US braces for retaliation after attack on Iran consulate — even as it says it wasn’t involved

US braces for retaliation after attack on Iran consulate — even as it says it wasn’t involved
In this photo released by the official Syrian state news agency SANA, emergency service workers clear the rubble at a destroyed building struck by Israeli jets in Damascus, Syria, Monday, April 1, 2024. (AP)
Short Url
Updated 04 April 2024
Follow

US braces for retaliation after attack on Iran consulate — even as it says it wasn’t involved

US braces for retaliation after attack on Iran consulate — even as it says it wasn’t involved
  • Multiple arms of Iran’s government served notice that they would hold the United States accountable for the fiery attack

WASHINGTON: Shortly after an airstrike widely attributed to Israel destroyed an Iranian consulate building in Syria, the United States had an urgent message for Iran: We had nothing to do with it.
But that may not be enough for the US to avoid retaliation targeting its forces in the region. A top US commander warned on Wednesday of danger to American troops.
And if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent broadening of targeted strikes on adversaries around the region to include Iranian security operatives and leaders deepens regional hostilities, analysts say, it’s not clear the United States can avoid being pulled into deeper regional conflict as well.
The Biden administration insists it had no advance knowledge of the airstrike Monday. But the United States is closely tied to Israel’s military regardless. The US remains Israel’s indispensable ally and unstinting supplier of weapons, responsible for some 70 percent of Israeli weapon imports and an estimated 15 percent of Israel’s defense budget. That includes providing the kind of advanced aircraft and munitions that appear to have been employed in the attack.
Israel hasn’t acknowledged a role in the airstrike, but Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said Tuesday that the US has assessed Israel was responsible.
Multiple arms of Iran’s government served notice that they would hold the United States accountable for the fiery attack. The strike, in the Syrian capital of Damascus, killed senior commanders of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for Syria and Lebanon, an officer of the powerful Iran-allied Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, and others.
American forces in Syria and Iraq already are frequent targets when Iran and its regional allies seek retaliation for strikes by Israelis, notes Charles Lister, the Syria program director for the Middle East Institute.
“What the Iranians have always done for years when they have felt most aggressively targeted by Israel is not to hit back at Israelis, but Americans,” seeing them as soft targets in the region, Lister said.
On Wednesday in Washington, the top US Air Force commander for the Middle East, Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, said Iran’s assertion that the US bears responsibility for Israeli actions could bring an end to a pause in militia attacks on US forces that has lasted since early February.
He said he sees no specific threat to US troops right now, but “I am concerned because of the Iranian rhetoric talking about the US, that there could be a risk to our forces.”
US officials have recorded more than 150 attacks by Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria on US forces at bases in those countries since war between Hamas and Israel began on Oct. 7.
One, in late January, killed three US service members and injured dozens more at a base in Jordan.
In retaliation, the US launched a massive air assault, hitting more than 85 targets at seven locations in Iraq and Syria, including command and control headquarters, drone and ammunition storage sites and other facilities connected to the militias or the IRGC’s Quds Force, the Guard’s expeditionary unit that handles Tehran’s relationship with and arming of regional militias. There have been no publicly reported attacks on US troops in the region since that response.
Grynkewich told reporters the US is watching and listening carefully to what Iran is saying and doing to evaluate how Tehran might respond.
Analysts and diplomats cite a range of ways Iran could retaliate.
Since Oct. 7, Iran and the regional militias allied to it in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen have followed a strategy of calibrated attacks that stop short of triggering an all-out conflict that could subject Iran’s homeland forces or Hezbollah to full-blown war with Israel or the United States.
Beyond strikes on US troops, possibilities for Iranian retaliation could include a limited missile strike directly from Iranian soil to Israel, Lister said. That would reciprocate for Israel’s strike on what under international law was sovereign Iranian soil, at the Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus.
A concentrated attack on a US position abroad on the scale of the 1983 attack on the US Embassy in Beirut is possible, but seems unlikely given the scale of US retaliation that would draw, analysts say. Iran also could escalate an existing effort to kill Trump-era officials behind the United States’ 2020 drone killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani.
How far any other retaliation and potential escalation goes may depend on two things out of US control: Whether Iran wants to keep regional hostilities at their current level or escalate, and whether Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s far-right government does.
Sina Toossi, a fellow at the Center for International Policy, said analysts in Iran are among those trying to read Netanyahu’s mind since the attack, struggling to choose between two competing narratives for Israel’s objective.
“One perceives Israel’s actions as a deliberate provocation of war that Iran should respond to with restraint,” Toossi wrote in the US-based think tank’s journal. “The other suggests that Israel is capitalizing on Iran’s typically restrained responses,” and that failing to respond in kind will only embolden Israel.
Ultimately, Iran’s sense that it is already winning its strategic goals as the Hamas-Israel war continues — elevating the Palestinian cause and costing Israel friends globally — may go the furthest in persuading Iranian leaders not to risk open warfare with Israel or US in whatever response they make to Monday’s airstrike, some analysts and diplomats say.
Shira Efron, a director of policy research at the US-based Israel Policy Forum, rejected suggestions that Netanyahu was actively trying with attacks like the one in Damascus to draw the US into a potentially decisive conflict alongside Israel against their common rivals, at least for now.
“First, the risk of escalation has increased. No doubt,” Efron said.
“I don’t think Netanyahu is interested in full-blown war though,” she said. “And whereas in the past Israel was thought to be interested in drawing the US into a greater conflict, even if the desire still exists in some circles, it is not more than wishful thinking at the moment.”
US President Joe Biden is facing pressure from the other direction.
So far he’s resisting calls from growing numbers of Democratic lawmakers and voters to limit the flow of American arms to Israel as a way to press Netanyahu to ease Israeli military killing of civilians in Gaza and to heed other US appeals.
As criticism has grown of US military support of Israel’s war in Gaza, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller has increasingly pointed to Israel’s longer-term need for weapons — to defend itself against Iran and Iranian-allied Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The US is ″always concerned about anything that would be escalatory,” Miller said after the attack in Damascus. “It has been one of the goals of this administration since October 7th to keep the conflict from spreading, recognizing that Israel has the right to defend itself from adversaries that are sworn to its destruction.”
Israel for years has hit at Iranian proxies and their sites in the region, knocking back their ability to build strength and cause trouble for Israelis.
Since the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas, one of a network of Iran-aligned militias in the region, that shattered Israel’s sense of security, Netanyahu’s government has increasingly added Iranian security operatives and leaders to target lists in the region, Lister notes.
The US military already has deepened engagement from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea since the Hamas-Israel war opened — deploying aircraft carriers to the region to discourage rear-guard attacks against Israel, opening airstrikes to quell attacks on shipping by Iran-allied Houthis in Yemen.
It is also moving to build a pier off Gaza to try to get more aid to Palestinian civilians despite obstacles that include Israel’s restrictions and attacks on aid deliveries.


