Why Jordan is braced for challenging security scenarios

Analysis Why Jordan is braced for challenging security scenarios
Jordanian Special forces take part in a drill during the opening ceremony of the eighth Annual Warrior Competition held at the King Abdullah II Special Operations Training Center (KASOTC) in Amman. (AFP/File)
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Updated 27 March 2024
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Why Jordan is braced for challenging security scenarios

Why Jordan is braced for challenging security scenarios
  • Earlier this month, Jordan scrambled jets after detecting ‘suspicious aerial activity’ along border with Syria
  • Hashemite kingdom has stepped up its no-tolerance policy for cross-border drug smuggling in recent years

LONDON: Amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Jordan is looking to bolster its defenses against possible incursions by Iran-backed militias on its borders.

The new approach follows a series of attacks against US military bases across the Gulf, culminating in a drone assault on a logistics support site of the Jordanian Defense Network near the Syrian border on Jan. 28, which left three American soldiers dead and more than 40 others injured.

In a press briefing, Sabrina Singh, Pentagon deputy press secretary, said that the Iran-backed Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah militia was responsible for the attack on Tower 22.

“We know that Iran is behind it. And certainly, as we’ve said before, Iran continues to arm and equip these groups to launch these attacks, and we will certainly hold them responsible,” she said, noting that eight of the 40 injured had to be evacuated for treatment.

Jordan’s government “condemned the terrorist attack that targeted an outpost on the border with Syria, killing three US soldiers,” in a statement issued via the Petra news agency.




A Royal Jordanian Air Force UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter at Azraq Royal Jordanian Air Base. (US Air Force)

Although the deaths at the Jordan-based US output were the first American military casualties since the start of the Israeli military offensive on Hamas-run Gaza in October last year, for Jordanians, the attack was anything but out of the ordinary.

With Iraq plagued by instability and sectarianism and Syria mired in a decade-long civil war, Jordan’s northern border region has become a breeding ground for militias.

Baraa Shiban, an associate fellow at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute, says that those monitoring the region have been seeing “cross-border attacks for some time.”

He told Arab News: “If you are in that part of the world, the activity of these groups is known about. Press attention on them has increased since the American soldiers were killed, but the number of attacks has been largely constant.

“Those attacks are typically a series of skirmishes that sometimes escalate and sometimes die down, but they are always simmering in the background.”




Jordanian soldiers patrol along the border with Syria to prevent trafficking. (AFP)

Nor are the skirmishes simply the result of efforts to attack military installations, with the militias having turned Jordan into a major transit route for one of their key funding efforts, namely the trade in the multi-billion-dollar Syrian-made amphetamine Captagon.

“Jordan has become particularly concerned by the increase in drug-smuggling activities taking place across its borders,” Shiban said.

“These smuggling activities are essential for the groups if they are to fund their ongoing military assaults. If Jordan could successfully curb the activities, the groups would be starved of a major income stream that helps to keep them alive.”

The amounts involved are staggering: In December, Jordanian authorities seized 5 million pills and, with a single pill worth $12-25, a combined value of between $60-125 million.

Jordan has stepped up its no-tolerance policy for cross-border drug smuggling in recent years, last year announcing that it would use military force in Syria to curb drug trafficking across its borders.

In May 2023, Jordan carried out an airstrike in a village in Syria’s southern Sweida governorate, killing the so-called Captagon kingpin Merhi Al-Ramthan.

INNUMBERS

• 11m Estimated total population (2023)

• 31.42% Population below 14 years of age

• $102.8bn Real GDP (purchasing-power parity) (2021)

January’s drone attack marked out Kataib Hezbollah as the most prominent of a number of militias engaged in these cross-border activities, and making clear, through its principle of “velayat-e faqih” — or “Guardianship of the Jurist” — where it was receiving its directions.

David Rigoulet-Roze, a researcher at the French Institute for Strategic Analysis, has said that “velayat-e faqih” means that Kataib Hezbollah recognizes Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as its supreme commander.

Describing the group as “undoubtedly the most influential” in a collective known as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, Rigoulet-Roze said that it was this banding together with Harakat Hezbollah Al-Nujaba and Hashd Al-Shaabi factions that made for the more potent threat.

Interestingly, the latter of these emerged in 2014 to support a Washington-led anti-Daesh coalition, contributing to Daesh’s territorial defeat in Iraq in 2017.




Tower 22  is operated by US troops as part of an international coalition against the Daesh group. (Planet Labs/AFP)

“There was an objective alliance between the coalition, the Americans, and Hashd militias against Daesh. The two fought on the same side. After 2017, these same groups found their Iranian — and therefore anti-American — DNA,” Rigoulet-Roze told France24.

