower than in the presidential election.
Senegal’s roughly 7.3 million registered voters were called to elect 165 MPs for five-year terms.
Voters have historically confirmed their presidential choice during parliamentary elections, say analysts.
“I think that whoever you gave your confidence to in the presidential election, you need to renew your confidence in him so that he can achieve what he started,” said 56-year-old voter Toure Aby.
“We want life to be less expensive for the Senegalese,” she added. “Everything’s expensive: water, electricity, food.”
Voters continued a long democratic tradition in Senegal, widely seen as a stable outlier in a coup-plagued region.
Faye and Sonko both called for calm as they cast their ballots.
“Democracy is expressed in peace and stability, and I believe that in a democracy there is no room for violence,” Sonko said in the southern city of Ziguinchor.
Reminiscent of his years as a fiery opposition leader, he had called for vengeance after attacks against his supporters, but later urged restraint.
Clashes were only sporadic in the run-up to the vote. Although some agreements have been reached between coalitions, the opposition remains fragmented.
Former president Macky Sall is leading an opposition grouping from abroad called Takku Wallu Senegal. On Sunday, it claimed the vote was marred by “massive fraud organized by Pastef,” without providing details.
Sall left power in April after triggering one of the worst crises in decades with a last-minute postponement of the presidential election.
Former prime minister and presidential runner-up Amadou Ba and Dakar Mayor Barthelemy Dias are also heading coalitions.
The opposition has accused the new government of inaction, amateurism and a desire to settle scores with the previous administration.
Unemployment stands at more than 20 percent and scores of people continue to risk their lives every month attempting to reach Europe by boat.
The government said an audit of public finances revealed a wider budget deficit than previously announced.
Moody’s downgraded Senegal’s credit rating and placed the country under observation.
The new authorities have lowered the price of household goods such as rice, oil and sugar and launched a series of reviews.
They also launched justice system reform and presented an ambitious 25-year development plan aimed at transforming the economy and public policy.

Topics: Senegal parliamentary elections Bassirou Diomaye Faye

Ukraine strikes on Russia with US missiles could lead to world war, Russian lawmakers say

Updated 18 November 2024

Reuters

November 18, 2024 01:07

Ukraine strikes on Russia with US missiles could lead to world war, Russian lawmakers say

“This is a very big step toward the start of World War Three,” lawmaker Vladimir Dzhabarov says
Poland, defending Ukraine, said missiles against Russia is “a language Putin understands”

Updated 18 November 2024

Reuters

November 18, 2024 01:07

MOSCOW: Washington’s decision to let Kyiv strike deep into Russia with long-range US missiles escalates the conflict in Ukraine and could lead to World War III, senior Russian lawmakers said on Sunday.
Two US officials and a source familiar with the decision revealed the significant reversal of Washington’s policy in the Ukraine-Russia conflict earlier on Sunday.
“The West has decided on such a level of escalation that it could end with the Ukrainian statehood in complete ruins by morning,” Andrei Klishas, a senior member of the Federation Council, Russia’s upper chamber of parliament, said on the Telegram messaging app.
Vladimir Dzhabarov, first deputy head of the Russian upper house’s international affairs committee, said that Moscow’s response will be immediate.
“This is a very big step toward the start of World War Three,” the TASS state news agency quoted Dzhabarov as saying.
President Vladimir Putin said in September that the West would be fighting Russia directly if it allowed Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Western-made long-range missiles, a move he said would alter the nature and scope of the conflict.
Russia would be forced to take what Putin called “appropriate decisions” based on the new threats.
Leonid Slutsky, chairman of the State Duma lower house’s foreign affairs committee, said that US authorization of strikes by Kyiv on Russia with US ATACMS tactical missiles would lead to the toughest response, Russian news agencies reported.
“Strikes with US missiles deep into Russian regions will inevitably entail a serious escalation, which threatens to lead to much more serious consequences,” TASS news agency quoted Slutsky as saying.

NATO member Poland welcomed Biden's decision, saying missiles against Russia is “a language Putin understands.”

“With the entry into the war of North Korea troops and (Sunday’s) massive attack of Russian missiles, President Biden responded in a language that (Russian President) V. Putin understands,” Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski posted on X.
“The victim of aggression has the right to defend himself,” Sikorski added in his post. “Strength deters, weakness provokes.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has long pushed for authorization from Washington to use the powerful Army Tactical Missile System, known by its initials ATACMS, to hit targets inside Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that approval would mean that NATO was “at war” with his country — a threat he has made previously when Ukraine’s Western backers have escalated their military assistance to Kyiv.

Topics: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Biden in ‘very tough spot’ trying to stop Middle East escalation

Biden in ‘very tough spot’ trying to stop Middle East escalation

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Bangladesh to seek extradition of ousted Sheikh Hasina: govt

Bangladesh to seek extradition of ousted Sheikh Hasina: govt

Bangladesh extends armed forces judicial powers

Rivals of ousted Bangladesh leader Sheikh Hasina foil her party’s attempt to hold a rally

Senegal ruling party claims ‘large victory’ in elections

Senegal ruling party claims ‘large victory’ in elections

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Ukraine strikes on Russia with US missiles could lead to world war, Russian lawmakers say

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Biden in ‘very tough spot’ trying to stop Middle East escalation

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