Canada reports first case of bird flu in a person

Canada reports first case of bird flu in a person
Updated 21 sec ago
Follow

Canada reports first case of bird flu in a person

Canada reports first case of bird flu in a person
  • The person is receiving treatment in a children’s hospital for H5 avian flu
  • The source of contagion and any possible contacts are being investigated
MONTREAL: A teenager in British Columbia has become the first person in Canada to test positive for bird flu, authorities said Saturday.
This person is receiving treatment in a children’s hospital for H5 avian flu, the provincial health department said.
The source of contagion and any possible contacts are being investigated.
Officials said the infection probably came from a bird or animal.
“This is a rare event,” British Columbia Health Officer Bonnie Henry said.
“We are conducting a thorough investigation to fully understand the source of exposure here in B.C.”
Bird flu is most commonly found in wild birds and poultry, but has more recently been detected in mammals, with an outbreak in cattle seen across the United States this year.
It can occasionally infect humans through close contact or contaminated environments.
Scientists have voiced concern about the growing number of mammals becoming infected by bird flu, even if cases in humans remain rare.
They fear a high rate of transmission could facilitate a mutation of the virus, which could enable it to be passed from one human to another.
In September officials said a person in Missouri became the first in the United States to test positive for bird flu without a known exposure to infected animals.
All previous bird flu cases in the United States have been among farmworkers, including the very first, in 2022.
In the decades since H5 has been found in humans, there have been rare cases where an animal source cannot be identified.
But there has so far not been evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission, which would significantly increase the threat level.