Against the backdrop of Israel’s war on Gaza, however, Jordanian officials are increasingly concerned the skirmishes may evolve into something less sustainable for reasons connected to its own security.

This is unsurprising: One of Kataib Hezbollah’s main goals is to oust the US from the Middle East. Jordan not only houses some 3,000 US troops but in 2021 signed a new defense agreement with the Americans.

The Jordanian agreement was approved by royal decree, allowing US aircraft, personnel and vehicles free entry in exchange for $425 million in annual military aid.

The deal committed Jordan to provide logistical and other support for the estimated 3,000 US troops in the country.

Several members of Jordan’s parliament, especially members of the opposition Islamic Action Front, condemned the agreement, saying it gave away too many prerogatives to the US.

Jordan is one the biggest recipients of US aid, yet the subject of American troops and the bases they use in the country is a politically sensitive one.




Soldiers standing guard during the Eager Lion multi-national military exercise. (AFP/File)

Acknowledging the divisions over the defense agreement, Jawad Anani, Jordan’s former foreign minister, said there was “no chance” the deal with the US would be canceled given the present situation.

“There is a sense of resentment and displeasure (with the US), but there’s no way for Jordan to renege on its agreement,” he said in an interview. “Jordanians are equally unhappy with the UK, Germany, and France; we cannot break our relations with everyone.”

Jordan’s perception of threat from anti-US militias soared on March 18 after radar systems detected suspicious aerial activity from an unknown source along the Syrian border.

Witnesses told Reuters news agency that the incident resulted in jets being scrambled above the skies of the border city of Irbid, with an air force spokesperson noting a squadron had been sent to ensure airspace was not threatened.

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy gave warning that the deadly drone attack of Jan. 28 marked something of a turning point in what had become the norm.

It described the incident as “a serious warning for Jordan’s national security for several interrelated reasons,” highlighting it as the first incident carried out by non-state actors against Jordanian territory and sovereignty, and against its American allies.

Shiban, RUSI associate fellow, casts doubt on the Washington Institute’s claim that the deadly attack on Tower 22 marked an escalation in the assault by Iranian proxies, saying that it was important to properly understand the groups involved.




Royal Jordanian Air Force AH-1 Cobra attack helicopter fires during a military exercise. (AFP)

“Many of these groups are erratic. When it comes to the day-to-day operations, they tend to clash with one another and with border security. In fact, who it is they are fighting can really depend on the day,” Shiban said.

“Yes, in general, they are united by a desire to push the US presence from the region, but this is much down to the fact that as long as the US has a presence, they are threatened.”

While not playing down the significance of Iranian influence on the activities of these groups, Shiban said that the militias that the Jordanian authorities fretted about were not completely under the sway of the government in Tehran.

Rather, he said there needed to be recognition that part of the problem was that there were a number of these militias that were now operating “semi-independently.”

As to what could be done to resolve this vexing issue, Shiban said Jordan has shown willingness to deal with the Syrian regime, noting that it is from Syria that most of these groups launch their attacks.




Jordan has stepped up its no-tolerance policy for cross-border drug smuggling in recent years. (AFP)

That said, he believes the Jordanians ultimately “don’t think Syria has the will or capacity to do anything about it.”

Amid calls for the US to provide Patriot missile defense systems, Saud Al-Sharafat, a former Jordanian brigadier-general, said that Jordan is “in an explosive region,” with fears that Iran and its well-armed militias could enter the Gaza conflict.

“Regardless of whether there were drones or missiles that were intercepted or fired or not, the risk of Jordan being caught in the crossfire can only increase if the war (in Gaza) continues and expands,” he said.


‘Killed, maimed, frozen to death’: UN Security Council meets to discuss plight of Gaza’s kids

‘Killed, maimed, frozen to death’: UN Security Council meets to discuss plight of Gaza’s kids
Updated 17 sec ago
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‘Killed, maimed, frozen to death’: UN Security Council meets to discuss plight of Gaza’s kids

‘Killed, maimed, frozen to death’: UN Security Council meets to discuss plight of Gaza’s kids
  • UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher tells council members of urgent need for donations to meet $4bn funding target for 2025
  • The growing struggles of civilians in the West Bank must also not be ignored, he adds

NEW YORK CITY: The UN’s humanitarian chief on Thursday called for urgent action to protect children in Gaza and ensure their well-being amid the fragile ceasefire and ongoing humanitarian crisis in the territory.