Trump completes swing state sweep by taking Arizona

Trump completes swing state sweep by taking Arizona
Updated 16 min 23 sec ago
Follow

Trump completes swing state sweep by taking Arizona

Trump completes swing state sweep by taking Arizona
  • CNN and NBC projected Donald Trump had obtained Arizona’s 11 electoral votes
  • Scale and strength of Trump’s comeback sent shockwaves through the defeated Democratic Party

WASHINGTON: Donald Trump won the state of Arizona in this week’s US presidential election, US TV networks projected on Saturday, completing the Republican’s sweep of all seven swing states.
After four days of counting in the southwest state with a large Hispanic population, CNN and NBC projected Trump had obtained its 11 electoral votes as he defeated Vice President Kamala Harris.
Outgoing President Joe Biden scored a narrow but crucial victory in Arizona in 2020 that condemned Trump to defeat after his first term in office.
The scale and strength of Trump’s comeback, which also saw the real estate tycoon win the popular vote by a margin of around four million votes, has sent shockwaves through the defeated Democratic Party.
The Republicans have already regained control of the Senate and look well set to retain a majority in the House of Representatives thanks to support from white working class voters and a large share of Hispanics.
CNN has called Republican victories for 213 seats in the House, with 218 needed for a majority in the lower chamber.
The networks’ figures show Democrats on 205 seats, although senior party figures are still hoping they can pull off a slim victory that would significantly curtail Trump’s powers.
NBC sees the Republicans with 212 seats so far, and 204 for the Democrats.
The other six swing states won by Trump in the presidential race are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada and Georgia.
The latest good news for Trump came as the White House said Biden would meet with the president-elect at the White House on Wednesday.
Trump — who never conceded his 2020 loss — sealed a remarkable comeback to the presidency in the November 5 vote, cementing what is set to be more than a decade of US politics dominated by his hard-line right-wing stance.
This type of meeting between the outgoing and incoming presidents was considered customary, but Trump did not invite Biden for one after making unsubstantiated election fraud claims that culminated in the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot.
Trump also broke with precedent by skipping Biden’s inauguration, but the White House has said the Democratic president will attend the upcoming ceremony.
Biden’s meeting with Trump will take place in the Oval Office, the White House said Saturday, with the clock ticking down to the ex-president’s return to power.
Trump, the 78-year-old ex-reality TV star, won wider margins than before, despite a criminal conviction, two impeachments while in office and warnings from his former chief of staff that he is a fascist.
Exit polls showed that voters’ top concerns remained the economy and inflation that spiked under Biden in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.


Ukraine commander says challenges increase in war with Russia

Ukraine commander says challenges increase in war with Russia
Updated 22 min 54 sec ago
Follow

Ukraine commander says challenges increase in war with Russia

Ukraine commander says challenges increase in war with Russia
  • Russian advances focus on two cities in Donetsk region
  • North Korean troops prepare to join Russia’s campaign

KYIV: Ukraine’s top military commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said on Saturday that Ukraine faced increasing difficulties in its fight against Moscow’s invasion as Russian forces advance and North Korean troops prepare to join the Kremlin’s campaign.
Syrskyi, relating comments he made to a top US general, said outnumbered Ukrainian forces faced Russian attacks in key sectors of the more than 2-1/2-year-old war with Russia.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a nightly address that Ukraine’s military command was focused on defending around the town of Kurakhove — a target of Russia’s advances along with Pokrovsk, a logistical hub to the north.
He decried strikes on civilian targets and urged European countries to provide more air defense systems.
Syrskyi, writing on Facebook, said he told General Christopher Cavoli, who heads the US European Command: “The situation remains challenging and shows signs of escalation.
“The enemy, leveraging its numerical advantage, is continuing offensive actions and is focusing its main efforts on the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions,” Syrskyi said.
Russian forces, intent on capturing Ukraine’s eastern Donbas province, made up of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, have been regularly capturing new villages as they move toward Pokrovsk.
Ukraine’s general staff, in a late evening report on Saturday, said 40 armed clashes had occurred around villages near Kurakhove.
Both Ukrainian and Russian military bloggers on Friday said Russian forces sought to encircle the city.
The United States, Western European countries and Ukraine say that North Korea, which entered a mutual defense pact with Russia in June, has sent troops to its ally.
“We have numerous reports of North Korean soldiers preparing to participate in combat operations alongside Russian Forces,” Syrskyi said.
Zelensky has said 11,000 North Korean soldiers have arrived in Russia, specifically in the southern Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces staged a large incursion in August.
Both Zelensky and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said this week that North Korean soldiers had already been involved in combat there.
The United States has been by far the biggest contributor of aid and arms to Ukraine, though Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election has raised questions about future policy.
Zelensky was among the first leaders to congratulate Trump after his victory on Tuesday. The Ukrainian president described his telephone conversation with Trump as “wonderful” and said contacts would continue.


Frustrated Americans await the economic changes they voted for with Trump

Frustrated Americans await the economic changes they voted for with Trump
Updated 10 November 2024
Follow

Frustrated Americans await the economic changes they voted for with Trump

Frustrated Americans await the economic changes they voted for with Trump
  • In returning Trump to power, tens of millions of Americans expressed their confidence that he can restore the low prices and economic stability they recall from his first term
  • Inflation has since plummeted and is nearly back to normal. Yet Americans are frustrated over still-high prices