Speaking during a meeting of the Security Council to discuss “the plight of children in the Gaza Strip,” Tom Fletcher emphasized the scale of suffering among Palestinian youngsters there as he urged the international community to ensure the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas holds, and to scale up deliveries of humanitarian aid.

Fletcher said the ceasefire deal, brokered by Egypt, Qatar and the US, has brought a temporary reprieve for civilians, and is allowing Israeli hostages and detained Palestinians to be reunited with their families.

The truce has also enabled a surge in the amount of life-saving humanitarian assistance entering Gaza, providing a glimmer of hope for the millions of residents suffering as a result of the conflict.

“We can save more lives if all parties continue to honor the deal,” Fletcher said, thanking the mediators for their tireless efforts to facilitate the agreement and address the operational challenges in its implementation.

The 15 months of war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza have taken a profound toll on the children in the territory, the suffering of whom reached catastrophic proportions during that time, he added.

Fletcher painted a harrowing picture of the devastating effects of the conflict on the children of Gaza. Thousands lost their lives, an estimated 17,000 have been left without their families, and many more were injured or are suffering from malnutrition and psychological trauma.

He gave examples of the cruel conditions under which young people have been forced to lived, cited instances of unborn children perishing with their mothers, and detailed the desperate plight of more than 150,000 pregnant women and new mothers who are in urgent need of healthcare.

“The children of Gaza have been killed, starved, maimed, orphaned and separated from their families,” Fletcher said as he condemned the violence and deprivation. “A generation has been traumatized.”

Aside from the physical harm, children have endured deep psychological scars, with UNICEF estimating that 1 million youngsters are in need of mental health support for anxiety, depression and suicidal thoughts.

“Many have faced sexual violence,” Fletcher said. “Girls, who have endured the additional indignity of no access to menstrual care, have been left exposed and vulnerable.”

The war has had devastating effects on education as well, with schools destroyed and many children denied access to learning, he added.

But despite the overwhelming challenges, the international humanitarian community has made significant strides in the days since the ceasefire came into effect on Sunday, Fletcher said.

He highlighted the increased flow of aid into Gaza, including food, medical supplies and fuel, which has enabled critical services to resume or continue operating.

With the UN Relief and Works Agency at the forefront of the efforts, humanitarian agencies have scaled up their operations, delivering emergency shelter to protect people from the winter weather, food and life-saving medical care.

“We are getting supplies to designated emergency shelters and distribution centers across the Gaza Strip,” Fletcher said.

“We are delivering food parcels, distributing fuel to ensure that healthcare and water systems can function, and reopening bakeries to help meet basic nutritional needs.”

While these efforts are vital, Fletcher stressed that they will only be able continue with sustained funding and unimpeded access.

He appealed to UN member states to help replenish humanitarian stockpiles and called for greater involvement of the private sector to meet the needs of the 2 million residents of Gaza.

Fletcher stressed the urgent need for donations to help meet the $4.07 billion target of the UN’s 2025 Flash Appeal, to help address the needs of 3 million people in Gaza and the West Bank. Almost 90 percent of the total is needed for the humanitarian response in Gaza alone.

But while much of the international attention has focused on the Strip, Fletcher also warned the Security Council about the deteriorating situation in the West Bank, where violence and displacement have reached unprecedented levels since October 2023.

He described attacks by Israeli settlers on Palestinian villages, and ongoing military operations, particularly in Jenin, that have displaced thousands and caused significant damage to infrastructure.

“The situation in the West Bank must not be ignored,” Fletcher said. “We need to ensure that humanitarian aid and protection reach those in need, and that international law is respected.”

He once again urged council members to ensure the ceasefire holds, and that the flow of aid continues to those in need, in both Gaza and the West Bank. He called for the protection of Palestinian civilians, the release of all hostages and detainees, and unimpeded access for humanitarian workers.

“The children of Gaza are not collateral damage,” Fletcher said. “They are as deserving as children everywhere of security, education and hope. We must be there for them now, when they need us most.”