WASHINGTON: Fed up with high prices and unimpressed with an economy that by just about any measure is a healthy one, Americans demanded change when they voted for president.
They could get it.
President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to topple many of the Biden administration’s economic policies. Trump campaigned on promises to impose huge tariffs on foreign goods, slash taxes on individuals and businesses and deport millions of undocumented immigrants working in the United States.
With their votes, tens of millions of Americans expressed their confidence that Trump can restore the low prices and economic stability they recall from his first term — at least until the COVID-19 recession of 2020 paralyzed the economy and then a powerful recovery sent inflation soaring. Inflation has since plummeted and is nearly back to normal. Yet Americans are frustrated over still-high prices.
“His track record proved to be, on balance, positive, and people look back now and think: ‘Oh, OK. Let’s try that again,’ ” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a former White House economic adviser, director of the Congressional Budget Office and now president of the conservative American Action Forum think tank.
Since Election Day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has skyrocketed more than 1,700 points, largely on expectations that tax cuts and a broad loosening of regulations will accelerate economic growth and swell corporate profits.
Maybe they will. Yet many economists warn that Trump’s plans are likely to worsen the inflation he’s vowed to eradicate, drive up the federal debt and eventually slow growth.
Trump policies could boost inflation
The Peterson Institute for International Economics, a leading think tank, has estimated that Trump’s policies would slash the US gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services — by between $1.5 trillion and $6.4 trillion through 2028. Peterson also estimated that Trump’s proposals would drive prices sharply higher within two years: Inflation, which would otherwise come in at 1.9 percent in 2026, would instead jump to between 6 percent and 9.3 percent if Trump’s policies were enacted in full.
Last month, 23 Nobel-winning economists signed a letter warning that a Trump administration “will lead to higher prices, larger deficits, and greater inequality.”
“Among the most important determinants of economic success,” they wrote, “are the rule of law and economic and political certainty, and Trump threatens all of these.’’
Trump is inheriting an economy that, despite frustratingly high prices, looks fundamentally strong. Growth came in at a healthy 2.8 percent annual rate from July through September. Unemployment is 4.1 percent — quite low by historic standards.
Among wealthy countries, only Spain will experience faster growth this year, according to the International Monetary Fund’s forecast. The United States is the economic “envy of the world,” the Economist magazine recently declared.
The Federal Reserve is so confident that US inflation is slowing toward its 2 percent target that it cut its benchmark rate in September and again this week.
Americans are deeply unhappy with prices
Consumers, though, still bear the scars of the inflationary surge. Prices on average are still 19 percent higher than they were before inflation began to accelerate in 2021. Grocery bills and rent hikes are still causing hardships, especially for lower-income households. Though inflation-adjusted hourly wages have risen for more than two years, they’re still below where they were before President Joe Biden took office.
Voters took their frustration to the polls. According to AP VoteCast, a sweeping survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide, 3 in 10 voters said their family was “falling behind’’ financially, up from 2 in 10 in 2020. About 9 in 10 voters were at least somewhat worried about the cost of groceries, 8 in 10 about the cost of health care, housing or gasoline.
“I don’t think it’s either deep or complicated,’’ Holtz-Eakin said. “The real problem is the Biden-Harris team made people worse off, and they were very angry about it, and we saw the result.’’
The irony is that mainstream economists fear Trump’s remedies will make price levels worse, not better.
Tariffs are a tax on consumers
The centerpiece of Trump’s economic agenda is taxing imports. It’s an approach that he asserts will shrink America’s trade deficits and force other countries to grant concessions to the United States. In his first term, he increased tariffs on Chinese goods, and he’s now promised much more of the same: Trump wants to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 60 percent and impose a “universal’’ tax of 10 percent or 20 percent on all other imports.
Trump insists that other countries pay tariffs. In fact, American companies pay them — and then typically pass along their higher costs to their customers via higher prices. Which is why taxing imports is normally inflationary. Worse, other countries usually retaliate with tariffs on American goods, thereby hurting US exporters.
Kimberly Clausing and Mary Lovely of the Peterson Institute have calculated that Trump’s proposed 60 percent tax on Chinese imports and his high-end 20 percent tariff on everything else would impose an after-tax loss on a typical American household of $2,600 annually.
The economic damage would likely spread globally. Researchers at Capital Economics have calculated that a 10 percent US tariff would hurt Mexico hardest. Germany and China would also suffer. All of that depends, of course, on whether he actually does what he said during the campaign.
Deportations would rattle the US job market
Trump has threatened to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, potentially undermining one of the factors that allowed the United States to tame inflation without falling into recession.
The Congressional Budget Office reported that net immigration — arrivals minus departures — reached 3.3 million in 2023. Employers needed the new arrivals. After the economy rebounded from the pandemic recession, companies struggled to hire enough workers, especially because so many native-born baby boomers were retiring.
Immigrants filled the gap. Over the past four years, 73 percent of those who entered the labor force were foreign born.
Economists Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson of the Brookings Institution’s Hamilton Project found that by raising the supply of workers, the influx of immigrants allowed the United States to generate jobs without overheating and accelerating inflation.
The Peterson Institute calculates that the deportation of all 8.3 million immigrants believed to be working illegally in the United States would slash US GDP by $5.1 trillion and raise inflation by 9.1 percentage points by 2028
Big tax cuts could swell the federal deficit
Trump has proposed extending 2017 tax cuts for individuals that were set to expire after 2025 and restoring tax breaks for businesses that were being reduced. He’s also called for ending taxes on Social Security benefits, overtime pay and tips as well as further reducing the corporate income tax rate for US manufacturers.
The University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates that Trump’s tax policies would i ncrease budget deficits by $5.8 trillion over 10 years. Even if the tax cuts generated enough growth to recoup some of the lost tax revenue, Penn Wharton calculated, deficits would still increase by more than $4.1 trillion from 2025 through 2034.
The federal budget is already out of balance. An aging population has required increased spending on Social Security and Medicare. And past tax cuts have shrunk government revenue.
Holtz-Eakin said he worries that Trump has little appetite for taking the steps — cuts to Social Security and Medicare, tax increases or some combination — needed to bring the federal budget meaningfully closer to balance.
“It’s not going to happen,” Holtz-Eakin said.


Biden, Trump to meet at White House ahead of historic return

Biden, Trump to meet at White House ahead of historic return
Updated 10 November 2024
Follow

Biden, Trump to meet at White House ahead of historic return

Biden, Trump to meet at White House ahead of historic return
  • Biden had promised an orderly transfer of power back to the Republican he beat in elections just four years ago
  • When Biden beat Trump in the 2020 election, the Republican refused to concede defeat, claming falsely that he was cheated

WASHINGTON: President Joe Biden will meet with President-elect Donald Trump at the White House on Wednesday after the US leader pledged an orderly transfer of power back to the Republican he beat in elections just four years ago.
Trump — who never conceded his 2020 loss — sealed a remarkable comeback to the presidency in the November 5 vote, cementing what is set to be more than a decade of US politics dominated by his hard-line right-wing stance.
This type of meeting between the outgoing and incoming presidents was considered customary, but Trump did not invite Biden for one after making unsubstantiated election fraud claims that culminated in the January 6 Capitol riot.
Trump also broke with precedent by skipping Biden’s January 20, 2021 inauguration, but the White House has said the president will attend the ceremony.
The Democrat’s meeting with Trump will take place in the Oval Office, the White House said Saturday, with the clock ticking down to the ex-president’s return to power.
Biden in January will join the tiny club of US presidents to return power to their White House predecessor — with the one previous instance coming when president Benjamin Harrison handed back to Grover Cleveland in the 19th century.
The 78-year-old ex-reality TV star won wider margins than before, despite a criminal conviction, two impeachments while in office and warnings from his former chief of staff that he is a “fascist.”
Exit polls showed that voters’ top concerns remained the economy and inflation that spiked under Biden in the wake of the Covid pandemic.
Biden, who dropped out of the race in July over concerns about his ability to continue at the age of 81, called Trump on Wednesday to congratulate him after his election win.

Democrats have been pointing fingers over who is to blame for Harris’s decisive loss, with Biden himself coming in for much of the blame.
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told The New York Times that “had the president gotten out sooner, there may have been other candidates in the race.”
“Because the president endorsed Kamala Harris immediately, that really made it almost impossible to have a primary at that time. If it had been much earlier, it would have been different,” added Pelosi, who is reported to have played a key role in persuading Biden to step aside.
As the Democrats weigh what went wrong, Trump has begun to assemble his second administration by naming campaign manager Susie Wiles to serve as his White House chief of staff.
She is the first woman to be named to the high-profile role and the Republican’s first appointment to his incoming administration.
The other frontrunners for a place in the Trump 2.0 administration reflect the significant changes it is likely to implement.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a leading figure in the anti-vaccine movement for whom Trump has pledged a “big role” in health care, told NBC News on Wednesday that “I’m not going to take away anybody’s vaccines.”
The world’s richest man, Elon Musk, could also be in line for a job auditing government waste after the right-wing SpaceX, Tesla and X boss enthusiastically backed Trump.
Trump is expected to axe many of Biden’s signature policies. He returns to the White House as a climate change denier, poised to take apart Biden’s green policies with his pledge to “drill, baby, drill” for oil.
The president-elect announced Saturday that his inaugural committee will be led by close Trump associate Steve Witkoff and ex-senator Kelly Loeffler.