Gaza hostage families conflicted over those not on release list

Gaza hostage families conflicted over those not on release list
Updated 24 min 2 sec ago
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Gaza hostage families conflicted over those not on release list

Gaza hostage families conflicted over those not on release list

TEL AVIV: The families of Israeli hostages held in Gaza are trapped in limbo, two days before the second prisoner exchange of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, with many having relatives both on the list to be freed and those who aren’t.
Among them is Silvia Cunio, an Argentine-Israeli from the Nir Oz kibbutz community. She has two sons in captivity, one of whom was taken along with his partner Arbel Yehud.
She is on the list — but the Cunio brothers, David and Ariel, are not.
They are among the 91 hostages taken captive during Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack and still held in the Gaza Strip. Of that number, 34 are dead according to the Israeli military.
The ceasefire’s 42-day first phase began on Sunday with the release of three women hostages. A total of 33 captives are to be exchanged during the initial phase in return for around 1,900 Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.
Standing in front of the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem, Cunio demanded that the ceasefire deal continue beyond the first phase to completion so she could see her sons again.
“I came here to say that I continue to fight for my children... to demand that they stop the war and don’t stop fighting for my children,” she said, wearing a T-shirt with their image on it.
Cunio presented herself as an untrammelled optimist, saying that her sons “will come back in good health. That is my hope and it is what keeps me going.”
Whenever she appears on TV, Cunio addresses her sons directly, just in case they might hear her.
“David, my darling, Ariel... I am here, I am fighting, I am doing everything I can. We love you. Be strong. We are here waiting for you.”
Another hostage relative, Sharon Sharabi, has two brothers Eli and Yossi in Gaza. Eli is presumed alive. The Israeli military said early last year that Yossi was dead.
As a man over 50, Eli Sharabi is on the list of 33 to be freed, alongside women, children and hostages who are ill or injured. The release of the remaining 61 people taken by Palestinian militants is dependent on further negotiations.
“As far as we know, Eli is alive. We have not received any statement from the security forces or the (military) confirming that Eli is no longer alive. So we want to maintain this optimism and pray that we will see him on his feet very soon,” said Sharabi.
Moved by the possibility, he allowed himself to imagine a reunion between his nearly octogenarian mother and his brother.
Yet, within moments, anxiety intruded.
If his brother Eli returns, Sharon Sharabi will have to tell him that his wife and two daughters were killed on October 7, 2023, and that their brother Yossi died in captivity.
Yossi and Eli were taken captive from Beeri, a kibbutz community where Eli’s wife and teenage daughters were found dead in their home.
Itzik Horn, 72, also an Argentine-Israeli, has similar contrasting emotions. He hopes for the release of his son Yair, 46, who is on the list of 33 because of his diabetes.
But there is also the pain of his other son, Eitan, 38, remaining in Gaza.
“They cut me in half. This is an impossible situation. One son might be released, and the other one isn’t,” Horn said.
Eitan was visiting his older brother in Nir Oz on October 7, when militants took the two of them hostage.
The kibbutz, less than three kilometers (two miles) from the Gaza border, was hit extremely hard during the Hamas attack. More than 30 people were killed in Nir Oz and 70 taken hostage, with 25 still in the Gaza Strip.
Horn was angry, insisting that “everyone has to return, including the bodies.”
He admitted that dark humor helped him cope with the pain.
“Yair inherited his diabetes from me and he was always mad at me (for it). Now, if he’s freed first because of his illness, he’ll be able to thank me,” he joked.
Asked what he would do if, after the first phase of the ceasefire the war resumed, Horn said: “I’m going to burn the country down... because that’s like signing their death sentence.”


UN says 653 aid trucks entered Gaza on Thursday

UN says 653 aid trucks entered Gaza on Thursday
Updated 24 January 2025
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UN says 653 aid trucks entered Gaza on Thursday

UN says 653 aid trucks entered Gaza on Thursday

UNITED NATIONS: The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said 653 aid trucks entered the Gaza Strip on Thursday, the fifth day of a ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian militants Hamas.
OCHA cited information received from Israeli authorities and the guarantors for the ceasefire agreement — the United States, Egypt and Qatar.


Gazans prepare tent camps for families returning to north

Gazans prepare tent camps for families returning to north
Updated 24 January 2025
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Gazans prepare tent camps for families returning to north

Gazans prepare tent camps for families returning to north

GAZA CITY: Palestinians in northern Gaza prepared tent encampments for displaced families on Thursday, two days before they were expected to return to their home areas under the timeline of a ceasefire deal agreed between Israel and Hamas.

On open ground surrounded by blown-out buildings, a group of men began putting up rows of white tents to receive families who are planning to return north on Saturday when Hamas is due to release a second batch of hostages in return for dozens of Palestinians jailed by Israel.

Many of the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians expected to head back to the northern Gaza Strip will return to homes in ruins after a 15-month Israeli military offensive that has laid waste to the enclave and killed more than 47,000 Gazans.

In October, Israeli forces returned to areas of the north in a major anti-Hamas operation focused on the Jabalia refugee camp near Gaza City and Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahiya towns, clearing the area of its inhabitants and razing most of its buildings.

“Is this the tent that we dreamed of? This will have to fit 10 people. This tent is for my children who are coming from the south. Really, is this adequate space?” asked Wael Jundiya as he prepared a tent for his children, who will return from where they had been sheltering in the Mawasi coastal area of the south.

“On Saturday, people will come from the south and flood Gaza (City). Where will they go? This camp will fit 100, 200 people. There will be 1.5 million coming from the south,” Jundiya told Reuters.

Hamas published a statement on Thursday saying the return of the displaced families would begin after Saturday’s exchange was complete and once Israeli forces had pulled out from the coastal road to the north. 

At least four hostages are expected to be handed over to Israel on Saturday.

Highlighting concerns by many Palestinians over how strong the phased ceasefire is, an Israeli tank shelling killed two Gazans in Rafah in the south of the enclave, the local civil emergency service said.


Gaza ceasefire ‘wouldn’t have happened without us,’ Trump tells WEF

Gaza ceasefire ‘wouldn’t have happened without us,’ Trump tells WEF
Updated 24 January 2025
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Gaza ceasefire ‘wouldn’t have happened without us,’ Trump tells WEF

Gaza ceasefire ‘wouldn’t have happened without us,’ Trump tells WEF
  • The US president touted his administration’s role in brokering the Israel-Hamas hostage deal
  • He also welcomed Saudi Arabia’s $600 billion investment, while calling for lower oil prices

DAVOS: In a virtual address at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, US President Donald Trump highlighted his administration’s pivotal role in brokering the ceasefire in Gaza and securing the release of hostages.

“Before even taking office, my team negotiated a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, which wouldn’t have happened without us,” Trump said in his first major speech on the world stage since returning to the White House.

“Earlier this week, the hostages began to return to their families. They are returning, and it’s a beautiful sight, and they’ll be coming in more and more.”

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, mediated by the US, Qatar, and Egypt, came into effect on Jan. 19, ending 15-months of fighting which has left more than 47,500 Palestinians dead, according to Gaza’s health ministry.

The deal was structured in multiple phases, the first involving a six-week ceasefire, during which Hamas agreed to release 33 hostages abducted during the Oct. 7, 2023 attack.

In exchange, Israel committed to releasing 90 Palestinian prisoners to the West Bank and allowing hundreds of aid trucks carrying food and fuel into the Gaza Strip through border crossings in Israel and Egypt.

The negotiation process was marked by significant diplomatic efforts, with both the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration playing instrumental roles.

Brett McGurk, a Middle East negotiator for the Biden administration, collaborated closely with Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East. This bipartisan cooperation was driven by a mutual desire to resolve the conflict prior to the presidential inauguration.

Trump had issued stern warnings, stating that failure to release the hostages, including seven American citizens, before his inauguration would result in severe consequences.

The US president, who began his second term on Monday, also used his WEF speech to welcome Saudi Arabia’s $600 billion investment, and said that he hoped there would be room for it to grow to $1 trillion and lower oil prices.

“I’ll be asking the Crown Prince (Mohammed bin Salman), who’s a fantastic guy, to round it up to around $1 trillion. I think they’ll do that,” Trump said.

He did, however, add: “I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil.” Four days into his presidency, Trump said he wants to lower global oil prices, interest rates and taxes, and warned they will face tariffs if they make their products abroad.

“I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately. And likewise, they should be dropping all over the world,” he said.

Some of his harshest criticism was reserved for traditional US allies Canada and the EU who he threatened again with new tariffs, while berating their import policies blaming them for the US’s trade goods deficit with these partners.

“One thing we’re going to be demanding is we’re going to be demanding respect from other nations. Canada. We have a tremendous deficit with Canada. We’re not going to have that anywhere,” he said.

Trump promised to reduce inflation with a mix of tariffs, deregulation and tax cuts along with his crackdown on illegal immigration and commitment to making the US a hub of artificial intelligence, cryptocurrencies and fossil fuels.

He also criticized levels of taxation in the EU.

“The US has the largest amount of oil and gas of any country on Earth, and we’re going to use it,” Trump said. “Not only will this reduce the cost of virtually all goods and services, it will make the US a manufacturing superpower.”

Declaring the US had entered the “golden age of America,” Trump highlighted the sweeping reforms of his administration, which he said were correcting the “disasters” left by his predecessor, Joe Biden.

Trump criticized Biden’s economic policies, saying: “His $8 trillion in wasteful deficit spending, energy restrictions, regulations, and hidden taxes resulted in the worst inflation crisis in modern history.”